Intrinsic value of Enova International - ENVA

Previous Close

$37.25

  Intrinsic Value

$44.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+19%

Previous close

$37.25

 
Intrinsic value

$44.29

 
Up/down potential

+19%

 
Rating

hold

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ENVA.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ENVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  955
  1,074
  1,199
  1,330
  1,468
  1,613
  1,764
  1,921
  2,085
  2,256
  2,433
  2,617
  2,809
  3,007
  3,214
  3,429
  3,653
  3,885
  4,127
  4,380
  4,642
  4,916
  5,201
  5,499
  5,810
  6,135
  6,474
  6,829
  7,200
  7,587
Variable operating expenses, $m
  796
  891
  992
  1,098
  1,209
  1,325
  1,447
  1,573
  1,705
  1,843
  1,958
  2,106
  2,261
  2,421
  2,587
  2,760
  2,940
  3,127
  3,322
  3,525
  3,736
  3,957
  4,187
  4,426
  4,677
  4,938
  5,211
  5,496
  5,795
  6,107
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  796
  891
  992
  1,098
  1,209
  1,325
  1,447
  1,573
  1,705
  1,843
  1,958
  2,106
  2,261
  2,421
  2,587
  2,760
  2,940
  3,127
  3,322
  3,525
  3,736
  3,957
  4,187
  4,426
  4,677
  4,938
  5,211
  5,496
  5,795
  6,107
Operating income, $m
  159
  182
  207
  232
  259
  288
  317
  348
  380
  413
  475
  511
  548
  587
  627
  669
  713
  758
  805
  854
  906
  959
  1,015
  1,073
  1,134
  1,197
  1,263
  1,332
  1,405
  1,480
EBITDA, $m
  223
  250
  279
  310
  342
  376
  411
  448
  486
  526
  567
  610
  654
  701
  749
  799
  851
  905
  962
  1,020
  1,082
  1,145
  1,212
  1,281
  1,354
  1,430
  1,509
  1,591
  1,678
  1,768
Interest expense (income), $m
  60
  81
  77
  88
  99
  111
  124
  137
  151
  165
  180
  195
  211
  228
  245
  263
  282
  302
  322
  343
  365
  388
  412
  436
  462
  489
  517
  547
  578
  610
  643
Earnings before tax, $m
  78
  105
  119
  133
  148
  164
  180
  197
  215
  233
  279
  299
  320
  341
  364
  387
  411
  436
  462
  490
  518
  548
  579
  611
  644
  680
  716
  755
  795
  837
Tax expense, $m
  21
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  63
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  193
  204
  215
  226
Net income, $m
  57
  77
  87
  97
  108
  119
  131
  144
  157
  170
  204
  219
  234
  249
  266
  282
  300
  318
  338
  357
  378
  400
  422
  446
  470
  496
  523
  551
  580
  611

