Intrinsic value of EMCOR Group - EME

Previous Close

$74.26

  Intrinsic Value

$105.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+42%

Previous close

$74.26

 
Intrinsic value

$105.43

 
Up/down potential

+42%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EME stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  7,925
  8,186
  8,469
  8,776
  9,105
  9,458
  9,835
  10,238
  10,666
  11,121
  11,603
  12,114
  12,655
  13,226
  13,830
  14,468
  15,140
  15,849
  16,596
  17,384
  18,213
  19,085
  20,004
  20,970
  21,987
  23,057
  24,181
  25,363
  26,606
  27,913
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,629
  6,842
  7,074
  7,324
  7,594
  7,883
  8,191
  8,521
  8,871
  9,243
  9,491
  9,909
  10,352
  10,819
  11,313
  11,835
  12,385
  12,965
  13,576
  14,220
  14,898
  15,612
  16,363
  17,154
  17,986
  18,860
  19,780
  20,747
  21,764
  22,833
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  964
  985
  1,007
  1,029
  1,051
  1,075
  1,098
  1,122
  1,147
  1,172
  1,198
  1,224
  1,251
  1,279
  1,307
  1,336
  1,365
  1,395
  1,426
  1,457
  1,489
  1,522
  1,556
  1,590
  1,625
  1,660
  1,697
  1,734
  1,773
  1,812
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,593
  7,827
  8,081
  8,353
  8,645
  8,958
  9,289
  9,643
  10,018
  10,415
  10,689
  11,133
  11,603
  12,098
  12,620
  13,171
  13,750
  14,360
  15,002
  15,677
  16,387
  17,134
  17,919
  18,744
  19,611
  20,520
  21,477
  22,481
  23,537
  24,645
Operating income, $m
  333
  359
  389
  422
  460
  501
  546
  595
  648
  706
  914
  980
  1,052
  1,128
  1,210
  1,297
  1,390
  1,489
  1,595
  1,706
  1,825
  1,951
  2,085
  2,227
  2,377
  2,536
  2,704
  2,882
  3,070
  3,268
EBITDA, $m
  528
  556
  587
  623
  662
  706
  753
  805
  860
  921
  986
  1,056
  1,130
  1,211
  1,296
  1,387
  1,484
  1,588
  1,698
  1,815
  1,939
  2,070
  2,209
  2,357
  2,514
  2,679
  2,854
  3,039
  3,235
  3,442
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  40
  45
  51
  58
  65
  72
  80
  88
  97
  106
  116
  126
  137
  148
  160
  173
  186
  200
  215
  231
  247
  264
  282
  301
  321
Earnings before tax, $m
  316
  338
  364
  393
  425
  461
  501
  544
  590
  641
  842
  900
  964
  1,031
  1,104
  1,182
  1,264
  1,352
  1,446
  1,546
  1,652
  1,765
  1,885
  2,012
  2,146
  2,289
  2,439
  2,599
  2,768
  2,947
Tax expense, $m
  85
  91
  98
  106
  115
  125
  135
  147
  159
  173
  227
  243
  260
  278
  298
  319
  341
  365
  391
  417
  446
  477
  509
  543
  579
  618
  659
  702
  747
  796
Net income, $m
  231
  247
  266
  287
  311
  337
  365
  397
  431
  468
  614
  657
  703
  753
  806
  863
  923
  987
  1,056
  1,129
  1,206
  1,288
  1,376
  1,468
  1,567
  1,671
  1,781
  1,897
  2,021
  2,151

