Intrinsic value of EPR Properties - EPR

Previous Close

$66.00

  Intrinsic Value

$33.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-50%

Previous close

$66.00

 
Intrinsic value

$33.24

 
Up/down potential

-50%

 
Rating

sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EPR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EPR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.80
  15.62
  14.56
  13.60
  12.74
  11.97
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
Revenue, $m
  673
  778
  891
  1,012
  1,141
  1,278
  1,422
  1,573
  1,732
  1,898
  2,071
  2,251
  2,438
  2,633
  2,836
  3,047
  3,266
  3,493
  3,730
  3,976
  4,232
  4,498
  4,775
  5,064
  5,365
  5,678
  6,005
  6,347
  6,703
  7,076
Variable operating expenses, $m
  237
  271
  308
  348
  390
  435
  482
  531
  583
  637
  677
  736
  797
  861
  927
  996
  1,068
  1,142
  1,220
  1,300
  1,384
  1,471
  1,561
  1,656
  1,754
  1,857
  1,964
  2,075
  2,192
  2,314
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  237
  271
  308
  348
  390
  435
  482
  531
  583
  637
  677
  736
  797
  861
  927
  996
  1,068
  1,142
  1,220
  1,300
  1,384
  1,471
  1,561
  1,656
  1,754
  1,857
  1,964
  2,075
  2,192
  2,314
Operating income, $m
  436
  507
  583
  665
  751
  843
  940
  1,042
  1,149
  1,260
  1,393
  1,515
  1,641
  1,772
  1,909
  2,050
  2,198
  2,351
  2,510
  2,676
  2,848
  3,027
  3,214
  3,408
  3,610
  3,821
  4,042
  4,271
  4,511
  4,762
EBITDA, $m
  1,117
  1,291
  1,479
  1,680
  1,895
  2,121
  2,360
  2,612
  2,875
  3,150
  3,437
  3,736
  4,048
  4,371
  4,708
  5,058
  5,421
  5,799
  6,192
  6,600
  7,024
  7,466
  7,926
  8,406
  8,905
  9,426
  9,969
  10,536
  11,128
  11,746
Interest expense (income), $m
  96
  155
  155
  155
  154
  154
  153
  153
  153
  152
  152
  151
  150
  150
  149
  149
  148
  147
  147
  146
  145
  144
  143
  142
  142
  141
  140
  139
  138
  136
  135
Earnings before tax, $m
  281
  352
  428
  510
  597
  690
  787
  890
  997
  1,109
  1,242
  1,364
  1,491
  1,623
  1,760
  1,903
  2,051
  2,204
  2,364
  2,531
  2,704
  2,884
  3,071
  3,266
  3,470
  3,682
  3,903
  4,134
  4,375
  4,627
Tax expense, $m
  76
  95
  116
  138
  161
  186
  213
  240
  269
  299
  335
  368
  403
  438
  475
  514
  554
  595
  638
  683
  730
  779
  829
  882
  937
  994
  1,054
  1,116
  1,181
  1,249
Net income, $m
  205
  257
  313
  373
  436
  504
  575
  649
  728
  809
  907
  996
  1,089
  1,185
  1,285
  1,389
  1,497
  1,609
  1,726
  1,847
  1,974
  2,105
  2,242
  2,384
  2,533
  2,688
  2,849
  3,018
  3,194
  3,378

