Intrinsic value of Engility Holdings - EGL

Previous Close

$34.91

  Intrinsic Value

$30.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-11%

Previous close

$34.91

 
Intrinsic value

$30.91

 
Up/down potential

-11%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,971
  2,016
  2,068
  2,126
  2,190
  2,261
  2,338
  2,421
  2,511
  2,608
  2,711
  2,821
  2,938
  3,062
  3,195
  3,335
  3,483
  3,639
  3,805
  3,980
  4,164
  4,359
  4,564
  4,780
  5,008
  5,247
  5,499
  5,765
  6,044
  6,338
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,852
  1,891
  1,936
  1,986
  2,042
  2,103
  2,170
  2,242
  2,320
  2,404
  2,350
  2,445
  2,547
  2,655
  2,769
  2,890
  3,019
  3,155
  3,298
  3,450
  3,610
  3,778
  3,956
  4,143
  4,341
  4,548
  4,767
  4,997
  5,239
  5,494
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,852
  1,891
  1,936
  1,986
  2,042
  2,103
  2,170
  2,242
  2,320
  2,404
  2,350
  2,445
  2,547
  2,655
  2,769
  2,890
  3,019
  3,155
  3,298
  3,450
  3,610
  3,778
  3,956
  4,143
  4,341
  4,548
  4,767
  4,997
  5,239
  5,494
Operating income, $m
  119
  125
  132
  140
  148
  158
  168
  179
  191
  204
  361
  376
  391
  408
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
  530
  555
  580
  608
  637
  667
  699
  732
  768
  805
  844
EBITDA, $m
  415
  425
  436
  448
  461
  476
  493
  510
  529
  549
  571
  594
  619
  645
  673
  702
  734
  767
  802
  838
  877
  918
  961
  1,007
  1,055
  1,105
  1,159
  1,214
  1,273
  1,335
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  126
  132
  139
  147
  154
  163
  171
  181
  190
  201
  211
  223
  235
  248
  261
  275
  290
Earnings before tax, $m
  47
  51
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  93
  101
  253
  262
  272
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
  530
  554
Tax expense, $m
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
Net income, $m
  34
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  185
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  339
  354
  370
  387
  405

