Intrinsic value of Enanta Pharmaceuticals - ENTA

Previous Close

$90.93

  Intrinsic Value

$273.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+201%

Previous close

$90.93

 
Intrinsic value

$273.61

 
Up/down potential

+201%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENTA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  165
  254
  380
  551
  778
  1,070
  1,436
  1,885
  2,426
  3,064
  3,805
  4,652
  5,607
  6,671
  7,844
  9,125
  10,511
  12,001
  13,592
  15,281
  17,067
  18,947
  20,921
  22,987
  25,145
  27,395
  29,738
  32,176
  34,711
  37,346
Variable operating expenses, $m
  107
  165
  247
  358
  506
  695
  933
  1,225
  1,577
  1,992
  2,473
  3,024
  3,645
  4,336
  5,099
  5,931
  6,832
  7,801
  8,835
  9,933
  11,093
  12,316
  13,599
  14,941
  16,344
  17,807
  19,330
  20,914
  22,562
  24,275
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  107
  165
  247
  358
  506
  695
  933
  1,225
  1,577
  1,992
  2,473
  3,024
  3,645
  4,336
  5,099
  5,931
  6,832
  7,801
  8,835
  9,933
  11,093
  12,316
  13,599
  14,941
  16,344
  17,807
  19,330
  20,914
  22,562
  24,275
Operating income, $m
  58
  89
  133
  193
  272
  374
  503
  660
  849
  1,072
  1,332
  1,628
  1,963
  2,335
  2,746
  3,194
  3,679
  4,200
  4,757
  5,348
  5,973
  6,632
  7,322
  8,045
  8,801
  9,588
  10,408
  11,262
  12,149
  13,071
EBITDA, $m
  60
  93
  139
  202
  284
  391
  525
  689
  887
  1,120
  1,391
  1,701
  2,050
  2,439
  2,868
  3,336
  3,843
  4,388
  4,969
  5,587
  6,240
  6,927
  7,649
  8,404
  9,193
  10,015
  10,872
  11,764
  12,690
  13,654
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  6
  9
  13
  17
  23
  30
  39
  48
  59
  72
  86
  101
  118
  136
  155
  176
  198
  222
  246
  272
  299
  327
  357
  387
  419
  452
Earnings before tax, $m
  58
  88
  131
  189
  266
  366
  490
  642
  826
  1,042
  1,293
  1,580
  1,903
  2,263
  2,660
  3,093
  3,561
  4,064
  4,602
  5,172
  5,775
  6,410
  7,076
  7,773
  8,502
  9,261
  10,052
  10,874
  11,730
  12,619
Tax expense, $m
  16
  24
  35
  51
  72
  99
  132
  173
  223
  281
  349
  427
  514
  611
  718
  835
  961
  1,097
  1,242
  1,396
  1,559
  1,731
  1,911
  2,099
  2,295
  2,500
  2,714
  2,936
  3,167
  3,407
Net income, $m
  42
  64
  96
  138
  195
  267
  358
  469
  603
  761
  944
  1,153
  1,389
  1,652
  1,942
  2,258
  2,600
  2,967
  3,359
  3,776
  4,216
  4,679
  5,166
  5,675
  6,206
  6,761
  7,338
  7,938
  8,563
  9,212

