Intrinsic value of Electronic Arts Inc. - EA

Previous Close

$101.83

  Intrinsic Value

$155.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+53%

Previous close

$101.83

 
Intrinsic value

$155.91

 
Up/down potential

+53%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 30.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
Revenue, $m
  5,722
  6,322
  6,950
  7,607
  8,292
  9,005
  9,747
  10,519
  11,321
  12,155
  13,021
  13,921
  14,857
  15,830
  16,843
  17,896
  18,993
  20,136
  21,327
  22,570
  23,865
  25,218
  26,630
  28,106
  29,648
  31,260
  32,946
  34,711
  36,557
  38,490
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,774
  1,956
  2,146
  2,344
  2,551
  2,767
  2,991
  3,224
  3,467
  3,718
  3,935
  4,207
  4,490
  4,784
  5,090
  5,408
  5,740
  6,085
  6,445
  6,821
  7,212
  7,621
  8,048
  8,494
  8,960
  9,447
  9,957
  10,490
  11,048
  11,632
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  2,205
  2,254
  2,304
  2,354
  2,406
  2,459
  2,513
  2,568
  2,625
  2,683
  2,742
  2,802
  2,864
  2,927
  2,991
  3,057
  3,124
  3,193
  3,263
  3,335
  3,408
  3,483
  3,560
  3,638
  3,718
  3,800
  3,884
  3,969
  4,056
  4,146
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,979
  4,210
  4,450
  4,698
  4,957
  5,226
  5,504
  5,792
  6,092
  6,401
  6,677
  7,009
  7,354
  7,711
  8,081
  8,465
  8,864
  9,278
  9,708
  10,156
  10,620
  11,104
  11,608
  12,132
  12,678
  13,247
  13,841
  14,459
  15,104
  15,778
Operating income, $m
  1,742
  2,112
  2,501
  2,908
  3,335
  3,779
  4,243
  4,726
  5,230
  5,753
  6,344
  6,912
  7,504
  8,120
  8,762
  9,431
  10,129
  10,858
  11,619
  12,414
  13,245
  14,114
  15,023
  15,974
  16,970
  18,013
  19,106
  20,252
  21,453
  22,713
EBITDA, $m
  1,877
  2,257
  2,656
  3,073
  3,510
  3,966
  4,442
  4,937
  5,453
  5,990
  6,549
  7,131
  7,737
  8,368
  9,026
  9,712
  10,428
  11,175
  11,954
  12,769
  13,620
  14,510
  15,441
  16,416
  17,436
  18,505
  19,624
  20,797
  22,027
  23,317
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  54
  77
  102
  129
  156
  185
  214
  245
  278
  311
  346
  382
  420
  459
  500
  542
  586
  632
  679
  729
  781
  835
  892
  951
  1,012
  1,077
  1,144
  1,215
  1,288
  1,365
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,688
  2,035
  2,399
  2,780
  3,179
  3,595
  4,029
  4,481
  4,952
  5,442
  5,998
  6,530
  7,084
  7,661
  8,262
  8,889
  9,544
  10,227
  10,940
  11,685
  12,464
  13,279
  14,131
  15,023
  15,958
  16,936
  17,962
  19,037
  20,165
  21,347
Tax expense, $m
  456
  549
  648
  751
  858
  971
  1,088
  1,210
  1,337
  1,469
  1,620
  1,763
  1,913
  2,068
  2,231
  2,400
  2,577
  2,761
  2,954
  3,155
  3,365
  3,585
  3,815
  4,056
  4,309
  4,573
  4,850
  5,140
  5,444
  5,764
Net income, $m
  1,232
  1,485
  1,751
  2,029
  2,320
  2,624
  2,941
  3,271
  3,615
  3,973
  4,379
  4,767
  5,171
  5,592
  6,031
  6,489
  6,967
  7,465
  7,986
  8,530
  9,099
  9,693
  10,316
  10,967
  11,649
  12,364
  13,112
  13,897
  14,720
  15,583

