Intrinsic value of Electronic Arts - EA

Previous Close

$82.99

  Intrinsic Value

$72.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-13%

Previous close

$82.99

 
Intrinsic value

$72.09

 
Up/down potential

-13%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of EA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 25.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,253
  5,374
  5,512
  5,667
  5,839
  6,027
  6,233
  6,455
  6,694
  6,951
  7,226
  7,519
  7,831
  8,163
  8,515
  8,889
  9,284
  9,701
  10,143
  10,609
  11,100
  11,619
  12,166
  12,742
  13,348
  13,987
  14,659
  15,366
  16,111
  16,893
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,630
  1,663
  1,700
  1,743
  1,790
  1,841
  1,897
  1,958
  2,023
  2,093
  1,973
  2,053
  2,138
  2,229
  2,325
  2,427
  2,535
  2,649
  2,770
  2,897
  3,031
  3,173
  3,322
  3,479
  3,645
  3,819
  4,003
  4,196
  4,399
  4,613
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  2,205
  2,254
  2,304
  2,354
  2,406
  2,459
  2,513
  2,568
  2,625
  2,683
  2,742
  2,802
  2,864
  2,927
  2,991
  3,057
  3,124
  3,193
  3,263
  3,335
  3,408
  3,483
  3,560
  3,638
  3,718
  3,800
  3,884
  3,969
  4,056
  4,146
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,835
  3,917
  4,004
  4,097
  4,196
  4,300
  4,410
  4,526
  4,648
  4,776
  4,715
  4,855
  5,002
  5,156
  5,316
  5,484
  5,659
  5,842
  6,033
  6,232
  6,439
  6,656
  6,882
  7,117
  7,363
  7,619
  7,887
  8,165
  8,455
  8,759
Operating income, $m
  1,418
  1,457
  1,508
  1,570
  1,643
  1,727
  1,822
  1,928
  2,046
  2,175
  2,511
  2,664
  2,829
  3,008
  3,199
  3,405
  3,625
  3,860
  4,110
  4,377
  4,661
  4,963
  5,284
  5,624
  5,985
  6,368
  6,773
  7,202
  7,655
  8,135
EBITDA, $m
  1,696
  1,737
  1,790
  1,854
  1,930
  2,017
  2,116
  2,225
  2,347
  2,480
  2,625
  2,782
  2,952
  3,136
  3,333
  3,544
  3,770
  4,012
  4,270
  4,544
  4,836
  5,146
  5,475
  5,825
  6,195
  6,588
  7,003
  7,443
  7,908
  8,401
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  54
  58
  63
  68
  75
  82
  90
  99
  108
  118
  129
  140
  152
  165
  179
  194
  210
  226
  243
  262
  281
  302
  324
  346
  370
  396
  423
  451
  480
  511
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,364
  1,399
  1,445
  1,501
  1,568
  1,645
  1,732
  1,830
  1,938
  2,057
  2,383
  2,524
  2,677
  2,842
  3,020
  3,211
  3,415
  3,633
  3,867
  4,115
  4,380
  4,661
  4,960
  5,278
  5,615
  5,972
  6,350
  6,751
  7,175
  7,624
Tax expense, $m
  368
  378
  390
  405
  423
  444
  468
  494
  523
  555
  643
  681
  723
  767
  815
  867
  922
  981
  1,044
  1,111
  1,183
  1,259
  1,339
  1,425
  1,516
  1,612
  1,715
  1,823
  1,937
  2,058
Net income, $m
  996
  1,022
  1,055
  1,096
  1,145
  1,201
  1,265
  1,336
  1,415
  1,502
  1,739
  1,842
  1,954
  2,075
  2,205
  2,344
  2,493
  2,652
  2,823
  3,004
  3,197
  3,403
  3,621
  3,853
  4,099
  4,359
  4,636
  4,928
  5,238
  5,565

