Intrinsic value of Electronic Arts - EA

Previous Close

$131.91

  Intrinsic Value

$126.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-4%

Previous close

$131.91

 
Intrinsic value

$126.98

 
Up/down potential

-4%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of EA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 40.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  5,339
  5,856
  6,395
  6,958
  7,543
  8,152
  8,785
  9,442
  10,126
  10,836
  11,574
  12,342
  13,140
  13,971
  14,836
  15,736
  16,675
  17,653
  18,674
  19,738
  20,850
  22,011
  23,225
  24,493
  25,819
  27,206
  28,658
  30,178
  31,769
  33,435
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,445
  1,569
  1,697
  1,832
  1,971
  2,117
  2,268
  2,424
  2,588
  2,757
  2,762
  2,945
  3,135
  3,334
  3,540
  3,755
  3,979
  4,212
  4,456
  4,710
  4,975
  5,252
  5,541
  5,844
  6,160
  6,492
  6,838
  7,200
  7,580
  7,978
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  2,395
  2,447
  2,501
  2,556
  2,612
  2,670
  2,729
  2,789
  2,850
  2,913
  2,977
  3,042
  3,109
  3,177
  3,247
  3,319
  3,392
  3,466
  3,543
  3,621
  3,700
  3,782
  3,865
  3,950
  4,037
  4,126
  4,216
  4,309
  4,404
  4,501
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,840
  4,016
  4,198
  4,388
  4,583
  4,787
  4,997
  5,213
  5,438
  5,670
  5,739
  5,987
  6,244
  6,511
  6,787
  7,074
  7,371
  7,678
  7,999
  8,331
  8,675
  9,034
  9,406
  9,794
  10,197
  10,618
  11,054
  11,509
  11,984
  12,479
Operating income, $m
  1,499
  1,840
  2,197
  2,570
  2,959
  3,365
  3,789
  4,229
  4,688
  5,166
  5,836
  6,355
  6,896
  7,460
  8,048
  8,663
  9,304
  9,975
  10,675
  11,408
  12,175
  12,978
  13,818
  14,699
  15,622
  16,589
  17,604
  18,668
  19,785
  20,956
EBITDA, $m
  1,910
  2,274
  2,656
  3,054
  3,470
  3,903
  4,354
  4,825
  5,314
  5,824
  6,356
  6,909
  7,486
  8,087
  8,715
  9,369
  10,053
  10,767
  11,514
  12,294
  13,111
  13,966
  14,861
  15,798
  16,781
  17,811
  18,890
  20,023
  21,211
  22,458
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  53
  74
  95
  117
  140
  163
  188
  214
  241
  269
  298
  328
  359
  392
  425
  461
  497
  536
  576
  617
  661
  706
  753
  803
  854
  908
  965
  1,024
  1,086
  1,151
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,446
  1,766
  2,102
  2,453
  2,820
  3,202
  3,600
  4,015
  4,447
  4,898
  5,538
  6,027
  6,537
  7,068
  7,623
  8,202
  8,807
  9,439
  10,100
  10,791
  11,514
  12,272
  13,065
  13,896
  14,767
  15,681
  16,639
  17,644
  18,698
  19,805
Tax expense, $m
  390
  477
  568
  662
  761
  865
  972
  1,084
  1,201
  1,322
  1,495
  1,627
  1,765
  1,908
  2,058
  2,215
  2,378
  2,548
  2,727
  2,914
  3,109
  3,313
  3,528
  3,752
  3,987
  4,234
  4,492
  4,764
  5,049
  5,347
Net income, $m
  1,055
  1,290
  1,535
  1,791
  2,058
  2,337
  2,628
  2,931
  3,247
  3,575
  4,043
  4,400
  4,772
  5,160
  5,565
  5,987
  6,429
  6,890
  7,373
  7,877
  8,405
  8,958
  9,537
  10,144
  10,780
  11,447
  12,146
  12,880
  13,650
  14,458

