Intrinsic value of New Oriental Education&Technology Group - EDU

Previous Close

$58.82

  Intrinsic Value

$100.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+71%

Previous close

$58.82

 
Intrinsic value

$100.43

 
Up/down potential

+71%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EDU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.70
  20.03
  18.53
  17.17
  15.96
  14.86
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.82
  10.24
  9.72
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
Revenue, $m
  2,190
  2,629
  3,116
  3,651
  4,233
  4,862
  5,537
  6,256
  7,019
  7,824
  8,671
  9,559
  10,487
  11,457
  12,467
  13,519
  14,614
  15,751
  16,934
  18,163
  19,439
  20,767
  22,147
  23,582
  25,075
  26,629
  28,248
  29,935
  31,693
  33,527
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,730
  2,076
  2,460
  2,882
  3,341
  3,838
  4,370
  4,937
  5,539
  6,174
  6,839
  7,540
  8,272
  9,037
  9,834
  10,664
  11,527
  12,425
  13,357
  14,326
  15,334
  16,381
  17,469
  18,601
  19,779
  21,005
  22,282
  23,612
  24,999
  26,446
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
  171
  175
  178
  182
  186
  190
  195
  199
  203
  208
  212
  217
  222
  227
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,851
  2,199
  2,586
  3,011
  3,473
  3,972
  4,507
  5,077
  5,683
  6,321
  6,989
  7,693
  8,429
  9,197
  9,998
  10,831
  11,698
  12,600
  13,535
  14,508
  15,520
  16,571
  17,664
  18,800
  19,982
  21,213
  22,494
  23,829
  25,221
  26,673
Operating income, $m
  340
  430
  530
  640
  760
  890
  1,030
  1,179
  1,337
  1,504
  1,681
  1,866
  2,058
  2,260
  2,470
  2,688
  2,916
  3,152
  3,398
  3,654
  3,919
  4,196
  4,483
  4,782
  5,093
  5,417
  5,754
  6,105
  6,472
  6,855
EBITDA, $m
  406
  509
  624
  750
  887
  1,036
  1,195
  1,365
  1,545
  1,736
  1,936
  2,147
  2,367
  2,597
  2,836
  3,086
  3,346
  3,616
  3,896
  4,188
  4,491
  4,806
  5,134
  5,475
  5,830
  6,200
  6,585
  6,986
  7,404
  7,841
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  15
  31
  49
  69
  91
  114
  139
  166
  195
  225
  256
  289
  324
  360
  398
  437
  478
  521
  565
  611
  658
  708
  759
  813
  868
  926
  987
  1,050
  1,115
Earnings before tax, $m
  340
  415
  499
  591
  691
  800
  916
  1,039
  1,170
  1,309
  1,457
  1,609
  1,769
  1,936
  2,109
  2,290
  2,478
  2,674
  2,878
  3,089
  3,309
  3,537
  3,775
  4,023
  4,280
  4,548
  4,827
  5,119
  5,422
  5,739
Tax expense, $m
  92
  112
  135
  160
  187
  216
  247
  281
  316
  353
  393
  435
  478
  523
  570
  618
  669
  722
  777
  834
  893
  955
  1,019
  1,086
  1,156
  1,228
  1,303
  1,382
  1,464
  1,550
Net income, $m
  248
  303
  364
  431
  505
  584
  668
  759
  854
  955
  1,063
  1,175
  1,291
  1,413
  1,540
  1,672
  1,809
  1,952
  2,101
  2,255
  2,415
  2,582
  2,756
  2,936
  3,124
  3,320
  3,524
  3,737
  3,958
  4,190

