Intrinsic value of EastGroup Properties - EGP

Previous Close

$92.67

  Intrinsic Value

$29.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$92.67

 
Intrinsic value

$29.20

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EGP.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  297
  320
  345
  371
  397
  425
  453
  483
  514
  546
  580
  615
  652
  690
  729
  771
  814
  859
  906
  956
  1,007
  1,061
  1,118
  1,177
  1,239
  1,304
  1,372
  1,443
  1,518
  1,596
Variable operating expenses, $m
  186
  200
  215
  230
  246
  263
  280
  298
  317
  336
  350
  371
  393
  416
  440
  465
  491
  518
  547
  577
  608
  640
  674
  710
  747
  787
  828
  871
  916
  963
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
Total operating expenses, $m
  193
  207
  222
  238
  254
  271
  288
  306
  326
  345
  359
  380
  402
  425
  450
  475
  501
  528
  558
  588
  619
  651
  686
  722
  759
  799
  841
  884
  929
  976
Operating income, $m
  104
  113
  123
  133
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  221
  235
  249
  264
  280
  296
  313
  330
  349
  368
  389
  410
  432
  455
  479
  505
  532
  560
  589
  620
EBITDA, $m
  321
  347
  375
  403
  432
  462
  494
  527
  561
  596
  634
  672
  712
  754
  798
  844
  891
  941
  993
  1,048
  1,105
  1,164
  1,226
  1,292
  1,360
  1,432
  1,507
  1,585
  1,668
  1,754
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  12
  10
  8
  6
  3
  1
  -1
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
Earnings before tax, $m
  92
  104
  115
  127
  140
  153
  167
  181
  195
  211
  233
  250
  267
  285
  304
  324
  344
  366
  388
  412
  436
  462
  489
  517
  546
  577
  610
  643
  679
  716
Tax expense, $m
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
Net income, $m
  67
  76
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  132
  143
  154
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
  267
  283
  301
  318
  337
  357
  377
  399
  421
  445
  470
  496
  523

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  -343
  -370
  -399
  -428
  -459
  -491
  -524
  -559
  -594
  -632
  -671
  -711
  -753
  -797
  -843
  -891
  -941
  -993
  -1,048
  -1,105
  -1,165
  -1,227
  -1,292
  -1,361
  -1,432
  -1,507
  -1,586
  -1,668
  -1,755
  -1,845
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  -343
  -370
  -399
  -428
  -459
  -491
  -524
  -559
  -594
  -632
  -671
  -711
  -753
  -797
  -843
  -891
  -941
  -993
  -1,048
  -1,105
  -1,165
  -1,227
  -1,292
  -1,361
  -1,432
  -1,507
  -1,586
  -1,668
  -1,755
  -1,845
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  -0.866
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.867
  -0.865
  -0.866
  -0.865
  -0.864
  -0.865
  -0.864
  -0.864
  -0.865
  -0.866
  -0.866
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.864
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
  -0.865
Average production assets, $m
  2,109
  2,277
  2,452
  2,633
  2,822
  3,018
  3,222
  3,434
  3,654
  3,884
  4,123
  4,371
  4,631
  4,901
  5,183
  5,478
  5,785
  6,106
  6,442
  6,792
  7,159
  7,543
  7,945
  8,365
  8,806
  9,267
  9,750
  10,256
  10,786
  11,343
Working capital, $m
  -1,301
  -1,405
  -1,513
  -1,625
  -1,741
  -1,862
  -1,988
  -2,119
  -2,255
  -2,396
  -2,544
  -2,697
  -2,857
  -3,024
  -3,198
  -3,380
  -3,569
  -3,767
  -3,974
  -4,191
  -4,417
  -4,654
  -4,902
  -5,161
  -5,433
  -5,718
  -6,016
  -6,328
  -6,655
  -6,998
Total debt, $m
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
Total liabilities, $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Total equity, $m
  -337
  -364
  -392
  -421
  -451
  -483
  -515
  -549
  -584
  -621
  -659
  -699
  -740
  -784
  -829
  -876
  -925
  -976
  -1,030
  -1,086
  -1,145
  -1,206
  -1,270
  -1,338
  -1,408
  -1,482
  -1,559
  -1,640
  -1,725
  -1,814
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  -343
  -370
  -399
  -428
  -459
  -491
  -524
  -558
  -594
  -632
  -670
  -711
  -753
  -798
  -843
  -891
  -941
  -993
  -1,048
  -1,105
  -1,165
  -1,227
  -1,292
  -1,361
  -1,432
  -1,508
  -1,586
  -1,668
  -1,755
  -1,845
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983
  0.983