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,066
  2,113
  2,167
  2,228
  2,296
  2,370
  2,451
  2,538
  2,632
  2,733
  2,841
  2,957
  3,080
  3,210
  3,349
  3,495
  3,651
  3,815
  3,988
  4,172
  4,365
  4,569
  4,784
  5,010
  5,249
  5,500
  5,764
  6,043
  6,335
  6,643
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,066
  2,113
  2,167
  2,228
  2,296
  2,370
  2,451
  2,538
  2,632
  2,733
  2,841
  2,957
  3,080
  3,210
  3,349
  3,495
  3,651
  3,815
  3,988
  4,172
  4,365
  4,569
  4,784
  5,010
  5,249
  5,500
  5,764
  6,043
  6,335
  6,643
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
Average production assets, $m
  1,527
  1,562
  1,603
  1,648
  1,698
  1,752
  1,812
  1,877
  1,946
  2,021
  2,101
  2,186
  2,277
  2,373
  2,476
  2,584
  2,699
  2,821
  2,949
  3,084
  3,227
  3,378
  3,537
  3,704
  3,881
  4,067
  4,262
  4,468
  4,684
  4,912
Working capital, $m
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
Total debt, $m
  993
  1,025
  1,061
  1,102
  1,148
  1,197
  1,252
  1,310
  1,374
  1,441
  1,514
  1,592
  1,674
  1,762
  1,855
  1,953
  2,058
  2,168
  2,285
  2,408
  2,538
  2,675
  2,819
  2,972
  3,132
  3,301
  3,478
  3,665
  3,862
  4,069
Total liabilities, $m
  1,388
  1,420
  1,457
  1,498
  1,543
  1,593
  1,647
  1,706
  1,769
  1,837
  1,909
  1,987
  2,069
  2,157
  2,250
  2,349
  2,453
  2,564
  2,680
  2,803
  2,933
  3,070
  3,215
  3,367
  3,527
  3,696
  3,874
  4,061
  4,257
  4,464
Total equity, $m
  678
  693
  711
  731
  753
  777
  804
  833
  863
  897
  932
  970
  1,010
  1,053
  1,098
  1,146
  1,197
  1,251
  1,308
  1,368
  1,432
  1,499
  1,569
  1,643
  1,722
  1,804
  1,891
  1,982
  2,078
  2,179
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,066
  2,113
  2,168
  2,229
  2,296
  2,370
  2,451
  2,539
  2,632
  2,734
  2,841
  2,957
  3,079
  3,210
  3,348
  3,495
  3,650
  3,815
  3,988
  4,171
  4,365
  4,569
  4,784
  5,010
  5,249
  5,500
  5,765
  6,043
  6,335
  6,643
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.510
  1.520
  1.540
  1.560
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.620
  1.640
  1.660
  1.670
  1.690
  1.700
  1.720
  1.730
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
  1.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  185
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  339
  354
  370
  387
  405
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  296
  300
  304
  308
  313
  319
  325
  331
  338
  345
  210
  219
  228
  237
  248
  258
  270
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  354
  370
  388
  407
  426
  447
  468
  491
Funds from operations, $m
  330
  337
  344
  352
  361
  371
  382
  393
  406
  419
  395
  410
  426
  443
  462
  481
  502
  523
  546
  570
  596
  623
  651
  681
  712
  745
  780
  817
  855
  896
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  331
  338
  345
  354
  363
  373
  384
  395
  408
  422
  397
  413
  429
  447
  465
  485
  506
  527
  551
  575
  601
  628
  656
  687
  718
  752
  787
  824
  863
  904
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -150
  -153
  -156
  -160
  -165
  -170
  -175
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -248
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -370
  -388
  -407
  -426
  -447
  -468
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -195
  -206
  -216
  -228
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -179
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -356
  -373
  -391
  -410
  -430
  -451
  -474
  -497
  -521
  -546
  -574
  -602
  -632
  -663
  -696
Free cash flow, $m
  152
  150
  149
  148
  148
  148
  149
  150
  151
  152
  115
  118
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  140
  145
  149
  154
  160
  165
  172
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  27
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  77
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  27
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  77
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  179
  182
  185
  189
  193
  198
  203
  208
  214
  220
  188
  195
  202
  210
  219
  227
  237
  246
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  318
  332
  347
  362
  379
  396
  415
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash available for distribution, $m
  167
  166
  168
  169
  171
  174
  177
  180
  183
  187
  153
  157
  162
  167
  173
  179
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  243
  254
  264
  276
  288
  300
  314
Discount rate, %
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  153
  139
  126
  114
  102
  90
  80
  69
  60
  51
  34
  28
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Engility Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated solutions and services for the U.S. government, supporting customers throughout defense, intelligence, space, federal civilian, and international communities. It offers various engineering, technical, analytical, advisory, training, logistics, and support services worldwide. The company offers services in the areas of specialized technical consulting, program and business support, engineering and technology lifecycle support, information technology modernization and sustainment, supply chain and logistics management, and training and education. It provides specialized technical consulting services for technology research and analysis, and policy and operational implementation; and program and business support services comprising strategic planning, acquisition support, program management, and enterprise transformation. The company also offers engineering and technology lifecycle support services, such as systems engineering and integration, modeling and simulation, test and evaluation, and software engineering and sustainment, as well as hardware engineering, sustainment, and modernization. In addition, it provides information technology modernization and sustainment services, including project management, software development and integration, hardware and network implementation, network and information security, cybersecurity, vulnerability assessments, information assurance, mobile application development, enterprise architecture, and secure cloud computing. Further, the company provides solutions for logistics, warehousing, asset management, kitting, shipping, and receiving; and defines, designs, develops, implements, and assesses training and education solutions. Engility Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Chantilly, Virginia.Engility Holdings, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Birch Partners, LP.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Engility Holdings (EGL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

EGL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1932 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Engility Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Engility Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for EGL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Engility Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Engility Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.5% for Engility Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Engility Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGL stock is equal to 0.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGL are equal to 77.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Engility Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGL is equal to -2.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $665 million for Engility Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37 million for Engility Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Engility Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Here's how Engility's pivot to a 'best value' business went in the first quarter   [May-02-18 03:02PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Engility Holdings: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ Engility unveils MetaSift   [07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Engility to Announce First Quarter 2018   [Mar-29-18 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 5th   [Mar-05-18 08:48AM  Zacks]
▶ Engility Holdings reports 4Q loss   [Mar-01-18 05:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here are the D.C.-area stocks getting pummeled in the market rout   [Feb-06-18 03:21PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ WBB taps ex-Engility exec as CFO   [Jan-23-18 02:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Correction: Earns-Engility Holdings story   [Nov-07-17 11:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Engility Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-02-17 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Top Defense Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Oct-09-17 06:04PM  Zacks]
▶ Astronaut scholars tour Goddard Space Flight Center   [Sep-19-17 07:30AM  Business Wire]
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