Intrinsic value of Eastman Chemical Company - EMN

Previous Close

$65.49

  Intrinsic Value

$92.58

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+41%

Previous close

$65.49

 
Intrinsic value

$92.58

 
Up/down potential

+41%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EMN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  10,354
  10,592
  10,864
  11,170
  11,509
  11,880
  12,285
  12,723
  13,195
  13,701
  14,243
  14,821
  15,436
  16,090
  16,784
  17,520
  18,299
  19,122
  19,992
  20,911
  21,880
  22,902
  23,979
  25,115
  26,310
  27,569
  28,894
  30,288
  31,755
  33,298
Variable operating expenses, $m
  8,674
  8,858
  9,068
  9,305
  9,567
  9,854
  10,167
  10,506
  10,871
  11,262
  11,016
  11,463
  11,939
  12,445
  12,982
  13,551
  14,153
  14,790
  15,463
  16,174
  16,923
  17,714
  18,547
  19,425
  20,350
  21,324
  22,349
  23,427
  24,562
  25,755
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,674
  8,858
  9,068
  9,305
  9,567
  9,854
  10,167
  10,506
  10,871
  11,262
  11,016
  11,463
  11,939
  12,445
  12,982
  13,551
  14,153
  14,790
  15,463
  16,174
  16,923
  17,714
  18,547
  19,425
  20,350
  21,324
  22,349
  23,427
  24,562
  25,755
Operating income, $m
  1,680
  1,734
  1,796
  1,865
  1,942
  2,026
  2,118
  2,217
  2,324
  2,438
  3,226
  3,357
  3,497
  3,645
  3,802
  3,969
  4,145
  4,332
  4,529
  4,737
  4,956
  5,188
  5,432
  5,689
  5,960
  6,245
  6,545
  6,861
  7,194
  7,543
EBITDA, $m
  2,793
  2,857
  2,931
  3,013
  3,104
  3,205
  3,314
  3,432
  3,559
  3,696
  3,842
  3,998
  4,164
  4,340
  4,528
  4,726
  4,936
  5,158
  5,393
  5,641
  5,902
  6,178
  6,468
  6,775
  7,097
  7,437
  7,794
  8,170
  8,566
  8,982
Interest expense (income), $m
  280
  333
  344
  356
  371
  388
  406
  426
  448
  472
  497
  525
  554
  586
  619
  654
  692
  732
  774
  819
  866
  915
  968
  1,023
  1,082
  1,143
  1,208
  1,276
  1,348
  1,423
  1,503
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,347
  1,391
  1,439
  1,494
  1,554
  1,620
  1,691
  1,769
  1,852
  1,941
  2,702
  2,803
  2,911
  3,026
  3,148
  3,277
  3,413
  3,558
  3,710
  3,871
  4,041
  4,220
  4,409
  4,608
  4,817
  5,037
  5,269
  5,513
  5,770
  6,040
Tax expense, $m
  364
  375
  389
  403
  420
  437
  457
  478
  500
  524
  729
  757
  786
  817
  850
  885
  922
  961
  1,002
  1,045
  1,091
  1,139
  1,190
  1,244
  1,301
  1,360
  1,423
  1,489
  1,558
  1,631
Net income, $m
  983
  1,015
  1,051
  1,091
  1,134
  1,183
  1,235
  1,291
  1,352
  1,417
  1,972
  2,046
  2,125
  2,209
  2,298
  2,392
  2,492
  2,597
  2,708
  2,826
  2,950
  3,081
  3,218
  3,364
  3,516
  3,677
  3,847
  4,025
  4,212
  4,409

