Intrinsic value of Ensign Group - ENSG

Previous Close

$37.92

  Intrinsic Value

$13.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$37.92

 
Intrinsic value

$13.43

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENSG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.61
  8.25
  7.93
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  2,067
  2,297
  2,538
  2,791
  3,055
  3,331
  3,618
  3,916
  4,227
  4,549
  4,885
  5,233
  5,595
  5,972
  6,363
  6,770
  7,194
  7,636
  8,095
  8,574
  9,074
  9,595
  10,139
  10,707
  11,301
  11,921
  12,569
  13,248
  13,957
  14,700
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,952
  2,167
  2,394
  2,631
  2,878
  3,136
  3,405
  3,685
  3,976
  4,279
  4,579
  4,906
  5,245
  5,598
  5,965
  6,347
  6,744
  7,158
  7,589
  8,038
  8,507
  8,995
  9,505
  10,038
  10,594
  11,176
  11,784
  12,419
  13,084
  13,781
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,952
  2,167
  2,394
  2,631
  2,878
  3,136
  3,405
  3,685
  3,976
  4,279
  4,579
  4,906
  5,245
  5,598
  5,965
  6,347
  6,744
  7,158
  7,589
  8,038
  8,507
  8,995
  9,505
  10,038
  10,594
  11,176
  11,784
  12,419
  13,084
  13,781
Operating income, $m
  115
  130
  145
  161
  177
  194
  212
  231
  250
  271
  305
  327
  350
  373
  398
  423
  450
  477
  506
  536
  567
  600
  634
  669
  706
  745
  786
  828
  873
  919
EBITDA, $m
  201
  223
  247
  271
  297
  324
  352
  381
  411
  442
  475
  509
  544
  581
  619
  658
  699
  742
  787
  834
  882
  933
  986
  1,041
  1,099
  1,159
  1,222
  1,288
  1,357
  1,429
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  38
  43
  48
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  164
  175
  185
  196
  208
  220
  232
Earnings before tax, $m
  98
  109
  120
  131
  143
  156
  169
  183
  197
  211
  240
  256
  273
  290
  308
  326
  345
  365
  386
  408
  431
  454
  479
  505
  532
  560
  590
  620
  653
  687
Tax expense, $m
  27
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  144
  151
  159
  168
  176
  185
Net income, $m
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  123
  133
  144
  154
  176
  187
  199
  212
  225
  238
  252
  267
  282
  298
  314
  332
  350
  369
  388
  409
  430
  453
  476
  501