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,623
  3,148
  3,731
  4,372
  5,070
  5,823
  6,631
  7,492
  8,406
  9,370
  10,384
  11,447
  12,560
  13,721
  14,931
  16,191
  17,502
  18,864
  20,280
  21,752
  23,281
  24,870
  26,523
  28,241
  30,030
  31,891
  33,830
  35,850
  37,956
  40,152
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,623
  3,148
  3,731
  4,372
  5,070
  5,823
  6,631
  7,492
  8,406
  9,370
  10,384
  11,447
  12,560
  13,721
  14,931
  16,191
  17,502
  18,864
  20,280
  21,752
  23,281
  24,870
  26,523
  28,241
  30,030
  31,891
  33,830
  35,850
  37,956
  40,152
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
Average production assets, $m
  329
  394
  467
  548
  635
  729
  831
  938
  1,053
  1,174
  1,301
  1,434
  1,573
  1,719
  1,870
  2,028
  2,192
  2,363
  2,540
  2,724
  2,916
  3,115
  3,322
  3,537
  3,761
  3,994
  4,237
  4,490
  4,754
  5,029
Working capital, $m
  -1,031
  -1,238
  -1,467
  -1,720
  -1,994
  -2,290
  -2,608
  -2,947
  -3,306
  -3,685
  -4,084
  -4,502
  -4,940
  -5,396
  -5,872
  -6,368
  -6,883
  -7,419
  -7,976
  -8,555
  -9,156
  -9,781
  -10,431
  -11,107
  -11,810
  -12,542
  -13,305
  -14,099
  -14,927
  -15,791
Total debt, $m
  269
  572
  909
  1,279
  1,681
  2,116
  2,582
  3,079
  3,606
  4,162
  4,748
  5,361
  6,003
  6,673
  7,371
  8,098
  8,854
  9,641
  10,458
  11,307
  12,189
  13,106
  14,060
  15,051
  16,083
  17,157
  18,276
  19,441
  20,656
  21,924
Total liabilities, $m
  1,513
  1,816
  2,153
  2,523
  2,925
  3,360
  3,826
  4,323
  4,850
  5,406
  5,992
  6,605
  7,247
  7,917
  8,615
  9,342
  10,098
  10,885
  11,702
  12,551
  13,433
  14,350
  15,304
  16,295
  17,327
  18,401
  19,520
  20,685
  21,900
  23,168
Total equity, $m
  1,109
  1,332
  1,578
  1,849
  2,145
  2,463
  2,805
  3,169
  3,556
  3,963
  4,392
  4,842
  5,313
  5,804
  6,316
  6,849
  7,403
  7,979
  8,578
  9,201
  9,848
  10,520
  11,219
  11,946
  12,703
  13,490
  14,310
  15,165
  16,055
  16,984
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,622
  3,148
  3,731
  4,372
  5,070
  5,823
  6,631
  7,492
  8,406
  9,369
  10,384
  11,447
  12,560
  13,721
  14,931
  16,191
  17,501
  18,864
  20,280
  21,752
  23,281
  24,870
  26,523
  28,241
  30,030
  31,891
  33,830
  35,850
  37,955
  40,152
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.240
  0.430
  0.580
  0.690
  0.780
  0.860
  0.920
  0.970
  1.010
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  248
  303
  364
  431
  505
  584
  668
  759
  854
  955
  1,063
  1,175
  1,291
  1,413
  1,540
  1,672
  1,809
  1,952
  2,101
  2,255
  2,415
  2,582
  2,756
  2,936
  3,124
  3,320
  3,524
  3,737
  3,958
  4,190
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  67
  79
  94
  110
  127
  145
  165
  186
  209
  232
  255
  281
  308
  337
  367
  398
  430
  463
  498
  534
  572
  611
  651
  694
  737
  783
  831
  880
  932
  986
Funds from operations, $m
  315
  383
  458
  541
  631
  729
  833
  945
  1,063
  1,188
  1,318
  1,456
  1,600
  1,750
  1,907
  2,070
  2,239
  2,415
  2,599
  2,789
  2,987
  3,193
  3,407
  3,630
  3,862
  4,103
  4,355
  4,617
  4,890
  5,176
Change in working capital, $m
  -184
  -207
  -229
  -252
  -274
  -296
  -318
  -339
  -359
  -379
  -399
  -418
  -437
  -457
  -476
  -496
  -515
  -536
  -557
  -579
  -601
  -625
  -650
  -676
  -703
  -732
  -762
  -794
  -828
  -864
Cash from operations, $m
  499
  589
  687
  793
  906
  1,025
  1,151
  1,284
  1,422
  1,567
  1,717
  1,874
  2,037
  2,207
  2,382
  2,565
  2,755
  2,951
  3,156
  3,368
  3,589
  3,818
  4,057
  4,306
  4,565
  4,835
  5,117
  5,411
  5,719
  6,039
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -53
  -64
  -77
  -92
  -107
  -125
  -143
  -163
  -184
  -206
  -230
  -255
  -281
  -308
  -337
  -367
  -398
  -430
  -463
  -498
  -534
  -572
  -611
  -651
  -694
  -737
  -783
  -831
  -880
  -932
New CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -275
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -112
  -130
  -150
  -172
  -194
  -219
  -244
  -271
  -298
  -327
  -357
  -388
  -420
  -453
  -489
  -525
  -562
  -601
  -640
  -682
  -726
  -771
  -818
  -866
  -918
  -970
  -1,026
  -1,084
  -1,144
  -1,207
Free cash flow, $m
  387
  459
  537
  621
  711
  806
  907
  1,013
  1,124
  1,240
  1,360
  1,486
  1,617
  1,753
  1,894
  2,041
  2,193
  2,351
  2,515
  2,686
  2,863
  3,047
  3,239
  3,439
  3,648
  3,865
  4,091
  4,328
  4,574
  4,832
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  269
  303
  337
  370
  403
  435
  466
  497
  527
  556
  585
  614
  642
  670
  698
  727
  756
  786
  817
  849
  882
  917
  954
  992
  1,032
  1,074
  1,119
