Intrinsic value of Esterline Technologies - ESL

Previous Close

$117.13

  Intrinsic Value

$65.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-44%

Previous close

$117.13

 
Intrinsic value

$65.41

 
Up/down potential

-44%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ESL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,040
  2,087
  2,141
  2,201
  2,268
  2,341
  2,421
  2,507
  2,600
  2,700
  2,807
  2,921
  3,042
  3,171
  3,307
  3,452
  3,606
  3,768
  3,940
  4,121
  4,312
  4,513
  4,725
  4,949
  5,185
  5,433
  5,694
  5,968
  6,258
  6,562
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,868
  1,908
  1,953
  2,004
  2,061
  2,123
  2,190
  2,263
  2,342
  2,426
  2,375
  2,472
  2,574
  2,684
  2,799
  2,922
  3,052
  3,189
  3,334
  3,487
  3,649
  3,820
  3,999
  4,189
  4,388
  4,598
  4,819
  5,052
  5,296
  5,554
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,868
  1,908
  1,953
  2,004
  2,061
  2,123
  2,190
  2,263
  2,342
  2,426
  2,375
  2,472
  2,574
  2,684
  2,799
  2,922
  3,052
  3,189
  3,334
  3,487
  3,649
  3,820
  3,999
  4,189
  4,388
  4,598
  4,819
  5,052
  5,296
  5,554
Operating income, $m
  172
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  231
  244
  258
  273
  431
  449
  467
  487
  508
  530
  554
  579
  605
  633
  662
  693
  726
  760
  796
  835
  875
  917
  961
  1,008
EBITDA, $m
  377
  385
  395
  407
  419
  432
  447
  463
  480
  499
  518
  539
  562
  586
  611
  638
  666
  696
  728
  761
  796
  834
  873
  914
  958
  1,003
  1,052
  1,102
  1,156
  1,212
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  181
  191
Earnings before tax, $m
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  167
  177
  187
  199
  211
  365
  379
  393
  409
  425
  443
  461
  481
  501
  523
  546
  571
  596
  623
  651
  681
  713
  746
  781
  817
Tax expense, $m
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  221
Net income, $m
  95
  99
  104
  110
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  323
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  435
  455
  476
  497
  520
  544
  570
  597

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,183
  3,256
  3,340
  3,434
  3,538
  3,652
  3,777
  3,911
  4,056
  4,212
  4,378
  4,556
  4,745
  4,946
  5,160
  5,386
  5,625
  5,878
  6,146
  6,428
  6,726
  7,040
  7,372
  7,721
  8,088
  8,475
  8,883
  9,311
  9,762
  10,236
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,183
  3,256
  3,340
  3,434
  3,538
  3,652
  3,777
  3,911
  4,056
  4,212
  4,378
  4,556
  4,745
  4,946
  5,160
  5,386
  5,625
  5,878
  6,146
  6,428
  6,726
  7,040
  7,372
  7,721
  8,088
  8,475
  8,883
  9,311
  9,762
  10,236
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
Average production assets, $m
  1,071
  1,096
  1,124
  1,156
  1,191
  1,229
  1,271
  1,316
  1,365
  1,417
  1,473
  1,533
  1,597
  1,665
  1,736
  1,813
  1,893
  1,978
  2,068
  2,163
  2,264
  2,369
  2,481
  2,598
  2,722
  2,852
  2,989
  3,133
  3,285
  3,445
Working capital, $m
  596
  609
  625
  643
  662
  684
  707
  732
  759
  788
  820
  853
  888
  926
  966
  1,008
  1,053
  1,100
  1,150
  1,203
  1,259
  1,318
  1,380
  1,445
  1,514
  1,586
  1,663
  1,743
  1,827
  1,916
Total debt, $m
  803
  833
  868
  907
  950
  997
  1,049
  1,105
  1,165
  1,230
  1,299
  1,372
  1,451
  1,534
  1,623
  1,717
  1,816
  1,921
  2,032
  2,149
  2,273
  2,403
  2,541
  2,686
  2,838
  2,999
  3,168
  3,346
  3,533
  3,730
Total liabilities, $m
  1,321
  1,351
  1,386
  1,425
  1,468
  1,516
  1,567
  1,623
  1,683
  1,748
  1,817
  1,891
  1,969
  2,053
  2,141
  2,235
  2,335
  2,440
  2,551
  2,668
  2,791
  2,922
  3,059
  3,204
  3,357
  3,517
  3,686
  3,864
  4,051
  4,248
Total equity, $m
  1,862
  1,905
  1,954
  2,009
  2,070
  2,137
  2,209
  2,288
  2,373
  2,464
  2,561
  2,665
  2,776
  2,894
  3,018
  3,151
  3,291
  3,439
  3,595
  3,761
  3,935
  4,119
  4,312
  4,517
  4,732
  4,958
  5,196
  5,447
  5,711
  5,988
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,183
  3,256
  3,340
  3,434
  3,538
  3,653
  3,776
  3,911
  4,056
  4,212
  4,378
  4,556
  4,745
  4,947
  5,159
  5,386
  5,626
  5,879
  6,146
  6,429
  6,726
  7,041
  7,371
  7,721
  8,089
  8,475
  8,882
  9,311
  9,762
  10,236
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585
  0.585

