Intrinsic value of eHi Car Services Limited - EHIC

Previous Close

$11.81

  Intrinsic Value

$2.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

Previous close

$11.81

 
Intrinsic value

$2.24

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EHIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.40
  33.26
  30.43
  27.89
  25.60
  23.54
  21.69
  20.02
  18.52
  17.17
  15.95
  14.85
  13.87
  12.98
  12.18
  11.46
  10.82
  10.24
  9.71
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
Revenue, $m
  565
  753
  982
  1,255
  1,577
  1,948
  2,370
  2,845
  3,372
  3,950
  4,580
  5,261
  5,990
  6,768
  7,592
  8,463
  9,378
  10,338
  11,342
  12,391
  13,483
  14,621
  15,804
  17,034
  18,312
  19,640
  21,021
  22,456
  23,948
  25,499
Variable operating expenses, $m
  402
  536
  698
  893
  1,121
  1,385
  1,685
  2,022
  2,397
  2,808
  3,255
  3,738
  4,256
  4,809
  5,395
  6,013
  6,664
  7,346
  8,060
  8,805
  9,581
  10,389
  11,230
  12,104
  13,012
  13,956
  14,937
  15,957
  17,017
  18,119
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
Total operating expenses, $m
  455
  590
  754
  950
  1,179
  1,444
  1,746
  2,084
  2,460
  2,873
  3,321
  3,806
  4,325
  4,880
  5,467
  6,087
  6,739
  7,423
  8,139
  8,885
  9,663
  10,473
  11,316
  12,192
  13,102
  14,048
  15,031
  16,053
  17,115
  18,219
Operating income, $m
  109
  162
  228
  306
  397
  503
  624
  760
  912
  1,078
  1,260
  1,455
  1,665
  1,888
  2,125
  2,376
  2,639
  2,915
  3,204
  3,506
  3,820
  4,147
  4,488
  4,842
  5,210
  5,593
  5,990
  6,403
  6,833
  7,280
EBITDA, $m
  266
  371
  499
  652
  832
  1,041
  1,278
  1,545
  1,841
  2,166
  2,521
  2,903
  3,314
  3,752
  4,216
  4,706
  5,221
  5,762
  6,327
  6,917
  7,532
  8,173
  8,839
  9,532
  10,252
  11,000
  11,778
  12,586
  13,427
  14,301
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  52
  73
  100
  133
  173
  219
  272
  333
  401
  477
  560
  651
  749
  854
  966
  1,084
  1,209
  1,341
  1,479
  1,624
  1,774
  1,932
  2,095
  2,265
  2,442
  2,626
  2,817
  3,016
  3,222
  3,437
Earnings before tax, $m
  58
  89
  127
  172
  225
  284
  352
  427
  510
  600
  699
  804
  916
  1,034
  1,160
  1,291
  1,429
  1,574
  1,725
  1,882
  2,046
  2,216
  2,393
  2,577
  2,768
  2,967
  3,173
  3,388
  3,611
  3,843
Tax expense, $m
  16
  24
  34
  46
  61
  77
  95
  115
  138
  162
  189
  217
  247
  279
  313
  349
  386
  425
  466
  508
  552
  598
  646
  696
  747
  801
  857
  915
  975
  1,038
Net income, $m
  42
  65
  93
  126
  164
  208
  257
  312
  372
  438
  510
  587
  668
  755
  846
  943
  1,044
  1,149
  1,259
  1,374
  1,493
  1,618
  1,747
  1,881
  2,021
  2,166
  2,316
  2,473
  2,636
  2,806