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,233
  1,370
  1,514
  1,664
  1,822
  1,986
  2,157
  2,335
  2,520
  2,713
  2,913
  3,120
  3,336
  3,561
  3,794
  4,037
  4,290
  4,553
  4,827
  5,113
  5,411
  5,722
  6,046
  6,385
  6,739
  7,108
  7,495
  7,900
  8,323
  8,765
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,233
  1,370
  1,514
  1,664
  1,822
  1,986
  2,157
  2,335
  2,520
  2,713
  2,913
  3,120
  3,336
  3,561
  3,794
  4,037
  4,290
  4,553
  4,827
  5,113
  5,411
  5,722
  6,046
  6,385
  6,739
  7,108
  7,495
  7,900
  8,323
  8,765
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.676
  1.677
  1.676
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
  1.677
Average production assets, $m
  717
  797
  881
  969
  1,060
  1,156
  1,255
  1,359
  1,467
  1,579
  1,695
  1,816
  1,942
  2,072
  2,208
  2,349
  2,496
  2,650
  2,809
  2,975
  3,149
  3,330
  3,518
  3,715
  3,921
  4,137
  4,362
  4,597
  4,843
  5,101
Working capital, $m
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -201
  -213
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -309
Total debt, $m
  384
  460
  540
  623
  710
  801
  895
  994
  1,096
  1,203
  1,313
  1,428
  1,548
  1,672
  1,801
  1,935
  2,075
  2,220
  2,372
  2,530
  2,695
  2,867
  3,046
  3,233
  3,429
  3,633
  3,847
  4,071
  4,305
  4,550
Total liabilities, $m
  682
  757
  837
  920
  1,007
  1,098
  1,193
  1,291
  1,394
  1,500
  1,611
  1,726
  1,845
  1,969
  2,098
  2,233
  2,372
  2,518
  2,669
  2,827
  2,992
  3,164
  3,343
  3,531
  3,726
  3,931
  4,145
  4,368
  4,602
  4,847
Total equity, $m
  551
  612
  677
  744
  814
  888
  964
  1,044
  1,127
  1,213
  1,302
  1,395
  1,491
  1,592
  1,696
  1,805
  1,918
  2,035
  2,158
  2,285
  2,419
  2,558
  2,703
  2,854
  3,012
  3,177
  3,350
  3,531
  3,720
  3,918
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,233
  1,369
  1,514
  1,664
  1,821
  1,986
  2,157
  2,335
  2,521
  2,713
  2,913
  3,121
  3,336
  3,561
  3,794
  4,038
  4,290
  4,553
  4,827
  5,112
  5,411
  5,722
  6,046
  6,385
  6,738
  7,108
  7,495
  7,899
  8,322
  8,765
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.700
  0.750
  0.800
  0.840
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  123
  133
  144
  154
  176
  187
  199
  212
  225
  238
  252
  267
  282
  298
  314
  332
  350
  369
  388
  409
  430
  453
  476
  501
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  129
  139
  150
  161
  172
  169
  182
  194
  207
  221
  235
  250
  265
  281
  298
  315
  333
  352
  372
  392
  414
  436
  460
  484
  510
Funds from operations, $m
  157
  173
  190
  207
  225
  243
  263
  283
  304
  326
  345
  369
  393
  419
  445
  473
  502
  532
  563
  595
  629
  665
  702
  740
  780
  823
  867
  913
  961
  1,011
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Cash from operations, $m
  162
  178
  195
  212
  230
  249
  269
  289
  311
  333
  352
  376
  401
  427
  454
  481
  511
  541
  572
  605
  640
  676
  713
  752
  793
  836
  880
  927
  976
  1,027
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -169
  -182
  -194
  -207
  -221
  -235
  -250
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -315
  -333
  -352
  -372
  -392
  -414
  -436
  -460
  -484
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -258
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -140
  -152
  -164
  -176
  -189
  -202
  -216
  -230
  -244
  -259
  -274
  -290
  -308
  -325
  -343
  -362
  -382
  -403
  -425
  -447
  -471
  -496
  -522
  -549
  -578
  -607
  -639
  -671
  -706
  -742
Free cash flow, $m
  22
  26
  31
  36
  42
  48
  54
  60
  67
  74
  78
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  242
  255
  270
  285
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  71
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  71
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  93
  102
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
  159
  169
  181
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  254
  268
  284
  300
  316
  334
  352
  371
  390
  411
  433
  455
  479
  504
  530
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
Cash available for distribution, $m
  34
  41
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  79
  87
  95
  99
  108
  116
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  200
  213
  226
  239
  253
  267
  283
  298
  315
  332
Discount rate, %
  5.80
  6.09
  6.39
  6.71
  7.05
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.48
  12.06
  12.66
  13.29
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.81
  18.71
  19.64
  20.62
  21.65
  22.74
  23.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  32
  36
  39
  40
  42
  42
  43
  42
  41
  40
  37
  35
  32
  29
  26
  23
  20
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Ensign Group, Inc., through its operating subsidiaries, provides healthcare services across the post-acute care continuum, as well as other ancillary businesses located in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin. The Company's subsidiaries provide skilled nursing, assisted living, home health and hospice, and other ancillary services. Its segments include transitional and skilled services segment, which includes the operation of skilled nursing facilities; assisted and independent living services segment, which includes the operation of assisted and independent living facilities; home health and hospice services segment, which includes its home health, home care and hospice businesses, and all other segment, which includes mobile diagnostics and other ancillary operations. As of July10, 2017, it operated in 226 healthcare facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ensign Group (ENSG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.9
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -17.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 139.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 44.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 60.5%
Total Debt to Equity 62.3%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 11.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Operating Margin 5.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 38.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Payout Ratio 16%

ENSG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENSG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1849 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ensign Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ensign Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENSG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.8%, whose default value for ENSG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ensign Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ensign Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENSG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENSG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ensign Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ensign Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENSG stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENSG are equal to 34.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ensign Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENSG is equal to -2.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $492 million for Ensign Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51 million for Ensign Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ensign Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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▶ Ensign Group: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 07:39PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Ensign Group tops Street 4Q forecasts   [05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy The Ensign Group Inc (NASDAQ:ENSG) At $22.81?   [Feb-01-18 05:39PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ The Ensign Group Closes on HUD-Insured Loan Portfolio   [Dec-27-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ensign Group misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-08-17 07:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ CareTrust REIT Provides an Update on its Texas Properties   [Aug-31-17 11:59PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ensign Group misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
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