Intrinsic value of Eagle Pharmaceuticals - EGRX

Previous Close

$79.36

  Intrinsic Value

$153.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+93%

Previous close

$79.36

 
Intrinsic value

$153.51

 
Up/down potential

+93%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGRX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.90
  22.91
  21.12
  19.51
  18.06
  16.75
  15.58
  14.52
  13.57
  12.71
  11.94
  11.24
  10.62
  10.06
  9.55
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  296
  364
  441
  527
  622
  726
  839
  961
  1,091
  1,230
  1,377
  1,531
  1,694
  1,864
  2,042
  2,228
  2,422
  2,623
  2,833
  3,051
  3,277
  3,512
  3,757
  4,011
  4,275
  4,550
  4,836
  5,133
  5,443
  5,767
Variable operating expenses, $m
  206
  252
  303
  361
  426
  496
  572
  654
  742
  836
  928
  1,033
  1,142
  1,257
  1,377
  1,503
  1,633
  1,769
  1,910
  2,057
  2,210
  2,369
  2,533
  2,705
  2,883
  3,068
  3,261
  3,462
  3,671
  3,889
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Total operating expenses, $m
  210
  256
  307
  365
  430
  501
  577
  659
  747
  841
  933
  1,038
  1,147
  1,262
  1,383
  1,509
  1,639
  1,775
  1,916
  2,063
  2,216
  2,375
  2,540
  2,712
  2,890
  3,075
  3,268
  3,469
  3,679
  3,897
Operating income, $m
  86
  108
  133
  161
  192
  225
  262
  302
  344
  389
  443
  493
  546
  602
  659
  720
  783
  848
  916
  987
  1,061
  1,137
  1,216
  1,299
  1,385
  1,474
  1,567
  1,664
  1,765
  1,870
EBITDA, $m
  101
  126
  153
  183
  217
  254
  294
  338
  384
  433
  486
  541
  599
  659
  723
  789
  858
  929
  1,004
  1,081
  1,162
  1,246
  1,333
  1,423
  1,517
  1,615
  1,717
  1,823
  1,933
  2,048
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  105
  128
  154
  184
  216
  250
  288
  328
  370
  421
  469
  519
  571
  625
  682
  741
  803
  867
  934
  1,003
  1,075
  1,150
  1,228
  1,309
  1,393
  1,480
  1,572
  1,666
  1,765
Tax expense, $m
  23
  28
  35
  42
  50
  58
  68
  78
  88
  100
  114
  127
  140
  154
  169
  184
  200
  217
  234
  252
  271
  290
  310
  331
  353
  376
  400
  424
  450
  477
Net income, $m
  61
  76
  94
  113
  134
  157
  183
  210
  239
  270
  308
  342
  379
  417
  456
  498
  541
  586
  633
  682
  732
  785
  839
  896
  955
  1,017
  1,081
  1,147
  1,217
  1,289

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  253
  311
  377
  451
  532
  621
  718
  823
  934
  1,053
  1,179
  1,311
  1,450
  1,596
  1,749
  1,908
  2,073
  2,246
  2,425
  2,612
  2,806
  3,007
  3,216
  3,434
  3,660
  3,895
  4,140
  4,395
  4,660
  4,937
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  253
  311
  377
  451
  532
  621
  718
  823
  934
  1,053
  1,179
  1,311
  1,450
  1,596
  1,749
  1,908
  2,073
  2,246
  2,425
  2,612
  2,806
  3,007
  3,216
  3,434
  3,660
  3,895
  4,140
  4,395
  4,660
  4,937
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.169
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
Average production assets, $m
  91
  112
  136
  163
  192
  224
  259
  297
  337
  380
  425
  473
  523
  576
  631
  689
  748
  811
  875
  943
  1,013
  1,085
  1,161
  1,239
  1,321
  1,406
  1,494
  1,586
  1,682
  1,782
Working capital, $m
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
Total debt, $m
  64
  89
  117
  148
  182
  220
  261
  305
  353
  403
  456
  513
  572
  633
  698
  766
  836
  909
  985
  1,064
  1,146
  1,232
  1,320
  1,413
  1,509
  1,608
  1,712
  1,820
  1,933
  2,050
Total liabilities, $m
  107
  132
  160
  191
  226
  263
  305
  349
  396
  446
  500
  556
  615
  677
  741
  809
  879
  952
  1,028
  1,107
  1,190
  1,275
  1,364
  1,456
  1,552
  1,652
  1,755
  1,863
  1,976
  2,093
Total equity, $m
  146
  179
  217
  260
  307
  358
  414
  474
  538
  606
  679
  755
  835
  919
  1,007
  1,099
  1,194
  1,294
  1,397
  1,504
  1,616
  1,732
  1,853
  1,978
  2,108
  2,244
  2,385
  2,532
  2,684
  2,844
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  253
  311
  377
  451
  533
  621
  719
  823
  934
  1,052
  1,179
  1,311
  1,450
  1,596
  1,748
  1,908
  2,073
  2,246
  2,425
  2,611
  2,806
  3,007
  3,217
  3,434
  3,660
  3,896
  4,140
  4,395
  4,660
  4,937
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.440
  0.490
  0.540
  0.570
  0.590
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576
  0.576

