Intrinsic value of Vaalco Energy - EGY

Previous Close

$1.88

  Intrinsic Value

$0.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$1.88

 
Intrinsic value

$0.04

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EGY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.60
  18.14
  16.83
  15.64
  14.58
  13.62
  12.76
  11.98
  11.28
  10.66
  10.09
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.01
  7.71
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
Revenue, $m
  92
  109
  127
  147
  168
  191
  216
  242
  269
  298
  328
  359
  392
  426
  461
  498
  537
  577
  618
  661
  706
  753
  801
  852
  904
  959
  1,016
  1,075
  1,137
  1,202
Variable operating expenses, $m
  99
  117
  137
  159
  182
  206
  233
  261
  290
  321
  353
  387
  422
  459
  497
  537
  579
  622
  666
  713
  761
  811
  864
  918
  975
  1,034
  1,095
  1,159
  1,226
  1,296
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  99
  117
  137
  159
  182
  206
  233
  261
  290
  321
  353
  387
  422
  459
  497
  537
  579
  622
  666
  713
  761
  811
  864
  918
  975
  1,034
  1,095
  1,159
  1,226
  1,296
Operating income, $m
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -199
  -210
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -199
  -210

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  95
  113
  131
  152
  174
  198
  223
  250
  278
  308
  339
  371
  405
  441
  477
  515
  555
  596
  639
  684
  730
  778
  829
  881
  935
  992
  1,050
  1,112
  1,176
  1,243
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  95
  113
  131
  152
  174
  198
  223
  250
  278
  308
  339
  371
  405
  441
  477
  515
  555
  596
  639
  684
  730
  778
  829
  881
  935
  992
  1,050
  1,112
  1,176
  1,243
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.968
  0.965
  0.969
  0.967
  0.966
  0.965
  0.969
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.966
  0.966
  0.967
  0.968
  0.968
  0.967
  0.966
  0.967
  0.968
  0.966
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.968
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
Average production assets, $m
  31
  36
  42
  49
  56
  64
  72
  80
  90
  99
  109
  120
  130
  142
  154
  166
  179
  192
  206
  220
  235
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  338
  358
  379
  400
Working capital, $m
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -48
  -55
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -87
  -96
  -106
  -116
  -127
  -138
  -150
  -161
  -174
  -187
  -200
  -214
  -229
  -244
  -260
  -276
  -293
  -311
  -329
  -348
  -368
  -389
Total debt, $m
  23
  38
  54
  72
  91
  112
  134
  157
  182
  208
  235
  263
  293
  323
  355
  389
  423
  459
  496
  535
  576
  618
  661
  707
  754
  803
  855
  908
  964
  1,022
Total liabilities, $m
  83
  98
  115
  132
  152
  172
  194
  218
  242
  268
  295
  323
  353
  384
  416
  449
  484
  520
  557
  596
  636
  678
  722
  767
  814
  864
  915
  968
  1,024
  1,083
Total equity, $m
  12
  15
  17
  20
  22
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  62
  66
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  143
  152
  160
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  95
  113
  132
  152
  174
  198
  223
  250
  278
  308
  339
  371
  405
  441
  478
  515
  556
  597
  639
  684
  730
  778
  829
  881
  935
  992
  1,051
  1,111
  1,176
  1,243
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.840
  2.590
  3.190
  3.670
  4.070
  4.390
  4.660
  4.880
  5.070
  5.230
  5.370
  5.490
  5.600
  5.690
  5.770
  5.840
  5.910
  5.970
  6.020
  6.070
  6.110
  6.150
  6.190
  6.220
  6.250
  6.280
  6.310
  6.330
  6.350
  6.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129
  0.129

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -199
  -210
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
Funds from operations, $m
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  1
  0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -103
  -109
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -38
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -134
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -207
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  13
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  28
  33
  39
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  97
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
  277
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -219
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  6
  5
  3
  1
  -1
  -4
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -148
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  6
  4
  3
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.9
  82.0
  73.4
  65.4
  58.1
  51.5
  45.5
  40.1
  35.3
  31.1
  27.3
  24.0
  21.0
  18.5
  16.2
  14.2
  12.4
  10.9
  9.5
  8.3
  7.3
  6.4
  5.6
  4.9
  4.3
  3.7
  3.3
  2.9
  2.5
  2.2

VAALCO Energy, Inc. is an independent energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. Its segments include Gabon, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, the United States, and Corporate and other, which includes corporate and operations support. It owns producing properties and conducts exploration activities as an operator in Gabon, West Africa; conducts exploration activities as an operator in Angola, West Africa, and participates in exploration and development activities as a non-operator in Equatorial Guinea, West Africa. In the United States, it operates unconventional resource properties in North Texas and hold undeveloped leasehold acreage in Montana. It also owns minor interests in conventional production activities as a non-operator in the United States. Its Etame Marin block is located offshore the Republic of Gabon. It owns over 640-acre lease in the Hefley field (Granite Wash formation) in North Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Vaalco Energy (EGY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.1
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -36.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -25%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -86.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -33.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -24.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.7%
Return On Total Capital -98.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -89.3%
Return On Equity -207.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -132.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.9%
EBITDA Margin -1.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.6%
Operating Margin -6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -15%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -62.4%
Net Profit Margin -45%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -101.6%
Effective Tax Rate -100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EGY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EGY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $77.025 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Vaalco Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Vaalco Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EGY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EGY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Vaalco Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Vaalco Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EGY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 107.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EGY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.1% for Vaalco Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Vaalco Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EGY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EGY are equal to 33.3%.

Life of production assets of 3.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Vaalco Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EGY is equal to -32.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10.289 million for Vaalco Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.446 million for Vaalco Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Vaalco Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Vaalco Energy: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-08-18 05:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ Vaalco Energy, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2018 Results   [Nov-07-18 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ VAALCO Energy, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-07-18 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Vaalco Energy: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-06-18 06:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 of the Best Penny Stocks To Buy Right Now   [May-16-18 10:09AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Vaalco Energy: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 06:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ VAALCO Energy to Present at IPAA OGIS New York   [Apr-06-18 06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ VAALCO Energy, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-08-18 08:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Vaalco Energy posts 4Q profit   [Mar-07-18 07:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ VAALCO Energy Provides Operational Update   [Dec-28-17 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ VAALCO Energy Provides Operational Update   [Nov-28-17 04:50PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Vaalco Energy reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 04:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vaalco Energy posts 2Q profit   [Aug-10-17 01:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ VAALCO Energy, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-08-17 09:55PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ VAALCO Provides Operational Update   [Jul-20-17 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to VAALCO Energy, Inc. : May 29, 2017   [May-29-17 12:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to VAALCO Energy, Inc. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Vaalco Energy posts 1Q profit   [May-08-17 06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Houston energy company names new CFO   [Apr-18-17 03:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Houston energy company receives another delisting warning from NYSE   [Apr-10-17 06:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Webcast-OGIS New York for VAALCO Energy, Inc.   [Mar-08-17 05:56PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ VAALCO Energy Announces Year-End 2016 Reserves   [Feb-21-17 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]

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