Intrinsic value of ENSCO - ESV

Previous Close

$6.17

  Intrinsic Value

$6.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+6%

Previous close

$6.17

 
Intrinsic value

$6.56

 
Up/down potential

+6%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ESV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,880
  1,923
  1,973
  2,028
  2,089
  2,157
  2,230
  2,310
  2,396
  2,488
  2,586
  2,691
  2,803
  2,921
  3,047
  3,181
  3,322
  3,472
  3,630
  3,796
  3,972
  4,158
  4,354
  4,560
  4,777
  5,005
  5,246
  5,499
  5,765
  6,046
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,250
  1,279
  1,312
  1,349
  1,390
  1,434
  1,483
  1,536
  1,593
  1,654
  1,720
  1,789
  1,864
  1,943
  2,026
  2,115
  2,209
  2,309
  2,414
  2,525
  2,642
  2,765
  2,895
  3,032
  3,177
  3,329
  3,489
  3,657
  3,834
  4,020
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,250
  1,279
  1,312
  1,349
  1,390
  1,434
  1,483
  1,536
  1,593
  1,654
  1,720
  1,789
  1,864
  1,943
  2,026
  2,115
  2,209
  2,309
  2,414
  2,525
  2,642
  2,765
  2,895
  3,032
  3,177
  3,329
  3,489
  3,657
  3,834
  4,020
Operating income, $m
  630
  644
  661
  679
  700
  723
  747
  774
  803
  833
  866
  901
  939
  979
  1,021
  1,066
  1,113
  1,163
  1,216
  1,272
  1,331
  1,393
  1,458
  1,528
  1,600
  1,677
  1,757
  1,842
  1,931
  2,025
EBITDA, $m
  1,843
  1,886
  1,934
  1,988
  2,049
  2,115
  2,187
  2,265
  2,349
  2,439
  2,535
  2,638
  2,748
  2,864
  2,988
  3,119
  3,257
  3,404
  3,559
  3,722
  3,895
  4,077
  4,269
  4,471
  4,684
  4,908
  5,144
  5,392
  5,653
  5,928
Interest expense (income), $m
  265
  257
  263
  270
  279
  288
  299
  311
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  443
  464
  487
  512
  538
  565
  594
  624
  656
  690
  725
  763
  802
  844
  888
  934
Earnings before tax, $m
  373
  381
  391
  401
  412
  424
  437
  451
  465
  482
  499
  517
  536
  557
  578
  601
  626
  651
  678
  707
  737
  769
  802
  838
  875
  914
  955
  998
  1,044
  1,092
Tax expense, $m
  101
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
Net income, $m
  272
  278
  285
  292
  300
  309
  319
  329
  340
  351
  364
  377
  391
  406
  422
  439
  457
  475
  495
  516
  538
  561
  586
  612
  639
  667
  697
  729
  762
  797

