Intrinsic value of Dycom Industries - DY

Previous Close

$85.06

  Intrinsic Value

$129.83

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+53%

  Value-price divergence*

-17%

Previous close

$85.06

 
Intrinsic value

$129.83

 
Up/down potential

+53%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-17%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of DY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.20
  18.20
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.79
  12.02
  11.31
  10.68
  10.11
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
Revenue, $m
  2,673
  3,159
  3,693
  4,272
  4,897
  5,566
  6,278
  7,032
  7,828
  8,664
  9,541
  10,457
  11,413
  12,409
  13,446
  14,524
  15,645
  16,810
  18,020
  19,278
  20,586
  21,946
  23,360
  24,831
  26,363
  27,959
  29,622
  31,356
  33,164
  35,052
  37,022
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,781
  3,245
  3,750
  4,293
  4,876
  5,495
  6,152
  6,845
  7,572
  8,335
  9,102
  9,934
  10,801
  11,703
  12,642
  13,617
  14,631
  15,685
  16,780
  17,918
  19,101
  20,332
  21,613
  22,947
  24,336
  25,783
  27,292
  28,866
  30,509
  32,224
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  182
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,442
  2,870
  3,336
  3,844
  4,389
  4,974
  5,596
  6,255
  6,951
  7,681
  8,446
  9,216
  10,051
  10,921
  11,826
  12,768
  13,746
  14,763
  15,821
  16,919
  18,061
  19,247
  20,482
  21,767
  23,104
  24,497
  25,948
  27,461
  29,040
  30,687
  32,406
Operating income, $m
  231
  289
  356
  429
  508
  592
  682
  777
  877
  983
  1,094
  1,241
  1,362
  1,488
  1,620
  1,756
  1,898
  2,046
  2,200
  2,359
  2,525
  2,698
  2,878
  3,065
  3,259
  3,462
  3,674
  3,894
  4,124
  4,365
  4,615
EBITDA, $m
  356
  410
  492
  581
  677
  780
  890
  1,007
  1,130
  1,259
  1,395
  1,537
  1,685
  1,839
  2,000
  2,167
  2,341
  2,521
  2,709
  2,904
  3,107
  3,318
  3,538
  3,767
  4,005
  4,253
  4,511
  4,781
  5,062
  5,356
  5,662
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  25
  32
  40
  49
  58
  68
  79
  90
  102
  115
  128
  142
  156
  171
  187
  203
  220
  238
  256
  275
  294
  315
  336
  358
  381
  406
  431
  457
  484
  512
Earnings before tax, $m
  206
  265
  324
  389
  459
  534
  613
  698
  787
  881
  979
  1,113
  1,220
  1,332
  1,448
  1,569
  1,695
  1,826
  1,962
  2,103
  2,251
  2,403
  2,563
  2,728
  2,901
  3,081
  3,268
  3,464
  3,668
  3,881
  4,103
Tax expense, $m
  77
  71
  88
  105
  124
  144
  166
  188
  213
  238
  264
  300
  329
  360
  391
  424
  458
  493
  530
  568
  608
  649
  692
  737
  783
  832
  882
  935
  990
  1,048
  1,108
Net income, $m
  129
  193
  237
  284
  335
  390
  448
  510
  575
  643
  715
  812
  891
  972
  1,057
  1,146
  1,237
  1,333
  1,432
  1,536
  1,643
  1,755
  1,871
  1,992
  2,118
  2,249
  2,386
  2,528
  2,677
  2,833
  2,995