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  16,306
  16,681
  17,109
  17,591
  18,124
  18,709
  19,346
  20,036
  20,779
  21,576
  22,429
  23,340
  24,309
  25,339
  26,432
  27,590
  28,817
  30,113
  31,483
  32,930
  34,456
  36,066
  37,763
  39,551
  41,433
  43,416
  45,502
  47,698
  50,008
  52,438
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  16,306
  16,681
  17,109
  17,591
  18,124
  18,709
  19,346
  20,036
  20,779
  21,576
  22,429
  23,340
  24,309
  25,339
  26,432
  27,590
  28,817
  30,113
  31,483
  32,930
  34,456
  36,066
  37,763
  39,551
  41,433
  43,416
  45,502
  47,698
  50,008
  52,438
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
Average production assets, $m
  9,174
  9,385
  9,626
  9,897
  10,197
  10,526
  10,884
  11,272
  11,690
  12,139
  12,619
  13,131
  13,676
  14,256
  14,871
  15,523
  16,213
  16,942
  17,713
  18,527
  19,385
  20,291
  21,246
  22,252
  23,311
  24,426
  25,600
  26,835
  28,135
  29,502
Working capital, $m
  1,563
  1,599
  1,641
  1,687
  1,738
  1,794
  1,855
  1,921
  1,992
  2,069
  2,151
  2,238
  2,331
  2,430
  2,534
  2,646
  2,763
  2,887
  3,019
  3,157
  3,304
  3,458
  3,621
  3,792
  3,973
  4,163
  4,363
  4,574
  4,795
  5,028
Total debt, $m
  6,363
  6,602
  6,875
  7,181
  7,521
  7,894
  8,299
  8,739
  9,212
  9,720
  10,264
  10,843
  11,461
  12,117
  12,813
  13,551
  14,332
  15,158
  16,031
  16,952
  17,925
  18,950
  20,031
  21,170
  22,369
  23,632
  24,961
  26,360
  27,831
  29,379
Total liabilities, $m
  10,387
  10,626
  10,899
  11,205
  11,545
  11,918
  12,323
  12,763
  13,236
  13,744
  14,288
  14,867
  15,485
  16,141
  16,837
  17,575
  18,356
  19,182
  20,055
  20,976
  21,949
  22,974
  24,055
  25,194
  26,393
  27,656
  28,985
  30,384
  31,855
  33,403
Total equity, $m
  5,919
  6,055
  6,211
  6,385
  6,579
  6,791
  7,023
  7,273
  7,543
  7,832
  8,142
  8,472
  8,824
  9,198
  9,595
  10,015
  10,460
  10,931
  11,428
  11,954
  12,508
  13,092
  13,708
  14,357
  15,040
  15,760
  16,517
  17,314
  18,153
  19,035
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  16,306
  16,681
  17,110
  17,590
  18,124
  18,709
  19,346
  20,036
  20,779
  21,576
  22,430
  23,339
  24,309
  25,339
  26,432
  27,590
  28,816
  30,113
  31,483
  32,930
  34,457
  36,066
  37,763
  39,551
  41,433
  43,416
  45,502
  47,698
  50,008
  52,438
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.350
  1.370
  1.390
  1.400
  1.420
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363
  0.363