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  14,802
  15,142
  15,532
  15,969
  16,453
  16,984
  17,562
  18,188
  18,863
  19,587
  20,361
  21,188
  22,068
  23,003
  23,995
  25,046
  26,160
  27,337
  28,580
  29,894
  31,279
  32,740
  34,281
  35,904
  37,613
  39,413
  41,307
  43,300
  45,397
  47,603
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  14,802
  15,142
  15,532
  15,969
  16,453
  16,984
  17,562
  18,188
  18,863
  19,587
  20,361
  21,188
  22,068
  23,003
  23,995
  25,046
  26,160
  27,337
  28,580
  29,894
  31,279
  32,740
  34,281
  35,904
  37,613
  39,413
  41,307
  43,300
  45,397
  47,603
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
Average production assets, $m
  12,134
  12,414
  12,733
  13,091
  13,488
  13,923
  14,397
  14,911
  15,464
  16,057
  16,692
  17,369
  18,091
  18,857
  19,671
  20,533
  21,445
  22,410
  23,430
  24,506
  25,642
  26,840
  28,103
  29,433
  30,835
  32,310
  33,863
  35,497
  37,216
  39,024
Working capital, $m
  -442
  -452
  -464
  -477
  -491
  -507
  -524
  -543
  -563
  -585
  -608
  -632
  -659
  -687
  -716
  -748
  -781
  -816
  -853
  -892
  -934
  -977
  -1,023
  -1,072
  -1,123
  -1,176
  -1,233
  -1,292
  -1,355
  -1,421
Total debt, $m
  4,866
  5,005
  5,163
  5,340
  5,537
  5,752
  5,987
  6,241
  6,515
  6,809
  7,123
  7,459
  7,816
  8,196
  8,599
  9,026
  9,478
  9,955
  10,460
  10,994
  11,556
  12,149
  12,775
  13,434
  14,128
  14,858
  15,627
  16,437
  17,288
  18,184
Total liabilities, $m
  6,010
  6,148
  6,306
  6,483
  6,680
  6,895
  7,130
  7,384
  7,658
  7,952
  8,267
  8,602
  8,959
  9,339
  9,742
  10,169
  10,621
  11,099
  11,604
  12,137
  12,699
  13,293
  13,918
  14,577
  15,271
  16,002
  16,771
  17,580
  18,431
  19,327
Total equity, $m
  8,792
  8,995
  9,226
  9,485
  9,773
  10,088
  10,432
  10,804
  11,205
  11,635
  12,095
  12,585
  13,108
  13,664
  14,253
  14,878
  15,539
  16,238
  16,977
  17,757
  18,580
  19,448
  20,363
  21,327
  22,342
  23,411
  24,536
  25,720
  26,966
  28,276
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  14,802
  15,143
  15,532
  15,968
  16,453
  16,983
  17,562
  18,188
  18,863
  19,587
  20,362
  21,187
  22,067
  23,003
  23,995
  25,047
  26,160
  27,337
  28,581
  29,894
  31,279
  32,741
  34,281
  35,904
  37,613
  39,413
  41,307
  43,300
  45,397
  47,603
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594
  0.594