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,089
  4,224
  4,370
  4,528
  4,698
  4,880
  5,075
  5,283
  5,504
  5,738
  5,987
  6,251
  6,530
  6,825
  7,136
  7,465
  7,812
  8,178
  8,564
  8,970
  9,398
  9,848
  10,322
  10,821
  11,345
  11,897
  12,477
  13,087
  13,729
  14,403
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,089
  4,224
  4,370
  4,528
  4,698
  4,880
  5,075
  5,283
  5,504
  5,738
  5,987
  6,251
  6,530
  6,825
  7,136
  7,465
  7,812
  8,178
  8,564
  8,970
  9,398
  9,848
  10,322
  10,821
  11,345
  11,897
  12,477
  13,087
  13,729
  14,403
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
  1.938
Average production assets, $m
  888
  917
  949
  983
  1,020
  1,059
  1,102
  1,147
  1,195
  1,246
  1,300
  1,357
  1,417
  1,481
  1,549
  1,620
  1,696
  1,775
  1,859
  1,947
  2,040
  2,138
  2,240
  2,349
  2,463
  2,582
  2,708
  2,841
  2,980
  3,126
Working capital, $m
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  227
  236
  246
  256
  267
  278
  291
  304
  317
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  480
  503
  528
  553
  580
  609
  639
  670
Total debt, $m
  381
  459
  543
  635
  733
  838
  951
  1,071
  1,199
  1,334
  1,478
  1,630
  1,792
  1,962
  2,142
  2,332
  2,533
  2,744
  2,967
  3,202
  3,449
  3,710
  3,984
  4,272
  4,575
  4,894
  5,229
  5,582
  5,953
  6,342
Total liabilities, $m
  2,364
  2,441
  2,526
  2,617
  2,715
  2,821
  2,933
  3,053
  3,181
  3,317
  3,461
  3,613
  3,774
  3,945
  4,125
  4,315
  4,515
  4,727
  4,950
  5,185
  5,432
  5,692
  5,966
  6,254
  6,558
  6,877
  7,212
  7,565
  7,935
  8,325
Total equity, $m
  1,726
  1,783
  1,844
  1,911
  1,983
  2,059
  2,142
  2,229
  2,323
  2,422
  2,527
  2,638
  2,756
  2,880
  3,012
  3,150
  3,297
  3,451
  3,614
  3,785
  3,966
  4,156
  4,356
  4,566
  4,788
  5,021
  5,265
  5,523
  5,794
  6,078
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,090
  4,224
  4,370
  4,528
  4,698
  4,880
  5,075
  5,282
  5,504
  5,739
  5,988
  6,251
  6,530
  6,825
  7,137
  7,465
  7,812
  8,178
  8,564
  8,970
  9,398
  9,848
  10,322
  10,820
  11,346
  11,898
  12,477
  13,088
  13,729
  14,403
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.220
  0.260
  0.290
  0.330
  0.370
  0.410
  0.440
  0.480
  0.520
  0.550
  0.590
  0.620
  0.650
  0.680
  0.710
  0.740
  0.770
  0.800
  0.820
  0.850
  0.870
  0.890
  0.910
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  231
  247
  266
  287
  311
  337
  365
  397
  431
  468
  614
  657
  703
  753
  806
  863
  923
  987
  1,056
  1,129
  1,206
  1,288
  1,376
  1,468
  1,567
  1,671
  1,781
  1,897
  2,021
  2,151
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  195
  197
  199
  201
  203
  205
  207
  210
  212
  215
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
Funds from operations, $m
  426
  444
  464
  487
  513
  542
  573
  606
  643
  683
  687
  733
  782
  835
  892
  953
  1,017
  1,086
  1,159
  1,237
  1,320
  1,407
  1,500
  1,599
  1,703
  1,814
  1,931
  2,055
  2,186
  2,325
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  420
  438
  458
  480
  505
  533
  564
  597
  633
  672
  675
  720
  769
  822
  878
  937
  1,001
  1,069
  1,141
  1,218
  1,300
  1,386
  1,478
  1,576
  1,679
  1,788
  1,904
  2,027
  2,157
  2,294
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -76
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -183
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -232
  -244
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -297
  -312
Free cash flow, $m
  344
  359
  375
  393
  414
  437
  462
  491
  521
  555
  552
  591
  633
  679
  728
  780
  836
  895
  959
  1,027
  1,099
  1,175
  1,257
  1,343
  1,435
  1,532
  1,635
  1,744
  1,859
  1,982
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  71
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  211
  223
  235
  247
  260
  274
  288
  303
  319
  335
  353
  371
  390
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  71
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  211
  223
  235
  247
  260
  274
  288
  303
  319
  335
  353
  371
  390
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  415
  437
  459
  484
  512
  542
  575
  611
  649
  690
  696
  743
  795
  849
  908
  970
  1,036
  1,107
  1,182
  1,261
  1,346
  1,436
  1,531
  1,631
  1,738
  1,851
  1,970
  2,097
  2,230
  2,371
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -171
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -271
  -284
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  363
  380
  398
  418
  440
  465
  493
  523
  556
  591
  591
  632
  677
  725
  776
  831
  890
  952
  1,019
  1,090
  1,165
  1,245
  1,331
  1,421
  1,517
  1,618
  1,725
  1,839
  1,960
  2,087
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  348
  348
  346
  344
  341
  338
  333
  327
  319
  310
  280
  270
  257
  243
  228
  211
  194
  175
  157
  138
  121
  103
  87
  72
  59
  47
  37
  28
  21
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EMCOR Group, Inc. is an electrical and mechanical construction, and facilities services firm in the United States. The Company provides building services and industrial services. Its segments are United States electrical construction and facilities services; United States mechanical construction and facilities services; United States building services; United States industrial services, and United Kingdom building services. As of December 31, 2016, its services were provided to a range of commercial, industrial, utility and institutional customers through approximately 75 operating subsidiaries and joint venture entities. It is providing construction services relating to electrical and mechanical systems in various types of non-residential and certain residential facilities, and in providing services relating to the operation, maintenance and management of facilities, including refineries and petrochemical plants. It operates various electrical and mechanical systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EMCOR Group (EME)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.5
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 31
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 26.5%
Total Debt to Equity 27.5%
Interest Coverage 28
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Operating Margin 4.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Payout Ratio 10.4%

EME stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EME stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7686.999 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EMCOR Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of EMCOR Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EME stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EME is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EMCOR Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EMCOR Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EME stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $943 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EME stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for EMCOR Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EMCOR Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EME stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EME are equal to 11.2%.

Life of production assets of 18 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EMCOR Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EME is equal to 2.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1673.267 million for EMCOR Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.18 million for EMCOR Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EMCOR Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ EMCOR Group, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-02-18 12:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is EMCOR Group Incs (NYSE:EME) Cash Outlook Optimistic?   [Sep-28-18 03:04PM  Simply Wall St.]
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▶ Did EMCOR Group Inc (NYSE:EME) Insiders Sell Their Own Shares?   [Aug-29-18 02:36PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Emcor Group: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-26-18 10:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ EMCOR Group, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-09-18 12:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ What Does EMCOR Group Incs (NYSE:EME) Share Price Indicate?   [Jun-21-18 10:57AM  Simply Wall St.]
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▶ EMCOR Group, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-04-18 12:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Does EMCOR Group Incs (NYSE:EME) PE Ratio Warrant A Sell?   [Apr-03-18 05:03PM  Simply Wall St.]
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▶ Emcor Group beats Street 4Q forecasts   [08:23AM  Associated Press]

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