Intrinsic value of Euroseas Ltd. - ESEA

Previous Close

$0.68

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$0.68

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ESEA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  51.00
  46.40
  42.26
  38.53
  35.18
  32.16
  29.45
  27.00
  24.80
  22.82
  21.04
  19.44
  17.99
  16.69
  15.52
  14.47
  13.52
  12.67
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
Revenue, $m
  65
  95
  135
  187
  253
  335
  433
  550
  687
  843
  1,021
  1,219
  1,439
  1,679
  1,939
  2,220
  2,520
  2,840
  3,178
  3,534
  3,908
  4,300
  4,710
  5,138
  5,583
  6,047
  6,529
  7,030
  7,551
  8,092
Variable operating expenses, $m
  108
  151
  209
  284
  380
  497
  639
  808
  1,005
  1,232
  1,474
  1,760
  2,077
  2,424
  2,800
  3,205
  3,639
  4,100
  4,588
  5,102
  5,643
  6,209
  6,800
  7,418
  8,061
  8,730
  9,426
  10,149
  10,901
  11,683
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  108
  151
  209
  284
  380
  497
  639
  808
  1,005
  1,232
  1,474
  1,760
  2,077
  2,424
  2,800
  3,205
  3,639
  4,100
  4,588
  5,102
  5,643
  6,209
  6,800
  7,418
  8,061
  8,730
  9,426
  10,149
  10,901
  11,683
Operating income, $m
  -43
  -56
  -74
  -97
  -126
  -162
  -206
  -258
  -319
  -388
  -453
  -541
  -638
  -745
  -861
  -985
  -1,118
  -1,260
  -1,410
  -1,568
  -1,734
  -1,908
  -2,090
  -2,280
  -2,478
  -2,683
  -2,897
  -3,120
  -3,351
  -3,591
EBITDA, $m
  -16
  -24
  -34
  -47
  -63
  -83
  -108
  -137
  -171
  -210
  -255
  -304
  -359
  -419
  -484
  -554
  -628
  -708
  -792
  -881
  -975
  -1,072
  -1,175
  -1,281
  -1,392
  -1,508
  -1,628
  -1,753
  -1,883
  -2,018
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  7
  11
  16
  24
  33
  44
  57
  73
  92
  113
  137
  164
  194
  227
  263
  301
  342
  386
  432
  480
  531
  585
  641
  699
  760
  823
  889
  957
  1,028
Earnings before tax, $m
  -47
  -63
  -85
  -114
  -150
  -195
  -250
  -315
  -392
  -480
  -566
  -678
  -803
  -939
  -1,088
  -1,248
  -1,419
  -1,602
  -1,796
  -2,000
  -2,215
  -2,440
  -2,675
  -2,921
  -3,177
  -3,443
  -3,720
  -4,008
  -4,308
  -4,619
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -47
  -63
  -85
  -114
  -150
  -195
  -250
  -315
  -392
  -480
  -566
  -678
  -803
  -939
  -1,088
  -1,248
  -1,419
  -1,602
  -1,796
  -2,000
  -2,215
  -2,440
  -2,675
  -2,921
  -3,177
  -3,443
  -3,720
  -4,008
  -4,308
  -4,619