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  272
  278
  285
  292
  300
  309
  319
  329
  340
  351
  364
  377
  391
  406
  422
  439
  457
  475
  495
  516
  538
  561
  586
  612
  639
  667
  697
  729
  762
  797
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,213
  1,241
  1,273
  1,309
  1,349
  1,392
  1,440
  1,491
  1,546
  1,606
  1,669
  1,737
  1,809
  1,886
  1,967
  2,053
  2,145
  2,241
  2,343
  2,451
  2,564
  2,684
  2,810
  2,943
  3,083
  3,231
  3,386
  3,550
  3,722
  3,902
Funds from operations, $m
  1,486
  1,520
  1,558
  1,602
  1,649
  1,702
  1,758
  1,820
  1,886
  1,957
  2,033
  2,114
  2,200
  2,292
  2,389
  2,492
  2,601
  2,716
  2,838
  2,967
  3,102
  3,245
  3,396
  3,555
  3,722
  3,898
  4,083
  4,278
  4,484
  4,699
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -63
  -66
Cash from operations, $m
  1,495
  1,530
  1,570
  1,615
  1,664
  1,717
  1,776
  1,839
  1,906
  1,979
  2,056
  2,139
  2,227
  2,320
  2,419
  2,524
  2,634
  2,752
  2,875
  3,006
  3,144
  3,289
  3,442
  3,603
  3,773
  3,952
  4,140
  4,338
  4,546
  4,765
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1,190
  -1,213
  -1,241
  -1,273
  -1,309
  -1,349
  -1,392
  -1,440
  -1,491
  -1,546
  -1,606
  -1,669
  -1,737
  -1,809
  -1,886
  -1,967
  -2,053
  -2,145
  -2,241
  -2,343
  -2,451
  -2,564
  -2,684
  -2,810
  -2,943
  -3,083
  -3,231
  -3,386
  -3,550
  -3,722
New CAPEX, $m
  -238
  -279
  -319
  -358
  -397
  -435
  -474
  -513
  -553
  -593
  -635
  -677
  -721
  -767
  -813
  -862
  -912
  -965
  -1,020
  -1,077
  -1,136
  -1,198
  -1,263
  -1,330
  -1,401
  -1,475
  -1,553
  -1,634
  -1,719
  -1,808
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,428
  -1,492
  -1,560
  -1,631
  -1,706
  -1,784
  -1,866
  -1,953
  -2,044
  -2,139
  -2,241
  -2,346
  -2,458
  -2,576
  -2,699
  -2,829
  -2,965
  -3,110
  -3,261
  -3,420
  -3,587
  -3,762
  -3,947
  -4,140
  -4,344
  -4,558
  -4,784
  -5,020
  -5,269
  -5,530
Free cash flow, $m
  67
  37
  10
  -17
  -42
  -67
  -91
  -114
  -138
  -161
  -184
  -208
  -232
  -256
  -280
  -306
  -331
  -358
  -385
  -414
  -443
  -473
  -505
  -537
  -571
  -607
  -644
  -682
  -723
  -765
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  116
  138
  158
  177
  197
  216
  235
  254
  274
  294
  314
  336
  357
  380
  403
  427
  452
  478
  505
  533
  563
  593
  625
  659
  694
  731
  769
  809
  851
  896
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  25
  43
  61
  79
  96
  114
  131
  149
  167
  186
  205
  224
  244
  264
  285
  307
  329
  352
  377
  402
  428
  455
  484
  513
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  116
  138
  158
  177
  197
  222
  260
  297
  335
  373
  410
  450
  488
  529
  570
  613
  657
  702
  749
  797
  848
  900
  954
  1,011
  1,071
  1,133
  1,197
  1,264
  1,335
  1,409
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  183
  176
  168
  161
  154
  155
  169
  183
  197
  211
  226
  241
  257
  273
  290
  307
  325
  344
  363
  384
  405
  427
  450
  474
  499
  526
  553
  582
  612
  644
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -187
  -202
  -231
  -260
  -288
  -316
  -344
  -372
  -401
  -430
  -460
  -491
  -523
  -555
  -589
  -625
  -661
  -699
  -739
  -780
  -823
  -868
  -915
  -964
  -1,015
  -1,069
  -1,125
  -1,184
  -1,246
  -1,310
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  41
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
Cash available for distribution, $m
  122
  -27
  -64
  -99
  -133
  -160
  -175
  -189
  -204
  -219
  -234
  -250
  -266
  -282
  -300
  -318
  -336
  -355
  -376
  -397
  -418
  -441
  -465
  -490
  -516
  -543
  -572
  -602
  -633
  -666
Discount rate, %
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  115
  -23
  -52
  -74
  -91
  -99
  -97
  -94
  -89
  -84
  -77
  -70
  -63
  -56
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -29
  -24
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.6
  99.0
  98.2
  97.2
  96.1
  94.8
  93.4
  91.9
  90.3
  88.7
  87.0
  85.2
  83.4
  81.6
  79.8
  78.0
  76.1
  74.3
  72.5
  70.6
  68.8
  67.1
  65.3
  63.6

Ensco plc is an offshore contract drilling company. The Company provides offshore contract drilling services to the international oil and gas industry. Its segments include Floaters, Jackups and Other. The Floaters segment includes its drillships and semisubmersible rigs, and provides contract drilling. Other consists of management services on rigs owned by third parties. The Floaters and the Jackups segments provide contract drilling. It owned and operated an offshore drilling rig fleet of 57 rigs, including two rigs under construction, with drilling operations around the world, as of December 31, 2016. As of December 31, 2016, its rig fleet included eight drill ships, 10 dynamically positioned semisubmersible rigs, three moored semisubmersible rigs and 38 jackup rigs. As of December 31, 2016, of its 59 rigs, 25 were located in the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific, 16 were located in North and South America (including Brazil) and 18 were located in Europe and the Mediterranean.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ENSCO (ESV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2.1
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -31.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -80.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -28.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 59.9%
Total Debt to Equity 63.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Return On Total Capital 6.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.9%
EBITDA Margin 61.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Operating Margin 33.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 36%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Net Profit Margin 32.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.9%
Effective Tax Rate 10.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Payout Ratio 1.3%

ESV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ESV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1843 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ENSCO. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of ENSCO. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ESV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for ESV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ENSCO, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ENSCO.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ESV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ESV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for ENSCO.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ENSCO. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ESV stock is equal to 2.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ESV are equal to 645.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ENSCO operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ESV is equal to -23.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8732 million for ENSCO - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 333 million for ENSCO is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ENSCO at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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