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,172
  6,770
  7,394
  8,044
  8,720
  9,424
  10,156
  10,916
  11,706
  12,527
  13,381
  14,268
  15,191
  16,151
  17,151
  18,192
  19,277
  20,408
  21,588
  22,819
  24,104
  25,447
  26,849
  28,315
  29,849
  31,452
  33,131
  34,887
  36,727
  38,653
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,172
  6,770
  7,394
  8,044
  8,720
  9,424
  10,156
  10,916
  11,706
  12,527
  13,381
  14,268
  15,191
  16,151
  17,151
  18,192
  19,277
  20,408
  21,588
  22,819
  24,104
  25,447
  26,849
  28,315
  29,849
  31,452
  33,131
  34,887
  36,727
  38,653
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
Average production assets, $m
  2,397
  2,629
  2,872
  3,124
  3,387
  3,660
  3,944
  4,240
  4,546
  4,865
  5,197
  5,542
  5,900
  6,273
  6,661
  7,066
  7,487
  7,926
  8,384
  8,863
  9,362
  9,883
  10,428
  10,997
  11,593
  12,216
  12,867
  13,550
  14,264
  15,012
Working capital, $m
  -96
  -105
  -115
  -125
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -170
  -182
  -195
  -208
  -222
  -237
  -251
  -267
  -283
  -300
  -318
  -336
  -355
  -375
  -396
  -418
  -441
  -465
  -490
  -516
  -543
  -572
  -602
Total debt, $m
  1,363
  1,753
  2,160
  2,584
  3,026
  3,486
  3,964
  4,460
  4,976
  5,512
  6,070
  6,649
  7,252
  7,879
  8,532
  9,212
  9,920
  10,659
  11,429
  12,233
  13,072
  13,949
  14,864
  15,822
  16,823
  17,870
  18,966
  20,113
  21,315
  22,572
Total liabilities, $m
  4,031
  4,421
  4,828
  5,252
  5,694
  6,154
  6,632
  7,128
  7,644
  8,180
  8,738
  9,317
  9,920
  10,547
  11,200
  11,880
  12,588
  13,327
  14,097
  14,901
  15,740
  16,617
  17,532
  18,490
  19,491
  20,538
  21,634
  22,781
  23,983
  25,240
Total equity, $m
  2,142
  2,349
  2,566
  2,791
  3,026
  3,270
  3,524
  3,788
  4,062
  4,347
  4,643
  4,951
  5,271
  5,605
  5,951
  6,313
  6,689
  7,082
  7,491
  7,918
  8,364
  8,830
  9,317
  9,825
  10,357
  10,914
  11,496
  12,106
  12,744
  13,413
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,173
  6,770
  7,394
  8,043
  8,720
  9,424
  10,156
  10,916
  11,706
  12,527
  13,381
  14,268
  15,191
  16,152
  17,151
  18,193
  19,277
  20,409
  21,588
  22,819
  24,104
  25,447
  26,849
  28,315
  29,848
  31,452
  33,130
  34,887
  36,727
  38,653
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.640
  0.750
  0.840
  0.930
  1.000
  1.070
  1.120
  1.180
  1.230
  1.270
  1.310
  1.340
  1.380
  1.410
  1.430
  1.460
  1.480
  1.510
  1.530
  1.540
  1.560
  1.580
  1.600
  1.610
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,055
  1,290
  1,535
  1,791
  2,058
  2,337
  2,628
  2,931
  3,247
  3,575
  4,043
  4,400
  4,772
  5,160
  5,565
  5,987
  6,429
  6,890
  7,373
  7,877
  8,405
  8,958
  9,537
  10,144
  10,780
  11,447
  12,146
  12,880
  13,650
  14,458
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  411
  434
  459
  484
  510
  538
  566
  595
  626
  658
  520
  554
  590
  627
  666
  707
  749
  793
  838
  886
  936
  988
  1,043
  1,100
  1,159
  1,222
  1,287
  1,355
  1,426
  1,501
Funds from operations, $m
  1,467
  1,724
  1,993
  2,275
  2,569
  2,875
  3,194
  3,527
  3,873
  4,233
  4,563
  4,954
  5,362
  5,787
  6,231
  6,694
  7,178
  7,683
  8,211
  8,764
  9,342
  9,947
  10,580
  11,244
  11,939
  12,668
  13,433
  14,235
  15,076
  15,959
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Cash from operations, $m
  1,476
  1,733
  2,003
  2,285
  2,579
  2,886
  3,206
  3,538
  3,885
  4,246
  4,576
  4,968
  5,376
  5,802
  6,246
  6,710
  7,195
  7,701
  8,230
  8,783
  9,362
  9,968
  10,602
  11,267
  11,963
  12,693
  13,459
  14,262
  15,105
  15,989
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -218
  -240
  -263
  -287
  -312
  -339
  -366
  -394
  -424
  -455
  -487
  -520
  -554
  -590
  -627
  -666
  -707
  -749
  -793
  -838
  -886
  -936
  -988
  -1,043
  -1,100
  -1,159
  -1,222
  -1,287
  -1,355
  -1,426
New CAPEX, $m
  -220
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -345
  -358
  -373
  -388
  -404
  -421
  -439
  -458
  -478
  -499
  -521
  -545
  -569
  -595
  -623
  -652
  -682
  -714
  -748
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -438
  -472
  -505
  -539
  -575
  -612
  -650
  -689
  -731
  -774
  -818
  -865
  -912
  -963
  -1,015
  -1,070
  -1,128
  -1,188
  -1,251
  -1,316
  -1,385
  -1,457
  -1,533
  -1,612
  -1,695
  -1,782
  -1,874
  -1,969
  -2,069
  -2,174
Free cash flow, $m
  1,038
  1,261
  1,498
  1,745
  2,004
  2,274
  2,555
  2,849
  3,154
  3,473
  3,758
  4,103
  4,464
  4,839
  5,231
  5,640
  6,067
  6,513
  6,979
  7,466
  7,976
  8,510
  9,069
  9,654
  10,268
  10,911
  11,586
  12,293
  13,036
  13,815
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  373
  390
  407
  424
  442
  460
  478
  497
  516
  536
  557
  579
  603