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,856
  5,991
  6,145
  6,318
  6,509
  6,719
  6,948
  7,196
  7,463
  7,749
  8,056
  8,383
  8,731
  9,101
  9,493
  9,909
  10,350
  10,815
  11,307
  11,827
  12,375
  12,953
  13,563
  14,205
  14,881
  15,593
  16,342
  17,131
  17,961
  18,833
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,856
  5,991
  6,145
  6,318
  6,509
  6,719
  6,948
  7,196
  7,463
  7,749
  8,056
  8,383
  8,731
  9,101
  9,493
  9,909
  10,350
  10,815
  11,307
  11,827
  12,375
  12,953
  13,563
  14,205
  14,881
  15,593
  16,342
  17,131
  17,961
  18,833
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
Average production assets, $m
  1,387
  1,419
  1,455
  1,496
  1,541
  1,591
  1,645
  1,704
  1,767
  1,835
  1,908
  1,985
  2,067
  2,155
  2,248
  2,347
  2,451
  2,561
  2,678
  2,801
  2,931
  3,067
  3,212
  3,364
  3,524
  3,693
  3,870
  4,057
  4,253
  4,460
Working capital, $m
  -1,854
  -1,897
  -1,946
  -2,000
  -2,061
  -2,128
  -2,200
  -2,279
  -2,363
  -2,454
  -2,551
  -2,654
  -2,764
  -2,882
  -3,006
  -3,138
  -3,277
  -3,425
  -3,580
  -3,745
  -3,918
  -4,102
  -4,294
  -4,498
  -4,712
  -4,937
  -5,175
  -5,424
  -5,687
  -5,963
Total debt, $m
  1,067
  1,161
  1,268
  1,387
  1,520
  1,666
  1,825
  1,997
  2,182
  2,381
  2,594
  2,820
  3,062
  3,319
  3,591
  3,880
  4,186
  4,509
  4,850
  5,211
  5,591
  5,993
  6,415
  6,861
  7,330
  7,824
  8,345
  8,892
  9,468
  10,073
Total liabilities, $m
  4,064
  4,158
  4,265
  4,384
  4,517
  4,663
  4,822
  4,994
  5,179
  5,378
  5,591
  5,817
  6,059
  6,316
  6,588
  6,877
  7,183
  7,506
  7,847
  8,208
  8,588
  8,990
  9,412
  9,858
  10,327
  10,821
  11,342
  11,889
  12,465
  13,070
Total equity, $m
  1,792
  1,833
  1,880
  1,933
  1,992
  2,056
  2,126
  2,202
  2,284
  2,371
  2,465
  2,565
  2,672
  2,785
  2,905
  3,032
  3,167
  3,309
  3,460
  3,619
  3,787
  3,964
  4,150
  4,347
  4,554
  4,771
  5,001
  5,242
  5,496
  5,763
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,856
  5,991
  6,145
  6,317
  6,509
  6,719
  6,948
  7,196
  7,463
  7,749
  8,056
  8,382
  8,731
  9,101
  9,493
  9,909
  10,350
  10,815
  11,307
  11,827
  12,375
  12,954
  13,562
  14,205
  14,881
  15,592
  16,343
  17,131
  17,961
  18,833
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.600
  0.630
  0.670
  0.720
  0.760
  0.810
  0.860
  0.910
  0.960
  1.000
  1.050
  1.100
  1.150
  1.190
  1.240
  1.280
  1.320
  1.360
  1.400
  1.440
  1.480
  1.510
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.670
  1.700
  1.720
  1.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  996
  1,022
  1,055
  1,096
  1,145
  1,201
  1,265
  1,336
  1,415
  1,502
  1,739
  1,842
  1,954
  2,075
  2,205
  2,344
  2,493
  2,652
  2,823
  3,004
  3,197
  3,403
  3,621
  3,853
  4,099
  4,359
  4,636
  4,928
  5,238
  5,565
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  278
  280
  282
  284
  287
  290
  293
  297
  301
  305
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
Funds from operations, $m
  1,274
  1,301
  1,337
  1,381
  1,432
  1,491
  1,558
  1,633
  1,715
  1,806
  1,853
  1,961
  2,077
  2,203
  2,338
  2,484
  2,639
  2,805
  2,982
  3,171
  3,372
  3,585
  3,812
  4,053
  4,309
  4,579
  4,866
  5,170
  5,491
  5,831
Change in working capital, $m
  -36
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -276
Cash from operations, $m
  1,310
  1,344
  1,386
  1,435
  1,492
  1,558
  1,630
  1,711
  1,800
  1,897
  1,950
  2,064
  2,188
  2,320
  2,463
  2,615
  2,778
  2,952
  3,138
  3,335
  3,545
  3,768
  4,005
  4,256
  4,523
  4,805
  5,103
  5,419
  5,754
  6,107
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -81
  -83
  -84
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -253
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -187
  -196
  -207
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -107
  -115
  -120
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -211
  -221
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -297
  -311
  -327
  -343
  -360
  -379
  -397
  -417
  -437
  -460
Free cash flow, $m
  1,203
  1,230
  1,265
  1,308
  1,358
  1,416
  1,481
  1,554
  1,635
  1,724
  1,768
  1,873
  1,987
  2,110
  2,241
  2,383
  2,534
  2,696
  2,869
  3,053
  3,249
  3,457
  3,678
  3,913
  4,162
  4,426
  4,706
  5,002
  5,316
  5,647