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  234
  343
  488
  676
  914
  1,208
  1,564
  1,986
  2,479
  3,045
  3,685
  4,402
  5,194
  6,061
  7,001
  8,015
  9,098
  10,251
  11,472
  12,758
  14,110
  15,525
  17,005
  18,548
  20,156
  21,830
  23,570
  25,379
  27,259
  29,212
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  234
  343
  488
  676
  914
  1,208
  1,564
  1,986
  2,479
  3,045
  3,685
  4,402
  5,194
  6,061
  7,001
  8,015
  9,098
  10,251
  11,472
  12,758
  14,110
  15,525
  17,005
  18,548
  20,156
  21,830
  23,570
  25,379
  27,259
  29,212
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.278
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
Average production assets, $m
  187
  273
  389
  539
  729
  963
  1,246
  1,583
  1,976
  2,427
  2,937
  3,508
  4,139
  4,830
  5,580
  6,387
  7,251
  8,170
  9,142
  10,167
  11,244
  12,372
  13,552
  14,782
  16,063
  17,397
  18,784
  20,225
  21,723
  23,280
Working capital, $m
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -21
  -27
  -35
  -45
  -56
  -68
  -83
  -99
  -117
  -136
  -157
  -180
  -204
  -230
  -257
  -286
  -317
  -348
  -382
  -416
  -452
  -490
  -529
  -569
  -612
  -655
Total debt, $m
  128
  204
  305
  437
  604
  809
  1,058
  1,354
  1,699
  2,095
  2,543
  3,045
  3,599
  4,206
  4,865
  5,574
  6,332
  7,139
  7,994
  8,894
  9,840
  10,831
  11,867
  12,947
  14,073
  15,244
  16,463
  17,729
  19,045
  20,412
Total liabilities, $m
  164
  240
  342
  473
  640
  846
  1,095
  1,390
  1,735
  2,131
  2,580
  3,081
  3,636
  4,242
  4,901
  5,610
  6,369
  7,176
  8,030
  8,931
  9,877
  10,868
  11,903
  12,984
  14,109
  15,281
  16,499
  17,765
  19,081
  20,449
Total equity, $m
  70
  103
  146
  203
  274
  362
  469
  596
  744
  913
  1,106
  1,321
  1,558
  1,818
  2,100
  2,404
  2,730
  3,075
  3,442
  3,827
  4,233
  4,658
  5,101
  5,564
  6,047
  6,549
  7,071
  7,614
  8,178
  8,764
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  234
  343
  488
  676
  914
  1,208
  1,564
  1,986
  2,479
  3,044
  3,686
  4,402
  5,194
  6,060
  7,001
  8,014
  9,099
  10,251
  11,472
  12,758
  14,110
  15,526
  17,004
  18,548
  20,156
  21,830
  23,570
  25,379
  27,259
  29,213
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.810
  1.980
  2.080
  2.150
  2.200
  2.230
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
  2.290
  2.300
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.320
  2.320
  2.320
  2.320
  2.320
  2.320
  2.320
  2.330
  2.330
  2.330
  2.330
  2.330
  2.330
  2.330
  2.330
  2.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -47
  -63
  -85
  -114
  -150
  -195
  -250
  -315
  -392
  -480
  -566
  -678
  -803
  -939
  -1,088
  -1,248
  -1,419
  -1,602
  -1,796
  -2,000
  -2,215
  -2,440
  -2,675
  -2,921
  -3,177
  -3,443
  -3,720
  -4,008
  -4,308
  -4,619
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  32
  40
  50
  63
  79
  98
  121
  147
  178
  198
  237
  280
  326
  377
  432
  490
  552
  618
  687
  760
  836
  916
  999
  1,085
  1,175
  1,269
  1,367
  1,468
  1,573
Funds from operations, $m
  -20
  -31
  -45
  -63
  -87
  -116
  -152
  -194
  -244
  -302
  -368
  -441
  -523
  -613
  -711
  -816
  -929
  -1,050
  -1,178
  -1,313
  -1,455
  -1,604
  -1,759
  -1,922
  -2,091
  -2,268
  -2,451
  -2,642
  -2,840
  -3,046
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
Cash from operations, $m
  -18
  -28
  -41
  -59
  -81
  -109
  -144
  -185
  -233
  -289
  -353
  -425
  -505
  -594
  -690
  -794
  -905
  -1,024
  -1,151
  -1,284
  -1,425
  -1,572
  -1,726
  -1,887
  -2,055
  -2,230
  -2,412
  -2,601
  -2,798
  -3,002
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -13
  -18
  -26
  -36
  -49
  -65
  -84
  -107
  -133
  -164
  -198
  -237
  -280
  -326
  -377
  -432
  -490
  -552
  -618
  -687
  -760
  -836
  -916
  -999
  -1,085
  -1,175
  -1,269
  -1,367
  -1,468
New CAPEX, $m
  -63
  -87
  -116
  -150
  -190
  -234
  -284
  -337
  -393
  -451
  -511
  -571
  -631
  -691
  -750
  -807
  -864
  -919
  -973
  -1,025
  -1,077
  -1,128
  -1,179
  -1,230
  -1,281
  -1,334
  -1,387
  -1,442
  -1,498
  -1,557
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -71
  -100
  -134
  -176
  -226
  -283
  -349
  -421
  -500
  -584
  -675
  -769
  -868
  -971
  -1,076
  -1,184
  -1,296
  -1,409
  -1,525
  -1,643
  -1,764
  -1,888
  -2,015
  -2,146
  -2,280
  -2,419
  -2,562
  -2,711
  -2,865
  -3,025
Free cash flow, $m
  -90
  -127
  -176
  -235
  -307
  -393
  -492
  -606
  -733
  -874
  -1,028
  -1,195
  -1,374
  -1,564
  -1,766
  -1,978
  -2,200
  -2,433
  -2,675
  -2,927
  -3,188
  -3,460
  -3,741
  -4,033
  -4,336
  -4,649
  -4,974
  -5,312
  -5,663
  -6,027
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  55
  76
  102
  132
  167
  206
  249
  296
  345
  396
  448
  501
  554
  607
  659
  709
  759
  807
  854
  901
  946
  991
  1,036
  1,080
  1,126
  1,171
  1,218
  1,266
  1,316
  1,367
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  70