  627
  653
  680
  708
  739
  770
  804
  839
  877
  916
  957
  1,001
  1,047
  1,096
  1,147
  1,201
  1,258
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  373
  390
  407
  424
  442
  460
  478
  497
  516
  536
  557
  579
  603
  627
  653
  680
  708
  739
  770
  804
  839
  877
  916
  957
  1,001
  1,047
  1,096
  1,147
  1,201
  1,258
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,411
  1,652
  1,905
  2,170
  2,446
  2,733
  3,033
  3,345
  3,670
  4,009
  4,315
  4,683
  5,066
  5,466
  5,884
  6,320
  6,775
  7,251
  7,749
  8,270
  8,815
  9,387
  9,985
  10,612
  11,269
  11,959
  12,682
  13,440
  14,237
  15,072
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -274
  -285
  -296
  -308
  -320
  -333
  -347
  -361
  -376
  -392
  -409
  -427
  -446
  -466
  -487
  -509
  -532
  -557
  -582
  -610
  -638
  -668
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2,117
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  194
  214
  234
  256
  278
  302
  326
  351
  378
  405
  433
  463
  494
  526
  559
  593
  629
  667
  706
  747
  790
  834
  880
  929
  980
  1,033
  1,088
  1,146
  1,207
  1,271
Cash available for distribution, $m
  3,329
  1,444
  1,689
  1,944
  2,211
  2,489
  2,779
  3,081
  3,396
  3,724
  4,019
  4,375
  4,746
  5,133
  5,537
  5,958
  6,399
  6,859
  7,340
  7,843
  8,369
  8,921
  9,498
  10,103
  10,737
  11,402
  12,099
  12,831
  13,598
  14,404
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  3,192
  1,322
  1,470
  1,601
  1,714
  1,807
  1,878
  1,926
  1,951
  1,952
  1,909
  1,867
  1,805
  1,723
  1,626
  1,514
  1,392
  1,263
  1,130
  997
  866
  740
  623
  515
  418
  333
  260
  199
  148
  108
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Electronic Arts Inc. develops, markets, publishes and distributes games, content and services that can be played by consumers on a range of platforms, which include consoles, personal computers (PCs), mobile phones and tablets. The Company's games and services are based on a portfolio of intellectual property that includes established brands, such as FIFA, Madden NFL, Star Wars, Battlefield, the Sims and Need for Speed. The Company markets and sells its games and services through retail channels and through digital distribution channels. The Company's PC games and additional content can be downloaded directly through its Origin online platform, as well as through third-party online download stores. Its mobile, tablet and PC free-to-download games and additional content are available through third-party application storefronts, such as the Apple Application Store and Google Play.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Electronic Arts (EA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42
Price to Sales 8.4
Price to Book 10
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 32.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 24.4%
Total Debt to Equity 24.4%
Interest Coverage 29
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Return On Total Capital 20.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Return On Equity 25.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.4%
EBITDA Margin 29.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
Operating Margin 25.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 25%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Net Profit Margin 20%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Effective Tax Rate 20.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4845 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Electronic Arts. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Electronic Arts. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Electronic Arts, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Electronic Arts.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 27.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2343 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Electronic Arts.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Electronic Arts. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EA stock is equal to 4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EA are equal to 44.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Electronic Arts operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EA is equal to -1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4060 million for Electronic Arts - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 303 million for Electronic Arts is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Electronic Arts at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $40.0 billion.

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▶ [$$] The World Cup Matters to Electronic Arts Money-Maker   [Jun-26-18 08:01PM  The Wall Street Journal]
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