Intrinsic value of Encore Capital Group - ECPG

Previous Close

$36.70

  Intrinsic Value

$58.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+60%

Previous close

$36.70

 
Intrinsic value

$58.81

 
Up/down potential

+60%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ECPG.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ECPG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.30
  14.27
  13.34
  12.51
  11.76
  11.08
  10.47
  9.93
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
Revenue, $m
  1,369
  1,564
  1,773
  1,994
  2,229
  2,476
  2,735
  3,007
  3,290
  3,586
  3,894
  4,215
  4,548
  4,895
  5,255
  5,629
  6,018
  6,422
  6,842
  7,280
  7,735
  8,209
  8,702
  9,217
  9,753
  10,313
  10,898
  11,508
  12,145
  12,811
Variable operating expenses, $m
  643
  731
  824
  924
  1,029
  1,140
  1,257
  1,378
  1,506
  1,639
  1,748
  1,892
  2,042
  2,198
  2,359
  2,527
  2,702
  2,883
  3,072
  3,268
  3,473
  3,686
  3,907
  4,138
  4,379
  4,631
  4,893
  5,167
  5,453
  5,752
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  314
  321
  328
  335
  342
  350
  358
  365
  373
  382
  390
  399
  407
  416
  426
  435
  444
  454
  464
  474
  485
  496
  506
  518
  529
  541
  552
  565
  577
  590
Total operating expenses, $m
  957
  1,052
  1,152
  1,259
  1,371
  1,490
  1,615
  1,743
  1,879
  2,021
  2,138
  2,291
  2,449
  2,614
  2,785
  2,962
  3,146
  3,337
  3,536
  3,742
  3,958
  4,182
  4,413
  4,656
  4,908
  5,172
  5,445
  5,732
  6,030
  6,342
Operating income, $m
  412
  513
  621
  735
  857
  986
  1,121
  1,263
  1,411
  1,566
  1,756
  1,924
  2,099
  2,281
  2,470
  2,667
  2,871
  3,084
  3,306
  3,537
  3,777
  4,028
  4,289
  4,561
  4,845
  5,142
  5,452
  5,776
  6,115
  6,469
EBITDA, $m
  941
  1,113
  1,297
  1,493
  1,701
  1,920
  2,150
  2,391
  2,642
  2,905
  3,179
  3,465
  3,761
  4,070
  4,391
  4,725
  5,071
  5,432
  5,807
  6,198
  6,605
  7,029
  7,470
  7,931
  8,411
  8,913
  9,436
  9,983
  10,555
  11,153
Interest expense (income), $m
  148
  229
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
  223
Earnings before tax, $m
  183
  290
  398
  513
  635
  763
  898
  1,040
  1,188
  1,343
  1,533
  1,701
  1,876
  2,058
  2,247
  2,444
  2,649
  2,862
  3,083
  3,314
  3,554
  3,805
  4,066
  4,338
  4,623
  4,920
  5,230
  5,554
  5,892
  6,247
Tax expense, $m
  49
  78
  107
  138
  171
  206
  243
  281
  321
  363
  414
  459
  507
  556
  607
  660
  715
  773
  833
  895
  960
  1,027
  1,098
  1,171
  1,248
  1,328
  1,412
  1,499
  1,591
  1,687
Net income, $m
  134
  212
  290
  374
  463
  557
  656
  759
  868
  981
  1,119
  1,242
  1,370
  1,502
  1,640
  1,784
  1,934
  2,089
  2,251
  2,419
  2,595
  2,778
  2,968
  3,167
  3,375
  3,591
  3,818
  4,054
  4,301
  4,560

