Intrinsic value of EQT Corporation - EQT

Previous Close

$15.81

  Intrinsic Value

$10.69

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-32%

Previous close

$15.81

 
Intrinsic value

$10.69

 
Up/down potential

-32%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EQT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
Revenue, $m
  4,891
  5,237
  5,596
  5,970
  6,358
  6,762
  7,183
  7,621
  8,078
  8,554
  9,050
  9,568
  10,108
  10,673
  11,263
  11,879
  12,524
  13,198
  13,903
  14,642
  15,415
  16,224
  17,072
  17,961
  18,892
  19,867
  20,890
  21,963
  23,087
  24,267
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,289
  4,591
  4,906
  5,233
  5,573
  5,927
  6,295
  6,679
  7,078
  7,495
  7,922
  8,375
  8,848
  9,342
  9,858
  10,398
  10,962
  11,552
  12,170
  12,816
  13,493
  14,201
  14,943
  15,721
  16,536
  17,390
  18,285
  19,224
  20,209
  21,241
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,289
  4,591
  4,906
  5,233
  5,573
  5,927
  6,295
  6,679
  7,078
  7,495
  7,922
  8,375
  8,848
  9,342
  9,858
  10,398
  10,962
  11,552
  12,170
  12,816
  13,493
  14,201
  14,943
  15,721
  16,536
  17,390
  18,285
  19,224
  20,209
  21,241
Operating income, $m
  602
  645
  690
  737
  785
  835
  888
  943
  1,000
  1,059
  1,128
  1,193
  1,260
  1,331
  1,404
  1,481
  1,562
  1,646
  1,734
  1,826
  1,922
  2,023
  2,129
  2,239
  2,356
  2,477
  2,605
  2,739
  2,879
  3,026
EBITDA, $m
  2,524
  2,702
  2,888
  3,080
  3,281
  3,490
  3,707
  3,933
  4,168
  4,414
  4,670
  4,937
  5,216
  5,507
  5,812
  6,130
  6,462
  6,810
  7,174
  7,555
  7,954
  8,372
  8,810
  9,268
  9,748
  10,252
  10,780
  11,333
  11,914
  12,522
Interest expense (income), $m
  145
  315
  353
  393
  435
  478
  523
  570
  618
  669
  722
  777
  834
  894
  956
  1,022
  1,090
  1,161
  1,236
  1,314
  1,395
  1,481
  1,570
  1,663
  1,761
  1,864
  1,972
  2,085
  2,203
  2,327
  2,457
Earnings before tax, $m
  287
  292
  297
  302
  307
  313
  318
  324
  331
  337
  352
  359
  366
  374
  383
  391
  400
  410
  420
  431
  442
  453
  465
  478
  491
  505
  520
  536
  552
  569
Tax expense, $m
  78
  79
  80
  82
  83
  84
  86
  88
  89
  91
  95
  97
  99
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  113
  116
  119
  122
  126
  129
  133
  136
  140
  145
  149
  154
Net income, $m
  210
  213
  217
  220
  224
  228
  232
  237
  241
  246
  257
  262
  268
  273
  279
  286
  292
  299
  307
  314
  322
  331
  340
  349
  359
  369
  380
  391
  403
  415