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  983
  1,015
  1,051
  1,091
  1,134
  1,183
  1,235
  1,291
  1,352
  1,417
  1,972
  2,046
  2,125
  2,209
  2,298
  2,392
  2,492
  2,597
  2,708
  2,826
  2,950
  3,081
  3,218
  3,364
  3,516
  3,677
  3,847
  4,025
  4,212
  4,409
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,113
  1,123
  1,135
  1,148
  1,163
  1,179
  1,196
  1,215
  1,235
  1,257
  616
  641
  667
  695
  725
  757
  791
  826
  864
  904
  946
  990
  1,036
  1,085
  1,137
  1,192
  1,249
  1,309
  1,372
  1,439
Funds from operations, $m
  2,096
  2,138
  2,186
  2,239
  2,297
  2,361
  2,431
  2,506
  2,587
  2,674
  2,588
  2,687
  2,792
  2,904
  3,023
  3,149
  3,283
  3,424
  3,573
  3,730
  3,896
  4,070
  4,255
  4,449
  4,653
  4,869
  5,095
  5,334
  5,585
  5,848
Change in working capital, $m
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  124
  131
  139
  146
  154
  163
  171
  181
  190
  200
  211
  221
  233
Cash from operations, $m
  2,066
  2,102
  2,144
  2,192
  2,246
  2,305
  2,370
  2,440
  2,516
  2,598
  2,506
  2,600
  2,699
  2,806
  2,919
  3,038
  3,165
  3,299
  3,441
  3,591
  3,749
  3,916
  4,092
  4,278
  4,473
  4,679
  4,895
  5,123
  5,363
  5,615
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -439
  -447
  -458
  -470
  -483
  -497
  -513
  -531
  -550
  -570
  -592
  -616
  -641
  -667
  -695
  -725
  -757
  -791
  -826
  -864
  -904
  -946
  -990
  -1,036
  -1,085
  -1,137
  -1,192
  -1,249
  -1,309
  -1,372
New CAPEX, $m
  -182
  -211
  -241
  -271
  -300
  -329
  -358
  -388
  -418
  -449
  -480
  -512
  -545
  -580
  -615
  -652
  -690
  -730
  -771
  -814
  -859
  -906
  -955
  -1,006
  -1,059
  -1,115
  -1,174
  -1,235
  -1,300
  -1,367
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -621
  -658
  -699
  -741
  -783
  -826
  -871
  -919
  -968
  -1,019
  -1,072
  -1,128
  -1,186
  -1,247
  -1,310
  -1,377
  -1,447
  -1,521
  -1,597
  -1,678
  -1,763
  -1,852
  -1,945
  -2,042
  -2,144
  -2,252
  -2,366
  -2,484
  -2,609
  -2,739
Free cash flow, $m
  1,445
  1,444
  1,445
  1,452
  1,463
  1,478
  1,498
  1,521
  1,548
  1,579
  1,434
  1,472
  1,514
  1,559
  1,608
  1,661
  1,718
  1,779
  1,844
  1,913
  1,987
  2,065
  2,148
  2,235
  2,328
  2,426
  2,530
  2,639
  2,754
  2,876
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  195
  239
  273
  307
  340
  373
  406
  439
  473
  508
  543
  580
  617
  656
  696
  738
  781
  826
  873
  921
  972
  1,025
  1,081
  1,139
  1,199
  1,263
  1,329
  1,399
  1,471
  1,548
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  195
  239
  273
  307
  340
  373
  406
  439
  473
  508
  543
  580
  617
  656
  696
  738
  781
  826
  873
  921
  972
  1,025
  1,081
  1,139
  1,199
  1,263
  1,329
  1,399
  1,471
  1,548
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,639
  1,683
  1,719
  1,759
  1,803
  1,851
  1,904
  1,960
  2,021
  2,087
  1,977
  2,052
  2,131
  2,215
  2,304
  2,399
  2,499
  2,605
  2,717
  2,835
  2,959
  3,090
  3,228
  3,374
  3,528
  3,689
  3,859
  4,038
  4,226
  4,424
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -116
  -136
  -156
  -175
  -194
  -212
  -231
  -250
  -270
  -289
  -310
  -330
  -352
  -374
  -397
  -420
  -445
  -471
  -497
  -525
  -554
  -584
  -616
  -649
  -683
  -720
  -757
  -797
  -839
  -882
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,523
  1,546
  1,563
  1,584
  1,609
  1,639
  1,672
  1,710
  1,752
  1,797
  1,668
  1,721
  1,779
  1,841
  1,908
  1,979
  2,054
  2,134
  2,219
  2,309
  2,405
  2,506
  2,613
  2,725
  2,844
  2,969
  3,102
  3,241
  3,387
  3,542
Discount rate, %
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,421
  1,337
  1,243
  1,150
  1,058
  967
  878
  790
  705
  623
  492
  427
  366
  310
  258
  212
  172
  137
  107
  82
  61
  45
  32
  23
  15
  10
  7
  4
  3
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Eastman Chemical Company (Eastman) is an advanced materials and specialty additives company. The Company's segments include Additives & Functional Products (AFP), Advanced Materials (AM), Chemical Intermediates (CI), and Fibers. In the AFP segment, it manufactures chemicals for products in the coatings, tires, consumables, building and construction, industrial applications, including solar energy markets, animal nutrition, care chemicals, crop protection, and energy markets. In the AM segment, it produces and markets its polymers, films, and plastics with differentiated performance properties for end uses in transportation, consumables, building and construction, durable goods, and health and wellness products. The CI segment leverages large scale and vertical integration from the cellulose and acetyl, olefins, and alkylamines streams to support its specialty operating segments. Its product lines in Fibers segment include Acetate Tow, Acetate Yarn and Acetyl Chemical Products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.2
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 139.3%
Total Debt to Equity 145.5%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Equity 20.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
EBITDA Margin 21.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Operating Margin 14.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Net Profit Margin 9.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Effective Tax Rate 18.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Payout Ratio 31.9%

EMN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EMN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10151 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Eastman Chemical Company. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Eastman Chemical Company. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EMN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for EMN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Eastman Chemical Company, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Eastman Chemical Company.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EMN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EMN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Eastman Chemical Company.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Eastman Chemical Company. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EMN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EMN are equal to 88.6%.

Life of production assets of 20.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Eastman Chemical Company operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EMN is equal to 15.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5803 million for Eastman Chemical Company - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 139.751 million for Eastman Chemical Company is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Eastman Chemical Company at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.2 billion.

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