Intrinsic value of ELLIE MAE - ELLI

Previous Close

$66.31

  Intrinsic Value

$9.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

Previous close

$66.31

 
Intrinsic value

$9.76

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ELLI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.10
  18.59
  17.23
  16.01
  14.91
  13.92
  13.02
  12.22
  11.50
  10.85
  10.27
  9.74
  9.26
  8.84
  8.45
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
Revenue, $m
  501
  594
  696
  808
  928
  1,057
  1,195
  1,341
  1,495
  1,658
  1,828
  2,006
  2,192
  2,385
  2,587
  2,797
  3,015
  3,242
  3,477
  3,722
  3,976
  4,241
  4,516
  4,802
  5,100
  5,410
  5,734
  6,071
  6,422
  6,789
Variable operating expenses, $m
  420
  494
  575
  663
  759
  861
  970
  1,086
  1,208
  1,337
  1,449
  1,591
  1,738
  1,892
  2,051
  2,218
  2,391
  2,570
  2,757
  2,951
  3,153
  3,363
  3,581
  3,808
  4,044
  4,290
  4,547
  4,814
  5,093
  5,384
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  420
  494
  575
  663
  759
  861
  970
  1,086
  1,208
  1,337
  1,449
  1,591
  1,738
  1,892
  2,051
  2,218
  2,391
  2,570
  2,757
  2,951
  3,153
  3,363
  3,581
  3,808
  4,044
  4,290
  4,547
  4,814
  5,093
  5,384
Operating income, $m
  81
  100
  122
  145
  170
  196
  225
  255
  287
  321
  378
  415
  454
  494
  536
  579
  624
  671
  720
  771
  823
  878
  935
  994
  1,056
  1,120
  1,187
  1,257
  1,330
  1,406
EBITDA, $m
  145
  172
  201
  233
  268
  306
  345
  388
  432
  479
  528
  580
  634
  690
  748
  808
  871
  937
  1,005
  1,076
  1,149
  1,226
  1,305
  1,388
  1,474
  1,564
  1,657
  1,755
  1,856
  1,962
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
Earnings before tax, $m
  81
  99
  119
  141
  165
  190
  217
  245
  276
  307
  363
  398
  434
  472
  511
  552
  595
  639
  685
  732
  782
  834
  887
  943
  1,001
  1,062
  1,125
  1,191
  1,259
  1,331
Tax expense, $m
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  59
  66
  74
  83
  98
  107
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
  172
  185
  198
  211
  225
  240
  255
  270
  287
  304
  321
  340
  359
Net income, $m
  59
  73
  87
  103
  120
  139
  158
  179
  201
  224
  265
  290
  317
  344
  373
  403
  434
  466
  500
  535
  571
  609
  648
  688
  731
  775
  821
  869
  919
  971

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  803
  952
  1,116
  1,295
  1,488
  1,695
  1,915
  2,149
  2,396
  2,657
  2,929
  3,214
  3,512
  3,823
  4,146
  4,482
  4,832
  5,195
  5,572
  5,965
  6,372
  6,796
  7,237
  7,696
  8,173
  8,671
  9,189
  9,729
  10,292
  10,880
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  803
  952
  1,116
  1,295
  1,488
  1,695
  1,915
  2,149
  2,396
  2,657
  2,929
  3,214
  3,512
  3,823
  4,146
  4,482
  4,832
  5,195
  5,572
  5,965
  6,372
  6,796
  7,237
  7,696
  8,173
  8,671
  9,189
  9,729
  10,292
  10,880
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
Average production assets, $m
  283
  336
  394
  457
  525
  598
  676
  759
  846
  938
  1,035
  1,135
  1,240
  1,350
  1,464
  1,583
  1,706
  1,835
  1,968
  2,107
  2,251
  2,400
  2,556
  2,718
  2,887
  3,062
  3,245
  3,436
  3,635
  3,843
Working capital, $m
  -19
  -23
  -26
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -98
  -106
  -115
  -123
  -132
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -182
  -194
  -206
  -218
  -231
  -244
  -258
Total debt, $m
  19
  41
  64
  90
  118
  148
  180
  213
  249
  286
  326
  367
  410
  454
  501
  549
  599
  652
  706
  763
  821
  882
  946
  1,012
  1,081
  1,152
  1,227
  1,305
  1,386
  1,470
Total liabilities, $m
  116
  137
  161
  186
  214
  244
  276
  310
  345
  383
  422
  463
  506
  550
  597
  645
  696
  748
  802
  859
  918
  979
  1,042
  1,108
  1,177
  1,249
  1,323
  1,401
  1,482
  1,567
Total equity, $m
  687
  815
  955
  1,108
  1,273
  1,451
  1,639
  1,840
  2,051
  2,274
  2,507
  2,752
  3,007
  3,272
  3,549
  3,837
  4,136
  4,447
  4,770
  5,106
  5,455
  5,818
  6,195
  6,588
  6,996
  7,422
  7,866
  8,328
  8,810
  9,313
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  803
  952
  1,116
  1,294
  1,487
  1,695
  1,915
  2,150
  2,396
  2,657
  2,929
  3,215
  3,513
  3,822
  4,146
  4,482
  4,832
  5,195
  5,572
  5,965
  6,373
  6,797
  7,237
  7,696
  8,173
  8,671
  9,189
  9,729
  10,292
  10,880
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856
  0.856

