Intrinsic value of Echo Global Logistics - ECHO

Previous Close

$31.45

  Intrinsic Value

$26.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-17%

Previous close

$31.45

 
Intrinsic value

$26.22

 
Up/down potential

-17%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ECHO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  2,199
  2,472
  2,760
  3,062
  3,380
  3,713
  4,061
  4,423
  4,800
  5,193
  5,601
  6,025
  6,466
  6,924
  7,400
  7,895
  8,409
  8,945
  9,502
  10,082
  10,687
  11,317
  11,975
  12,660
  13,376
  14,124
  14,905
  15,721
  16,574
  17,467
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,161
  2,423
  2,700
  2,992
  3,298
  3,619
  3,953
  4,302
  4,666
  5,044
  5,394
  5,803
  6,227
  6,668
  7,127
  7,603
  8,099
  8,615
  9,152
  9,711
  10,293
  10,900
  11,533
  12,193
  12,883
  13,603
  14,355
  15,141
  15,963
  16,823
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,172
  2,434
  2,712
  3,004
  3,310
  3,632
  3,966
  4,315
  4,679
  5,058
  5,408
  5,817
  6,242
  6,683
  7,142
  7,619
  8,115
  8,631
  9,169
  9,728
  10,310
  10,918
  11,551
  12,212
  12,902
  13,622
  14,375
  15,161
  15,984
  16,844
Operating income, $m
  27
  37
  48
  58
  70
  82
  94
  107
  121
  135
  193
  208
  224
  240
  258
  276
  294
  314
  334
  355
  377
  400
  423
  448
  474
  501
  530
  559
  590
  623
EBITDA, $m
  126
  142
  160
  178
  198
  218
  240
  262
  285
  309
  334
  360
  387
  416
  445
  475
  507
  540
  574
  610
  647
  686
  726
  769
  813
  859
  907
  957
  1,010
  1,065
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  40
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  111
  119
  128
  138
  147
  158
  168
  179
  191
  203
  215
  228
  242
  256
  271
Earnings before tax, $m
  12
  18
  23
  29
  35
  42
  48
  55
  63
  70
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  334
  352
Tax expense, $m
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
Net income, $m
  9
  13
  17
  21
  26
  30
  35
  40
  46
  51
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  948
  1,066
  1,190
  1,321
  1,458
  1,601
  1,751
  1,907
  2,070
  2,239
  2,415
  2,598
  2,788
  2,986
  3,191
  3,404
  3,626
  3,857
  4,097
  4,348
  4,608
  4,880
  5,164
  5,459
  5,768
  6,090
  6,427
  6,779
  7,147
  7,532
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  948
  1,066
  1,190
  1,321
  1,458
  1,601
  1,751
  1,907
  2,070
  2,239
  2,415
  2,598
  2,788
  2,986
  3,191
  3,404
  3,626
  3,857
  4,097
  4,348
  4,608
  4,880
  5,164
  5,459
  5,768
  6,090
  6,427
  6,779
  7,147
  7,532
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.320
  2.319
  2.319
  2.318
  2.318
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
  2.319
Average production assets, $m
  556
  625
  698
  775
  855
  939
  1,027
  1,119
  1,214
  1,314
  1,417
  1,524
  1,636
  1,752
  1,872
  1,997
  2,128
  2,263
  2,404
  2,551
  2,704
  2,863
  3,030
  3,203
  3,384
  3,573
  3,771
  3,977
  4,193
  4,419
Working capital, $m
  -220
  -247
  -276
  -306
  -338
  -371
  -406
  -442
  -480
  -519
  -560
  -602
  -647
  -692
  -740
  -789
  -841
  -894
  -950
  -1,008
  -1,069
  -1,132
  -1,197
  -1,266
  -1,338
  -1,412
  -1,490
  -1,572
  -1,657
  -1,747
Total debt, $m
  274
  342
  413
  487
  566
  648
  733
  823
  916
  1,013
  1,113
  1,218
  1,327
  1,440
  1,557
  1,679
  1,806
  1,938
  2,076
  2,219
  2,368
  2,523
  2,685
  2,855
  3,031
  3,216
  3,408
  3,610
  3,820
  4,040
Total liabilities, $m
  543
  610
  681
  755
  834
  916
  1,002
  1,091
  1,184
  1,281
  1,381
  1,486
  1,595
  1,708
  1,825
  1,947
  2,074
  2,206
  2,344
  2,487
  2,636
  2,791
  2,954
  3,123
  3,299
  3,484
  3,676
  3,878
  4,088
  4,308
Total equity, $m
  406
  456
  509
  565
  624
  685
  749
  816
  886
  958
  1,034
  1,112
  1,193
  1,278
  1,366
  1,457
  1,552
  1,651
  1,754
  1,861
  1,972
  2,089
  2,210
  2,337
  2,469
  2,607
  2,751
  2,901
  3,059
  3,224
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  949
  1,066
  1,190
  1,320
  1,458
  1,601
  1,751
  1,907
  2,070
  2,239
  2,415
  2,598
  2,788
  2,986
  3,191
  3,404
  3,626
  3,857
  4,098
  4,348
  4,608
  4,880
  5,164
  5,460
  5,768
  6,091
  6,427
  6,779
  7,147
  7,532
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.680
  0.750
  0.810
  0.860
  0.910
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  13
  17
  21
  26
  30
  35
  40
  46
  51
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  142
  152
  164
  175
  187
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  270
  286
  303
  320
  338
  357
  377
  398
  419
  442
Funds from operations, $m
  107
  118
  129
  141
  154
  167
  181
  195
  210
  225
  230
  246
  264
  282
  301
  320
  340
  362
  384
  406
  430
  455
  481
  508
  537
  566
  597
  629
  663
  699
Change in working capital, $m
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
