Intrinsic value of Edgewell Personal Care - EPC

Previous Close

$41.47

  Intrinsic Value

$66.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+60%

Previous close

$41.47

 
Intrinsic value

$66.16

 
Up/down potential

+60%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EPC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,344
  2,398
  2,460
  2,529
  2,606
  2,690
  2,782
  2,881
  2,988
  3,102
  3,225
  3,356
  3,495
  3,643
  3,800
  3,967
  4,143
  4,330
  4,527
  4,735
  4,954
  5,185
  5,429
  5,686
  5,957
  6,242
  6,542
  6,858
  7,190
  7,539
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,049
  2,090
  2,137
  2,190
  2,249
  2,313
  2,384
  2,460
  2,542
  2,629
  2,472
  2,572
  2,679
  2,792
  2,913
  3,040
  3,176
  3,318
  3,469
  3,629
  3,797
  3,974
  4,161
  4,358
  4,566
  4,784
  5,014
  5,256
  5,511
  5,779
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,049
  2,090
  2,137
  2,190
  2,249
  2,313
  2,384
  2,460
  2,542
  2,629
  2,472
  2,572
  2,679
  2,792
  2,913
  3,040
  3,176
  3,318
  3,469
  3,629
  3,797
  3,974
  4,161
  4,358
  4,566
  4,784
  5,014
  5,256
  5,511
  5,779
Operating income, $m
  296
  308
  323
  339
  357
  376
  398
  421
  446
  473
  753
  784
  816
  851
  888
  926
  968
  1,011
  1,057
  1,106
  1,157
  1,211
  1,268
  1,328
  1,391
  1,458
  1,528
  1,602
  1,679
  1,761
EBITDA, $m
  609
  623
  639
  657
  677
  698
  722
  748
  776
  806
  837
  871
  908
  946
  987
  1,030
  1,076
  1,124
  1,175
  1,229
  1,286
  1,347
  1,410
  1,477
  1,547
  1,621
  1,699
  1,781
  1,867
  1,958
Interest expense (income), $m
  66
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  137
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  278
  293
  310
  327
  345
  364
Earnings before tax, $m
  212
  222
  234
  246
  260
  275
  292
  310
  329
  350
  624
  647
  672
  699
  727
  757
  788
  822
  857
  894
  934
  975
  1,019
  1,065
  1,113
  1,164
  1,218
  1,275
  1,334
  1,396
Tax expense, $m
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
Net income, $m
  155
  162
  171
  180
  190
  201
  213
  226
  240
  255
  455
  472
  491
  510
  531
  552
  576
  600
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
  777
  813
  850
  889
  930
  974
  1,019

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,270
  4,368
  4,481
  4,607
  4,746
  4,900
  5,067
  5,247
  5,442
  5,651
  5,874
  6,112
  6,366
  6,636
  6,922
  7,226
  7,547
  7,886
  8,245
  8,624
  9,024
  9,445
  9,890
  10,358
  10,851
  11,370
  11,917
  12,492
  13,097
  13,733
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,270
  4,368
  4,481
  4,607
  4,746
  4,900
  5,067
  5,247
  5,442
  5,651
  5,874
  6,112
  6,366
  6,636
  6,922
  7,226
  7,547
  7,886
  8,245
  8,624
  9,024
  9,445
  9,890
  10,358
  10,851
  11,370
  11,917
  12,492
  13,097
  13,733
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
Average production assets, $m
  1,838
  1,880
  1,929
  1,983
  2,043
  2,109
  2,181
  2,258
  2,342
  2,432
  2,528
  2,631
  2,740
  2,856
  2,979
  3,110
  3,248
  3,394
  3,549
  3,712
  3,884
  4,065
  4,257
  4,458
  4,670
  4,894
  5,129
  5,377
  5,637
  5,911
Working capital, $m
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  210
  217
  225
  233
  242
  252
  262
  273
  284
  296
  309
  323
  338
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  444
  465
  487
  510
  535
  561
  588
Total debt, $m
  1,592
  1,649
  1,714
  1,788
  1,870
  1,959
  2,057
  2,162
  2,276
  2,398
  2,528
  2,667
  2,816
  2,973
  3,140
  3,317
  3,505
  3,703
  3,913
  4,134
  4,368
  4,614
  4,873
  5,147
  5,435
  5,738
  6,057
  6,393
  6,746
  7,118
Total liabilities, $m
  2,494
  2,551
  2,617
  2,690
  2,772
  2,861
  2,959
  3,064
  3,178
  3,300
  3,430
  3,570
  3,718
  3,875
  4,043
  4,220
  4,407
  4,606
  4,815
  5,036
  5,270
  5,516
  5,776
  6,049
  6,337
  6,640
  6,959
  7,295
  7,648
  8,020
Total equity, $m
  1,776
  1,817
  1,864
  1,916
  1,975
  2,038
  2,108
  2,183
  2,264
  2,351
  2,444
  2,543
  2,648
  2,761
  2,880
  3,006
  3,139
  3,281
  3,430
  3,588
  3,754
  3,929
  4,114
  4,309
  4,514
  4,730
  4,957
  5,197
  5,448
  5,713
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,270
  4,368
  4,481
  4,606
  4,747
  4,899
  5,067
  5,247
  5,442
  5,651
  5,874
  6,113
  6,366
  6,636
  6,923
  7,226
  7,546
  7,887
  8,245
  8,624
  9,024
  9,445
  9,890
  10,358
  10,851
  11,370
  11,916
  12,492
  13,096
  13,733
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.950
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416
  0.416

