Intrinsic value of Ekso Bionics Holdings - EKSO

Previous Close

$2.09

  Intrinsic Value

$0.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$2.09

 
Intrinsic value

$0.29

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EKSO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  58.90
  53.51
  48.66
  44.29
  40.36
  36.83
  33.64
  30.78
  28.20
  25.88
  23.79
  21.91
  20.22
  18.70
  17.33
  16.10
  14.99
  13.99
  13.09
  12.28
  11.55
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
Revenue, $m
  12
  18
  27
  38
  54
  74
  99
  129
  166
  208
  258
  315
  378
  449
  527
  611
  703
  801
  906
  1,018
  1,135
  1,259
  1,389
  1,525
  1,666
  1,814
  1,968
  2,128
  2,295
  2,467
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7
  10
  15
  22
  30
  42
  56
  73
  93
  117
  145
  177
  212
  252
  296
  343
  395
  450
  509
  572
  638
  707
  780
  856
  936
  1,019
  1,106
  1,195
  1,289
  1,386
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  64
  66
  67
Total operating expenses, $m
  43
  47
  52
  60
  69
  82
  97
  115
  136
  161
  189
  222
  258
  299
  345
  393
  446
  502
  562
  626
  693
  763
  838
  915
  996
  1,081
  1,169
  1,259
  1,355
  1,453
Operating income, $m
  -31
  -29
  -26
  -21
  -15
  -8
  2
  15
  30
  48
  69
  92
  119
  149
  182
  218
  257
  299
  344
  392
  442
  495
  551
  609
  670
  733
  799
  868
  940
  1,014
EBITDA, $m
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -18
  -11
  -2
  10
  25
  43
  65
  89
  118
  150
  185
  225
  268
  314
  364
  417
  474
  534
  596
  663
  732
  804
  879
  958
  1,039
  1,124
  1,213
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  7
  10
  14
  18
  24
  31
  40
  49
  60
  73
  86
  102
  118
  136
  155
  175
  197
  220
  244
  269
  295
  323
  352
  382
  413
  445
Earnings before tax, $m
  -31
  -30
  -29
  -26
  -22
  -17
  -11
  -4
  6
  16
  29
  43
  59
  77
  96
  117
  139
  164
  189
  217
  245
  275
  307
  340
  375
  410
  448
  487
  527
  569
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  4
  8
  12
  16
  21
  26
  32
  38
  44
  51
  58
  66
  74
  83
  92
  101
  111
  121
  131
  142
  154
Net income, $m
  -31
  -30
  -29
  -26
  -22
  -17
  -11
  -4
  4
  12
  21
  31
  43
  56
  70
  85
  102
  119
  138
  158
  179
  201
  224
  248
  273
  300
  327
  355
  385
  415

