Intrinsic value of Callaway Golf - ELY

Previous Close

$23.06

  Intrinsic Value

$46.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+104%

Previous close

$23.06

 
Intrinsic value

$46.99

 
Up/down potential

+104%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ELY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.10
  27.59
  25.33
  23.30
  21.47
  19.82
  18.34
  17.01
  15.80
  14.72
  13.75
  12.88
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.19
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
Revenue, $m
  1,364
  1,741
  2,182
  2,690
  3,268
  3,915
  4,633
  5,421
  6,278
  7,203
  8,193
  9,248
  10,366
  11,546
  12,786
  14,086
  15,445
  16,864
  18,343
  19,882
  21,483
  23,147
  24,876
  26,673
  28,541
  30,483
  32,501
  34,600
  36,785
  39,059
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,088
  1,381
  1,724
  2,119
  2,567
  3,071
  3,629
  4,241
  4,907
  5,625
  6,367
  7,187
  8,055
  8,972
  9,936
  10,946
  12,003
  13,105
  14,254
  15,450
  16,694
  17,987
  19,331
  20,728
  22,179
  23,688
  25,256
  26,888
  28,585
  30,353
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  133
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  151
  155
  158
  162
  165
  169
  173
  176
  180
  184
  188
  192
  197
  201
  205
  210
  214
  219
  224
  229
  234
  239
  244
  250
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,221
  1,517
  1,863
  2,261
  2,712
  3,219
  3,780
  4,396
  5,065
  5,787
  6,532
  7,356
  8,228
  9,148
  10,116
  11,130
  12,191
  13,297
  14,451
  15,651
  16,899
  18,197
  19,545
  20,947
  22,403
  23,917
  25,490
  27,127
  28,829
  30,603
Operating income, $m
  143
  224
  319
  430
  555
  696
  853
  1,026
  1,213
  1,416
  1,661
  1,893
  2,138
  2,397
  2,670
  2,956
  3,255
  3,567
  3,892
  4,231
  4,583
  4,950
  5,331
  5,727
  6,138
  6,566
  7,011
  7,474
  7,955
  8,457
EBITDA, $m
  185
  270
  370
  486
  617
  765
  930
  1,110
  1,307
  1,519
  1,746
  1,989
  2,246
  2,517
  2,803
  3,102
  3,415
  3,742
  4,083
  4,438
  4,807
  5,191
  5,590
  6,004
  6,435
  6,883
  7,349
  7,834
  8,338
  8,863
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  8
  16
  25
  37
  50
  64
  81
  99
  119
  141
  164
  190
  216
  245
  275
  306
  339
  374
  410
  448
  487
  528
  570
  614
  660
  707
  756
  808
  861
  917
Earnings before tax, $m
  135
  208
  294
  393
  506
  632
  772
  927
  1,094
  1,275
  1,497
  1,703
  1,922
  2,153
  2,395
  2,649
  2,915
  3,193
  3,482
  3,783
  4,097
  4,422
  4,761
  5,113
  5,478
  5,859
  6,254
  6,666
  7,094
  7,540
Tax expense, $m
  37
  56
  79
  106
  137
  171
  209
  250
  295
  344
  404
  460
  519
  581
  647
  715
  787
  862
  940
  1,021
  1,106
  1,194
  1,285
  1,380
  1,479
  1,582
  1,689
  1,800
  1,915
  2,036
Net income, $m
  99
  152
  215
  287
  369
  461
  564
  676
  799
  931
  1,093
  1,243
  1,403
  1,571
  1,748
  1,934
  2,128
  2,331
  2,542
  2,762
  2,990
  3,228
  3,475
  3,732
  3,999
  4,277
  4,566
  4,866
  5,179
  5,504