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,197
  2,928
  3,819
  4,884
  6,135
  7,579
  9,223
  11,069
  13,119
  15,371
  17,822
  20,469
  23,308
  26,334
  29,542
  32,929
  36,491
  40,227
  44,134
  48,213
  52,464
  56,889
  61,493
  66,279
  71,253
  76,422
  81,793
  87,376
  93,181
  99,218
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,197
  2,928
  3,819
  4,884
  6,135
  7,579
  9,223
  11,069
  13,119
  15,371
  17,822
  20,469
  23,308
  26,334
  29,542
  32,929
  36,491
  40,227
  44,134
  48,213
  52,464
  56,889
  61,493
  66,279
  71,253
  76,422
  81,793
  87,376
  93,181
  99,218
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
Average production assets, $m
  1,399
  1,865
  2,432
  3,111
  3,907
  4,827
  5,874
  7,049
  8,355
  9,789
  11,350
  13,036
  14,843
  16,770
  18,814
  20,971
  23,239
  25,618
  28,106
  30,704
  33,411
  36,230
  39,162
  42,209
  45,377
  48,669
  52,090
  55,645
  59,342
  63,187
Working capital, $m
  198
  264
  345
  441
  553
  684
  832
  999
  1,183
  1,387
  1,608
  1,846
  2,103
  2,375
  2,665
  2,970
  3,292
  3,629
  3,981
  4,349
  4,733
  5,132
  5,547
  5,979
  6,428
  6,894
  7,378
  7,882
  8,406
  8,950
Total debt, $m
  1,204
  1,647
  2,187
  2,832
  3,590
  4,465
  5,461
  6,580
  7,822
  9,187
  10,672
  12,277
  13,997
  15,831
  17,775
  19,827
  21,986
  24,250
  26,618
  29,089
  31,665
  34,347
  37,137
  40,037
  43,052
  46,184
  49,439
  52,823
  56,340
  59,999
Total liabilities, $m
  1,332
  1,774
  2,314
  2,960
  3,718
  4,593
  5,589
  6,708
  7,950
  9,315
  10,800
  12,404
  14,125
  15,958
  17,902
  19,955
  22,114
  24,377
  26,745
  29,217
  31,793
  34,475
  37,265
  40,165
  43,179
  46,312
  49,567
  52,950
  56,468
  60,126
Total equity, $m
  866
  1,154
  1,505
  1,924
  2,417
  2,986
  3,634
  4,361
  5,169
  6,056
  7,022
  8,065
  9,183
  10,375
  11,639
  12,974
  14,378
  15,849
  17,389
  18,996
  20,671
  22,414
  24,228
  26,114
  28,074
  30,110
  32,227
  34,426
  36,713
  39,092
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,198
  2,928
  3,819
  4,884
  6,135
  7,579
  9,223
  11,069
  13,119
  15,371
  17,822
  20,469
  23,308
  26,333
  29,541
  32,929
  36,492
  40,226
  44,134
  48,213
  52,464
  56,889
  61,493
  66,279
  71,253
  76,422
  81,794
  87,376
  93,181
  99,218
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.390
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  42
  65
  93
  126
  164
  208
  257
  312
  372
  438
  510
  587
  668
  755
  846
  943
  1,044
  1,149
  1,259
  1,374
  1,493
  1,618
  1,747
  1,881
  2,021
  2,166
  2,316
  2,473
  2,636
  2,806
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  156
  208
  271
  347
  435
  537
  654
  784
  929
  1,089
  1,261
  1,448
  1,649
  1,863
  2,090
  2,330
  2,582
  2,846
  3,123
  3,412
  3,712
  4,026
  4,351
  4,690
  5,042
  5,408
  5,788
  6,183
  6,594
  7,021
Funds from operations, $m
  198
  273
  364
  472
  599
  745
  911
  1,096
  1,302
  1,527
  1,771
  2,035
  2,318
  2,618
  2,937
  3,273
  3,626
  3,995
  4,382
  4,785
  5,206
  5,643
  6,098
  6,571
  7,062
  7,573
  8,104
  8,656
  9,230
  9,826
Change in working capital, $m
  53
  66
  80
  96
  113
  130
  148
  167
  185
  203
  221
  239
  256
  273
  289
  306
  321
  337
  352
  368
  383
  399
  415
  432
  449
  466
  485
  504
  524
  545
Cash from operations, $m
  146
  207
  284
  376
  486
  615
  762
  930
  1,117
  1,324
  1,550
  1,796
  2,062
  2,346
  2,647
  2,967
  3,304
  3,658
  4,030
  4,417
  4,822
  5,244
  5,683
  6,139
  6,614
  7,107
  7,619
  8,152
  8,706
  9,282
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -114
  -155
  -207
  -270
  -346
  -434
  -536
  -653
  -783
  -928
  -1,088
  -1,261
  -1,448
  -1,649
  -1,863
  -2,090
  -2,330
  -2,582
  -2,846
  -3,123
  -3,412
  -3,712
  -4,026
  -4,351
  -4,690
  -5,042
  -5,408
  -5,788
  -6,183
  -6,594
New CAPEX, $m
  -373
  -465
  -568
  -678
  -796
  -920
  -1,047
  -1,176
  -1,305
  -1,434
  -1,561
  -1,686
  -1,808
  -1,927
  -2,043
  -2,157
  -2,269
  -2,379
  -2,488
  -2,598
  -2,707
  -2,818
  -2,932
  -3,048
  -3,168
  -3,292
  -3,421
  -3,556
  -3,697
  -3,845
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -487
  -620
  -775
  -948
  -1,142
  -1,354
  -1,583
  -1,829
  -2,088
  -2,362
  -2,649
  -2,947
  -3,256
  -3,576
  -3,906
  -4,247
  -4,599
  -4,961
  -5,334
  -5,721
  -6,119
  -6,530
  -6,958
  -7,399
  -7,858
  -8,334
  -8,829
  -9,344
  -9,880
  -10,439
Free cash flow, $m
  -342
  -414
  -491
  -572
  -656
  -739
  -821
  -899
  -972
  -1,039
  -1,098
  -1,150
  -1,195
  -1,231
  -1,259
  -1,280
  -1,294
  -1,303
  -1,305
  -1,303
  -1,297
  -1,287
  -1,275
  -1,260
  -1,244
  -1,227
  -1,209
  -1,191
  -1,174
  -1,157
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  355
  443
  540
  646
  758
  875
  996
  1,119
  1,242
  1,365
  1,486
  1,604
  1,720
  1,834
  1,944
  2,052
  2,159
  2,264
  2,368
  2,472
  2,576
  2,682
  2,790
  2,900
  3,014
  3,132
  3,255
  3,383
  3,518
  3,659
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  188
  223
  258
  294
  329
  361
  391
  416
  435
  449
  455
  456
  450
  437
  418
  392
  360
  323
  280
  233
  182
  126
  67
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  543
  666
  798
  940
  1,087
  1,236
  1,387
  1,535
  1,677
  1,814
  1,941
  2,060
  2,170
  2,271
  2,362
  2,444
  2,519
  2,587
  2,648
  2,705
  2,758
  2,808
  2,857
  2,905
  3,014
  3,132
  3,255
  3,383
  3,518
  3,659
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  201
  252
  307
  367
  431
  497
  566
  636
  705
  775
  843
  910
  976
  1,040
  1,103
  1,164
  1,224
  1,284
  1,343
  1,402
  1,461
  1,521
  1,582
  1,645
  1,770
  1,906
  2,046
  2,192
  2,344
  2,502
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -230
  -288
  -351
  -420
  -493
  -569
  -648
  -727
  -808
  -887
  -966
  -1,043
  -1,118
  -1,192
  -1,264
  -1,334
  -1,404
  -1,472
  -1,539
  -1,607
  -1,675
  -1,744
  -1,814
  -1,886
  -1,960
  -2,037
  -2,116
  -2,200
  -2,287
  -2,379
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -29
  -36
  -44
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -82
  -92
  -102
  -112
  -123
  -133
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -189
  -131
  -70
  -8
  57
  123
Discount rate, %
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -40
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -21
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  81.5
  68.0
  58.0
  50.4
  44.6
  40.0
  36.3
  33.4
  31.0
  29.1
  27.5
  26.2
  25.1
  24.2
  23.5
  22.9
  22.4
  22.0
  21.7
  21.5
  21.3
  21.2
  21.2
  21.2
  21.2
  21.2
  21.2
  21.2
  21.2
  21.2