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  76
  94
  113
  134
  157
  183
  210
  239
  270
  308
  342
  379
  417
  456
  498
  541
  586
  633
  682
  732
  785
  839
  896
  955
  1,017
  1,081
  1,147
  1,217
  1,289
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  43
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  149
  159
  168
  178
Funds from operations, $m
  77
  94
  113
  135
  160
  186
  215
  246
  279
  314
  350
  389
  431
  474
  520
  567
  616
  667
  721
  776
  834
  893
  956
  1,020
  1,087
  1,157
  1,230
  1,306
  1,385
  1,467
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  78
  96
  116
  138
  162
  189
  218
  249
  283
  318
  354
  394
  436
  479
  525
  572
  622
  673
  727
  782
  840
  900
  963
  1,028
  1,095
  1,165
  1,238
  1,314
  1,394
  1,476
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -141
  -149
  -159
  -168
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -70
  -77
  -83
  -91
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -120
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -255
  -268
Free cash flow, $m
  53
  66
  81
  98
  117
  138
  161
  186
  213
  242
  271
  304
  338
  374
  412
  452
  493
  536
  581
  627
  676
  726
  779
  833
  889
  948
  1,009
  1,073
  1,139
  1,208
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  21
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  21
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  74
  90
  109
  129
  151
  176
  202
  230
  260
  292
  324
  360
  397
  436
  477
  519
  563
  609
  657
  707
  758
  812
  867
  925
  985
  1,048
  1,113
  1,181
  1,252
  1,326
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  15
  19
  24
  29
  34
  40
  47
  55
  62
  71
  80
  89
  100
  110
  121
  133
  145
  157
  171
  184
  198
  213
  228
  244
  261
  278
  296
  314
  334
  354
Cash available for distribution, $m
  107
  57
  71
  86
  104
  124
  146
  170
  196
  224
  252
  283
  317
  352
  389
  427
  468
  510
  554
  599
  646
  696
  747
  800
  855
  913
  972
  1,034
  1,099
  1,166
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  102
  52
  62
  71
  81
  90
  99
  106
  113
  117
  120
  121
  120
  118
  114
  109
  102
  94
  85
  76
  67
  58
  49
  41
  33
  27
  21
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Eagle Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on developing and commercializing injectable products in the critical care and oncology areas. The Company's product portfolio includes products, including Argatroban; Ryanodex; docetaxel injection, non-alcohol formulation; and Bendeka. Its advanced candidates include EP-3101 (bendamustine Resistance Temperature Detectors (RTD)) (EP-3101), EP-4104 (dantrolene sodium for exertional heat stroke (EHS)) (EP-4104), EGL-4104-C-1702 (dantrolene sodium for drug induced hyperthermia), EP-5101 (pemetrexed) (EP-5101) and EGL-5385-C-1701 (fulvestrant). Its product portfolio focuses on oncology, critical care and orphan diseases. Bendamustine is an alkylating agent approved for use in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), and indolent B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), that has progressed during or within six months of treatment with rituximab or a rituximab-containing regimen.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Eagle Pharmaceuticals (EGRX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15
Price to Sales 6.4
Price to Book 8.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 186.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 700%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 47.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Total Capital 67.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Return On Equity 67.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.7%
EBITDA Margin 29.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.1%
Operating Margin 28%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23%
Pre-Tax Margin 28%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.5%
Net Profit Margin 42.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.8%
Effective Tax Rate -52.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

EGRX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGRX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $237 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Eagle Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Eagle Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGRX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EGRX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Eagle Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Eagle Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGRX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGRX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Eagle Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Eagle Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGRX stock is equal to 6.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGRX are equal to 30.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Eagle Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGRX is equal to -2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $179 million for Eagle Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15 million for Eagle Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Eagle Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Benzinga Pro's 5 Stocks To Watch Today   [Jun-11-18 09:32AM  Benzinga]
▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 07:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 2nd   [May-02-18 05:11AM  Zacks]
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▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals posts 4Q profit   [07:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals posts 3Q profit   [Nov-08-17 10:44AM  Associated Press]
▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals Announces New Patent for RYANODEX   [Oct-17-17 07:33AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Biotech Values in a Fully Valued Market   [Oct-15-17 12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Eagle Pharmaceuticals posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 10:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Stocks the Smartest Investors Are Buying Right Now   [Jul-20-17 01:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Key FDA Events to Watch Out for in Jul 2017   [Jul-03-17 08:13AM  Zacks]
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