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,379
  7,048
  7,748
  8,480
  9,244
  10,039
  10,866
  11,727
  12,621
  13,550
  14,516
  15,520
  16,563
  17,648
  18,777
  19,951
  21,174
  22,449
  23,776
  25,161
  26,606
  28,114
  29,688
  31,333
  33,052
  34,850
  36,730
  38,696
  40,755
  42,910
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,379
  7,048
  7,748
  8,480
  9,244
  10,039
  10,866
  11,727
  12,621
  13,550
  14,516
  15,520
  16,563
  17,648
  18,777
  19,951
  21,174
  22,449
  23,776
  25,161
  26,606
  28,114
  29,688
  31,333
  33,052
  34,850
  36,730
  38,696
  40,755
  42,910
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
Average production assets, $m
  1,511
  1,669
  1,835
  2,008
  2,189
  2,377
  2,573
  2,777
  2,989
  3,209
  3,437
  3,675
  3,922
  4,179
  4,446
  4,725
  5,014
  5,316
  5,630
  5,958
  6,300
  6,658
  7,030
  7,420
  7,827
  8,253
  8,698
  9,164
  9,651
  10,161
Working capital, $m
  -2,020
  -2,232
  -2,453
  -2,685
  -2,927
  -3,179
  -3,441
  -3,713
  -3,996
  -4,291
  -4,596
  -4,914
  -5,245
  -5,588
  -5,945
  -6,317
  -6,705
  -7,108
  -7,529
  -7,967
  -8,425
  -8,902
  -9,401
  -9,921
  -10,466
  -11,035
  -11,630
  -12,253
  -12,905
  -13,587
Total debt, $m
  1,430
  1,894
  2,380
  2,888
  3,418
  3,970
  4,544
  5,141
  5,762
  6,407
  7,077
  7,774
  8,498
  9,251
  10,034
  10,849
  11,698
  12,582
  13,504
  14,465
  15,467
  16,514
  17,607
  18,748
  19,941
  21,189
  22,493
  23,858
  25,287
  26,782
Total liabilities, $m
  4,427
  4,891
  5,377
  5,885
  6,415
  6,967
  7,541
  8,138
  8,759
  9,404
  10,074
  10,771
  11,495
  12,248
  13,031
  13,846
  14,695
  15,579
  16,501
  17,462
  18,464
  19,511
  20,604
  21,745
  22,938
  24,186
  25,490
  26,855
  28,284
  29,779
Total equity, $m
  1,952
  2,157
  2,371
  2,595
  2,829
  3,072
  3,325
  3,588
  3,862
  4,146
  4,442
  4,749
  5,068
  5,400
  5,746
  6,105
  6,479
  6,869
  7,276
  7,699
  8,141
  8,603
  9,085
  9,588
  10,114
  10,664
  11,239
  11,841
  12,471
  13,130
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,379
  7,048
  7,748
  8,480
  9,244
  10,039
  10,866
  11,726
  12,621
  13,550
  14,516
  15,520
  16,563
  17,648
  18,777
  19,951
  21,174
  22,448
  23,777
  25,161
  26,605
  28,114
  29,689
  31,333
  33,052
  34,850
  36,729
  38,696
  40,755
  42,909
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.730
  0.880
  1.000
  1.110
  1.210
  1.290
  1.370
  1.430
  1.490
  1.550
  1.590
  1.640
  1.680
  1.710
  1.750
  1.780
  1.810
  1.830
  1.860
  1.880
  1.900
  1.920
  1.940
  1.960
  1.970
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,232
  1,485
  1,751
  2,029
  2,320
  2,624
  2,941
  3,271
  3,615
  3,973
  4,379
  4,767
  5,171
  5,592
  6,031
  6,489
  6,967
  7,465
  7,986
  8,530
  9,099
  9,693
  10,316
  10,967
  11,649
  12,364
  13,112
  13,897
  14,720
  15,583
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  211
  223
  236
  205
  219
  233
  249
  265
  281
  298
  316
  335
  355
  375
  396
  418
  442
  466
  491
  518
  545
  574
  605
Funds from operations, $m
  1,368
  1,630
  1,906
  2,194
  2,496
  2,811
  3,139
  3,482
  3,838
  4,209
  4,583
  4,986
  5,405
  5,841
  6,296
  6,770
  7,265
  7,782
  8,321
  8,885
  9,474
  10,090
  10,734
  11,409
  12,115
  12,855
  13,630
  14,443
  15,295
  16,188
Change in working capital, $m
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -306
  -318
  -330
  -344
  -357
  -372
  -387
  -403
  -420
  -438
  -457
  -477
  -499
  -521
  -544
  -569
  -595
  -623
  -652
  -682
Cash from operations, $m
  1,569
  1,842
  2,127
  2,426
  2,738
  3,063
  3,401
  3,754
  4,121
  4,503
  4,889
  5,303
  5,735
  6,185
  6,653
  7,142
  7,653
  8,185
  8,742
  9,323
  9,931
  10,567
  11,233
  11,930
  12,659
  13,424
  14,225
  15,065
  15,946
  16,871
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -81
  -90
  -99
  -109
  -120
  -130
  -142
  -153
  -165
  -178
  -191
  -205
  -219
  -233
  -249
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -316
  -335
  -355
  -375
  -396
  -418
  -442
  -466
  -491
  -518
  -545
  -574
New CAPEX, $m
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -314
  -328
  -342
  -357
  -373
  -390
  -407
  -426
  -445
  -466
  -487
  -510
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -231
  -248
  -265
  -282
  -301
  -318
  -338
  -357
  -377
  -398
  -420
  -443
  -466
  -490
  -516
  -543
  -571
  -600
  -630
  -663
  -697
  -732
  -769
  -808
  -849
  -892
  -936
  -984
  -1,032
  -1,084
Free cash flow, $m
  1,339
  1,594
  1,862
  2,143
  2,437
  2,744
  3,064
  3,397
  3,744
  4,106
  4,469
  4,861
  5,269
  5,694
  6,137
  6,600
