Intrinsic value of GrafTech International Ltd. - EAF

Previous Close

$13.93

  Intrinsic Value

$312.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$13.93

 
Intrinsic value

$312.23

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EAF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  3,034
  4,687
  7,009
  10,170
  14,349
  19,726
  26,478
  34,767
  44,737
  56,507
  70,168
  85,787
  103,403
  123,029
  144,660
  168,274
  193,838
  221,310
  250,645
  281,799
  314,732
  349,409
  385,805
  423,901
  463,694
  505,187
  548,399
  593,358
  640,105
  688,692
Variable operating expenses, $m
  560
  856
  1,272
  1,837
  2,585
  3,548
  4,756
  6,240
  8,024
  10,131
  12,559
  15,354
  18,507
  22,020
  25,891
  30,118
  34,693
  39,610
  44,861
  50,437
  56,331
  62,538
  69,052
  75,870
  82,992
  90,419
  98,153
  106,200
  114,567
  123,263
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  433
  443
  453
  463
  473
  483
  494
  505
  516
  527
  539
  551
  563
  575
  588
  601
  614
  627
  641
  655
  670
  684
  699
  715
  731
  747
  763
  780
  797
  815
Total operating expenses, $m
  993
  1,299
  1,725
  2,300
  3,058
  4,031
  5,250
  6,745
  8,540
  10,658
  13,098
  15,905
  19,070
  22,595
  26,479
  30,719
  35,307
  40,237
  45,502
  51,092
  57,001
  63,222
  69,751
  76,585
  83,723
  91,166
  98,916
  106,980
  115,364
  124,078
Operating income, $m
  2,040
  3,388
  5,285
  7,870
  11,291
  15,695
  21,228
  28,023
  36,197
  45,849
  57,071
  69,883
  84,333
  100,434
  118,181
  137,556
  158,531
  181,072
  205,143
  230,707
  257,731
  286,187
  316,053
  347,316
  379,971
  414,021
  449,483
  486,378
  524,741
  564,615
EBITDA, $m
  2,150
  3,549
  5,517
  8,199
  11,748
  16,317
  22,058
  29,107
  37,587
  47,599
  59,224
  72,515
  87,505
  104,208
  122,619
  142,718
  164,478
  187,862
  212,833
  239,353
  267,387
  296,907
  327,890
  360,321
  394,197
  429,520
  466,307
  504,582
  544,379
  585,744
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  233
  188
  316
  495
  739
  1,062
  1,477
  1,998
  2,638
  3,408
  4,317
  5,371
  6,577
  7,937
  9,452
  11,122
  12,946
  14,919
  17,040
  19,305
  21,710
  24,253
  26,930
  29,740
  32,681
  35,753
  38,957
  42,293
  45,764
  49,373
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,807
  3,200
  4,969
  7,375
  10,551
  14,633
  19,751
  26,025
  33,559
  42,441
  52,754
  64,511
  77,756
  92,497
  108,729
  126,433
  145,585
  166,153
  188,103
  211,402
  236,021
  261,935
  289,124
  317,576
  347,290
  378,268
  410,526
  444,085
  478,977
  515,242
Tax expense, $m
  488
  864
  1,342
  1,991
  2,849
  3,951
  5,333
  7,027
  9,061
  11,459
  14,244
  17,418
  20,994
  24,974
  29,357
  34,137
  39,308
  44,861
  50,788
  57,079
  63,726
  70,722
  78,063
  85,746
  93,768
  102,132
  110,842
  119,903
  129,324
  139,115
Net income, $m
  1,319
  2,336
  3,627
  5,384
  7,703
  10,682
  14,418
  18,998
  24,498
  30,982
  38,511
  47,093
  56,762
  67,523
  79,372
  92,296
  106,277
  121,292
  137,315
  154,324
  172,295
  191,212
  211,060
  231,831
  253,522
  276,136
  299,684
  324,182
  349,654
  376,127