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,290
  1,645
  2,062
  2,543
  3,089
  3,701
  4,379
  5,124
  5,934
  6,808
  7,744
  8,741
  9,798
  10,913
  12,085
  13,314
  14,599
  15,940
  17,337
  18,792
  20,305
  21,878
  23,513
  25,211
  26,977
  28,811
  30,719
  32,704
  34,768
  36,918
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,290
  1,645
  2,062
  2,543
  3,089
  3,701
  4,379
  5,124
  5,934
  6,808
  7,744
  8,741
  9,798
  10,913
  12,085
  13,314
  14,599
  15,940
  17,337
  18,792
  20,305
  21,878
  23,513
  25,211
  26,977
  28,811
  30,719
  32,704
  34,768
  36,918
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.057
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
  1.058
Average production assets, $m
  210
  268
  336
  414
  503
  603
  714
  835
  967
  1,109
  1,262
  1,424
  1,596
  1,778
  1,969
  2,169
  2,379
  2,597
  2,825
  3,062
  3,308
  3,565
  3,831
  4,108
  4,395
  4,694
  5,005
  5,328
  5,665
  6,015
Working capital, $m
  203
  259
  325
  401
  487
  583
  690
  808
  935
  1,073
  1,221
  1,378
  1,545
  1,720
  1,905
  2,099
  2,301
  2,513
  2,733
  2,962
  3,201
  3,449
  3,707
  3,974
  4,253
  4,542
  4,843
  5,155
  5,481
  5,820
Total debt, $m
  203
  326
  470
  635
  824
  1,035
  1,269
  1,526
  1,805
  2,107
  2,430
  2,774
  3,138
  3,523
  3,927
  4,351
  4,795
  5,257
  5,739
  6,241
  6,763
  7,306
  7,870
  8,456
  9,065
  9,698
  10,356
  11,041
  11,753
  12,495
Total liabilities, $m
  445
  568
  711
  877
  1,066
  1,277
  1,511
  1,768
  2,047
  2,349
  2,672
  3,016
  3,380
  3,765
  4,169
  4,593
  5,037
  5,499
  5,981
  6,483
  7,005
  7,548
  8,112
  8,698
  9,307
  9,940
  10,598
  11,283
  11,995
  12,737
Total equity, $m
  845
  1,078
  1,351
  1,665
  2,023
  2,424
  2,868
  3,356
  3,887
  4,459
  5,072
  5,725
  6,418
  7,148
  7,916
  8,721
  9,562
  10,441
  11,356
  12,309
  13,300
  14,330
  15,401
  16,513
  17,670
  18,872
  20,121
  21,421
  22,773
  24,181
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,290
  1,646
  2,062
  2,542
  3,089
  3,701
  4,379
  5,124
  5,934
  6,808
  7,744
  8,741
  9,798
  10,913
  12,085
  13,314
  14,599
  15,940
  17,337
  18,792
  20,305
  21,878
  23,513
  25,211
  26,977
  28,812
  30,719
  32,704
  34,768
  36,918
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.240
  0.300
  0.350
  0.380
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  99
  152
  215
  287
  369
  461
  564
  676
  799
  931
  1,093
  1,243
  1,403
  1,571
  1,748
  1,934
  2,128
  2,331
  2,542
  2,762
  2,990
  3,228
  3,475
  3,732
  3,999
  4,277
  4,566
  4,866
  5,179
  5,504
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  42
  46
  51
  56
  62
  69
  76
  85
  94
  103
  85
  96
  108
  120
  133
  147
  161
  175
  191
  207
  224
  241
  259
  278
  297
  317
  338
  360
  383
  406
Funds from operations, $m
  141
  198
  266
  343
  431
  530
  640
  761
  892
  1,034
  1,178
  1,340
  1,511
  1,691
  1,881
  2,081
  2,289
  2,506
  2,733
  2,969
  3,214
  3,469
  3,734
  4,010
  4,296
  4,594
  4,904
  5,226
  5,561
  5,911
Change in working capital, $m
  47
  56
  66
  76
  86
  97
  107
  117
  128
  138
  148
  157
  167
  176
  185
  194
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  248
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  325
  339
Cash from operations, $m
  94
  142
  200
  267
  345
  434
  533
  644
  765
  896
  1,030
  1,182
  1,344
  1,516
  1,697
  1,887
  2,086
  2,295
  2,512
  2,739
  2,975
  3,221
  3,477
  3,742
  4,018
  4,305
  4,603
  4,913
  5,236
  5,572
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -48
  -56
  -65
  -75
  -85
  -96
  -108
  -120
  -133
  -147
  -161
  -175
  -191
  -207
  -224
  -241
  -259
  -278
  -297
  -317
  -338
  -360
  -383
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -58
  -68
  -78
  -89
  -100
  -111
  -121
  -132
  -142
  -153
  -162
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -256
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -299
  -311
  -323
  -336
  -350
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -60
  -72
  -86
  -101
  -117
  -134
  -152
  -169
  -188
  -207
  -228
  -247
  -268
  -290
  -311
  -333
  -356
  -379
  -403
  -428
  -454
  -480
  -507
  -536
  -566
  -596
  -628
  -661
  -696
  -733
Free cash flow, $m
  35
  70
  114
  166
  228
  300
  382
  474
  576
  688
  803
  935
  1,076
  1,226
  1,386
  1,554
  1,730
  1,916
  2,109
  2,311
  2,522
  2,741
  2,969
  3,206
  3,453
  3,709
  3,975
  4,252
  4,540
  4,839
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  103
  123
  144
  166
  188
  211
  234
  257
  279
  301
  323
  344
  365
  385
  404
  424
  443
  463
  482
  502
  522
  543
  564
  586
  609
  633
  658
  685
  712
  742
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  96
  81
  58
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  199
  204
  202
  194
  188
  211
  234
  257
  279
  301
  323
  344
  365
  385
  404
  424
  443
  463
  482
  502
  522
  543
  564
  586
  609
  633
  658
  685
  712
  742
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  234
  274
  316
  360
  417
  511
  616
  731
  856
  990
  1,126
  1,279
  1,440
  1,611
  1,790
  1,978
  2,174
  2,378
  2,591
  2,813
  3,044
  3,284
  3,533
  3,792
  4,062
  4,342
  4,633
  4,936
  5,252
  5,580
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -195
  -233
  -273
  -315
  -358
  -401
  -445
  -488
  -530
  -572
  -613
  -653
  -692
  -730
  -768
  -805
  -842
  -878
  -915
  -953
  -991
  -1,030
  -1,071
  -1,113
  -1,156
  -1,202
  -1,250
  -1,300
  -1,352
  -1,408
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  39
  41
  43
  45
  59
  110
  172
  243
  325
  418
  513
  625
  748
  881
  1,022
  1,173
  1,332
  1,500
  1,676
  1,860
  2,053
  2,254
  2,463
  2,680
  2,906
  3,140
  3,384
  3,637
  3,899
  4,173
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  38
  37
  37
  37
  46
  80
  116
  152
  187
  219
  243
  267
  284
  296
  300
  298
  290
  276
  258
  236
  212
  187
  161
  136
  113
  92
  73
  56
  43
  31
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.8
  93.1
  91.6
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1
  91.1