  1,166
  1,215
  1,267
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  269
  303
  337
  370
  403
  435
  466
  497
  527
  556
  585
  614
  642
  670
  698
  727
  756
  786
  817
  849
  882
  917
  954
  992
  1,032
  1,074
  1,119
  1,166
  1,215
  1,267
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  656
  762
  874
  991
  1,114
  1,241
  1,373
  1,510
  1,651
  1,796
  1,945
  2,099
  2,259
  2,423
  2,592
  2,768
  2,949
  3,137
  3,332
  3,535
  3,745
  3,965
  4,193
  4,431
  4,679
  4,939
  5,210
  5,493
  5,789
  6,099
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -197
  -222
  -247
  -271
  -295
  -319
  -342
  -364
  -386
  -408
  -429
  -450
  -470
  -491
  -512
  -533
  -554
  -576
  -599
  -622
  -647
  -672
  -699
  -727
  -756
  -787
  -820
  -854
  -891
  -929
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  768
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,228
  540
  627
  720
  818
  922
  1,031
  1,146
  1,264
  1,388
  1,516
  1,650
  1,788
  1,932
  2,080
  2,235
  2,395
  2,561
  2,733
  2,912
  3,098
  3,292
  3,494
  3,704
  3,923
  4,151
  4,390
  4,639
  4,899
  5,170
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,177
  494
  546
  593
  634
  669
  697
  716
  726
  728
  720
  704
  680
  648
  611
  568
  521
  472
  421
  370
  320
  273
  229
  189
  153
  121
  94
  72
  53
  39
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. is a provider of private educational services in the People's Republic of China (the PRC). The Company provides educational services under its New Oriental brand. The Company operates through seven segments, which include language training and test preparation, primary and secondary school education, online education, content development and distribution, pre-school education, overseas study consulting services and study tour. The Company offers a range of educational programs, services and products, consisting of English and other foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the People's Republic of China and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, development and distribution of educational content, software and other technology, and online education.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New Oriental Education&Technology Group (EDU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.9
Price to Sales 5.2
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 65.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 27.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Total Capital 17.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Return On Equity 17.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.2%
EBITDA Margin 21.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 14.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Net Profit Margin 15.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

EDU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EDU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1799.509 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New Oriental Education&Technology Group . The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of New Oriental Education&Technology Group . You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EDU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EDU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New Oriental Education&Technology Group , is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New Oriental Education&Technology Group .
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EDU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $118 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EDU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for New Oriental Education&Technology Group .

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New Oriental Education&Technology Group . In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EDU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EDU are equal to 15%.

Life of production assets of 5.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New Oriental Education&Technology Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EDU is equal to -47.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1680.948 million for New Oriental Education&Technology Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 142.578 million for New Oriental Education&Technology Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New Oriental Education&Technology Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.4 billion.

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▶ New Oriental posts 1Q profit   [05:01AM  Associated Press]

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