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,410
  3,723
  5,567
  8,078
  11,397
  15,668
  21,031
  27,615
  35,534
  44,882
  55,733
  68,139
  82,131
  97,719
  114,901
  133,657
  153,962
  175,782
  199,082
  223,828
  249,986
  277,529
  306,437
  336,697
  368,303
  401,260
  435,583
  471,293
  508,423
  547,015
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,410
  3,723
  5,567
  8,078
  11,397
  15,668
  21,031
  27,615
  35,534
  44,882
  55,733
  68,139
  82,131
  97,719
  114,901
  133,657
  153,962
  175,782
  199,082
  223,828
  249,986
  277,529
  306,437
  336,697
  368,303
  401,260
  435,583
  471,293
  508,423
  547,015
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
  1.259
Average production assets, $m
  959
  1,481
  2,215
  3,214
  4,534
  6,233
  8,367
  10,986
  14,137
  17,856
  22,173
  27,109
  32,675
  38,877
  45,713
  53,175
  61,253
  69,934
  79,204
  89,048
  99,455
  110,413
  121,914
  133,953
  146,527
  159,639
  173,294
  187,501
  202,273
  217,627
Working capital, $m
  589
  909
  1,360
  1,973
  2,784
  3,827
  5,137
  6,745
  8,679
  10,962
  13,613
  16,643
  20,060
  23,868
  28,064
  32,645
  37,605
  42,934
  48,625
  54,669
  61,058
  67,785
  74,846
  82,237
  89,957
  98,006
  106,389
  115,111
  124,180
  133,606
Total debt, $m
  1,743
  2,925
  4,585
  6,845
  9,831
  13,676
  18,502
  24,428
  31,555
  39,968
  49,734
  60,900
  73,492
  87,522
  102,985
  119,866
  138,140
  157,778
  178,748
  201,019
  224,561
  249,351
  275,368
  302,602
  331,047
  360,709
  391,599
  423,738
  457,155
  491,888
Total liabilities, $m
  2,169
  3,350
  5,011
  7,270
  10,257
  14,101
  18,928
  24,853
  31,980
  40,394
  50,160
  61,325
  73,918
  87,948
  103,411
  120,291
  138,566
  158,204
  179,174
  201,445
  224,987
  249,776
  275,794
  303,027
  331,473
  361,134
  392,024
  424,163
  457,581
  492,314
Total equity, $m
  241
  372
  557
  808
  1,140
  1,567
  2,103
  2,761
  3,553
  4,488
  5,573
  6,814
  8,213
  9,772
  11,490
  13,366
  15,396
  17,578
  19,908
  22,383
  24,999
  27,753
  30,644
  33,670
  36,830
  40,126
  43,558
  47,129
  50,842
  54,702
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,410
  3,722
  5,568
  8,078
  11,397
  15,668
  21,031
  27,614
  35,533
  44,882
  55,733
  68,139
  82,131
  97,720
  114,901
  133,657
  153,962
  175,782
  199,082
  223,828
  249,986
  277,529
  306,438
  336,697
  368,303
  401,260
  435,582
  471,292
  508,423
  547,016
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.230
  7.860
  8.240
  8.470
  8.630
  8.730
  8.800
  8.850
  8.880
  8.910
  8.920
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,319
  2,336
  3,627
  5,384
  7,703
  10,682
  14,418
  18,998
  24,498
  30,982
  38,511
  47,093
  56,762
  67,523
  79,372
  92,296
  106,277
  121,292
  137,315
  154,324
  172,295
  191,212
  211,060
  231,831
  253,522
  276,136
  299,684
  324,182
  349,654
  376,127
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  110
  161
  232
  329
  457
  622
  829
  1,084
  1,390
  1,751
  2,153
  2,632
  3,172
  3,774
  4,438
  5,163
  5,947
  6,790
  7,690
  8,645
  9,656
  10,720
  11,836
  13,005
  14,226
  15,499
  16,825
  18,204
  19,638
  21,129
Funds from operations, $m
  1,429
  2,497
  3,860
  5,713
  8,160
  11,305
  15,248
  20,082
  25,888
  32,733
  40,663
  49,725
  59,934
  71,297
  83,810
  97,459
  112,224
  128,081
  145,005
  162,969
  181,951
  201,932
  222,897
  244,836
  267,747
  291,635
  316,509
  342,386
  369,292
  397,256
Change in working capital, $m
  221
  321
  451
  613
  811
  1,043
  1,310
  1,608
  1,934
  2,283
  2,650
  3,030
  3,417
  3,807
  4,196
  4,581
  4,959
  5,329
  5,691
  6,044
  6,389
  6,727
  7,061
  7,391
  7,720
  8,050
  8,383
  8,722
  9,069
  9,426
Cash from operations, $m
  1,209
  2,176
  3,409
  5,100
  7,349
  10,261
  13,938
  18,474
  23,953
  30,449
  38,013
  46,695
  56,517
  67,490
  79,614
  92,878
  107,265
  122,752
  139,314
  156,925
  175,562
  195,205
  215,836
  237,445
  260,028
  283,585
  308,126
  333,664
  360,223
  387,830
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -93
  -144
  -215
  -312
  -440
  -605
  -812
  -1,067
  -1,373
  -1,734
  -2,153
  -2,632
  -3,172
  -3,774
  -4,438
  -5,163
  -5,947
  -6,790
  -7,690
  -8,645
  -9,656
  -10,720
  -11,836
  -13,005
  -14,226
  -15,499
  -16,825
  -18,204
  -19,638
New CAPEX, $m
  -360
  -522
  -734
  -999
  -1,320
  -1,699
  -2,134
  -2,619
  -3,150
  -3,719
  -4,317
  -4,936
  -5,566
  -6,202
  -6,835
  -7,462