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  197
  304
  455
  660
  932
  1,281
  1,720
  2,258
  2,905
  3,670
  4,557
  5,571
  6,715
  7,990
  9,395
  10,928
  12,588
  14,372
  16,277
  18,301
  20,439
  22,691
  25,055
  27,529
  30,113
  32,808
  35,614
  38,534
  41,570
  44,725
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  197
  304
  455
  660
  932
  1,281
  1,720
  2,258
  2,905
  3,670
  4,557
  5,571
  6,715
  7,990
  9,395
  10,928
  12,588
  14,372
  16,277
  18,301
  20,439
  22,691
  25,055
  27,529
  30,113
  32,808
  35,614
  38,534
  41,570
  44,725
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.838
  0.836
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
  0.835
Average production assets, $m
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  83
  112
  147
  189
  239
  297
  363
  437
  520
  612
  712
  820
  936
  1,060
  1,192
  1,331
  1,478
  1,632
  1,793
  1,961
  2,137
  2,320
  2,510
  2,707
  2,913
Working capital, $m
  -12
  -18
  -27
  -40
  -56
  -77
  -103
  -136
  -175
  -221
  -274
  -335
  -404
  -480
  -565
  -657
  -757
  -864
  -979
  -1,100
  -1,229
  -1,364
  -1,506
  -1,655
  -1,810
  -1,972
  -2,141
  -2,317
  -2,499
  -2,689
Total debt, $m
  15
  37
  67
  108
  163
  234
  322
  431
  562
  716
  896
  1,100
  1,332
  1,589
  1,873
  2,183
  2,518
  2,878
  3,263
  3,672
  4,104
  4,559
  5,036
  5,536
  6,058
  6,602
  7,169
  7,759
  8,372
  9,010
Total liabilities, $m
  40
  61
  92
  133
  188
  259
  347
  456
  587
  741
  920
  1,125
  1,356
  1,614
  1,898
  2,207
  2,543
  2,903
  3,288
  3,697
  4,129
  4,584
  5,061
  5,561
  6,083
  6,627
  7,194
  7,784
  8,397
  9,034
Total equity, $m
  157
  243
  363
  527
  744
  1,022
  1,372
  1,802
  2,318
  2,928
  3,636
  4,446
  5,359
  6,376
  7,497
  8,721
  10,045
  11,469
  12,989
  14,604
  16,311
  18,108
  19,994
  21,968
  24,030
  26,181
  28,420
  30,750
  33,173
  35,691
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  197
  304
  455
  660
  932
  1,281
  1,719
  2,258
  2,905
  3,669
  4,556
  5,571
  6,715
  7,990
  9,395
  10,928
  12,588
  14,372
  16,277
  18,301
  20,440
  22,692
  25,055
  27,529
  30,113
  32,808
  35,614
  38,534
  41,570
  44,725
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.090
  0.150
  0.180
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798
  0.798