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  5,004
  5,718
  6,481
  7,291
  8,148
  9,052
  10,000
  10,992
  12,029
  13,111
  14,237
  15,409
  16,628
  17,894
  19,211
  20,579
  22,000
  23,478
  25,015
  26,614
  28,278
  30,011
  31,816
  33,697
  35,659
  37,705
  39,841
  42,072
  44,402
  46,838
Working capital, $m
  -3,272
  -3,739
  -4,238
  -4,768
  -5,329
  -5,920
  -6,540
  -7,189
  -7,867
  -8,574
  -9,311
  -10,077
  -10,874
  -11,703
  -12,564
  -13,458
  -14,388
  -15,355
  -16,360
  -17,405
  -18,494
  -19,627
  -20,807
  -22,038
  -23,320
  -24,659
  -26,056
  -27,515
  -29,039
  -30,632
Total debt, $m
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
  2,891
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  134
  212
  290
  374
  463
  557
  656
  759
  868
  981
  1,119
  1,242
  1,370
  1,502
  1,640
  1,784
  1,934
  2,089
  2,251
  2,419
  2,595
  2,778
  2,968
  3,167
  3,375
  3,591
  3,818
  4,054
  4,301
  4,560
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  529
  600
  677
  758
  843
  934
  1,028
  1,128
  1,231
  1,340
  1,424
  1,541
  1,663
  1,789
  1,921
  2,058
  2,200
  2,348
  2,502
  2,661
  2,828
  3,001
  3,182
  3,370
  3,566
  3,771
  3,984
  4,207
  4,440
  4,684
Funds from operations, $m
  663
  812
  967
  1,132
  1,307
  1,491
  1,684
  1,887
  2,099
  2,320
  2,543
  2,783
  3,032
  3,292
  3,562
  3,842
  4,134
  4,437
  4,752
  5,081
  5,423
  5,779
  6,150
  6,537
  6,940
  7,362
  7,802
  8,261
  8,742
  9,244
Change in working capital, $m
  -434
  -467
  -499
  -530
  -561
  -591
  -620
  -649
  -678
  -707
  -737
  -766
  -797
  -828
  -861
  -895
  -930
  -967
  -1,005
  -1,046
  -1,088
  -1,133
  -1,180
  -1,230
  -1,283
  -1,338
  -1,397
  -1,459
  -1,524
  -1,593
Cash from operations, $m
  1,097
  1,279
  1,466
  1,662
  1,867
  2,081
  2,304
  2,536
  2,777
  3,027
  3,280
  3,549
  3,829
  4,120
  4,422
  4,737
  5,063
  5,403
  5,758
  6,126
  6,511
  6,912
  7,330
  7,767
  8,223
  8,700
  9,199
  9,720
  10,266
  10,837
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -434
  -500
  -572
  -648
  -729
  -815
  -905
  -1,000
  -1,099
  -1,203
  -1,311
  -1,424
  -1,541
  -1,663
  -1,789
  -1,921
  -2,058
  -2,200
  -2,348
  -2,502
  -2,661
  -2,828
  -3,001
  -3,182
  -3,370
  -3,566
  -3,771
  -3,984
  -4,207
  -4,440
New CAPEX, $m
  -663
  -714
  -763
  -811
  -857
  -903
  -948
  -993
  -1,037
  -1,081
  -1,126
  -1,172
  -1,219
  -1,267
  -1,316
  -1,368
  -1,422
  -1,478
  -1,537
  -1,599
  -1,664
  -1,733
  -1,805
  -1,881
  -1,962
  -2,047
  -2,136
  -2,231
  -2,330
  -2,436
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,097
  -1,214
  -1,335
  -1,459
  -1,586
  -1,718
  -1,853
  -1,993
  -2,136
  -2,284
  -2,437
  -2,596
  -2,760
  -2,930
  -3,105
  -3,289
  -3,480
  -3,678
  -3,885
  -4,101
  -4,325
  -4,561
  -4,806
  -5,063
  -5,332
  -5,613
  -5,907
  -6,215
  -6,537
  -6,876
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  65
  131
  203
  281
  364
  451
  544
  641
  743
  842
  954
  1,070
  1,191
  1,317
  1,448
  1,584
  1,725
  1,873
  2,026
  2,185
  2,351
  2,524
  2,704
  2,892
  3,088
  3,292
  3,505
  3,728
  3,961
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -77
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -77
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -78
  65
  131
  203
  281
  364
  451
  544
  641
  743
  842
  954
  1,070
  1,191
  1,317
  1,448
  1,584
  1,725
  1,873
  2,026
  2,185
  2,351
  2,524
  2,704
  2,892
  3,088
  3,292
  3,505
  3,728
  3,961
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -77
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  77
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -77
  65
  131
  203
  281
  364
  451
  544
  641
  743
  842
  954
  1,070
  1,191
  1,317
  1,448
  1,584
  1,725
  1,873
  2,026
  2,185
  2,351
  2,524
  2,704
  2,892
  3,088
  3,292
  3,505
  3,728
  3,961
Discount rate, %
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
  51.86
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -69
  50
  89
  118
  138
  149
  151
  147
  138
  125
  108
  92
  75
  60
  47
  35
  25
  18
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Encore Capital Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, is a specialty finance company providing debt recovery solutions for consumers and property owners across a range of financial assets. The Company operates through Portfolio Purchasing and Recovery segment. The Company's geographical segments include the United States, Europe and other. The Company's portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at discounts and manages them by partnering with individuals as they repay their obligations and work toward financial recovery. Defaulted receivables are consumers' unpaid financial commitments to credit originators, including banks, credit unions, consumer finance companies, commercial retailers, and telecommunication companies. Defaulted receivables also include receivables subject to bankruptcy proceedings. The Company through certain subsidiaries, is engaged in portfolio purchasing and recovery in the United States, including Puerto Rico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Encore Capital Group (ECPG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.2
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 502.5%
Total Debt to Equity 502.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 13.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 77%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.8%
EBITDA Margin 23.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
Operating Margin 23.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Net Profit Margin 7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Effective Tax Rate 66.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

ECPG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ECPG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1187 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Encore Capital Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Encore Capital Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ECPG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.6%, whose default value for ECPG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Encore Capital Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Encore Capital Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ECPG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $307 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ECPG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.7% for Encore Capital Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Encore Capital Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ECPG stock is equal to 0.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ECPG are equal to 365.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Encore Capital Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ECPG is equal to -239.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Encore Capital Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26 million for Encore Capital Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Encore Capital Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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