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  22,231
  23,802
  25,436
  27,134
  28,900
  30,738
  32,650
  34,642
  36,717
  38,880
  41,136
  43,490
  45,947
  48,513
  51,194
  53,996
  56,926
  59,990
  63,197
  66,553
  70,067
  73,747
  77,601
  81,639
  85,871
  90,306
  94,956
  99,830
  104,942
  110,303
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  22,231
  23,802
  25,436
  27,134
  28,900
  30,738
  32,650
  34,642
  36,717
  38,880
  41,136
  43,490
  45,947
  48,513
  51,194
  53,996
  56,926
  59,990
  63,197
  66,553
  70,067
  73,747
  77,601
  81,639
  85,871
  90,306
  94,956
  99,830
  104,942
  110,303
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
Average production assets, $m
  20,096
  21,517
  22,994
  24,529
  26,125
  27,786
  29,515
  31,316
  33,192
  35,147
  37,186
  39,314
  41,535
  43,855
  46,278
  48,811
  51,460
  54,230
  57,129
  60,163
  63,339
  66,665
  70,150
  73,800
  77,626
  81,635
  85,838
  90,245
  94,866
  99,712
Working capital, $m
  181
  194
  207
  221
  235
  250
  266
  282
  299
  316
  335
  354
  374
  395
  417
  440
  463
  488
  514
  542
  570
  600
  632
  665
  699
  735
  773
  813
  854
  898
Total debt, $m
  6,541
  7,281
  8,051
  8,850
  9,682
  10,548
  11,449
  12,387
  13,364
  14,383
  15,445
  16,554
  17,711
  18,920
  20,183
  21,502
  22,882
  24,326
  25,836
  27,417
  29,072
  30,805
  32,620
  34,522
  36,515
  38,605
  40,794
  43,090
  45,498
  48,023
Total liabilities, $m
  10,471
  11,211
  11,980
  12,780
  13,612
  14,478
  15,378
  16,316
  17,294
  18,313
  19,375
  20,484
  21,641
  22,850
  24,112
  25,432
  26,812
  28,255
  29,766
  31,347
  33,001
  34,735
  36,550
  38,452
  40,445
  42,534
  44,724
  47,020
  49,428
  51,953
Total equity, $m
  11,760
  12,591
  13,456
  14,354
  15,288
  16,260
  17,272
  18,326
  19,423
  20,568
  21,761
  23,006
  24,306
  25,663
  27,081
  28,564
  30,114
  31,735
  33,431
  35,207
  37,065
  39,012
  41,051
  43,187
  45,426
  47,772
  50,232
  52,810
  55,514
  58,350
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  22,231
  23,802
  25,436
  27,134
  28,900
  30,738
  32,650
  34,642
  36,717
  38,881
  41,136
  43,490
  45,947
  48,513
  51,193
  53,996
  56,926
  59,990
  63,197
  66,554
  70,066
  73,747
  77,601
  81,639
  85,871
  90,306
  94,956
  99,830
  104,942
  110,303
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  210
  213
  217
  220
  224
  228
  232
  237
  241
  246
  257
  262
  268
  273
  279
  286
  292
  299
  307
  314
  322
  331
  340
  349
  359
  369
  380
  391
  403
  415
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,922
  2,057
  2,198
  2,344
  2,496
  2,654
  2,819
  2,990
  3,169
  3,355
  3,542
  3,744
  3,956
  4,177
  4,407
  4,649
  4,901
  5,165
  5,441
  5,730
  6,032
  6,349
  6,681
  7,029
  7,393
  7,775
  8,175
  8,595
  9,035
  9,496
Funds from operations, $m
  2,131
  2,270
  2,414
  2,564
  2,720
  2,882
  3,051
  3,227
  3,410
  3,601
  3,798
  4,006
  4,223
  4,450
  4,687
  4,934
  5,193
  5,464
  5,747
  6,044
  6,355
  6,680
  7,021
  7,378
  7,752
  8,144
  8,555
  8,986
  9,438
  9,912
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Cash from operations, $m
  2,119
  2,257
  2,401
  2,550
  2,706
  2,867
  3,036
  3,211
  3,393
  3,584
  3,780
  3,987
  4,203
  4,429
  4,665
  4,912
  5,169
  5,439
  5,721
  6,017
  6,326
  6,650
  6,989
  7,345
  7,717
  8,108
  8,517
  8,946
  9,396
  9,868
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1,784
  -1,914
  -2,049
  -2,190
  -2,336
  -2,488
  -2,646
  -2,811
  -2,982
  -3,161
  -3,347
  -3,542
  -3,744
  -3,956
  -4,177
  -4,407
  -4,649
  -4,901
  -5,165
  -5,441
  -5,730
  -6,032
  -6,349
  -6,681
  -7,029
  -7,393
  -7,775
  -8,175
  -8,595
  -9,035
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,368
  -1,421
  -1,477
  -1,535
  -1,597
  -1,661
  -1,729
  -1,800
  -1,876
  -1,955
  -2,039
  -2,128
  -2,221
  -2,320
  -2,423
  -2,533
  -2,649
  -2,770
  -2,899
  -3,034
  -3,176
  -3,326
  -3,484
  -3,650
  -3,825
  -4,009
  -4,203
  -4,407
  -4,621
  -4,846
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3,152
  -3,335
  -3,526
  -3,725
  -3,933
  -4,149
  -4,375
  -4,611
  -4,858
  -5,116
  -5,386
  -5,670
  -5,965
  -6,276
  -6,600
  -6,940
  -7,298
  -7,671
  -8,064
  -8,475
  -8,906
  -9,358
  -9,833
  -10,331
  -10,854
  -11,402
  -11,978
  -12,582
  -13,216
  -13,881
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,033
  -1,077
  -1,125
  -1,175
  -1,227
  -1,282
  -1,340
  -1,401
  -1,465
  -1,533
  -1,607
  -1,682
  -1,762
  -1,846
  -1,935
  -2,029
  -2,128
  -2,232
  -2,342
  -2,458
  -2,580
  -2,709
  -2,844
  -2,987
  -3,137
  -3,295
  -3,461
  -3,636
  -3,820
  -4,013
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  708
  740
  769
  800
  832
  865
  901
  938
  977
  1,019
  1,062
  1,109
  1,157
  1,209
  1,263
  1,320
  1,380
  1,443
  1,510
  1,581
  1,655
  1,733
  1,815
  1,902
  1,993
  2,089
  2,190
  2,296
  2,408
  2,525
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  592
  618
  647
  678
  710
  744
  779
  817
  856
  898
  937
  983
  1,032
  1,084
  1,139
  1,197
  1,258
  1,322
  1,390
  1,461
  1,536
  1,616
  1,699
  1,787
  1,880
  1,977
  2,080
  2,188
  2,301
  2,421
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,300
  1,358
  1,416
  1,478
  1,542
  1,609
  1,680
  1,755
  1,833
  1,917
  1,999
  2,092
  2,189
  2,293
  2,402
  2,517
  2,638
  2,765
  2,900
  3,042
  3,191
  3,349
  3,514
  3,689
  3,873
  4,066
  4,270
  4,484
  4,709
  4,946
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  267
  281
  292
  303
  315
  327
  340
  354
  369
  384
  392
  409
  427
  446
  466
  487
  510
  533
  558
  584
  611
  640
  671
  703
  736
  772
  809
  848
  889
  933
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -802
  -831
  -864
  -898
  -934
  -972
  -1,012
  -1,054
  -1,098
  -1,144
  -1,193
  -1,245
  -1,300
  -1,357
  -1,418
  -1,482
  -1,550
  -1,621
  -1,696
  -1,775
  -1,859
  -1,947
  -2,039
  -2,136
  -2,239
  -2,346
  -2,460
  -2,579
  -2,704
  -2,836
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -535
  -550
  -572
  -595
  -619
  -645
  -671
  -699
  -729
  -760
  -801
  -836
  -872
  -911
  -952
  -995
  -1,040
  -1,088
  -1,138
  -1,192
  -1,247
  -1,306
  -1,368
  -1,434
  -1,502
  -1,575
  -1,651
  -1,731
  -1,815
  -1,903
Discount rate, %
  4.40
  4.62
  4.85
  5.09
  5.35
  5.62
  5.90
  6.19
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -512
  -503
  -496
  -488
  -477
  -464
  -450
  -433
  -414
  -393
  -374
  -350
  -325
  -298
  -272
  -245
  -219
  -193
  -168
  -145
  -123
  -103
  -84
  -68
  -54
  -43
  -33
  -24
  -18
  -13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.8
  86.3
  80.4
  75.0
  70.1
  65.5
  61.3
  57.4
  53.9
  50.5
  47.4
  44.6
  41.9
  39.4
  37.0
  34.8
  32.8
  30.8
  29.0
  27.3
  25.7
  24.2
  22.8
  21.4
  20.2
  19.0
  17.9
  16.8
  15.9
  14.9

