Intrinsic value of US Ecology - ECOL

Previous Close

$63.87

  Intrinsic Value

$37.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-42%

Previous close

$63.87

 
Intrinsic value

$37.26

 
Up/down potential

-42%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ECOL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  547
  592
  639
  688
  739
  791
  846
  903
  962
  1,024
  1,088
  1,154
  1,224
  1,296
  1,372
  1,451
  1,533
  1,619
  1,708
  1,802
  1,900
  2,002
  2,110
  2,222
  2,339
  2,462
  2,591
  2,726
  2,868
  3,016
Variable operating expenses, $m
  463
  498
  534
  572
  611
  652
  694
  738
  783
  831
  839
  890
  944
  1,000
  1,058
  1,119
  1,182
  1,248
  1,317
  1,390
  1,465
  1,544
  1,627
  1,714
  1,804
  1,899
  1,998
  2,103
  2,212
  2,326
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  463
  498
  534
  572
  611
  652
  694
  738
  783
  831
  839
  890
  944
  1,000
  1,058
  1,119
  1,182
  1,248
  1,317
  1,390
  1,465
  1,544
  1,627
  1,714
  1,804
  1,899
  1,998
  2,103
  2,212
  2,326
Operating income, $m
  84
  94
  105
  116
  128
  140
  152
  165
  179
  193
  249
  264
  280
  297
  314
  332
  351
  370
  391
  412
  435
  458
  483
  508
  535
  563
  593
  624
  656
  690
EBITDA, $m
  153
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  237
  253
  270
  287
  305
  323
  343
  363
  384
  406
  429
  454
  479
  505
  532
  561
  591
  623
  655
  690
  726
  764
  803
  845
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  164
Earnings before tax, $m
  66
  74
  82
  90
  98
  107
  117
  126
  136
  147
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
  304
  320
  337
  354
  372
  391
  411
  432
  454
  477
  501
  526
Tax expense, $m
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
Net income, $m
  48
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  258
  272
  286
  300
  315
  331
  348
  366
  384

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  872
  943
  1,018
  1,096
  1,176
  1,260
  1,347
  1,438
  1,532
  1,630
  1,732
  1,838
  1,949
  2,064
  2,184
  2,310
  2,441
  2,577
  2,720
  2,869
  3,025
  3,189
  3,359
  3,538
  3,725
  3,921
  4,126
  4,341
  4,566
  4,802
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  872
  943
  1,018
  1,096
  1,176
  1,260
  1,347
  1,438
  1,532
  1,630
  1,732
  1,838
  1,949
  2,064
  2,184
  2,310
  2,441
  2,577
  2,720
  2,869
  3,025
  3,189
  3,359
  3,538
  3,725
  3,921
  4,126
  4,341
  4,566
  4,802
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.627
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
Average production assets, $m
  478
  518
  559
  601
  646
  692
  740
  789
  841
  895
  951
  1,009
  1,070
  1,133
  1,199
  1,268
  1,340
  1,415
  1,493
  1,575
  1,661
  1,750
  1,844
  1,942
  2,045
  2,152
  2,265
  2,383
  2,506
  2,636
Working capital, $m
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
  213
  225
  236
  249
  262
  275
  290
Total debt, $m
  318
  361
  406
  452
  500
  550
  602
  656
  712
  771
  831
  895
  961
  1,029
  1,101
  1,176
  1,254
  1,335
  1,420
  1,509
  1,602
  1,699
  1,801
  1,908
  2,019
  2,136
  2,258
  2,386
  2,521
  2,661
Total liabilities, $m
  519
  562
  607
  653
  701
  751
  803
  857
  913
  972
  1,032
  1,096
  1,162
  1,230
  1,302
  1,377
  1,455
  1,536
  1,621
  1,710
  1,803
  1,900
  2,002
  2,109
  2,220
  2,337
  2,459
  2,587
  2,722
  2,862
Total equity, $m
  352
  381
  411
  443
  475
  509
  544
  581
  619
  659
  700
  743
  787
  834
  882
  933
  986
  1,041
  1,099
  1,159
  1,222
  1,288
  1,357
  1,429
  1,505
  1,584
  1,667
  1,754
  1,845
  1,940
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  871
  943
  1,018
  1,096
  1,176
  1,260
  1,347
  1,438
  1,532
  1,631
  1,732
  1,839
  1,949
  2,064
  2,184
  2,310
  2,441
  2,577
  2,720
  2,869
  3,025
  3,188
  3,359
  3,538
  3,725
  3,921
  4,126
  4,341
  4,567
  4,802
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.900
  0.950
  0.990
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.220
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  48
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  258
  272
  286
  300
  315
  331
  348
  366
  384
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  69
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
Funds from operations, $m
  118
  125
  134
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  380
  400
  420
  442
  465
  488
  513
  539
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  174
  184
  195
  195
  206
  218
  231
  244
  257
  271
  286
  301
  317
  334
  352
  370
  389
  409
  430
  452
  475
  500
  525
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
New CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -251
  -264
  -277
Free cash flow, $m
  49
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  147
  156
  164
  173
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  91
  96
  102
  108
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  147
  155
  164
  173
  183
  192
  203
  213
  225
  236
  249
  262
  275
  289
  304
  319
  335
  352
  370
  389
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  104
  111
  106
  112
  119
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  252
  265
  279
  293
Discount rate, %
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  59
  60
  59
  59
  58
  56
  54
  52
  49
  45
  38
  35
  32
  28
  25
  22
  18
  16
  13
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

