Intrinsic value of Eagle Pharmaceuticals - EGRX

Previous Close

$51.99

  Intrinsic Value

$136.85

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+163%

Previous close

$51.99

 
Intrinsic value

$136.85

 
Up/down potential

+163%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGRX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  186.36
  22.00
  20.30
  18.77
  17.39
  16.15
  15.04
  14.03
  13.13
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.33
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
Revenue, $m
  189
  231
  277
  329
  387
  449
  517
  589
  667
  749
  836
  927
  1,023
  1,123
  1,228
  1,337
  1,450
  1,569
  1,691
  1,819
  1,952
  2,090
  2,233
  2,382
  2,537
  2,699
  2,866
  3,041
  3,223
  3,413
  3,611
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  134
  161
  190
  223
  258
  296
  337
  381
  428
  477
  524
  579
  635
  695
  756
  821
  888
  957
  1,029
  1,104
  1,183
  1,264
  1,348
  1,436
  1,527
  1,622
  1,721
  1,824
  1,931
  2,043
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  136
  161
  188
  218
  252
  287
  326
  368
  413
  460
  510
  558
  614
  671
  732
  794
  860
  928
  998
  1,071
  1,147
  1,227
  1,309
  1,394
  1,483
  1,575
  1,671
  1,772
  1,876
  1,984
  2,098
Operating income, $m
  53
  69
  89
  111
  135
  162
  190
  221
  254
  289
  325
  368
  409
  452
  496
  543
  591
  641
  694
  748
  805
  864
  925
  988
  1,055
  1,123
  1,195
  1,270
  1,348
  1,429
  1,513
EBITDA, $m
  55
  75
  95
  117
  141
  168
  197
  228
  261
  297
  334
  373
  414
  458
  503
  550
  599
  650
  703
  758
  815
  874
  936
  1,001
  1,068
  1,137
  1,210
  1,285
  1,364
  1,446
  1,532
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
Earnings before tax, $m
  53
  69
  89
  110
  134
  159
  187
  217
  249
  283
  319
  361
  400
  442
  485
  531
  578
  627
  678
  731
  786
  843
  903
  965
  1,029
  1,096
  1,166
  1,239
  1,314
  1,393
  1,476
Tax expense, $m
  -28
  19
  24
  30
  36
  43
  51
  59
  67
  76
  86
  97
  108
  119
  131
  143
  156
  169
  183
  197
  212
  228
  244
  260
  278
  296
  315
  334
  355
  376
  398
Net income, $m
  81
  51
  65
  80
  98
  116
  137
  159
  182
  207
  233
  263
  292
  323
  354
  387
  422
  458
  495
  533
  574
  615
  659
  704
  751
  800
  851
  904
  959
  1,017
  1,077

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  214
  196
  236
  281
  329
  383
  440
  502
  568
  638
  712
  790
  871
  956
  1,046
  1,139
  1,235
  1,336
  1,441
  1,550
  1,663
  1,780
  1,902
  2,029
  2,161
  2,299
  2,442
  2,590
  2,746
  2,907
  3,076
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  161
  196
  236
  281
  329
  383
  440
  502
  568
  638
  712
  790
  871
  956
  1,046
  1,139
  1,235
  1,336
  1,441
  1,550
  1,663
  1,780
  1,902
  2,029
  2,161
  2,299
  2,442
  2,590
  2,746
  2,907
  3,076
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.174
  1.179
  1.174
  1.171
  1.176
  1.172
  1.175
  1.173
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.173
  1.175
  1.175
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.173
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
  1.174
Average production assets, $m
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  52
  60
  67
  76
  84
  94
  103
  113
  124
  135
  146
  158
  171
  184
  197
  211
  226
  241
  256
  273
  290
  307
  326
  345
  365
Working capital, $m
  68
  18
  22
  26
  31
  35
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  81
  89
  97
  106
  115
  124
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  270
  285
Total debt, $m
  0
  14
  29
  47
  66
  87
  109
  133
  159
  186
  215
  246
  278
  311
  346
  382
  420
  459
  500
  543
  587
  633
  681
  730
  782
  836
  892
  950
  1,011
  1,074
  1,140
Total liabilities, $m
  63
  77
  92
  110
  129
  150
  172
  196
  222
  249
  278
  309
  341
  374
  409
  445
  483
  522
  563
  606
  650
  696
  744
  793
  845
  899
  955
  1,013
  1,074
  1,137
  1,203
Total equity, $m
  151
  120
  144
  171
  201
  233
  268
  306
  346
  388
  433
  481
  531
  583
  637
  693
  752
  814
  877
  944
  1,013
  1,084
  1,158
  1,236
  1,316
  1,400
  1,487
  1,578
  1,672
  1,771
  1,873
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  214
  197
  236
  281
  330
  383
  440
  502
  568
  637
  711
  790
  872
  957
  1,046
  1,138
  1,235
  1,336
  1,440
  1,550
  1,663
  1,780
  1,902
  2,029
  2,161
  2,299
  2,442
  2,591
  2,746
  2,908
  3,076
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.120
  0.200
  0.270
  0.330
  0.370
  0.410
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609
  0.609

