Intrinsic value of New Oriental Education&Technology Group - EDU

Previous Close

$85.00

  Intrinsic Value

$66.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-22%

Previous close

$85.00

 
Intrinsic value

$66.24

 
Up/down potential

-22%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EDU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.70
  20.03
  18.53
  17.17
  15.96
  14.86
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.82
  10.24
  9.72
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
Revenue, $m
  2,191
  2,629
  3,117
  3,652
  4,234
  4,864
  5,539
  6,258
  7,021
  7,826
  8,673
  9,561
  10,490
  11,460
  12,471
  13,523
  14,618
  15,756
  16,938
  18,168
  19,445
  20,772
  22,153
  23,588
  25,082
  26,636
  28,256
  29,943
  31,702
  33,536
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,732
  2,079
  2,464
  2,886
  3,346
  3,843
  4,376
  4,945
  5,547
  6,183
  6,850
  7,551
  8,285
  9,051
  9,849
  10,680
  11,545
  12,444
  13,378
  14,348
  15,357
  16,406
  17,496
  18,629
  19,809
  21,037
  22,316
  23,648
  25,037
  26,486
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  118
  120
  123
  125
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
  149
  153
  156
  159
  163
  166
  170
  174
  178
  182
  186
  190
  194
  198
  202
  207
  212
  216
  221
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,850
  2,199
  2,587
  3,011
  3,474
  3,974
  4,510
  5,082
  5,687
  6,326
  6,996
  7,700
  8,438
  9,207
  10,008
  10,843
  11,711
  12,614
  13,552
  14,526
  15,539
  16,592
  17,686
  18,823
  20,007
  21,239
  22,523
  23,860
  25,253
  26,707
Operating income, $m
  341
  430
  530
  640
  760
  889
  1,028
  1,176
  1,334
  1,500
  1,677
  1,861
  2,053
  2,253
  2,462
  2,680
  2,906
  3,142
  3,387
  3,642
  3,906
  4,181
  4,467
  4,765
  5,075
  5,397
  5,733
  6,083
  6,448
  6,829
EBITDA, $m
  377
  473
  581
  699
  828
  967
  1,116
  1,276
  1,445
  1,624
  1,812
  2,009
  2,215
  2,431
  2,656
  2,890
  3,133
  3,386
  3,650
  3,923
  4,207
  4,503
  4,811
  5,130
  5,463
  5,810
  6,171
  6,547
  6,940
  7,349
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  15
  31
  49
  69
  91
  115
  140
  167
  195
  225
  257
  290
  325
  361
  399
  438
  479
  521
  566
  612
  659
  709
  760
  814
  870
  928
  988
  1,051
  1,117
Earnings before tax, $m
  341
  416
  499
  591
  691
  798
  914
  1,037
  1,167
  1,305
  1,452
  1,604
  1,763
  1,928
  2,101
  2,281
  2,468
  2,663
  2,866
  3,076
  3,295
  3,522
  3,758
  4,004
  4,261
  4,527
  4,805
  5,095
  5,397
  5,712
Tax expense, $m
  92
  112
  135
  160
  186
  216
  247
  280
  315
  352
  392
  433
  476
  521
  567
  616
  666
  719
  774
  830
  890
  951
  1,015
  1,081
  1,150
  1,222
  1,297
  1,376
  1,457
  1,542
Net income, $m
  249
  304
  364
  431
  504
  583
  667
  757
  852
  953
  1,060
  1,171
  1,287
  1,408
  1,534
  1,665
  1,802
  1,944
  2,092
  2,245
  2,405
  2,571
  2,744
  2,923
  3,110
  3,305
  3,508
  3,719
  3,940
  4,170