US Ecology, Inc. is a provider of environmental services to commercial and government entities. The Company offers treatment, disposal and recycling of hazardous, non-hazardous and radioactive waste, as well as a range of field and industrial services. The Company operates in two business segments: Environmental Services, and Field & Industrial Services. Its Environmental Services segment provides a range of hazardous material management services, including transportation, recycling, treatment and disposal of hazardous and non-hazardous waste at Company-owned landfill, wastewater and other treatment facilities. The Company's Field & Industrial Services segment provides packaging and collection of hazardous waste and total waste management solutions at customer sites and through its transfer facilities. Its services include on-site management, waste characterization, transportation and disposal of non-hazardous and hazardous waste.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  US Ecology (ECOL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.9
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 98.2%
Total Debt to Equity 100%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 12.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
EBITDA Margin 22%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Operating Margin 15.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Net Profit Margin 7.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Effective Tax Rate 38.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.2%
Payout Ratio 47.1%

ECOL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ECOL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $504.042 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by US Ecology. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of US Ecology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ECOL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for ECOL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of US Ecology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of US Ecology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ECOL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ECOL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.5% for US Ecology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for US Ecology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ECOL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ECOL are equal to 87.4%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in US Ecology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ECOL is equal to 9.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $324.077 million for US Ecology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.985 million for US Ecology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of US Ecology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ US Ecology: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ What Kind Of Shareholders Own US Ecology Inc (NASDAQ:ECOL)?   [Oct-08-18 01:52PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ US Ecology Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.18 Per Share   [Oct-01-18 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of US Ecology Inc (NASDAQ:ECOL)   [Aug-31-18 08:05AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ US Ecology, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-03-18 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ US Ecology: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ US Ecology Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.18 Per Share   [Jul-02-18 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ US Ecology Board Reaffirms Capital Allocation Strategy   [May-29-18 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ US Ecology's Momentum Continues   [May-04-18 01:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ US Ecology: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ US Ecology Announces First Quarter 2018 Results   [May-03-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What You Must Know About US Ecology Incs (NASDAQ:ECOL) ROE   [Apr-28-18 07:06PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ US Ecology Inc (NASDAQ:ECOL): What Are The Future Prospects?   [Apr-14-18 09:19AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ US Ecology Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.18 Per Share   [Apr-02-18 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top 3 Nuclear Stocks for 2018   [Feb-16-18 02:52PM  Investopedia]
▶ US Ecology, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ US Ecology posts 4Q profit   [Feb-15-18 05:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ US Ecology, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [07:20AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ US Ecology misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-26-17 07:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ US Ecology meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-27-17 11:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ US Ecology meets 2Q profit forecasts   [06:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ The Best Stock in Idaho: US Ecology   [Jul-18-17 02:50PM  Kiplinger]
▶ ETFs with exposure to US Ecology, Inc. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ US Ecology misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-27-17 07:18PM  Associated Press]

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