eHi Car Services Limited, formerly Prudent Choice International Limited, is a holding company. The Company is engaged in car rentals and car services. The Company provides self-drive car rental services to both individual customers, as well as corporate and institutional clients to meet travel, leisure, business and ground transportation needs. The Company operates its car rentals business primarily through its subsidiaries, including Shanghai eHi Car Rental Co., Ltd. (eHi Rental), eHi Auto Services (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. (eHi Jiangsu), and their subsidiaries and branches. For its car services business, the Company provides vehicles and chauffeur services through different subsidiaries. The Company provides chauffeur services through its subsidiary, Shanghai Smart Brand Auto Driving Services Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Smart Brand), and its subsidiaries and branches. The Company has a limited operating history.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  eHi Car Services Limited (EHIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 328
Price to Sales 5.4
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 45.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 43.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 69.3%
Total Debt to Equity 92.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Equity 0.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
EBITDA Margin 43.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Pre-Tax Margin 2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EHIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EHIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $414 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by eHi Car Services Limited. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of eHi Car Services Limited. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EHIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 36.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for EHIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of eHi Car Services Limited, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of eHi Car Services Limited.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EHIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $52 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EHIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.1% for eHi Car Services Limited.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for eHi Car Services Limited. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EHIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EHIC are equal to 247.8%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in eHi Car Services Limited operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EHIC is equal to 35.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $635.814203295 million for eHi Car Services Limited - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 69.959 million for eHi Car Services Limited is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of eHi Car Services Limited at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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