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,627
  3,153
  3,737
  4,379
  5,077
  5,832
  6,641
  7,504
  8,418
  9,384
  10,399
  11,464
  12,578
  13,741
  14,953
  16,215
  17,527
  18,892
  20,310
  21,784
  23,315
  24,907
  26,562
  28,283
  30,074
  31,938
  33,880
  35,903
  38,012
  40,211
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,627
  3,153
  3,737
  4,379
  5,077
  5,832
  6,641
  7,504
  8,418
  9,384
  10,399
  11,464
  12,578
  13,741
  14,953
  16,215
  17,527
  18,892
  20,310
  21,784
  23,315
  24,907
  26,562
  28,283
  30,074
  31,938
  33,880
  35,903
  38,012
  40,211
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
  0.834
Average production assets, $m
  340
  408
  483
  566
  656
  754
  858
  970
  1,088
  1,213
  1,344
  1,482
  1,626
  1,776
  1,933
  2,096
  2,266
  2,442
  2,625
  2,816
  3,014
  3,220
  3,434
  3,656
  3,888
  4,129
  4,380
  4,641
  4,914
  5,198
Working capital, $m
  9
  11
  12
  15
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
Total debt, $m
  272
  575
  912
  1,282
  1,686
  2,121
  2,588
  3,086
  3,613
  4,170
  4,756
  5,371
  6,014
  6,685
  7,384
  8,112
  8,869
  9,657
  10,475
  11,325
  12,209
  13,127
  14,082
  15,075
  16,109
  17,184
  18,305
  19,472
  20,689
  21,958
Total liabilities, $m
  1,516
  1,819
  2,156
  2,526
  2,930
  3,365
  3,832
  4,330
  4,857
  5,414
  6,000
  6,615
  7,258
  7,929
  8,628
  9,356
  10,113
  10,901
  11,719
  12,569
  13,453
  14,371
  15,326
  16,319
  17,353
  18,428
  19,549
  20,716
  21,933
  23,202
Total equity, $m
  1,111
  1,334
  1,581
  1,852
  2,148
  2,467
  2,809
  3,174
  3,561
  3,969
  4,399
  4,849
  5,321
  5,812
  6,325
  6,859
  7,414
  7,991
  8,591
  9,214
  9,862
  10,536
  11,236
  11,964
  12,721
  13,510
  14,331
  15,187
  16,079
  17,009
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,627
  3,153
  3,737
  4,378
  5,078
  5,832
  6,641
  7,504
  8,418
  9,383
  10,399
  11,464
  12,579
  13,741
  14,953
  16,215
  17,527
  18,892
  20,310
  21,783
  23,315
  24,907
  26,562
  28,283
  30,074
  31,938
  33,880
  35,903
  38,012
  40,211
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.240
  0.430
  0.580
  0.690
  0.780
  0.860
  0.920
  0.970
  1.010
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423
  0.423