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  75
  93
  107
  120
  133
  146
  159
  172
  185
  199
  213
  227
  242
  257
  272
  289
  306
  323
  341
  361
  380
  401
  423
  446
  469
  494
  520
  547
  576
  606
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  75
  93
  107
  120
  133
  146
  159
  172
  185
  199
  213
  227
  242
  257
  272
  289
  306
  323
  341
  361
  380
  401
  423
  446
  469
  494
  520
  547
  576
  606
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,278
  1,323
  1,372
  1,428
  1,491
  1,562
  1,640
  1,726
  1,821
  1,923
  1,981
  2,100
  2,229
  2,366
  2,514
  2,672
  2,840
  3,019
  3,210
  3,413
  3,629
  3,858
  4,101
  4,359
  4,632
  4,920
  5,226
  5,550
  5,892
  6,253
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -37
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -267
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2,840
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  4,081
  1,282
  1,325
  1,375
  1,432
  1,498
  1,570
  1,651
  1,739
  1,835
  1,887
  2,000
  2,122
  2,253
  2,394
  2,544
  2,705
  2,877
  3,060
  3,254
  3,461
  3,681
  3,915
  4,162
  4,425
  4,703
  4,997
  5,308
  5,638
  5,986
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  3,913
  1,174
  1,153
  1,132
  1,110
  1,087
  1,061
  1,032
  999
  962
  896
  853
  807
  756
  703
  647
  589
  530
  471
  414
  358
  305
  257
  212
  172
  137
  107
  82
  62
  45
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Electronic Arts Inc. develops, markets, publishes and distributes games, content and services that can be played by consumers on a range of platforms, which include consoles, personal computers (PCs), mobile phones and tablets. The Company's games and services are based on a portfolio of intellectual property that includes established brands, such as FIFA, Madden NFL, Star Wars, Battlefield, the Sims and Need for Speed. The Company markets and sells its games and services through retail channels and through digital distribution channels. The Company's PC games and additional content can be downloaded directly through its Origin online platform, as well as through third-party online download stores. Its mobile, tablet and PC free-to-download games and additional content are available through third-party application storefronts, such as the Apple Application Store and Google Play.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Electronic Arts (EA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.4
Price to Sales 5.3
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 32.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 24.4%
Total Debt to Equity 24.4%
Interest Coverage 29
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Return On Total Capital 20.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Return On Equity 25.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.4%
EBITDA Margin 29.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
Operating Margin 25.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 25%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Net Profit Margin 20%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Effective Tax Rate 20.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5150 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Electronic Arts. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Electronic Arts. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Electronic Arts, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Electronic Arts.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 31.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2158 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Electronic Arts.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Electronic Arts. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EA are equal to 26.4%.

Life of production assets of 16.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Electronic Arts operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EA is equal to -35.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4595 million for Electronic Arts - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 306.833 million for Electronic Arts is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Electronic Arts at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $25.5 billion.

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