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  81
  51
  65
  80
  98
  116
  137
  159
  182
  207
  233
  263
  292
  323
  354
  387
  422
  458
  495
  533
  574
  615
  659
  704
  751
  800
  851
  904
  959
  1,017
  1,077
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  44
  56
  70
  86
  104
  123
  143
  166
  189
  215
  241
  268
  298
  328
  361
  394
  429
  466
  504
  543
  584
  626
  671
  716
  764
  814
  866
  920
  976
  1,035
  1,096
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  53
  53
  66
  82
  99
  118
  138
  160
  183
  208
  234
  261
  290
  321
  352
  386
  420
  456
  494
  533
  573
  615
  659
  705
  752
  801
  853
  906
  962
  1,020
  1,080
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  47
  61
  75
  91
  109
  129
  150
  172
  196
  222
  247
  276
  305
  336
  368
  402
  437
  473
  511
  550
  591
  634
  678
  724
  772
  822
  874
  928
  984
  1,043
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -34
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -26
  61
  76
  93
  111
  130
  151
  174
  198
  224
  251
  278
  307
  339
  371
  405
  440
  476
  514
  554
  595
  637
  682
  728
  776
  826
  878
  932
  988
  1,047
  1,109
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -61
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -103
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  93
  52
  66
  81
  98
  116
  136
  158
  181
  206
  230
  258
  287
  317
  348
  381
  415
  450
  487
  526
  566
  607
  650
  695
  742
  791
  841
  894
  949
  1,006
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  89
  47
  57
  67
  76
  84
  92
  99
  104
  108
  109
  110
  109
  106
  102
  97
  90
  83
  75
  67
  59
  50
  43
  35
  29
  23
  18
  14
  10
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Eagle Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on developing and commercializing injectable products in the critical care and oncology areas. The Company's product portfolio includes products, including Argatroban; Ryanodex; docetaxel injection, non-alcohol formulation; and Bendeka. Its advanced candidates include EP-3101 (bendamustine Resistance Temperature Detectors (RTD)) (EP-3101), EP-4104 (dantrolene sodium for exertional heat stroke (EHS)) (EP-4104), EGL-4104-C-1702 (dantrolene sodium for drug induced hyperthermia), EP-5101 (pemetrexed) (EP-5101) and EGL-5385-C-1701 (fulvestrant). Its product portfolio focuses on oncology, critical care and orphan diseases. Bendamustine is an alkylating agent approved for use in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), and indolent B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), that has progressed during or within six months of treatment with rituximab or a rituximab-containing regimen.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Eagle Pharmaceuticals (EGRX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.8
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 186.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 700%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 47.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Total Capital 67.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Return On Equity 67.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.7%
EBITDA Margin 29.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.1%
Operating Margin 28%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23%
Pre-Tax Margin 28%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.5%
Net Profit Margin 42.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.8%
Effective Tax Rate -52.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

EGRX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGRX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $189 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Eagle Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Eagle Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGRX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EGRX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Eagle Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Eagle Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGRX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGRX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Eagle Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Eagle Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGRX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGRX are equal to 10.1%.

Life of production assets of 19.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Eagle Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGRX is equal to 7.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $151 million for Eagle Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.169 million for Eagle Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Eagle Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals Announces New Patent for RYANODEX   [Oct-17-17 07:33AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Biotech Values in a Fully Valued Market   [Oct-15-17 12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 10:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Stocks the Smartest Investors Are Buying Right Now   [Jul-20-17 01:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Key FDA Events to Watch Out for in Jul 2017   [Jul-03-17 08:13AM  Zacks]
▶ These 3 Stocks Are Up Over 500% in the Last 3 Years   [Jun-25-17 09:42AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Teva Pharma, Eagle Pharma, Depomed Among Slew Getting Price Haircuts   [May-25-17 04:10PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Biotech And Pharma Industry And Stock News   [01:38PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals posts 1Q profit   [May-08-17 06:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Top Biotech Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Mar-26-17 06:43AM  Motley Fool]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 6th   [Mar-06-17 10:10AM  Zacks]
▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals posts 4Q profit   [07:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals Pemetrexed NDA Submitted for Review   [Jan-03-17 06:50AM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Arent Crazy About Photronics, Inc. (PLAB) Anymore   [Dec-05-16 02:04AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of EGRX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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