Intrinsic value of Endurance International Group Holdings - EIGI

Previous Close

$8.20

  Intrinsic Value

$4.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-43%

Previous close

$8.20

 
Intrinsic value

$4.71

 
Up/down potential

-43%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EIGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  49.93
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,111
  1,133
  1,159
  1,189
  1,223
  1,260
  1,300
  1,345
  1,392
  1,444
  1,500
  1,559
  1,622
  1,689
  1,761
  1,837
  1,918
  2,003
  2,093
  2,188
  2,289
  2,395
  2,507
  2,624
  2,749
  2,880
  3,017
  3,162
  3,315
  3,476
  3,644
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,049
  1,069
  1,092
  1,117
  1,145
  1,176
  1,210
  1,246
  1,286
  1,328
  1,187
  1,235
  1,287
  1,341
  1,399
  1,460
  1,525
  1,594
  1,666
  1,743
  1,824
  1,909
  1,999
  2,093
  2,193
  2,298
  2,408
  2,525
  2,647
  2,776
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,150
  1,049
  1,069
  1,092
  1,117
  1,145
  1,176
  1,210
  1,246
  1,286
  1,328
  1,187
  1,235
  1,287
  1,341
  1,399
  1,460
  1,525
  1,594
  1,666
  1,743
  1,824
  1,909
  1,999
  2,093
  2,193
  2,298
  2,408
  2,525
  2,647
  2,776
Operating income, $m
  -39
  84
  90
  97
  105
  114
  124
  135
  146
  158
  172
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  499
  522
  546
  571
  598
  626
  655
  687
  719
  754
  790
  829
  869
EBITDA, $m
  165
  327
  334
  343
  352
  363
  375
  388
  401
  416
  432
  449
  468
  487
  508
  530
  553
  577
  603
  631
  660
  690
  723
  757
  793
  830
  870
  912
  956
  1,002
  1,051
Interest expense (income), $m
  119
  150
  142
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  204
  214
  224
  236
  248
  261
  274
  289
  304
  320
  337
  355
  374
  393
  414
  436
  460
  484
  510
  537
Earnings before tax, $m
  -190
  -66
  -52
  -49
  -46
  -43
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -27
  -23
  168
  173
  178
  184
  190
  197
  203
  210
  218
  226
  234
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  319
  332
Tax expense, $m
  -110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
Net income, $m
  -73
  -66
  -52
  -49
  -46
  -43
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -27
  -23
  123
  126
  130
  134
  139
  143
  148
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  54
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,756
  2,757
  2,821
  2,893
  2,975
  3,065
  3,164
  3,271
  3,388
  3,514
  3,649
  3,793
  3,947
  4,111
  4,285
  4,470
  4,665
  4,873
  5,092
  5,324
  5,568
  5,826
  6,099
  6,386
  6,688
  7,006
  7,342
  7,694
  8,066
  8,456
  8,867
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,702
  2,757
  2,821
  2,893
  2,975
  3,065
  3,164
  3,271
  3,388
  3,514
  3,649
  3,793
  3,947
  4,111
  4,285
  4,470
  4,665
  4,873
  5,092
  5,324
  5,568
  5,826
  6,099
  6,386
  6,688
  7,006
  7,342
  7,694
  8,066
  8,456
  8,867
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
Average production assets, $m
  572
  582
  596
  611
  628
  647
  668
  691
  716
  742
  771
  801
  834
  868
  905
  944
  986
  1,029
  1,076
  1,125
  1,176
  1,231
  1,288
  1,349
  1,413
  1,480
  1,551
  1,625
  1,704
  1,786
  1,873
Working capital, $m
  -363
  -383
  -392
  -402
  -413
  -426
  -439
  -454
  -471
  -488
  -507
  -527
  -548
  -571
  -595
  -621
  -648
  -677
  -707
  -740
  -774
  -809
  -847
  -887
  -929
  -973
  -1,020
  -1,069
  -1,120
  -1,175
  -1,232
Total debt, $m
  1,994
  1,844
  1,901
  1,966
  2,039
  2,120
  2,209
  2,306
  2,411
  2,524
  2,646
  2,775
  2,914
  3,062
  3,218
  3,385
  3,561
  3,748
  3,945
  4,153
  4,374
  4,606
  4,851
  5,109
  5,381
  5,668
  5,969
  6,287
  6,621
  6,973
  7,342
Total liabilities, $m
  2,632
  2,482
  2,539
  2,604
  2,677
  2,758
  2,847
  2,944
  3,049
  3,162
  3,284
  3,413
  3,552
  3,700
  3,856
  4,023
  4,199
  4,386
  4,583
  4,791
  5,012
  5,244
  5,489
  5,747
  6,019
  6,306
  6,607
  6,925
  7,259
  7,611
  7,980
Total equity, $m
  124
  276
  282
  289
  297
  306
  316
  327
  339
  351
  365
  379
  395
  411
  428
  447
  467
  487
  509
  532
  557
  583
  610
  639
  669
  701
  734
  769
  807
  846
  887
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,756
  2,758
  2,821
  2,893
  2,974
  3,064
  3,163
  3,271
  3,388
  3,513
  3,649
  3,792
  3,947
  4,111
  4,284
  4,470
  4,666
  4,873
  5,092
  5,323
  5,569
  5,827
  6,099
  6,386
  6,688
  7,007
  7,341
  7,694
  8,066
  8,457
  8,867
Debt-to-equity ratio
  16.081
  6.690
  6.740
  6.790
  6.860
  6.920
  6.980
  7.050
  7.120
  7.180
  7.250
  7.320
  7.380
  7.450
  7.510
  7.570
  7.630
  7.690
  7.750
  7.800
  7.850
  7.900
  7.950
  8.000
  8.050
  8.090
  8.130
  8.170
  8.210
  8.250
  8.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.026
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -73
  -66
  -52
  -49
  -46
  -43
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -27
  -23
  123
  126
  130
  134
  139
  143
  148
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  204
  243
  244
  245
  247
  249
  251
  253
  255
  258
  261
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
Funds from operations, $m
  222
  176
  192
  196
  201
  206
  212
  218
  224
  231
  238
  200
  207
  215
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  328
  342
  357
  373
  389
  406
  424
Change in working capital, $m
  67
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
Cash from operations, $m
  155
  184
  201
  207
  212
  219
  225
  233
  240
  248
  257
  220
  229
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  300
  313
  326
  340
  355
  370
  387
  404
  422
  441
  460
  481
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -87
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -932
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -236
  -248
  -260
Free cash flow, $m
  -777
  117
  131
  133
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
  156
  115
  118
  122
  125
  129
  133
  138
  142
  147
  152
  158
  163
  169
  176
  182
  189
  197
  204
  212
  221
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  928
  -108
  57
  65
  73
  81
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  187
  197
  209
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  334
  352
  370
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  230
  58
  56
  54
  52
  49
  46
  43
  40
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  796
  122
  115
  121
  127
  133
  138
  143
  148
  153
  157
  130
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  187
  197
  209
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  334
  352
  370
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  239
  246
  255
  263
  272
  280
  288
  297
  305
  314
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  324
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  427
  448
  469
  491
  514
  538
  564
  591
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  56
  -230
  -58
  -56
  -54
  -52
  -49
  -46
  -43
  -40
  -36
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  21
  188
  199
  209
  220
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  231
  241
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  332
  348
  364
  381
  399
  417
  437
  457
  479
  501
  525
  550
Discount rate, %
 
