Intrinsic value of Embraer ADR - ERJ

Previous Close

$19.48

  Intrinsic Value

$27.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+43%

Previous close

$19.48

 
Intrinsic value

$27.78

 
Up/down potential

+43%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ERJ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,956
  6,093
  6,250
  6,425
  6,620
  6,834
  7,067
  7,319
  7,590
  7,881
  8,193
  8,526
  8,880
  9,256
  9,655
  10,078
  10,526
  11,000
  11,500
  12,029
  12,586
  13,174
  13,794
  14,447
  15,135
  15,859
  16,621
  17,423
  18,267
  19,155
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,756
  5,884
  6,030
  6,195
  6,377
  6,576
  6,794
  7,029
  7,283
  7,555
  7,659
  7,969
  8,300
  8,652
  9,025
  9,421
  9,839
  10,282
  10,750
  11,244
  11,765
  12,315
  12,894
  13,505
  14,147
  14,824
  15,537
  16,287
  17,075
  17,905
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,756
  5,884
  6,030
  6,195
  6,377
  6,576
  6,794
  7,029
  7,283
  7,555
  7,659
  7,969
  8,300
  8,652
  9,025
  9,421
  9,839
  10,282
  10,750
  11,244
  11,765
  12,315
  12,894
  13,505
  14,147
  14,824
  15,537
  16,287
  17,075
  17,905
Operating income, $m
  200
  209
  219
  231
  244
  258
  273
  289
  307
  326
  534
  556
  579
  604
  630
  657
  687
  718
  750
  785
  821
  859
  900
  942
  987
  1,035
  1,084
  1,137
  1,192
  1,250
EBITDA, $m
  659
  674
  691
  711
  732
  756
  781
  809
  839
  872
  906
  943
  982
  1,024
  1,068
  1,115
  1,164
  1,216
  1,272
  1,330
  1,392
  1,457
  1,525
  1,598
  1,674
  1,754
  1,838
  1,927
  2,020
  2,118
Interest expense (income), $m
  180
  246
  254
  264
  275
  287
  300
  315
  331
  349
  367
  387
  409
  432
  456
  482
  510
  539
  570
  603
  637
  674
  712
  753
  795
  840
  888
  938
  990
  1,046
  1,104
Earnings before tax, $m
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -41
  147
  147
  147
  148
  148
  148
  148
  148
  148
  148
  148
  147
  147
  147
  147
  147
  146
  146
  146
  146
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  39
  39
  39
Net income, $m
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -41
  107
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  107
  107
  107
  107
  107
  107
  106