  7,082
  7,585
  8,111
  8,660
  9,234
  9,835
  10,464
  11,122
  11,811
  12,532
  13,289
  14,082
  14,914
  15,786
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  438
  464
  486
  508
  530
  552
  574
  597
  621
  645
  670
  697
  724
  753
  783
  815
  849
  884
  922
  961
  1,003
  1,046
  1,093
  1,142
  1,193
  1,247
  1,305
  1,365
  1,428
  1,495
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  438
  464
  486
  508
  530
  552
  574
  597
  621
  645
  670
  697
  724
  753
  783
  815
  849
  884
  922
  961
  1,003
  1,046
  1,093
  1,142
  1,193
  1,247
  1,305
  1,365
  1,428
  1,495
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,776
  2,058
  2,348
  2,651
  2,967
  3,296
  3,638
  3,994
  4,365
  4,750
  5,140
  5,558
  5,993
  6,447
  6,921
  7,415
  7,931
  8,469
  9,032
  9,621
  10,237
  10,882
  11,556
  12,263
  13,004
  13,780
  14,594
  15,447
  16,342
  17,281
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -284
  -296
  -307
  -319
  -332
  -345
  -359
  -374
  -390
  -406
  -424
  -442
  -461
  -482
  -503
  -526
  -550
  -575
  -602
  -630
  -659
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2,840
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  4,420
  1,853
  2,134
  2,427
  2,734
  3,053
  3,385
  3,731
  4,091
  4,466
  4,844
  5,251
  5,674
  6,115
  6,575
  7,055
  7,556
  8,079
  8,626
  9,197
  9,795
  10,420
  11,075
  11,760
  12,478
  13,230
  14,018
  14,845
  15,712
  16,622
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  4,237
  1,697
  1,857
  1,999
  2,119
  2,215
  2,287
  2,332
  2,350
  2,341
  2,300
  2,241
  2,157
  2,053
  1,930
  1,793
  1,644
  1,488
  1,328
  1,169
  1,013
  865
  726
  599
  485
  386
  301
  230
  172
  125
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Electronic Arts Inc. develops, markets, publishes and distributes games, content and services that can be played by consumers on a range of platforms, which include consoles, personal computers (PCs), mobile phones and tablets. The Company's games and services are based on a portfolio of intellectual property that includes established brands, such as FIFA, Madden NFL, Star Wars, Battlefield, the Sims and Need for Speed. The Company markets and sells its games and services through retail channels and through digital distribution channels. The Company's PC games and additional content can be downloaded directly through its Origin online platform, as well as through third-party online download stores. Its mobile, tablet and PC free-to-download games and additional content are available through third-party application storefronts, such as the Apple Application Store and Google Play.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Electronic Arts Inc. (EA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.4
Price to Sales 6.5
Price to Book 7.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 32.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 24.4%
Total Debt to Equity 24.4%
Interest Coverage 29
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Return On Total Capital 20.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Return On Equity 25.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.4%
EBITDA Margin 29.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
Operating Margin 25.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 25%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Net Profit Margin 20%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Effective Tax Rate 20.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5150 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Electronic Arts Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Electronic Arts Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Electronic Arts Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Electronic Arts Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 31.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2158 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Electronic Arts Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Electronic Arts Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EA are equal to 26.4%.

Life of production assets of 16.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Electronic Arts Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EA is equal to -35.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4595 million for Electronic Arts Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 299.555 million for Electronic Arts Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Electronic Arts Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $30.5 billion.

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