Intrinsic value of Emergent Biosolutions - EBS

Previous Close

$54.26

  Intrinsic Value

$7.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$54.26

 
Intrinsic value

$7.34

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EBS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.14
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
Revenue, $m
  644
  733
  828
  928
  1,035
  1,146
  1,263
  1,385
  1,513
  1,646
  1,785
  1,929
  2,079
  2,235
  2,396
  2,565
  2,739
  2,921
  3,110
  3,307
  3,512
  3,725
  3,947
  4,179
  4,420
  4,672
  4,936
  5,210
  5,498
  5,798
Variable operating expenses, $m
  474
  537
  605
  676
  751
  831
  914
  1,000
  1,091
  1,186
  1,267
  1,369
  1,476
  1,586
  1,701
  1,821
  1,945
  2,074
  2,208
  2,347
  2,493
  2,644
  2,802
  2,966
  3,138
  3,317
  3,504
  3,699
  3,903
  4,116
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
Total operating expenses, $m
  495
  559
  627
  699
  774
  855
  938
  1,025
  1,117
  1,212
  1,294
  1,396
  1,504
  1,614
  1,730
  1,851
  1,975
  2,105
  2,240
  2,379
  2,526
  2,678
  2,837
  3,001
  3,174
  3,354
  3,542
  3,738
  3,942
  4,156
Operating income, $m
  148
  174
  201
  230
  260
  292
  325
  360
  397
  435
  491
  532
  575
  620
  666
  714
  764
  816
  871
  927
  986
  1,047
  1,110
  1,177
  1,246
  1,319
  1,394
  1,473
  1,556
  1,642
EBITDA, $m
  224
  258
  294
  331
  371
  414
  458
  504
  552
  602
  655
  709
  766
  825
  886
  949
  1,015
  1,084
  1,155
  1,230
  1,307
  1,388
  1,472
  1,560
  1,651
  1,747
  1,846
  1,950
  2,059
  2,173
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
Earnings before tax, $m
  148
  172
  198
  225
  254
  284
  316
  349
  383
  419
  474
  513
  554
  596
  640
  686
  733
  783
  834
  888
  943
  1,001
  1,062
  1,125
  1,191
  1,259
  1,331
  1,406
  1,484
  1,566
Tax expense, $m
  40
  46
  53
  61
  68
  77
  85
  94
  104
  113
  128
  139
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211
  225
  240
  255
  270
  287
  304
  321
  340
  359
  380
  401
  423
Net income, $m
  108
  125
  144
  164
  185
  207
  230
  255
  280
  306
  346
  375
  404
  435
  467
  501
  535
  571
  609
  648
  689
  731
  775
  821
  869
  919
  972
  1,026
  1,084
  1,143

