Intrinsic value of Enphase Energy - ENPH

Previous Close

$5.40

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$5.40

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENPH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  292
  299
  306
  315
  324
  335
  346
  359
  372
  386
  402
  418
  435
  454
  473
  494
  516
  539
  564
  589
  617
  646
  676
  708
  742
  777
  815
  854
  895
  939
Variable operating expenses, $m
  349
  357
  366
  377
  388
  400
  414
  429
  445
  462
  480
  499
  520
  542
  565
  590
  616
  644
  673
  704
  737
  771
  808
  846
  886
  928
  973
  1,020
  1,069
  1,121
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  349
  357
  366
  377
  388
  400
  414
  429
  445
  462
  480
  499
  520
  542
  565
  590
  616
  644
  673
  704
  737
  771
  808
  846
  886
  928
  973
  1,020
  1,069
  1,121
Operating income, $m
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
EBITDA, $m
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  9
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
Earnings before tax, $m
  -67
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -249
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -67
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -249

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  173
  177
  181
  186
  192
  198
  205
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  482
  505
  529
  555
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  173
  177
  181
  186
  192
  198
  205
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  482
  505
  529
  555
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.688
  1.689
  1.691
  1.694
  1.688
  1.692
  1.688
  1.693
  1.691
  1.693
  1.696
  1.692
  1.693
  1.694
  1.689
  1.692
  1.692
  1.690
  1.694
  1.688
  1.690
  1.691
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.689
  1.691
  1.691
  1.692
  1.692
Average production assets, $m
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
Working capital, $m
  27
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
Total debt, $m
  27
  30
  34
  39
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  77
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  146
  158
  171
  185
  200
  215
  231
  248
  266
  285
  305
  326
  348
  371
Total liabilities, $m
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  232
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  454
  476
  500
Total equity, $m
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  172
  177
  181
  187
  192
  198
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  247
  258
  268
  280
  292
  306
  319
  333
  349
  364
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  482
  504
  529
  556
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.550
  1.720
  1.900
  2.100
  2.300
  2.510
  2.720
  2.940
  3.160
  3.370
  3.590
  3.800
  4.010
  4.210
  4.410
  4.600
  4.790
  4.970
  5.140
  5.310
  5.480
  5.630
  5.790
  5.930
  6.070
  6.200
  6.330
  6.450
  6.570
  6.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -67
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -249
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
Funds from operations, $m
  -60
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -217
  -228
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  -60
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -232
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
Free cash flow, $m
  -67
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -257
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -23
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  93
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  90
  94
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  193
  204
  215
  226
  239
  251
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  70
  68
  70
  74
  77
  81
  84
  89
  92
  98
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  163
  172
  180
  190
  201
  211
  223
  235
  247
  261
  274
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -93
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -239
  -251
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -90
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -162
  -170
  -180
  -189
  -200
  -210
  -222
  -233
Discount rate, %
  9.60
  10.08
  10.58
  11.11
  11.67
  12.25
  12.86
  13.51
  14.18
  14.89
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.10
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.00
  23.10
  24.26
  25.47
  26.75
  28.08
  29.49
  30.96
  32.51
  34.13
  35.84
  37.63
  39.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -82
  -50
  -46
  -43
  -39
  -35
  -31
  -28
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  10.6
  2.2
  0.5
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Enphase Energy, Inc. is a provider of energy management solutions. The Company is engaged in designing, developing, manufacturing and selling microinverter systems for the solar photovoltaic industry. Its semiconductor-based microinverter system converts direct current (DC) electricity to alternating current (AC) electricity. Its microinverter system consists of three components: Enphase microinverters, an Envoy gateway and Enlighten cloud-based software. Its Enphase microinverters provide power conversion at the individual solar module level by a digital architecture that incorporates custom application specific integrated circuits (ASIC), specialized power electronics devices, and an embedded software subsystem. Envoy bi-directional communications gateway provides collecting and sending data to Enlighten software. Enlighten cloud-based software provides the capabilities to remotely monitor, manage, and maintain an individual system or a fleet of systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Enphase Energy (ENPH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 336.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -7.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2100%
Total Debt to Equity 3400%
Interest Coverage -21
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -38.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Return On Total Capital -144.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.6%
Return On Equity -319%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -129.1%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27%
EBITDA Margin -16.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.1%
Operating Margin -19.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -20.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Net Profit Margin -20.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.7%
Effective Tax Rate -1.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

ENPH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENPH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $286.166 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Enphase Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Enphase Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENPH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.6%, whose default value for ENPH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Enphase Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Enphase Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENPH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 119.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENPH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 19% for Enphase Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Enphase Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENPH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENPH are equal to 10.9%.

Life of production assets of 3.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Enphase Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENPH is equal to 9.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-9.126 million for Enphase Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 96.849 million for Enphase Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Enphase Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Enphase Energy Rolls Out Service Program for Early Adopters   [Nov-13-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Enphase Energy: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Enphase Energy Inc's Shares Popped 15% Today   [Sep-27-18 04:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Enphase Energy Inc. Shares Popped 15% Today   [Sep-25-18 03:41PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Enphase Energy Inc.'s Shares Popped 13% Today   [Sep-18-18 03:50PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Enphase Energy Inc.'s Shares Plunged 13% Today   [Aug-15-18 01:27PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Top Stocks That Aren't On Wall Street's Radar   [Aug-07-18 06:02AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Enphase Energy Inc. Shares Fell 15.5% Today   [Aug-01-18 01:50PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Enphase Energy: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-31-18 06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ The 3 Best Solar Stocks of 2018 (So Far)   [09:32AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Enphase Energy to Host Analyst Day   [Jul-26-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Enphase Energy Enhances Customer Experience   [Jul-19-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 Top Stocks Under $10   [Jul-14-18 02:20PM  Motley Fool]
▶ The Shadow Over SolarEdge   [Jul-02-18 08:54AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Harry Boxers four momentum stocks breaking out   [Jun-27-18 12:03PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Enphase Energy to Acquire SunPowers Microinverter Business   [Jun-12-18 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Enphase Energy names former Tesla executive as CFO   [Jun-04-18 08:20AM  Reuters]
▶ Penny Stocks to Watch for June 2018   [May-31-18 03:44PM  Investopedia]
▶ Enphase Energy Announces 4.5MW Solar Installation in India   [May-29-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Will the Dip Buyers Stick Around?   [May-23-18 10:41AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Why Enphase Energy's Shares Popped 14% Today   [May-16-18 03:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Stocks That Doubled to Start 2018   [May-14-18 09:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Solar Stocks Charged Higher Thursday   [May-11-18 10:05AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Enphase Energy Inc's Shares Popped 19% Today   [May-02-18 03:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Enphase Energy: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kensho's clean tech index   [Apr-30-18 09:39AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Enphase Energy Announces IQ Microinverters Across India   [Apr-16-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]

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