  -8,078
  -8,681
  -9,270
  -9,845
  -10,407
  -10,958
  -11,501
  -12,039
  -12,574
  -13,112
  -13,655
  -14,207
  -14,772
  -15,354
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -418
  -615
  -878
  -1,214
  -1,632
  -2,139
  -2,739
  -3,431
  -4,217
  -5,092
  -6,051
  -7,089
  -8,198
  -9,374
  -10,609
  -11,900
  -13,241
  -14,628
  -16,060
  -17,535
  -19,052
  -20,614
  -22,221
  -23,875
  -25,579
  -27,338
  -29,154
  -31,032
  -32,976
  -34,992
Free cash flow, $m
  791
  1,561
  2,531
  3,886
  5,717
  8,122
  11,199
  15,042
  19,736
  25,358
  31,962
  39,607
  48,318
  58,116
  69,004
  80,978
  94,024
  108,124
  123,254
  139,391
  156,510
  174,591
  193,615
  213,570
  234,448
  256,247
  278,972
  302,633
  327,247
  352,838
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -414
  1,182
  1,660
  2,260
  2,987
  3,844
  4,827
  5,926
  7,127
  8,413
  9,766
  11,165
  12,592
  14,030
  15,463
  16,881
  18,274
  19,638
  20,970
  22,271
  23,542
  24,789
  26,017
  27,234
  28,446
  29,662
  30,890
  32,139
  33,417
  34,733
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -414
  1,182
  1,660
  2,260
  2,987
  3,844
  4,827
  5,926
  7,127
  8,413
  9,766
  11,165
  12,592
  14,030
  15,463
  16,881
  18,274
  19,638
  20,970
  22,271
  23,542
  24,789
  26,017
  27,234
  28,446
  29,662
  30,890
  32,139
  33,417
  34,733
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  377
  2,742
  4,192
  6,145
  8,704
  11,966
  16,026
  20,967
  26,863
  33,771
  41,728
  50,772
  60,911
  72,145
  84,467
  97,858
  112,298
  127,762
  144,224
  161,661
  180,052
  199,380
  219,633
  240,804
  262,894
  285,909
  309,862
  334,772
  360,664
  387,571
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,318
  -131
  -184
  -251
  -332
  -427
  -536
  -658
  -792
  -935
  -1,085
  -1,241
  -1,399
  -1,559
  -1,718
  -1,876
  -2,030
  -2,182
  -2,330
  -2,475
  -2,616
  -2,754
  -2,891
  -3,026
  -3,161
  -3,296
  -3,432
  -3,571
  -3,713
  -3,859
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -941
  2,611
  4,007
  5,894
  8,372
  11,539
  15,489
  20,309
  26,071
  32,836
  40,643
  49,531
  59,512
  70,586
  82,749
  95,983
  110,268
  125,580
  141,894
  159,187
  177,436
  196,626
  216,742
  237,778
  259,733
  282,613
  306,430
  331,201
  356,951
  383,712
Discount rate, %
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.88
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.44
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
  22.04
  23.14
  24.30
  25.51
  26.79
  28.12
  29.53
  31.01
  32.56
  34.19
  35.90
  37.69
  39.57
  41.55
  43.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -850
  2,114
  2,876
  3,710
  4,567
  5,389
  6,113
  6,678
  7,039
  7,164
  7,048
  6,708
  6,177
  5,506
  4,750
  3,966
  3,204
  2,505
  1,893
  1,382
  974
  663
  435
  274
  167
  97
  54
  29
  15
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

EAF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EAF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1896 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GrafTech International Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of GrafTech International Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EAF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.6%, whose default value for EAF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GrafTech International Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GrafTech International Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EAF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 18.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $424 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EAF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.8% for GrafTech International Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GrafTech International Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EAF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EAF are equal to 31.6%.

Life of production assets of 10.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GrafTech International Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EAF is equal to 19.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1076.769 million for GrafTech International Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 290.370 million for GrafTech International Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GrafTech International Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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