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  -518
  -599
  -686
  -779
  -879
  -984
  -1,095
  -1,211
  -1,333
  -1,461
  -1,594
  -1,733
  -1,877
  -2,027
  -2,183
  -2,345
  -2,514
  -2,689
  -2,871
  -3,061
  -3,258
  -3,463
  -3,676
  -3,898
  -4,130
  -4,371
  -4,623
  -4,886
  -5,160
  -5,447
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  -518
  -599
  -686
  -779
  -879
  -984
  -1,095
  -1,211
  -1,333
  -1,461
  -1,594
  -1,733
  -1,877
  -2,027
  -2,183
  -2,345
  -2,514
  -2,689
  -2,871
  -3,061
  -3,258
  -3,463
  -3,676
  -3,898
  -4,130
  -4,371
  -4,623
  -4,886
  -5,160
  -5,447
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.298
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
  -1.299
Average production assets, $m
  6,640
  7,677
  8,795
  9,991
  11,265
  12,613
  14,034
  15,528
  17,093
  18,729
  20,436
  22,215
  24,066
  25,991
  27,992
  30,072
  32,233
  34,479
  36,814
  39,241
  41,766
  44,394
  47,129
  49,979
  52,948
  56,044
  59,273
  62,644
  66,163
  69,839
Working capital, $m
  -3,813
  -4,408
  -5,050
  -5,737
  -6,468
  -7,242
  -8,058
  -8,916
  -9,814
  -10,754
  -11,734
  -12,755
  -13,818
  -14,923
  -16,072
  -17,266
  -18,507
  -19,797
  -21,137
  -22,531
  -23,981
  -25,489
  -27,060
  -28,696
  -30,401
  -32,178
  -34,033
  -35,968
  -37,988
  -40,099
Total debt, $m
  1,020
  1,017
  1,015
  1,012
  1,010
  1,007
  1,004
  1,000
  997
  993
  990
  986
  982
  977
  973
  969
  964
  959
  954
  949
  943
  937
  931
  925
  919
  912
  905
  897
  890
  882
Total liabilities, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -153
Total equity, $m
  -503
  -582
  -667
  -757
  -854
  -956
  -1,064
  -1,177
  -1,296
  -1,420
  -1,549
  -1,684
  -1,824
  -1,970
  -2,122
  -2,280
  -2,444
  -2,614
  -2,791
  -2,975
  -3,166
  -3,366
  -3,573
  -3,789
  -4,014
  -4,249
  -4,494
  -4,749
  -5,016
  -5,295
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  -518
  -599
  -686
  -779
  -879
  -984
  -1,095
  -1,211
  -1,333
  -1,461
  -1,594
  -1,733
  -1,877
  -2,027
  -2,183
  -2,346
  -2,514
  -2,689
  -2,871
  -3,061
  -3,257
  -3,463
  -3,676
  -3,898
  -4,130
  -4,371
  -4,623
  -4,886
  -5,160
  -5,448
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972
  0.972