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  67
  76
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  132
  143
  154
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
  267
  283
  301
  318
  337
  357
  377
  399
  421
  445
  470
  496
  523
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  217
  234
  252
  270
  289
  308
  329
  350
  372
  395
  412
  437
  463
  490
  518
  548
  578
  611
  644
  679
  716
  754
  794
  837
  881
  927
  975
  1,026
  1,079
  1,134
Funds from operations, $m
  285
  310
  336
  363
  391
  420
  450
  482
  515
  549
  583
  620
  658
  698
  740
  784
  830
  878
  928
  980
  1,034
  1,091
  1,151
  1,214
  1,279
  1,348
  1,420
  1,495
  1,574
  1,657
Change in working capital, $m
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
Cash from operations, $m
  384
  414
  444
  475
  507
  541
  576
  613
  651
  690
  730
  773
  818
  865
  914
  966
  1,019
  1,076
  1,135
  1,196
  1,261
  1,328
  1,399
  1,473
  1,551
  1,633
  1,718
  1,808
  1,902
  2,000
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -195
  -211
  -228
  -245
  -263
  -282
  -302
  -322
  -343
  -365
  -388
  -412
  -437
  -463
  -490
  -518
  -548
  -578
  -611
  -644
  -679
  -716
  -754
  -794
  -837
  -881
  -927
  -975
  -1,026
  -1,079
New CAPEX, $m
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -402
  -420
  -440
  -461
  -483
  -506
  -531
  -556
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -356
  -379
  -403
  -427
  -452
  -478
  -506
  -534
  -563
  -594
  -627
  -661
  -696
  -733
  -772
  -812
  -855
  -899
  -947
  -995
  -1,046
  -1,100
  -1,156
  -1,214
  -1,277
  -1,342
  -1,410
  -1,481
  -1,557
  -1,635
Free cash flow, $m
  29
  35
  41
  48
  55
  63
  70
  78
  87
  95
  103
  112
  122
  132
  142
  153
  164
  176
  188
  201
  215
  229
  243
  258
  274
  291
  308
  326
  346
  365
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  7
  13
  19
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  58
  64
  72
  79
  88
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
  244
  259
  275
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  312
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Cash available for distribution, $m
  340
  34
  41
  48
  55
  62
  70
  78
  86
  95
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  164
  175
  187
  200
  214
  227
  242
  257
  273
  290
  307
  325
  344
  364
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  322
  30
  34
  37
  39
  41
  42
  42
  42
  41
  39
  37
  35
  32
  29
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EastGroup Properties, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is focused on the development, acquisition and operation of industrial properties in various Sunbelt markets across the United States with an emphasis in the states of Florida, Texas, Arizona, California and North Carolina. The Company holds its properties as long-term investments but may determine to sell certain properties that no longer meet its investment criteria. The Company may provide financing in connection with such sales of property if market conditions require. In addition, the Company may provide financing to a partner or co-owner in connection with an acquisition of real estate in certain situations. The Company owned 327 industrial properties and one office building as of December 31, 2016. The Company's properties in North Carolina include Lindbergh Business Park, Nations Ford Business Park and Airport Commerce Center in Charlotte area.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EastGroup Properties (EGP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.2
Price to Sales 12.2
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -26.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 172.7%
Total Debt to Equity 174.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 16.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.2%
EBITDA Margin 82.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.3%
Operating Margin 34.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 37.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Net Profit Margin 37.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 84.4%

EGP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $274 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EastGroup Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of EastGroup Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for EGP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EastGroup Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EastGroup Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $7 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 442.7% for EastGroup Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EastGroup Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGP stock is equal to 2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGP are equal to 710.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EastGroup Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGP is equal to -438.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for EastGroup Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34 million for EastGroup Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EastGroup Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ EastGroup Properties: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-19-18 04:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ At US$094.76, Is EastGroup Properties Inc (NYSE:EGP) A Buy?   [Jun-26-18 12:42PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Best Real Estate Dividend Paying Stock in May   [May-28-18 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Round Rock to get first phase of 30-acre industrial park later this year   [Apr-25-18 08:52AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ EastGroup Properties: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-19-18 04:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Best Buy plans home-delivery hub in southwest Charlotte   [Apr-11-18 02:49PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ EastGroup Properties, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-01-18 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ EastGroup Properties reports 4Q results   [Jan-31-18 05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Eastgroup Properties Sees RS Rating Rise To 74   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ EastGroup Properties reports 3Q results   [Oct-19-17 04:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ These 3 Stocks Just Raised Their Dividends   [Sep-11-17 07:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ EastGroup Properties reports 2Q results   [Jul-25-17 10:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces Recent Business Activity   [May-30-17 05:09PM  PR Newswire]
▶ EastGroup Properties reports 1Q results   [Apr-20-17 04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ EastGroup Properties Announces CFO Transition   [Mar-03-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
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