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,720
  1,993
  2,330
  2,695
  3,090
  3,512
  3,961
  4,437
  4,939
  5,466
  6,019
  6,597
  7,200
  7,829
  8,483
  9,163
  9,871
  10,605
  11,369
  12,163
  12,988
  13,846
  14,738
  15,667
  16,633
  17,640
  18,689
  19,783
  20,924
  22,115
  23,358
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,686
  1,993
  2,330
  2,695
  3,090
  3,512
  3,961
  4,437
  4,939
  5,466
  6,019
  6,597
  7,200
  7,829
  8,483
  9,163
  9,871
  10,605
  11,369
  12,163
  12,988
  13,846
  14,738
  15,667
  16,633
  17,640
  18,689
  19,783
  20,924
  22,115
  23,358
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
Average production assets, $m
  438
  518
  606
  701
  803
  913
  1,030
  1,153
  1,284
  1,421
  1,565
  1,715
  1,872
  2,035
  2,205
  2,382
  2,566
  2,757
  2,955
  3,162
  3,376
  3,599
  3,831
  4,072
  4,324
  4,585
  4,858
  5,142
  5,439
  5,748
  6,072
Working capital, $m
  528
  600
  702
  812
  930
  1,058
  1,193
  1,336
  1,487
  1,646
  1,813
  1,987
  2,168
  2,358
  2,555
  2,760
  2,973
  3,194
  3,424
  3,663
  3,911
  4,170
  4,438
  4,718
  5,009
  5,312
  5,628
  5,958
  6,301
  6,660
  7,034
Total debt, $m
  719
  915
  1,145
  1,394
  1,663
  1,951
  2,257
  2,582
  2,924
  3,284
  3,661
  4,055
  4,467
  4,895
  5,341
  5,805
  6,288
  6,789
  7,310
  7,851
  8,414
  8,999
  9,607
  10,241
  10,900
  11,586
  12,302
  13,048
  13,826
  14,638
  15,486
Total liabilities, $m
  1,162
  1,359
  1,589
  1,838
  2,107
  2,395
  2,701
  3,026
  3,368
  3,728
  4,105
  4,499
  4,911
  5,339
  5,785
  6,249
  6,732
  7,233
  7,754
  8,295
  8,858
  9,443
  10,051
  10,685
  11,344
  12,030
  12,746
  13,492
  14,270
  15,082
  15,930
Total equity, $m
  557
  634
  741
  857
  982
  1,117
  1,260
  1,411
  1,571
  1,738
  1,914
  2,098
  2,290
  2,490
  2,698
  2,914
  3,139
  3,373
  3,615
  3,868
  4,130
  4,403
  4,687
  4,982
  5,289
  5,609
  5,943
  6,291
  6,654
  7,032
  7,428
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,719
  1,993
  2,330
  2,695
  3,089
  3,512
  3,961
  4,437
  4,939
  5,466
  6,019
  6,597
  7,201
  7,829
  8,483
  9,163
  9,871
  10,606
  11,369
  12,163
  12,988
  13,846
  14,738
  15,667
  16,633
  17,639
  18,689
  19,783
  20,924
  22,114
  23,358
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.291
  1.440
  1.550
  1.630
  1.690
  1.750
  1.790
  1.830
  1.860
  1.890
  1.910
  1.930
  1.950
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.030
  2.040
  2.040
  2.050
  2.060
  2.060
  2.070
  2.070
  2.070
  2.080
  2.080
  2.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.310
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  129
  193
  237
  284
  335
  390
  448
  510
  575
  643
  715
  812
  891
  972
  1,057
  1,146
  1,237
  1,333
  1,432
  1,536
  1,643
  1,755
  1,871
  1,992
  2,118
  2,249
  2,386
  2,528
  2,677
  2,833
  2,995
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  125
  120
  135
  152
  169
  188
  209
  230
  252
  276
  301
  296
  323
  351
  380
  411
  442
  475
  510
  545
  582
  621
  661
  702
  745
  791
  838
  887
  938
  991
  1,047
Funds from operations, $m
  227
  313
  372
  436
  504
  578
  656
  739
  827
  919
  1,016
  1,108
  1,213
  1,323
  1,437
  1,556
  1,680
  1,808
  1,942
  2,081
  2,225
  2,375
  2,531
  2,694
  2,863
  3,039
  3,223
  3,415
  3,615
  3,824
  4,042
Change in working capital, $m
  -34
  92
  101
  110
  119
  127
  135
  143
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  291
  303
  316
  329
  344
  359
  374
Cash from operations, $m
  261
  221
  271
  326
  386
  451
  521
  596
  676
  760
  849
  934
  1,032
  1,134
  1,240
  1,351
  1,467
  1,587
  1,712
  1,842
  1,977
  2,117
  2,263
  2,414
  2,572
  2,736
  2,907
  3,086
  3,272
  3,465
  3,668
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -76
  -89
  -104
  -121
  -138
  -157
  -178
  -199
  -221
  -245
  -270
  -296
  -323
  -351
  -380
  -411
  -442
  -475
  -510
  -545
  -582
  -621
  -661
  -702
  -745
  -791
  -838
  -887
  -938
  -991
New CAPEX, $m
  -186
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -102
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -297
  -310
  -323
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -333
  -156
  -176
  -199
  -223
  -248
  -274
  -302
  -329
  -358
  -389
  -420
  -453
  -486
  -521
  -557
  -595
  -633
  -674
  -716
  -759
  -805
  -853
  -902
  -953
  -1,007
  -1,064
  -1,122
  -1,184
  -1,248
  -1,314
Free cash flow, $m
  -72
  65
  94
  126
  162
  203
  247
  295
  346
  402
  460
  514
  579
  648
  720
  794
  872
  954
  1,038
  1,126
  1,217
  1,312
  1,410
  1,512
  1,619
  1,729
  1,844
  1,964
  2,088
  2,218
  2,353
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  309
  209
  229
  249
  269
  288
  306
  325
  342
  360
  377
  394
  411
  429
  446
  464
  482
  501
  521
  541
  563
  585
  609
  633
  659
  687
  716
  746
  778
  812
  848
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -93
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  84
  209
  229
  249
  269
  288
  306
  325
  342
  360
  377
  394
  411
  429
  446
  464
  482
  501
  521
  541
  563
  585
  609
  633
  659
  687
  716
  746
  778
  812
  848
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  275
  323
  375
  431
  491
  553
  619
  689
  761
  837
  908
  991
  1,076
  1,166
  1,258
  1,355
  1,455
  1,559
  1,667
  1,780
  1,897
  2,019
  2,146
  2,278
  2,416
  2,560
  2,710
  2,866
  3,030
  3,201
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -98
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -363
  -379
  -395
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  198
  216
  259
  306
  356
  410
  468
  529
  594
  662
  724
  799
  877
  958
  1,042
  1,130
  1,221
  1,316
  1,415
  1,517
  1,624
  1,735
  1,850
  1,970
  2,096
  2,226
  2,362
  2,504
  2,652
  2,806
Discount rate, %
 