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  10,889
  11,139
  11,425
  11,747
  12,103
  12,494
  12,919
  13,380
  13,876
  14,408
  14,978
  15,586
  16,233
  16,921
  17,651
  18,425
  19,243
  20,109
  21,024
  21,990
  23,010
  24,084
  25,218
  26,411
  27,669
  28,993
  30,386
  31,852
  33,395
  35,017
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  10,889
  11,139
  11,425
  11,747
  12,103
  12,494
  12,919
  13,380
  13,876
  14,408
  14,978
  15,586
  16,233
  16,921
  17,651
  18,425
  19,243
  20,109
  21,024
  21,990
  23,010
  24,084
  25,218
  26,411
  27,669
  28,993
  30,386
  31,852
  33,395
  35,017
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
  0.547
Average production assets, $m
  3,079
  3,150
  3,231
  3,322
  3,423
  3,533
  3,654
  3,784
  3,924
  4,075
  4,236
  4,408
  4,591
  4,785
  4,992
  5,210
  5,442
  5,687
  5,946
  6,219
  6,507
  6,811
  7,131
  7,469
  7,825
  8,199
  8,593
  9,008
  9,444
  9,903
Working capital, $m
  1,060
  1,085
  1,112
  1,144
  1,178
  1,216
  1,258
  1,303
  1,351
  1,403
  1,458
  1,518
  1,581
  1,648
  1,719
  1,794
  1,874
  1,958
  2,047
  2,141
  2,240
  2,345
  2,455
  2,572
  2,694
  2,823
  2,959
  3,101
  3,252
  3,410
Total debt, $m
  4,713
  4,888
  5,088
  5,312
  5,561
  5,835
  6,132
  6,454
  6,801
  7,173
  7,571
  7,996
  8,449
  8,929
  9,440
  9,980
  10,553
  11,158
  11,797
  12,473
  13,185
  13,937
  14,729
  15,563
  16,442
  17,367
  18,341
  19,366
  20,445
  21,579
Total liabilities, $m
  7,611
  7,786
  7,986
  8,211
  8,460
  8,733
  9,030
  9,352
  9,699
  10,071
  10,470
  10,895
  11,347
  11,828
  12,338
  12,879
  13,451
  14,056
  14,696
  15,371
  16,084
  16,835
  17,627
  18,462
  19,340
  20,266
  21,240
  22,265
  23,343
  24,477
Total equity, $m
  3,277
  3,353
  3,439
  3,536
  3,643
  3,761
  3,889
  4,027
  4,177
  4,337
  4,508
  4,691
  4,886
  5,093
  5,313
  5,546
  5,792
  6,053
  6,328
  6,619
  6,926
  7,249
  7,590
  7,950
  8,328
  8,727
  9,146
  9,588
  10,052
  10,540
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10,888
  11,139
  11,425
  11,747
  12,103
  12,494
  12,919
  13,379
  13,876
  14,408
  14,978
  15,586
  16,233
  16,921
  17,651
  18,425
  19,243
  20,109
  21,024
  21,990
  23,010
  24,084
  25,217
  26,412
  27,668
  28,993
  30,386
  31,853
  33,395
  35,017
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.440
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.580
  1.600
  1.630
  1.650
  1.680
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.880
  1.900
  1.920
  1.940
  1.960
  1.970
  1.990
  2.010
  2.020
  2.030
  2.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -41
  107
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  107
  107
  107
  107
  107
  107
  106
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  458
  465
  472
  480
  488
  498
  509
  520
  532
  546
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  499
  522
  546
  571
  597
  626
  655
  686
  719
  754
  790
  828
  869
Funds from operations, $m
  412
  419
  427
  436
  445
  455
  466
  478
  491
  504
  479
  494
  510
  528
  546
  565
  585
  607
  629
  653
  679
  705
  733
  763
  794
  826
  861
  897
  935
  975
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
Cash from operations, $m
  392
  395
  399
  405
  411
  417
  425
  433
  443
  452
  424
  435
  447
  461
  475
  490
  506
  522
  540
  559
  579
  600
  623
  646
  671
  697
  725
  754
  785
  817
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -265
  -270
  -276
  -283
  -291
  -300
  -310
  -320
  -332
  -344
  -357
  -372
  -387
  -403
  -420
  -438
  -457
  -477
  -499
  -522
  -546
  -571
  -597
  -626
  -655
  -686
  -719
  -754
  -790
  -828
New CAPEX, $m
  -63
  -71
  -81
  -91
  -101
  -111
  -120
  -130
  -140
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -183
  -195
  -206
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -304
  -320
  -338
  -356
  -374
  -394
  -415
  -436
  -459
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -328
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -392
  -411
  -430
  -450
  -472
  -495
  -518
  -544
  -570
  -598
  -626
  -657
  -689
  -722
  -758
  -795
  -834
  -875
  -917
  -964
  -1,011
  -1,060
  -1,113
  -1,169
  -1,226
  -1,287
Free cash flow, $m
  64
  54
  42
  30
  18
  7
  -5
  -17
  -30
  -42
  -95
  -108
  -122
  -137
  -152
  -167
  -183
  -200
  -217
  -235
  -254
  -274
  -295
  -317
  -340
  -363
  -388
  -414
  -442
  -470
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  150
  175
  200
  225
  249
  273
  297
  322
  347
  372
  398
  425
  452
  481
  510
  541
  572
  605
  640
  675
  712
  751
  792
  834
  879
  925
  974
  1,025
  1,078
  1,134
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  109
  121
  131
  141
  150
  160
  170
  181
  191
  202
  64
  75
  87
  99
  112
  125
  139
  153
  168
  183
  199
  216
  234
  252
  271
  291
  312
  335
  358
  382
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  259
  296
  331
  366
  399
  433
  467
  503
  538
  574
  462
  500
  539
  580
  622
  666
  711
  758
  808
  858
  911
  967
  1,026
  1,086
  1,150
  1,216
  1,286
  1,360
  1,436
  1,516
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  323
  350
  373
  395
  418
  440
  463
  485
  508
  532
  367
  392
  417
  443
  471
  499
  528
  558
  590
  623
  657
  693
  730
  770
  811
  853
  898
  945
  994
  1,046
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -109
  -121
  -131
  -141
  -150
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -171
  -183
  -195
  -207
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -261
  -275
  -291
  -307
  -324
  -341
  -359
  -378
  -398
  -419
  -441
  -464
  -488
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  854
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,068
  229
  242
  255
  267
  280
  292
  305
  317
  330
  196
  209
  222
  236
  251
  266
  281
  298
  314
  332
  350
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  479
  504
  530
  558
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,024
  210
  211
  210
  207
  203
  197
  190
  182
  173
  93
  89
  85
  79
  74
  68
  61
  55
  48
  42
  36
  31
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.4
  90.6
  85.8
  81.1
  76.5
  71.9
  67.6
  63.4
  59.3
  55.5
  54.4
  53.1
  51.7
  50.3
  48.7
  47.2
  45.5
  43.9
  42.2
  40.5
  38.9
  37.2
  35.6
  34.0
  32.4
  30.8
  29.3
  27.9
  26.5
  25.1