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  29
  44
  66
  95
  133
  182
  243
  317
  407
  512
  634
  773
  929
  1,103
  1,294
  1,502
  1,728
  1,969
  2,227
  2,500
  2,789
  3,093
  3,412
  3,746
  4,094
  4,457
  4,835
  5,229
  5,638
  6,063
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  29
  44
  66
  95
  133
  182
  243
  317
  407
  512
  634
  773
  929
  1,103
  1,294
  1,502
  1,728
  1,969
  2,227
  2,500
  2,789
  3,093
  3,412
  3,746
  4,094
  4,457
  4,835
  5,229
  5,638
  6,063
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.414
  0.409
  0.409
  0.400
  0.406
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.408
  0.406
  0.407
  0.408
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
Average production assets, $m
  5
  7
  11
  15
  22
  30
  40
  52
  67
  84
  104
  126
  152
  180
  212
  246
  283
  322
  364
  409
  456
  506
  558
  613
  670
  729
  791
  855
  922
  992
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
Total debt, $m
  17
  30
  48
  72
  104
  145
  197
  259
  335
  423
  526
  642
  774
  920
  1,081
  1,256
  1,445
  1,649
  1,865
  2,095
  2,338
  2,594
  2,862
  3,143
  3,436
  3,741
  4,059
  4,390
  4,734
  5,091
Total liabilities, $m
  24
  37
  55
  79
  112
  153
  204
  267
  342
  431
  533
  650
  781
  928
  1,088
  1,263
  1,453
  1,656
  1,873
  2,103
  2,346
  2,601
  2,870
  3,150
  3,443
  3,749
  4,067
  4,397
  4,741
  5,099
Total equity, $m
  5
  7
  10
  15
  21
  29
  39
  50
  65
  81
  101
  123
  148
  175
  206
  239
  275
  313
  354
  398
  444
  492
  543
  596
  651
  709
  769
  831
  896
  964
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  29
  44
  65
  94
  133
  182
  243
  317
  407
  512
  634
  773
  929
  1,103
  1,294
  1,502
  1,728
  1,969
  2,227
  2,501
  2,790
  3,093
  3,413
  3,746
  4,094
  4,458
  4,836
  5,228
  5,637
  6,063
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.650
  4.220
  4.570
  4.790
  4.930
  5.030
  5.100
  5.140
  5.170
  5.200
  5.220
  5.230
  5.240
  5.250
  5.250
  5.260
  5.260
  5.270
  5.270
  5.270
  5.270
  5.270
  5.280
  5.280
  5.280
  5.280
  5.280
  5.280
  5.280
  5.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -31
  -30
  -29
  -26
  -22
  -17
  -11
  -4
  4
  12
  21
  31
  43
  56
  70
  85
  102
  119
  138
  158
  179
  201
  224
  248
  273
  300
  327
  355
  385
  415
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  17
  21
  25
  30
  36
  42
  49
  57
  64
  73
  82
  91
  101
  112
  123
  134
  146
  158
  171
  184
  198
Funds from operations, $m
  -30
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -18
  -11
  -3
  7
  17
  29
  42
  57
  73
  92
  112
  134
  158
  184
  211
  240
  270
  302
  336
  371
  407
  445
  485
  526
  569
  614
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  -30
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -18
  -12
  -4
  6
  17
  28
  41
  56
  73
  91
  111
  133
  157
  182
  210
  238
  269
  301
  334
  369
  405
  443
  483
  524
  567
  611
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -57
  -64
  -73
  -82
  -91
  -101
  -112
  -123
  -134
  -146
  -158
  -171
  -184
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -37
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -67
  -76
  -86
  -97
  -106
  -118
  -129
  -141
  -153
  -167
  -180
  -193
  -208
  -222
  -238
  -254
Free cash flow, $m
  -33
  -32
  -31
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -19
  -14
  -8
  -2
  4
  12
  22
  32
  44
  57
  71
  86
  103
  121
  140
  160
  181
  203
  226
  250
  275
  302
  329
  357
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  13
  18
  24
  32
  41
  51
  63
  75
  89
  102
  117
  131
  146
  161
  175
  189
  203
  217
  230
  243
  256
  268
  281
  293
  305
  318
  331
  344
  357
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  33
  33
  32
  30
  28
  25
  21
  15
  10
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  43
  46
  50
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  94
  102
  117
  131
  146
  161
  175
  189
  203
  217
  230
  243
  256
  268
  281
  293
  305
  318
  331
  344
  357
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  13
  19
  25
  33
  42
  53
  65
  77
  91
  107
  129
  153
  178
  205
  232
  260
  290
  320
  351
  383
  415
  449
  483
  519
  555
  593
  632
  673
  715
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -33
  -33
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -15
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -5
  -19
  -13
  -5
  5
  17
  32
  49
  63
  74
  88
  107
  128
  151
  174
  199
  225
  251
  279
  307
  337
  367
  398
  430
  463
  498
  533
  570
  608
  647
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -4
  -18
  -12
  -4
  4
  12
  22
  31
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  51
  51
  51
  49
  46
  43
  39
  35
  30
  26
  22
  18
  15
  11
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  32.9
  14.9
  8.4
  5.7
  4.3
  3.6
  3.2
  3.0
  2.9
  2.9
  2.9
  2.9
  2.9
  2.9
  2.9
  2.9
  2.9
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  2.9

Ekso Bionics Holdings, Inc. designs, develops, and sells exoskeletons for use in the healthcare, industrial, military, and consumer markets in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. The company operates through Engineering Services and Medical segments. It primarily offers Ekso GT, a bionic suit that provides the ability to stand and walk over ground with a reciprocal gait using a cane, crutches, or a walker to individuals with spinal cord injuries, stroke, and other lower limb paralysis or weakness. The company’s Ekso device is primarily used in a clinic or rehabilitation setting. It also performs research and development work on human exoskeletons and related technologies. The company has a collaborative partnership with Lockheed Martin Corporation to develop products for military applications, as well as a license agreement with OttoBock Healthcare Products Gmbh. Ekso Bionics Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Richmond, California. Ekso Bionics Holdings, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Magee Rehabilitation Hospital.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ekso Bionics Holdings (EKSO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

EKSO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EKSO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7.353 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ekso Bionics Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ekso Bionics Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EKSO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 58.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EKSO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ekso Bionics Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ekso Bionics Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EKSO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $35 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EKSO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.4% for Ekso Bionics Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ekso Bionics Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EKSO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EKSO are equal to 40.2%.

Life of production assets of 1.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ekso Bionics Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EKSO is equal to 1.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $21.391 million for Ekso Bionics Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60.832 million for Ekso Bionics Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ekso Bionics Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ekso Bionics: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Penny Stocks to Watch for September 2018   [Aug-31-18 02:44PM  Investopedia]
▶ Ekso Bionics Appoints Jack Glenn as Chief Financial Officer   [Aug-13-18 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ekso Bionics: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ekso Bionics: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 05:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ When Should You Buy Ekso Bionics Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:EKSO)?   [Mar-30-18 07:03AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ The biggest headwind for stocks since the election is now here   [Jan-29-18 02:33PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Ekso Bionics® Announces Leadership Transition   [Jan-26-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]

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