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  186
  190
  211
  229
  244
  254
  261
  263
  260
  253
  239
  225
  209
  190
  170
  149
  128
  108
  89
  72
  57
  45
  34
  25
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dycom Industries, Inc. is a provider of specialty contracting services throughout the United States and in Canada. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides program management, engineering, construction, maintenance and installation services for telecommunications providers, underground facility locating services for various utilities, including telecommunications providers, and other construction and maintenance services for electric and gas utilities. The Company provides the labor, tools and equipment necessary to design, engineer, locate, maintain, expand, install and upgrade the telecommunications infrastructure of its customers. The Company also provides tower construction, lines and antenna installation, and foundation and equipment pad construction for wireless carriers, as well as equipment installation and material fabrication, and site testing services. The Company's subsidiaries include CertusView Technologies, LLC and Dycom Investments, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dycom Industries (DY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.7
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 32.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 80.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 126.8%
Total Debt to Equity 129.1%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 24.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
EBITDA Margin 13%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Operating Margin 8.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

DY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the DY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2673 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dycom Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Dycom Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our DY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for DY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dycom Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dycom Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of DY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $87 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for DY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Dycom Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dycom Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the DY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for DY are equal to 16.4%.

Life of production assets of 5.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dycom Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for DY is equal to 19%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $557 million for Dycom Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.92 million for Dycom Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dycom Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.

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Financial statements of DY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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