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  155
  162
  171
  180
  190
  201
  213
  226
  240
  255
  455
  472
  491
  510
  531
  552
  576
  600
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
  777
  813
  850
  889
  930
  974
  1,019
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  313
  314
  316
  318
  320
  322
  324
  327
  330
  333
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
Funds from operations, $m
  468
  477
  487
  498
  510
  523
  538
  553
  570
  588
  540
  560
  582
  605
  630
  656
  684
  713
  744
  777
  811
  847
  886
  926
  968
  1,013
  1,060
  1,110
  1,162
  1,216
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Cash from operations, $m
  464
  473
  482
  492
  504
  517
  530
  546
  562
  579
  530
  550
  571
  594
  618
  643
  670
  699
  729
  760
  794
  829
  867
  906
  947
  991
  1,037
  1,085
  1,136
  1,189
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -248
  -260
  -274
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -97
  -103
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -310
  -327
  -344
  -361
  -379
  -398
  -419
  -439
  -462
Free cash flow, $m
  367
  369
  371
  374
  378
  383
  388
  395
  403
  411
  353
  363
  374
  386
  399
  413
  428
  444
  461
  479
  498
  518
  540
  562
  586
  612
  638
  667
  696
  727
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  47
  57
  66
  74
  82
  89
  97
  105
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  158
  167
  177
  188
  198
  210
  221
  233
  246
  260
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  353
  372
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  57
  66
  74
  82
  89
  97
  105
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  158
  167
  177
  188
  198
  210
  221
  233
  246
  260
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  353
  372
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  414
  426
  436
  447
  459
  472
  486
  501
  516
  533
  483
  502
  522
  544
  567
  590
  616
  642
  671
  700
  732
  765
  799
  836
  874
  915
  958
  1,002
  1,049
  1,099
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -265
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  379
  386
  390
  395
  401
  408
  416
  425
  435
  446
  390
  403
  417
  432
  447
  464
  482
  501
  521
  543
  565
  589
  614
  641
  669
  699
  730
  763
  798
  834
Discount rate, %
  5.80
  6.09
  6.39
  6.71
  7.05
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.48
  12.06
  12.66
  13.29
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.81
  18.71
  19.64
  20.62
  21.65
  22.74
  23.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  358
  343
  324
  305
  285
  266
  247
  227
  208
  189
  145
  130
  115
  101
  88
  75
  64
  53
  44
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Edgewell Personal Care Company is a manufacturer and marketer of personal care products in the wet shave, sun and skin care, feminine care and infant care categories. As of September 30, 2016, the Company had a portfolio of over 25 brands. It manages its business in four segments: Wet Shave, Sun and Skin Care, Feminine Care and All Other. Its Wet shave products are sold under the Schick, Wilkinson Sword, Edge, Skintimate, Shave Guard and Personna brand names. Its Sun and Skin Care products are sold under the Banana Boat, Hawaiian Tropic, Wet Ones and Playtex brand names and offers Wet Ones, portable hand wipes category, and Playtex household gloves, the branded household glove in the United States. Its Feminine Care segment markets its products under the Playtex, Stayfree, Carefree and o.b. brands and markets pads and liners. Its All Other segment includes infant care, pet care and miscellaneous other products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Edgewell Personal Care (EPC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 387.2
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 26
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 87.6%
Total Debt to Equity 88.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital 0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity 0.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.1%
EBITDA Margin 4.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Operating Margin -2.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 111.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

EPC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EPC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2298.4 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Edgewell Personal Care. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Edgewell Personal Care. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EPC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.8%, whose default value for EPC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Edgewell Personal Care, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Edgewell Personal Care.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EPC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EPC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Edgewell Personal Care.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Edgewell Personal Care. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EPC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EPC are equal to 78.4%.

Life of production assets of 33.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Edgewell Personal Care operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EPC is equal to 7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1741.7 million for Edgewell Personal Care - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.018 million for Edgewell Personal Care is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Edgewell Personal Care at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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