  96
  128
  170
  221
  283
  357
  442
  540
  650
  758
  893
  1,040
  1,199
  1,370
  1,552
  1,745
  1,948
  2,162
  2,386
  2,620
  2,864
  3,119
  3,384
  3,659
  3,945
  4,242
  4,551
  4,872
  5,205
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  125
  172
  230
  302
  388
  489
  606
  738
  885
  1,046
  1,206
  1,394
  1,594
  1,806
  2,029
  2,261
  2,504
  2,755
  3,016
  3,287
  3,566
  3,855
  4,155
  4,464
  4,785
  5,116
  5,460
  5,817
  6,188
  6,572
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  36
  44
  54
  66
  80
  96
  113
  132
  152
  172
  179
  200
  221
  242
  263
  283
  303
  322
  341
  359
  378
  395
  413
  431
  449
  467
  486
  505
  525
  546
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -70
  -96
  -128
  -170
  -221
  -283
  -357
  -442
  -540
  -650
  -758
  -893
  -1,040
  -1,199
  -1,370
  -1,552
  -1,745
  -1,948
  -2,162
  -2,386
  -2,620
  -2,864
  -3,119
  -3,384
  -3,659
  -3,945
  -4,242
  -4,551
  -4,872
  -5,205
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -34
  -51
  -74
  -103
  -141
  -187
  -243
  -310
  -388
  -478
  -579
  -693
  -819
  -957
  -1,107
  -1,269
  -1,442
  -1,626
  -1,821
  -2,026
  -2,242
  -2,469
  -2,706
  -2,953
  -3,210
  -3,478
  -3,756
  -4,046
  -4,347
  -4,659
Discount rate, %
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -32
  -44
  -57
  -72
  -88
  -103
  -117
  -129
  -139
  -144
  -146
  -143
  -137
  -128
  -116
  -102
  -88
  -73
  -59
  -47
  -36
  -27
  -19
  -13
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  31.8
  10.8
  3.9
  1.5
  0.6
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Euroseas Ltd. is engaged in the shipping business. The Company is an owner and operator of drybulk and container carrier vessels and is a provider of seaborne transportation for drybulk and containerized cargoes. Eurobulk Ltd. manages the Company's operations. The Company also owns and operates dry bulk carriers that transport major bulks, such as iron ore, coal and grains, and minor bulks, such as bauxite, phosphate and fertilizers. The Company has a fleet of 12 vessels, including Kamsarmax drybulk carrier, Panamax drybulk carriers and Handymax drybulk carrier, Intermediate containerships, Handysize containerships, and Feeder containerships. The Company’s five drybulk carriers have a total cargo capacity of 351,272 deadweight tons (dwt), and its seven containerships have a cargo capacity of 11,828 twenty-foot equivalent units (teu).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Euroseas Ltd. (ESEA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.2
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 58.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 35.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 50%
Total Debt to Equity 56.8%
Interest Coverage -21
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -26.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.3%
Return On Total Capital -28.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.8%
Return On Equity -40.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 92.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 94.2%
EBITDA Margin -117.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.3%
Operating Margin -146.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -69.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -157.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -79.3%
Net Profit Margin -157.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -79.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ESEA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ESEA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $43 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Euroseas Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Euroseas Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ESEA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 51% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for ESEA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Euroseas Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Euroseas Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ESEA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 176.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ESEA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Euroseas Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Euroseas Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ESEA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ESEA are equal to 287.7%.

Life of production assets of 14.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Euroseas Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ESEA is equal to -8.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $46.694198 million for Euroseas Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.270 million for Euroseas Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Euroseas Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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