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,138
  1,295
  1,463
  1,640
  1,828
  2,025
  2,232
  2,448
  2,673
  2,909
  3,154
  3,408
  3,673
  3,948
  4,234
  4,531
  4,840
  5,161
  5,495
  5,842
  6,204
  6,581
  6,973
  7,383
  7,810
  8,255
  8,720
  9,206
  9,713
  10,244
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,138
  1,295
  1,463
  1,640
  1,828
  2,025
  2,232
  2,448
  2,673
  2,909
  3,154
  3,408
  3,673
  3,948
  4,234
  4,531
  4,840
  5,161
  5,495
  5,842
  6,204
  6,581
  6,973
  7,383
  7,810
  8,255
  8,720
  9,206
  9,713
  10,244
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
Average production assets, $m
  590
  671
  758
  850
  948
  1,050
  1,157
  1,269
  1,386
  1,508
  1,635
  1,767
  1,904
  2,047
  2,195
  2,349
  2,509
  2,676
  2,849
  3,029
  3,217
  3,412
  3,615
  3,828
  4,049
  4,280
  4,521
  4,773
  5,036
  5,311
Working capital, $m
  116
  132
  149
  167
  186
  206
  227
  249
  272
  296
  321
  347
  374
  402
  431
  462
  493
  526
  560
  595
  632
  670
  710
  752
  796
  841
  888
  938
  990
  1,044
Total debt, $m
  36
  61
  88
  116
  146
  177
  210
  244
  280
  318
  357
  397
  439
  483
  528
  576
  625
  676
  729
  784
  842
  902
  964
  1,029
  1,097
  1,168
  1,242
  1,319
  1,400
  1,484
Total liabilities, $m
  181
  206
  233
  261
  291
  322
  355
  389
  425
  462
  501
  542
  584
  628
  673
  720
  770
  821
  874
  929
  986
  1,046
  1,109
  1,174
  1,242
  1,313
  1,386
  1,464
  1,544
  1,629
Total equity, $m
  957
  1,089
  1,230
  1,379
  1,537
  1,703
  1,877
  2,059
  2,248
  2,446
  2,652
  2,866
  3,089
  3,320
  3,561
  3,811
  4,070
  4,340
  4,621
  4,914
  5,218
  5,535
  5,865
  6,209
  6,568
  6,942
  7,334
  7,742
  8,169
  8,615
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,138
  1,295
  1,463
  1,640
  1,828
  2,025
  2,232
  2,448
  2,673
  2,908
  3,153
  3,408
  3,673
  3,948
  4,234
  4,531
  4,840
  5,161
  5,495
  5,843
  6,204
  6,581
  6,974
  7,383
  7,810
  8,255
  8,720
  9,206
  9,713
  10,244
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  108
  125
  144
  164
  185
  207
  230
  255
  280
  306
  346
  375
  404
  435
  467
  501
  535
  571
  609
  648
  689
  731
  775
  821
  869
  919
  972
  1,026
  1,084
  1,143
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  76
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  168
  163
  177
  190
  205
  220
  235
  251
  268
  285
  303
  322
  341
  362
  383
  405
  428
  452
  477
  504
  531
Funds from operations, $m
  184
  210
  237
  266
  297
  329
  363
  398
  435
  474
  510
  551
  595
  640
  687
  736
  786
  839
  894
  951
  1,010
  1,072
  1,137
  1,204
  1,274
  1,347
  1,424
  1,504
  1,587
  1,674
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
Cash from operations, $m
  169
  193
  220
  248
  278
  309
  342
  376
  412
  450
  485
  525
  568
  612
  658
  705
  755
  806
  860
  915
  973
  1,034
  1,097
  1,162
  1,231
  1,302
  1,376
  1,454
  1,535
  1,620
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -59
  -67
  -76
  -85
  -95
  -105
  -116
  -127
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -177
  -190
  -205
  -220
  -235
  -251
  -268
  -285
  -303
  -322
  -341
  -362
  -383
  -405
  -428
  -452
  -477
  -504
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -195
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -252
  -263
  -275
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -127
  -141
  -154
  -168
  -182
  -197
  -212
  -228
  -244
  -261
  -278
  -295
  -314
  -333
  -353
  -374
  -395
  -417
  -441
  -465
  -491
  -517
  -545
  -574
  -604
  -636
  -669
  -704
  -740
  -779
Free cash flow, $m
  41
  53
  66
  80
  95
  112
  130
  149
  168
  189
  207
  230
  254
  279
  305
  332
  360
  389
  419
  450
  483
  517
  552
  588
  627
  666
  707
  750
  795
  842
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  16
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  39
  32
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  80
  85
  93
  108
  125
  143
  163
  183
  204
  227
  246
  270
  296
  322
  350
  379
  409
  440
  472
  506
  540
  577
  614
  654
  694
  737
  781
  827
  876
  926
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -124
  -132
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -359
  -375
  -391
  -408
  -427
  -446
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  79
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  141
  148
Cash available for distribution, $m
  35
  -47
  -48
  -41
  -32
  -22
  -11
  1
  15
  29
  40
  56
  73
  91
  110
  129
  149
  170
  191
  213
  236
  260
  284
  309
  335
  362
  390
  419
  449
  480
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  34
  -43
  -42
  -34
  -25
  -16
  -8
  1
  8
  15
  19
  24
  28
  31
  32
  33
  32
  31
  29
  27
  24
  22
  19
  16
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.2
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. is a life sciences company. The Company focuses on protecting and enhancing life by providing specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally emerging public health threats. It focuses on developing, manufacturing and commercializing medical countermeasures that address public health threats (PHTs). The PHTs operates through two categories: Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear, as well as explosive-related threats and emerging infectious diseases. It operates through four business units: Vaccines and Anti-infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices, and Contract Manufacturing. Vaccines and Anti-infectives business unit consists of BioThrax, which is for the general use prophylaxis and post-exposure prophylaxis of anthrax disease. Devices business unit consists of marketed products, such as Reactive Skin Decontamination Lotion Kit (RSDL) and Trobigard (atropine sulfate, obidoxime chloride).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Emergent Biosolutions (EBS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.3
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 41.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -95.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 41.6%
Total Debt to Equity 45%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 8.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.4%
EBITDA Margin 29.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
Operating Margin 21.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Net Profit Margin 10.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EBS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EBS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $561 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Emergent Biosolutions. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Emergent Biosolutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EBS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EBS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Emergent Biosolutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Emergent Biosolutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EBS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $21 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EBS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Emergent Biosolutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Emergent Biosolutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EBS stock is equal to 2.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EBS are equal to 91.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Emergent Biosolutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EBS is equal to 18%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $912 million for Emergent Biosolutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42 million for Emergent Biosolutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Emergent Biosolutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Emergent BioSolutions plans $50 million expansion to Baltimore facility   [Jun-07-18 11:45AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Emergent BioSolutions Moves Things Around   [May-08-18 04:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Emergent Biosolutions: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Emergent BioSolutions to enter 5 new countries with anthrax vaccine   [Apr-13-18 02:58PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ One Gaithersburg biotech's latest marketing push: Selling doomsday kits on Amazon   [Mar-01-18 05:30AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Emergent Biosolutions beats 4Q profit forecasts   [05:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ Emergent BioSolutions Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-22-18 01:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Here are the D.C.-area stocks getting pummeled in the market rout   [Feb-06-18 03:21PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ See the D.C.-area stocks hit hardest in the last week   [10:22AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 4 Biotech Stocks to Watch in the New Year   [Jan-05-18 04:25PM  Zacks]
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▶ Treichl Sees Central Banks Taking Over Bitcoin   [07:47AM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for November 28th   [Nov-28-17 06:37AM  Zacks]
▶ Emergent Biosolutions beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-06-17 05:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Emergent BioSolutions Inc. Jumped Higher Today   [Nov-03-17 01:33PM  Motley Fool]
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