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  249
  304
  364
  431
  504
  583
  667
  757
  852
  953
  1,060
  1,171
  1,287
  1,408
  1,534
  1,665
  1,802
  1,944
  2,092
  2,245
  2,405
  2,571
  2,744
  2,923
  3,110
  3,305
  3,508
  3,719
  3,940
  4,170
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  36
  43
  51
  59
  68
  78
  88
  99
  111
  124
  134
  148
  163
  178
  193
  210
  227
  244
  263
  282
  301
  322
  343
  366
  389
  413
  438
  464
  491
  520
Funds from operations, $m
  285
  346
  415
  490
  572
  660
  755
  856
  963
  1,076
  1,194
  1,319
  1,449
  1,585
  1,727
  1,875
  2,029
  2,188
  2,354
  2,527
  2,706
  2,893
  3,087
  3,289
  3,499
  3,718
  3,946
  4,183
  4,431
  4,690
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Cash from operations, $m
  283
  345
  413
  488
  570
  658
  752
  853
  960
  1,073
  1,191
  1,315
  1,446
  1,582
  1,723
  1,871
  2,024
  2,184
  2,350
  2,522
  2,701
  2,888
  3,081
  3,283
  3,493
  3,712
  3,939
  4,176
  4,424
  4,682
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -48
  -57
  -66
  -75
  -86
  -97
  -109
  -121
  -134
  -148
  -163
  -178
  -193
  -210
  -227
  -244
  -263
  -282
  -301
  -322
  -343
  -366
  -389
  -413
  -438
  -464
  -491
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -68
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -284
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -88
  -102
  -117
  -131
  -147
  -164
  -180
  -197
  -215
  -234
  -252
  -272
  -292
  -313
  -335
  -356
  -380
  -403
  -427
  -454
  -480
  -507
  -536
  -566
  -598
  -630
  -664
  -700
  -737
  -775
Free cash flow, $m
  196
  243
  297
  357
  423
  495
  572
  656
  745
  839
  938
  1,043
  1,153
  1,269
  1,389
  1,514
  1,645
  1,781
  1,922
  2,069
  2,222
  2,380
  2,546
  2,717
  2,896
  3,082
  3,275
  3,477
  3,687
  3,906
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  272
  304
  337
  370
  403
  435
  467
  498
  528
  557
  586
  614
  643
  671
  699
  728
  757
  787
  818
  850
  884
  918
  955
  993
  1,033
  1,076
  1,120
  1,167
  1,217
  1,269
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  272
  304
  337
  370
  403
  435
  467
  498
  528
  557
  586
  614
  643
  671
  699
  728
  757
  787
  818
  850
  884
  918
  955
  993
  1,033
  1,076
  1,120
  1,167
  1,217
  1,269
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  467
  546
  634
  727
  826
  930
  1,039
  1,153
  1,273
  1,396
  1,524
  1,658
  1,796
  1,940
  2,088
  2,242
  2,402
  2,568
  2,740
  2,919
  3,105
  3,299
  3,500
  3,710
  3,929
  4,157
  4,396
  4,644
  4,904
  5,176
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -198
  -223
  -247
  -271
  -296
  -319
  -342
  -365
  -387
  -408
  -430
  -450
  -471
  -492
  -513
  -534
  -555
  -577
  -600
  -623
  -648
  -673
  -700
  -728
  -758
  -789
  -821
  -856
  -892
  -930
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  768
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  47
  54
  61
  69
  77
  86
  95
  105
  115
  126
  137
  149
  161
  173
  186
  200
  214
  228
  244
  259
  276
  293
  311
  329
  349
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,037
  324
  387
  455
  530
  611
  697
  789
  886
  988
  1,095
  1,207
  1,325
  1,448
  1,576
  1,709
  1,847
  1,991
  2,140
  2,296
  2,458
  2,626
  2,800
  2,982
  3,172
  3,369
  3,574
  3,789
  4,012
  4,245
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  994
  296
  336
  375
  411
  443
  471
  493
  509
  518
  520
  515
  504
  486
  463
  434
  402
  367
  330
  292
  254
  218
  184
  152
  123
  98
  77
  59
  44
  32
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. is a provider of private educational services in the People's Republic of China (the PRC). The Company provides educational services under its New Oriental brand. The Company operates through seven segments, which include language training and test preparation, primary and secondary school education, online education, content development and distribution, pre-school education, overseas study consulting services and study tour. The Company offers a range of educational programs, services and products, consisting of English and other foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the People's Republic of China and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, development and distribution of educational content, software and other technology, and online education.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New Oriental Education&Technology Group (EDU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48.9
Price to Sales 7.4
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 65.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 27.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Total Capital 17.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Return On Equity 17.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.2%
EBITDA Margin 21.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 14.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Net Profit Margin 15.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

EDU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EDU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1800 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New Oriental Education&Technology Group . The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of New Oriental Education&Technology Group . You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EDU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EDU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New Oriental Education&Technology Group , is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New Oriental Education&Technology Group .
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EDU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $115 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EDU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for New Oriental Education&Technology Group .

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New Oriental Education&Technology Group . In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EDU stock is equal to 1.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EDU are equal to 15.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New Oriental Education&Technology Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EDU is equal to 0.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1681 million for New Oriental Education&Technology Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 158 million for New Oriental Education&Technology Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New Oriental Education&Technology Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.4 billion.

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