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  205
  257
  313
  373
  436
  504
  575
  649
  728
  809
  907
  996
  1,089
  1,185
  1,285
  1,389
  1,497
  1,609
  1,726
  1,847
  1,974
  2,105
  2,242
  2,384
  2,533
  2,688
  2,849
  3,018
  3,194
  3,378
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  681
  784
  896
  1,016
  1,143
  1,278
  1,420
  1,570
  1,726
  1,890
  2,044
  2,221
  2,407
  2,599
  2,799
  3,007
  3,223
  3,448
  3,681
  3,924
  4,177
  4,439
  4,713
  4,998
  5,295
  5,604
  5,927
  6,264
  6,616
  6,984
Funds from operations, $m
  886
  1,041
  1,209
  1,388
  1,579
  1,782
  1,995
  2,219
  2,454
  2,699
  2,951
  3,217
  3,495
  3,784
  4,084
  4,396
  4,720
  5,057
  5,407
  5,772
  6,150
  6,544
  6,955
  7,382
  7,828
  8,292
  8,777
  9,282
  9,810
  10,361
Change in working capital, $m
  -548
  -596
  -642
  -687
  -731
  -774
  -816
  -858
  -899
  -939
  -980
  -1,021
  -1,063
  -1,105
  -1,149
  -1,194
  -1,241
  -1,290
  -1,340
  -1,394
  -1,450
  -1,509
  -1,571
  -1,636
  -1,705
  -1,778
  -1,854
  -1,935
  -2,021
  -2,111
Cash from operations, $m
  1,434
  1,637
  1,851
  2,075
  2,310
  2,556
  2,811
  3,077
  3,352
  3,638
  3,931
  4,239
  4,558
  4,889
  5,233
  5,590
  5,961
  6,347
  6,748
  7,165
  7,600
  8,053
  8,525
  9,018
  9,533
  10,070
  10,631
  11,217
  11,831
  12,472
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -568
  -664
  -768
  -880
  -999
  -1,126
  -1,261
  -1,403
  -1,553
  -1,709
  -1,873
  -2,044
  -2,221
  -2,407
  -2,599
  -2,799
  -3,007
  -3,223
  -3,448
  -3,681
  -3,924
  -4,177
  -4,439
  -4,713
  -4,998
  -5,295
  -5,604
  -5,927
  -6,264
  -6,616
New CAPEX, $m
  -955
  -1,037
  -1,118
  -1,196
  -1,273
  -1,348
  -1,422
  -1,494
  -1,565
  -1,636
  -1,707
  -1,779
  -1,851
  -1,925
  -2,001
  -2,080
  -2,161
  -2,246
  -2,335
  -2,427
  -2,525
  -2,628
  -2,736
  -2,849
  -2,969
  -3,096
  -3,229
  -3,370
  -3,519
  -3,676
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,523
  -1,701
  -1,886
  -2,076
  -2,272
  -2,474
  -2,683
  -2,897
  -3,118
  -3,345
  -3,580
  -3,823
  -4,072
  -4,332
  -4,600
  -4,879
  -5,168
  -5,469
  -5,783
  -6,108
  -6,449
  -6,805
  -7,175
  -7,562
  -7,967
  -8,391
  -8,833
  -9,297
  -9,783
  -10,292
Free cash flow, $m
  -90
  -64
  -35
  -1
  38
  81
  128
  179
  234
  293
  351
  416
  485
  558
  633
  711
  793
  877
  965
  1,056
  1,151
  1,249
  1,351
  1,456
  1,565
  1,679
  1,797
  1,920
  2,047
  2,180
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -72
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -235
  -245
  -256
  -267
  -279
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -74
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -222
  -231
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -275
  -287
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -164
  -145
  -122
  -94
  -61
  -24
  17
  63
  112
  165
  218
  278
  341
  407
  477
  549
  624
  702
  783
  867
  954
  1,044
  1,137
  1,234
  1,334
  1,437
  1,545
  1,657
  1,773
  1,893
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  72
  79
  85
  91
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  431
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  106
  112
  119
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
Cash available for distribution, $m
  339
  79
  85
  91
  97
  102
  125
  176
  231
  289
  347
  413
  481
  553
  628
  707
  788
  873
  960
  1,051
  1,145
  1,243
  1,345
  1,450
  1,559
  1,672
  1,790
  1,912
  2,039
  2,172
Discount rate, %
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  320
  70
  70
  70
  68
  66
  73
  93
  109
  121
  126
  130
  130
  126
  120
  111
  100
  89
  77
  65
  54
  44
  35
  27
  20
  15
  10
  7
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EPR Properties is a specialty real estate investment trust. The Company's investment portfolio includes primarily entertainment, education and recreation properties. The Company's segments include Entertainment, Education, Recreation and Other. The Entertainment segment consists of investments in megaplex theatres, entertainment retail centers, family entertainment centers and other retail parcels. The Education segment consists of investments in public charter schools, early education centers and K-12 private schools. The Recreation segment consists of investments in ski areas, waterparks, golf entertainment complexes and other recreation. The Other segment consists primarily of land under ground lease, property under development and land held for development. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's owned real estate portfolio of megaplex theatres consisted of approximately 10.6 million square feet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EPR Properties (EPR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.7
Price to Sales 8.5
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 113.7%
Total Debt to Equity 113.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 10.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 95.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 94.5%
EBITDA Margin 87.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 87.6%
Operating Margin 64.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 45.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.3%
Net Profit Margin 45.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Payout Ratio 118.2%

EPR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EPR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $576 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EPR Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of EPR Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EPR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for EPR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EPR Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EPR Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EPR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 35.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EPR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 15.2% for EPR Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EPR Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EPR stock is equal to 2.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EPR are equal to 987%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EPR Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EPR is equal to -566.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for EPR Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 71 million for EPR Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EPR Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.7 billion.

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