Callaway Golf Company designs, manufactures and sells golf clubs, golf balls, golf bags and other golf-related accessories. The Company has two segments: the golf clubs segment and golf balls segment. The golf clubs segment consists of its woods, hybrids, irons and wedges, and Odyssey putters. This segment also includes other golf-related accessories, royalties from licensing of its trademarks and service marks and sales of pre-owned golf clubs. The golf balls segment consists of Callaway Golf and Strata balls that are designed, manufactured and sold by the Company. It sells its products to retailers, directly and through its subsidiaries, and to third-party distributors. It sells pre-owned golf products through its Website, www.callawaygolfpreowned.com. In addition, it sells Callaway Golf and Odyssey products, including Toulon Design by Odyssey, directly to consumers through its Websites, www.callawaygolf.com and www.odysseygolf.com.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Callaway Golf (ELY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.4
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 35
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 2%
Interest Coverage 30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 27.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 36.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Return On Equity 37.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin 21.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Effective Tax Rate -229.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -59%
Payout Ratio 2.1%

ELY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ELY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1048.736 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Callaway Golf. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Callaway Golf. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ELY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 30.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ELY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Callaway Golf, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Callaway Golf.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ELY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $130 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ELY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.8% for Callaway Golf.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Callaway Golf. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ELY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ELY are equal to 15.4%.

Life of production assets of 14.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Callaway Golf operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ELY is equal to 14.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $649.631 million for Callaway Golf - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 94.44 million for Callaway Golf is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Callaway Golf at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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