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  18
  143
  128
  114
  99
  85
  71
  59
  48
  38
  23
  18
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  82.1
  80.3
  78.7
  77.2
  75.8
  74.5
  73.4
  72.3
  71.5
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7
  70.7

Endurance International Group Holdings, Inc. (Endurance) is a provider of cloud-based platform solutions designed to help small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) succeed online. The Company operates through two segments: Web Presence and Email Marketing. The Company's Web presence segment consists of Web hosting, domains and the related products and services. Its e-mail marketing segment consists of the products and services offered by Constant Contact, principally e-mail marketing, including event marketing, survey tools and SinglePlatform. The Company's products focuses on Web hosting and other Web presence solutions, such as domains, and it also offers security, site backup, domains, search engine optimization (SEO) and search engine marketing (SEM), Google Adwords, mobile solutions, social media enablement, Website analytics, e-mail marketing and productivity and e-commerce tools, among others. It conducts operations in the United States, Brazil, India, and the Netherlands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Endurance International Group Holdings (EIGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -15.1
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 8.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 49.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1574.2%
Total Debt to Equity 1608.1%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital -4.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.3%
Return On Equity -48%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.6%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.5%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Operating Margin -3.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -17.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.1%
Net Profit Margin -6.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.6%
Effective Tax Rate 57.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

EIGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EIGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1111 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Endurance International Group Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Endurance International Group Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EIGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for EIGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Endurance International Group Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Endurance International Group Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EIGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EIGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.7% for Endurance International Group Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Endurance International Group Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EIGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EIGI are equal to 51.4%.

Life of production assets of 10.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Endurance International Group Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EIGI is equal to -33.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $124 million for Endurance International Group Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 142.683 million for Endurance International Group Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Endurance International Group Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Endurance International Group names new CEO   [Aug-14-17 05:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Endurance International posts 2Q loss   [Aug-01-17 10:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ HostGator Launches Upgraded Dedicated Server Platform   [Jul-24-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Endurance International posts 1Q loss   [May-02-17 07:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Constant Contact Announces New General Manager   [Apr-24-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Endurance Announces CEO Transition Plan   [Apr-17-17 04:35PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Endurance Implements Rebootless Updates with KernelCare   [Mar-29-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Constant Contact Expands to India   [Mar-09-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Endurance International posts 4Q loss   [07:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ Massachusetts tech firm expanding Tempe office, adding 600 workers   [Jan-31-17 07:06PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Are Hedge Funds On To Something With Buckle Inc (BKE)?   [Dec-03-16 05:45PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Acceleron Pharma Inc (XLRN)   [Nov-30-16 05:14AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of EIGI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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