Cash from operations, $m
  133
  145
  158
  172
  186
  200
  215
  231
  247
  264
  271
  289
  308
  328
  348
  370
  392
  415
  439
  465
  491
  518
  547
  577
  608
  641
  675
  711
  749
  788
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -131
  -142
  -152
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -226
  -240
  -255
  -270
  -286
  -303
  -320
  -338
  -357
  -377
  -398
  -419
New CAPEX, $m
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -113
  -125
  -136
  -147
  -157
  -170
  -182
  -195
  -207
  -220
  -234
  -249
  -264
  -280
  -295
  -312
  -330
  -348
  -367
  -387
  -408
  -429
  -452
  -476
  -501
  -527
  -555
  -584
  -614
  -645
Free cash flow, $m
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  63
  67
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  201
  211
  220
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  38
  37
  36
  35
  33
  31
  29
  26
  24
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  101
  104
  107
  110
  111
  113
  115
  115
  117
  118
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  201
  211
  220
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  121
  125
  130
  134
  139
  143
  148
  152
  157
  162
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  232
  244
  256
  270
  283
  298
  313
  329
  346
  363
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
Cash available for distribution, $m
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  87
  89
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
Discount rate, %
  4.40
  4.62
  4.85
  5.09
  5.35
  5.62
  5.90
  6.19
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  71
  68
  67
  64
  62
  59
  56
  53
  50
  46
  29
  28
  27
  25
  23
  22
  20
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.9
  92.4
  89.5
  87.1
  85.1
  83.4
  82.0
  80.8
  79.9
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1
  79.1

Echo Global Logistics, Inc. is a provider of technology-enabled transportation and supply chain management solutions. The Company utilizes a technology platform to compile and analyze data from its multi-modal network of transportation providers to facilitate its transportation and logistics services. The Company focuses primarily on arranging transportation by truckload (TL) and less than truckload (LTL) carriers. It also offers intermodal (which involves moving a shipment by rail and truck), small parcel, domestic air, expedited and international transportation services. The Company's core logistics services include rate negotiation, shipment execution and tracking, carrier selection and management, routing compliance freight bill payment and audit, payment and performance management and reporting functions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Echo Global Logistics (ECHO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 442.3
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 68.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 213.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 39.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 57%
Total Debt to Equity 57%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 0.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
EBITDA Margin 2.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Operating Margin 0.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Net Profit Margin 0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate -100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

ECHO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ECHO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1943 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Echo Global Logistics. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Echo Global Logistics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ECHO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.4%, whose default value for ECHO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Echo Global Logistics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Echo Global Logistics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ECHO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ECHO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.1% for Echo Global Logistics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Echo Global Logistics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ECHO stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ECHO are equal to 25.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Echo Global Logistics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ECHO is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $359 million for Echo Global Logistics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28 million for Echo Global Logistics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Echo Global Logistics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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