EQT Corporation is a natural gas company. The Company operates through three segments: EQT Production, EQT Gathering and EQT Transmission. The EQT Production segment includes its exploration for, and development and production of, natural gas, natural gas liquids and a limited amount of crude oil, primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The EQT Production segment also includes the marketing activities of the Company. EQT Production's properties are located in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky and Virginia. The operations of EQT Gathering include the natural gas gathering activities of the Company, consisting solely of assets that are owned and operated by EQT Midstream Partners, LP (EQM). The operations of EQT Transmission include the natural gas transmission and storage activities of the Company, consisting solely of assets that are owned and operated by EQM. EQT Transmission focuses on various transmission projects, including Mountain Valley Pipeline and Transmission Expansion.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EQT Corporation (EQT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -31.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 56.1%
Total Debt to Equity 56.1%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Return On Total Capital -5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Equity -8.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 42.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.6%
Operating Margin -17.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -24.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Net Profit Margin -28.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Effective Tax Rate 66.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.3%
Payout Ratio -4.4%

EQT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EQT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4558 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EQT Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of EQT Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EQT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.4%, whose default value for EQT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EQT Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EQT Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EQT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EQT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for EQT Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EQT Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EQT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EQT are equal to 410.9%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EQT Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EQT is equal to 3.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10958.229 million for EQT Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 254.508 million for EQT Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EQT Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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