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  42
  64
  96
  138
  195
  267
  358
  469
  603
  761
  944
  1,153
  1,389
  1,652
  1,942
  2,258
  2,600
  2,967
  3,359
  3,776
  4,216
  4,679
  5,166
  5,675
  6,206
  6,761
  7,338
  7,938
  8,563
  9,212
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  6
  9
  12
  17
  22
  29
  38
  48
  59
  73
  87
  104
  122
  142
  164
  187
  212
  238
  266
  296
  326
  359
  392
  427
  464
  502
  541
  583
Funds from operations, $m
  45
  68
  102
  147
  207
  284
  380
  498
  641
  809
  1,003
  1,226
  1,477
  1,756
  2,064
  2,400
  2,764
  3,154
  3,571
  4,014
  4,482
  4,975
  5,492
  6,033
  6,598
  7,188
  7,802
  8,440
  9,104
  9,794
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
Cash from operations, $m
  49
  75
  111
  159
  223
  305
  406
  531
  680
  854
  1,057
  1,287
  1,546
  1,833
  2,148
  2,492
  2,863
  3,261
  3,686
  4,136
  4,611
  5,110
  5,634
  6,182
  6,754
  7,350
  7,970
  8,616
  9,287
  9,984
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -29
  -38
  -48
  -59
  -73
  -87
  -104
  -122
  -142
  -164
  -187
  -212
  -238
  -266
  -296
  -326
  -359
  -392
  -427
  -464
  -502
  -541
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -19
  -27
  -35
  -46
  -57
  -71
  -88
  -106
  -125
  -148
  -170
  -195
  -222
  -250
  -280
  -311
  -344
  -377
  -413
  -450
  -487
  -527
  -568
  -610
  -654
  -700
  -747
Free cash flow, $m
  43
  65
  97
  140
  197
  270
  361
  473
  608
  767
  951
  1,161
  1,398
  1,662
  1,953
  2,270
  2,613
  2,981
  3,374
  3,792
  4,233
  4,697
  5,185
  5,694
  6,227
  6,782
  7,360
  7,962
  8,587
  9,237
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  22
  30
  41
  55
  71
  89
  109
  131
  154
  179
  205
  231
  257
  284
  310
  335
  360
  385
  409
  432
  455
  477
  500
  522
  544
  567
  590
  613
  637
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  17
  21
  25
  26
  22
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  32
  43
  55
  67
  77
  83
  89
  109
  131
  154
  179
  205
  231
  257
  284
  310
  335
  360
  385
  409
  432
  455
  477
  500
  522
  544
  567
  590
  613
  637
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  75
  108
  152
  207
  274
  352
  450
  582
  739
  921
  1,130
  1,366
  1,630
  1,920
  2,237
  2,580
  2,948
  3,342
  3,759
  4,201
  4,665
  5,152
  5,662
  6,194
  6,749
  7,326
  7,927
  8,552
  9,200
  9,874
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -59
  -86
  -120
  -164
  -217
  -279
  -350
  -430
  -517
  -610
  -708
  -809
  -913
  -1,017
  -1,121
  -1,224
  -1,325
  -1,424
  -1,520
  -1,615
  -1,707
  -1,797
  -1,886
  -1,974
  -2,062
  -2,150
  -2,239
  -2,330
  -2,423
  -2,518
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  203
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  219
  23
  32
  43
  57
  73
  100
  152
  222
  311
  422
  557
  717
  903
  1,116
  1,356
  1,623
  1,918
  2,239
  2,586
  2,958
  3,355
  3,776
  4,220
  4,687
  5,176
  5,688
  6,222
  6,778
  7,356
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  210
  21
  28
  35
  44
  53
  67
  95
  128
  163
  201
  238
  272
  303
  328
  345
  353
  353
  345
  329
  306
  278
  247
  215
  182
  151
  122
  96
  74
  55
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.1
  94.9
  93.3
  92.2
  91.5
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3
  91.3

Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a research and development-focused biotechnology company. The Company uses chemistry-driven approach and drug discovery solutions to create small molecule drugs for the treatment of viral infections and liver diseases. Its research and development programs are focused on three disease targets: non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)/ primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV). It has discovered novel protease inhibitors that are members of the direct-acting-antiviral (DAA) inhibitor classes designed for use against the hepatitis C virus (HCV). These protease inhibitors, developed through its collaboration with AbbVie Inc. (AbbVie), include paritaprevir and glecaprevir (ABT-493). Its product candidates also include EDP-305, which is a farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonist product candidate for NASH and PBC, and EDP-938, which is a clinical candidate for RSV.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Enanta Pharmaceuticals (ENTA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 96.6
Price to Sales 16.9
Price to Book 5.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.3%
Total Debt to Equity 0.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 28.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.7%
Operating Margin 24.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.1%
Net Profit Margin 17.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

ENTA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENTA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $102.814 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Enanta Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Enanta Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENTA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ENTA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Enanta Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Enanta Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENTA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENTA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Enanta Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Enanta Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENTA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENTA are equal to 7.8%.

Life of production assets of 3.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Enanta Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENTA is equal to -7.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $301.676 million for Enanta Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.268 million for Enanta Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Enanta Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Enanta Stock Is Still a Strong Buy With Huge Upside   [Aug-13-18 06:00AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 2 Stable and 2 Speculative Biotech Stocks to Buy   [Jun-15-18 02:39PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Enanta Pharmaceuticals: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 04:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ This Small Biotech Is Building on a Surprising Success   [Apr-24-18 09:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Enanta Pharmaceuticals posts 1Q profit   [Feb-07-18 05:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] AbbVie Gives More Juice to Drug Rally   [Jan-29-18 12:16AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] AbbVie Gives More Juice to Drug Rally   [Jan-27-18 10:00AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Enanta Pharmaceuticals posts 4Q profit   [Nov-20-17 04:25PM  Associated Press]

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