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  59
  73
  87
  103
  120
  139
  158
  179
  201
  224
  265
  290
  317
  344
  373
  403
  434
  466
  500
  535
  571
  609
  648
  688
  731
  775
  821
  869
  919
  971
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  64
  71
  80
  89
  99
  109
  121
  133
  145
  159
  150
  165
  180
  196
  212
  229
  247
  266
  285
  305
  326
  348
  370
  394
  418
  444
  470
  498
  527
  557
Funds from operations, $m
  123
  144
  167
  192
  219
  248
  279
  312
  346
  383
  415
  455
  497
  540
  585
  632
  681
  732
  785
  840
  897
  956
  1,018
  1,082
  1,149
  1,219
  1,291
  1,367
  1,446
  1,528
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  126
  147
  171
  196
  224
  253
  284
  317
  352
  389
  421
  462
  504
  547
  593
  640
  690
  741
  794
  849
  907
  966
  1,029
  1,093
  1,161
  1,231
  1,304
  1,380
  1,459
  1,542
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -41
  -49
  -57
  -66
  -76
  -87
  -98
  -110
  -123
  -136
  -150
  -165
  -180
  -196
  -212
  -229
  -247
  -266
  -285
  -305
  -326
  -348
  -370
  -394
  -418
  -444
  -470
  -498
  -527
New CAPEX, $m
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -82
  -94
  -107
  -120
  -134
  -149
  -165
  -181
  -197
  -215
  -232
  -251
  -270
  -290
  -310
  -331
  -352
  -375
  -399
  -424
  -449
  -476
  -504
  -532
  -563
  -594
  -627
  -661
  -697
  -735
Free cash flow, $m
  44
  54
  64
  76
  89
  104
  119
  137
  155
  174
  189
  211
  234
  258
  283
  309
  337
  365
  395
  425
  457
  491
  525
  561
  598
  637
  677
  719
  762
  808
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  56
  55
  53
  50
  45
  38
  31
  21
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  75
  76
  77
  76
  73
  68
  63
  55
  46
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  119
  130
  141
  151
  162
  172
  182
  191
  201
  212
  228
  252
  277
  303
  330
  358
  387
  417
  449
  482
  516
  552
  589
  627
  667
  708
  752
  797
  844
  892
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -115
  -128
  -140
  -153
  -165
  -177
  -189
  -200
  -212
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -299
  -311
  -323
  -336
  -349
  -363
  -377
  -393
  -409
  -426
  -444
  -462
  -482
  -503
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  164
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  168
  2
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -5
  8
  22
  37
  53
  70
  88
  107
  126
  146
  167
  189
  211
  234
  258
  283
  308
  334
  361
  389
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  161
  2
  0
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -2
  3
  8
  12
  16
  18
  19
  20
  19
  19
  17
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.0
  94.5
  92.6
  91.1
  89.9
  89.0
  88.4
  88.1
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9
  87.9

Ellie Mae, Inc. is a provider of on-demand software solutions and services for the residential mortgage industry in the United States. Banks, credit unions, mortgage lenders and mortgage brokers use the Company's Encompass mortgage management solution to originate and fund mortgages. The Company's Encompass software is an enterprise solution that handles functions involved in running the business of originating mortgages, including customer relationship management; loan processing; underwriting; preparation of application, disclosure and closing documents; funding and closing the loan for the borrower; compliance with regulatory and investor requirements, and overall enterprise management. It delivers Encompass software in an on-demand Software-as-a-Service (SaaS). It also hosts the Ellie Mae Network, an electronic platform that allows Encompass users to conduct electronic business transactions with investors and service providers they work with in order to process and fund loans.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ELLIE MAE (ELLI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 58.8
Price to Sales 6.2
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 52
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 41.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 58.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 423
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Total Capital 8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.2%
EBITDA Margin 23.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Operating Margin 15.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Net Profit Margin 10.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

ELLI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ELLI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $417.042 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ELLIE MAE. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of ELLIE MAE. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ELLI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ELLI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ELLIE MAE, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ELLIE MAE.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ELLI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ELLI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for ELLIE MAE.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ELLIE MAE. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ELLI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ELLI are equal to 56.6%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ELLIE MAE operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ELLI is equal to -3.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $735.339 million for ELLIE MAE - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.64 million for ELLIE MAE is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ELLIE MAE at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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