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  95
  99
  104
  110
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  323
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  435
  455
  476
  497
  520
  544
  570
  597
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  205
  206
  208
  210
  212
  214
  216
  219
  222
  225
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
Funds from operations, $m
  300
  305
  312
  319
  327
  336
  346
  356
  367
  379
  353
  367
  382
  397
  413
  430
  449
  468
  488
  510
  533
  557
  582
  609
  637
  666
  697
  730
  764
  800
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
Cash from operations, $m
  288
  292
  296
  302
  308
  315
  322
  331
  340
  350
  322
  334
  346
  359
  373
  388
  404
  421
  438
  457
  477
  498
  520
  543
  568
  594
  621
  650
  680
  712
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -291
  -306
  -321
  -337
  -354
Free cash flow, $m
  206
  204
  203
  203
  204
  206
  208
  210
  213
  217
  182
  187
  192
  197
  203
  209
  216
  223
  231
  240
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  329
  343
  358
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  26
  30
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  83
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  26
  30
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  83
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  231
  234
  238
  242
  247
  253
  259
  266
  273
  281
  251
  261
  270
  281
  291
  303
  315
  329
  342
  357
  372
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
  484
  506
  530
  554
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -277
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  194
  191
  189
  187
  187
  186
  187
  187
  188
  190
  154
  157
  160
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  186
  192
  198
  205
  212
  220
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
Discount rate, %
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  186
  174
  163
  153
  143
  133
  124
  115
  106
  97
  71
  64
  58
  52
  46
  41
  36
  31
  26
  22
  19
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Esterline Technologies Corporation is a specialized manufacturing company. The Company designs, manufactures and markets engineered products and systems for application within the industries it serves. The Company operates through three segments: Avionics & Controls, Sensors & Systems, and Advanced Materials. The Company serves aerospace and defense customers. The Company's Avionics & Controls business segment includes avionics systems, control and communication systems, and interface technologies capabilities. The Company's Sensors & Systems business segment includes power systems, connection technologies and advanced sensors capabilities. The Company's Advanced Materials business segment includes engineered materials and defense technologies capabilities. The Company designs and manufactures ruggedized military personal communication equipment, primarily headsets, handsets and field communications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Esterline Technologies (ESL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 26
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -14.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 41.4%
Total Debt to Equity 42.3%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity 6.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
EBITDA Margin 14.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Operating Margin 9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 23.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

ESL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ESL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2000.304 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Esterline Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Esterline Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ESL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for ESL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Esterline Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Esterline Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ESL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ESL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Esterline Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Esterline Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ESL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ESL are equal to 52.5%.

Life of production assets of 16.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Esterline Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ESL is equal to 29.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1824.755 million for Esterline Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.443 million for Esterline Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Esterline Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Oct-10-18 05:03PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Boeing supplier Esterline Technologies is being sold for $4 billion   [10:17AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Mitsubishi vows to deliver MRJ in 2020 after another order appears at risk   [Oct-08-18 07:27PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Fresh Esterline rumors name possible suitors for the Boeing supplier   [Sep-19-18 05:54PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Aerospace Futures Alliance explores alliance with South Carolina group   [Sep-17-18 12:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Summer sale at Esterline? Boeing may be shopping, and both need deals   [Jul-24-18 05:59PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Esterline Technologies Exploring Potential Sale   [01:55PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Public company execs to know: Aerospace giant Esterline CEO Curtis Reusser   [Jun-22-18 05:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Esterline Provides Third Quarter Earnings Expectations   [Jun-11-18 04:52PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Esterline Technologies: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 04:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Esterline sells Boeing and Airbus supplier Kirkhill to TransDigm   [Mar-15-18 09:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Esterline Notice On Timing of Form 10-Q Filing   [Feb-16-18 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Esterline Technologies reports 1Q loss   [Feb-01-18 04:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for January 29th   [Jan-29-18 04:59AM  Zacks]
▶ 4 Top Aerospace Stocks to Consider Buying Now   [Nov-29-17 08:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Esterline Technologies misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Nov-09-17 04:43PM  Associated Press]

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