Embraer S.A. (Embraer) is a manufacturer of jets of 70 to 130 seats. The Company produces aircraft for commercial and executive aviation, and for defense and security purposes and related services. Its segments include Commercial aviation business, which involves the development, production and sale of commercial jets, and rendering of support services, particularly in the regional aviation segment and aircraft leases; Executive Jet business, which markets its executive jets to companies, including fractional ownership companies, charter and air-taxi companies, high-net-worth individuals and to flight academies; Defense and Security Business segment, which conceives, designs, develops, manufactures and supports a range of integrated solutions for the defense and security market, and Other Related Businesses segment, which provides fuel systems, structural parts, and mechanical and hydraulic systems to Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation for its production of helicopters.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Embraer ADR (ERJ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 77.4
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -146
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 84.4%
Total Debt to Equity 97.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Equity 4.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
EBITDA Margin 11.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate -6.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Payout Ratio 17.3%

ERJ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ERJ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5839.3 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Embraer ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Embraer ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ERJ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ERJ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Embraer ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Embraer ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ERJ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ERJ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Embraer ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Embraer ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ERJ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ERJ are equal to 51.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Embraer ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ERJ is equal to 17.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4068.6 million for Embraer ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 96.492 million for Embraer ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Embraer ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Embraer Unveils Two New Bizjets   [Oct-15-18 12:35PM  Barrons.com]
▶ 5 Top Stocks to Buy in October   [Oct-03-18 12:01PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Delta Air Lines rolls out its first new Airbus A220 from Quebec factory   [Sep-18-18 04:32PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Will United Airlines Buy Embraer's Next-Generation Jets?   [Aug-29-18 04:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Embraer pitches new E2 regional jet for Alaska Air   [Aug-28-18 10:24AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Supply chain slowdown impacted Embraer's E1 production   [Aug-23-18 04:30PM  Flightglobal]
▶ Boeing names executive to oversee Embraer integration   [Aug-10-18 05:54PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Esterline expects regional jets to drive long-term growth   [Aug-06-18 05:56PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Embraer: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Embraer S.A. Material Fact   [08:22PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Embraer takes E2 on African tour   [Jul-27-18 03:34AM  Flightglobal]
▶ Embraer Earnings Preview   [Jul-26-18 02:54PM  Benzinga]
▶ Brazil judge denies bid to protect Embraer jobs   [Jul-25-18 04:45PM  Reuters]
▶ [$$] Wide Open Election Season Kicks Off in Scandal-Plagued Brazil   [Jul-20-18 07:23PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Boeing's United Airlines Dreamliner deal comes in smaller than expected   [Jul-16-18 03:52PM  American City Business Journals]

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