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  934
  1,050
  1,172
  1,300
  1,435
  1,577
  1,724
  1,878
  2,038
  2,205
  2,378
  2,558
  2,745
  2,940
  3,142
  3,352
  3,571
  3,798
  4,035
  4,281
  4,538
  4,805
  5,085
  5,376
  5,680
  5,997
  6,329
  6,675
  7,038
  7,417
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  934
  1,050
  1,172
  1,300
  1,435
  1,577
  1,724
  1,878
  2,038
  2,205
  2,378
  2,558
  2,745
  2,940
  3,142
  3,352
  3,571
  3,798
  4,035
  4,281
  4,538
  4,805
  5,085
  5,376
  5,680
  5,997
  6,329
  6,675
  7,038
  7,417
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.022
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
Average production assets, $m
  362
  407
  454
  504
  557
  611
  668
  728
  790
  855
  922
  992
  1,064
  1,140
  1,218
  1,300
  1,384
  1,473
  1,564
  1,660
  1,759
  1,863
  1,971
  2,084
  2,202
  2,325
  2,454
  2,588
  2,729
  2,876
Working capital, $m
  -87
  -98
  -109
  -121
  -134
  -147
  -161
  -175
  -190
  -205
  -221
  -238
  -256
  -274
  -292
  -312
  -332
  -354
  -376
  -399
  -422
  -447
  -473
  -500
  -529
  -558
  -589
  -621
  -655
  -690
Total debt, $m
  752
  856
  966
  1,081
  1,203
  1,330
  1,463
  1,601
  1,745
  1,895
  2,051
  2,213
  2,382
  2,557
  2,739
  2,928
  3,125
  3,329
  3,542
  3,764
  3,995
  4,236
  4,487
  4,749
  5,023
  5,308
  5,607
  5,919
  6,245
  6,586
Total liabilities, $m
  841
  945
  1,055
  1,170
  1,292
  1,419
  1,552
  1,690
  1,834
  1,984
  2,140
  2,302
  2,471
  2,646
  2,828
  3,017
  3,214
  3,418
  3,631
  3,853
  4,084
  4,325
  4,576
  4,838
  5,112
  5,397
  5,696
  6,008
  6,334
  6,675
Total equity, $m
  93
  105
  117
  130
  144
  158
  172
  188
  204
  220
  238
  256
  275
  294
  314
  335
  357
  380
  403
  428
  454
  481
  508
  538
  568
  600
  633
  668
  704
  742
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  934
  1,050
  1,172
  1,300
  1,436
  1,577
  1,724
  1,878
  2,038
  2,204
  2,378
  2,558
  2,746
  2,940
  3,142
  3,352
  3,571
  3,798
  4,034
  4,281
  4,538
  4,806
  5,084
  5,376
  5,680
  5,997
  6,329
  6,676
  7,038
  7,417
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.050
  8.150
  8.240
  8.320
  8.380
  8.440
  8.480
  8.530
  8.560
  8.600
  8.630
  8.650
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.730
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.830
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.870
  8.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  57
  77
  87
  97
  108
  119
  131
  144
  157
  170
  204
  219
  234
  249
  266
  282
  300
  318
  338
  357
  378
  400
  422
  446
  470
  496
  523
  551
  580
  611
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  233
  245
  259
  273
  288
Funds from operations, $m
  120
  144
  159
  175
  191
  208
  225
  244
  263
  283
  296
  318
  340
  363
  387
  412
  439
  466
  494
  523
  554
  586
  619
  654
  691
  729
  768
  810
  853
  899
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
Cash from operations, $m
  130
  155
  171
  187
  203
  221
  239
  258
  278
  298
  312
  334
  357
  381
  406
  432
  459
  487
  516
  546
  578
  611
  645
  681
  719
  758
  799
  842
  887
  934
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -220
  -233
  -245
  -259
  -273
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -141
  -147
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -111
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -144
  -152
  -162
  -172
  -181
  -192
  -203
  -215
  -226
  -239
  -252
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -310
  -326
  -343
  -362
  -379
  -400
  -420
Free cash flow, $m
  56
  74
  82
  91
  101
  110
  121
  132
  143
  155
  160
  172
  186
  199
  214
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  312
  331
  351
  371
  393
  415
  438
  462
  488
  514
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -37
  104
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  298
  312
  326
  341
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  52
  104
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  298
  312
  326
  341
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  108
  178
  192
  207
  222
  238
  254
  270
  287
  305
  316
  335
  354
  375
  396
  418
  441
  465
  490
  516
  544
  572
  602
  633
  666
  701
  737
  774
  814
  855
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -146
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  335
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
Cash available for distribution, $m
  297
  167
  180
  194
  209
  223
  239
  255
  271
  288
  298
  317
  335
  355
  376
  397
  419
  442
  466
  492
  518
  545
  574
  604
  636
  669
  703
  740
  778
  817
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  285
  153
  157
  160
  162
  162
  161
  159
  156
  151
  142
  135
  128
  119
  110
  101
  91
  81
  72
  62
  54
  45
  38
  31
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Enova International, Inc. is a technology and analytics company. The Company provides online financial services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company offered or arranged loans to consumers in 33 states in the United States and in the United Kingdom and Brazil. As of December 31, 2016, it also offered financing to small businesses in all 50 states and Washington D.C. in the United States. The Company provides online financial services to non-prime credit consumers and small businesses in the United States, United Kingdom, and Brazil. Its customers include small businesses, which have bank accounts but use alternative financial services because of their limited access to more traditional credit from banks, credit card companies and other lenders. The Company's financing products include short-term loans, line of credit accounts, installment loans and receivables purchase agreements (RPAs).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Enova International (ENVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.4
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 5.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -56.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 268.6%
Total Debt to Equity 269.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Return On Total Capital 4.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 15.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.3%
EBITDA Margin 17.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Operating Margin 16.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

ENVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ENVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $844 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Enova International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Enova International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ENVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ENVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Enova International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Enova International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ENVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ENVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.3% for Enova International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Enova International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ENVA stock is equal to 1.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ENVA are equal to 37.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Enova International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ENVA is equal to -9.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $282 million for Enova International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34 million for Enova International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Enova International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Enova International: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 07:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Enova Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova To Announce First Quarter 2018 Results   [Apr-12-18 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ The Market Screams Risk Off! Are You Prepared?   [Mar-08-18 10:29AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 6 Stocks with Recent Price Strength to Boost Your Portfolio   [Feb-08-18 01:00PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Enova International posts 4Q profit   [Feb-01-18 05:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Stocks to Buy on the Dip   [Jan-30-18 04:14PM  Zacks]
▶ Enova International reports 3Q loss   [Oct-26-17 07:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Enova To Announce Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-12-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova Announces $25 Million Share Repurchase Program   [Sep-15-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova International posts 2Q profit   [Jul-28-17 12:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Enova Reports Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Jul-27-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova To Announce Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-13-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova To Present at June Conferences   [May-24-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Enova International posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 05:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Enova To Announce First Quarter 2017 Results   [Apr-13-17 06:49PM  PR Newswire]
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