Intrinsic value of Ethan Allen Interiors - ETH

Previous Close

$24.30

  Intrinsic Value

$21.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-11%

Previous close

$24.30

 
Intrinsic value

$21.55

 
Up/down potential

-11%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ETH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  778
  796
  817
  840
  865
  893
  923
  956
  992
  1,030
  1,071
  1,114
  1,160
  1,209
  1,262
  1,317
  1,375
  1,437
  1,503
  1,572
  1,645
  1,721
  1,802
  1,888
  1,978
  2,072
  2,172
  2,277
  2,387
  2,503
Variable operating expenses, $m
  691
  707
  725
  745
  768
  792
  819
  848
  879
  913
  944
  983
  1,023
  1,067
  1,113
  1,162
  1,213
  1,268
  1,326
  1,386
  1,451
  1,518
  1,590
  1,665
  1,744
  1,828
  1,916
  2,008
  2,105
  2,208
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  691
  707
  725
  745
  768
  792
  819
  848
  879
  913
  944
  983
  1,023
  1,067
  1,113
  1,162
  1,213
  1,268
  1,326
  1,386
  1,451
  1,518
  1,590
  1,665
  1,744
  1,828
  1,916
  2,008
  2,105
  2,208
Operating income, $m
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  112
  117
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
EBITDA, $m
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
Earnings before tax, $m
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  200
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  275
Tax expense, $m
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
Net income, $m
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  579
  593
  608
  625
  644
  665
  688
  712
  738
  767
  797
  829
  864
  901
  939
  981
  1,024
  1,070
  1,119
  1,170
  1,225
  1,282
  1,342
  1,406
  1,473
  1,543
  1,617
  1,695
  1,777
  1,864
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  579
  593
  608
  625
  644
  665
  688
  712
  738
  767
  797
  829
  864
  901
  939
  981
  1,024
  1,070
  1,119
  1,170
  1,225
  1,282
  1,342
  1,406
  1,473
  1,543
  1,617
  1,695
  1,777
  1,864
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.344
  1.342
  1.344
  1.344
  1.343
  1.343
  1.342
  1.343
  1.344
  1.343
  1.344
  1.344
  1.343
  1.342
  1.344
  1.343
  1.343
  1.343
  1.343
  1.344
  1.343
  1.342
  1.343
  1.343
  1.343
  1.343
  1.343
  1.343
  1.343
  1.343
Average production assets, $m
  323
  330
  339
  348
  359
  371
  383
  397
  412
  427
  444
  462
  482
  502
  524
  547
  571
  596
  624
  652
  683
  714
  748
  783
  821
  860
  901
  945
  991
  1,039
Working capital, $m
  135
  139
  142
  146
  151
  155
  161
  166
  173
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
Total debt, $m
  17
  21
  26
  31
  36
  43
  49
  56
  64
  73
  81
  91
  101
  112
  123
  135
  148
  162
  176
  191
  207
  224
  242
  260
  280
  301
  323
  345
  370
  395
Total liabilities, $m
  170
  174
  179
  184
  189
  195
  202
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  413
  433
  454
  475
  498
  523
  548
Total equity, $m
  409
  419
  429
  441
  455
  469
  485
  503
  521
  541
  563
  586
  610
  636
  663
  692
  723
  756
  790
  826
  865
  905
  948
  992
  1,040
  1,089
  1,142
  1,197
  1,255
  1,316
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  579
  593
  608
  625
  644
  664
  687
  712
  738
  766
  797
  830
  864
  901
  939
  980
  1,024
  1,071
  1,119
  1,170
  1,225
  1,282
  1,343
  1,405
  1,473
  1,543
  1,617
  1,695
  1,778
  1,864
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706
  0.706

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
Funds from operations, $m
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  114
  117
  121
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  185
  194
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Cash from operations, $m
  97
  99
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  136
  142
  147
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  259
  272
  285
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
Free cash flow, $m
  60
  59
  59
  60
  61
  61
  62
  64
  65
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  63
  63
  64
  65
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Cash available for distribution, $m
  55
  54
  53
  53
  53
  53
  53
  53
  54
  55
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  52
  49
  46
  44
  41
  38
  36
  33
  31
  29
  26
  24
  22
  20
  17
  16
  14
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. is an interior design company. The Company is a manufacturer and retailer of home furnishings. The Company operates through two segments, which include wholesale and retail. The Company is an international home fashion brand doing business in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. It offers complimentary interior design service to its clients and sells a range of furniture products and decorative accents through ethanallen.com and a network of design centers in the United States and abroad. Its wholesale segment, principally involved in the development of the Ethan Allen brand, encompasses various aspects of design, manufacture, sourcing, sale, and distribution of its range of home furnishings and accents. The Company's retail segment sells home furnishings and accents to consumers through a network of Company-operated design centers. As of June 30, 2016, the Company owned and operated nine manufacturing facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ethan Allen Interiors (ETH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.5
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 19
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.7%
Total Debt to Equity 3.5%
Interest Coverage 58
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.1%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Effective Tax Rate 36.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
Payout Ratio 55.6%

ETH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ETH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $763 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ethan Allen Interiors. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ethan Allen Interiors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ETH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ETH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ethan Allen Interiors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ethan Allen Interiors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ETH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ETH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ethan Allen Interiors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ethan Allen Interiors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ETH stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ETH are equal to 41.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ethan Allen Interiors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ETH is equal to 17.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $401 million for Ethan Allen Interiors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28 million for Ethan Allen Interiors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ethan Allen Interiors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Sacramento Kings launch crypto-based charity   [Jun-28-18 01:38PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ $42 Billion of cryptocurrency market cap wiped out by hackers   [Jun-11-18 12:58PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Bitcoin drops 9%, now back below $8,000   [May-23-18 01:43PM  CNBC]
▶ Farooq Kathwari Receives Ellis Island Medal of Honor   [May-17-18 05:13PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ethan Allen Unveils New Uptown Look   [10:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ethan Allen: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETHAN ALLEN REPORTS FISCAL 2018 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS   [Apr-26-18 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What does the ethereum bug mean for your crypto?   [Apr-25-18 05:22PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Bitcoin jumps 7% amid massive market sell-off   [Apr-24-18 05:53PM  CNBC]
▶ Riot Blockchain issued a subpoena by SEC   [Apr-18-18 02:10PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Edited Transcript of ETH corporate analyst meeting   [Apr-10-18 07:51PM  Thomson Reuters StreetEvents]
▶ Be on your toes and carry a lot of cash   [Apr-06-18 06:37PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ China Isn't Helping Blockchain, Or Bitcoin   [Mar-30-18 11:02AM  Forbes]
▶ Best Of Both Worlds: Ethan Allen Interiors And More   [Mar-26-18 04:05PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Inside the first-of-its-kind cryptocurrency wallet   [01:43PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Ethan Allen Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jan-25-18 04:17PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ethan Allen beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jan-24-18 05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Juno and Boeing climb while Goldman Sachs and GE drop   [Jan-17-18 04:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trader breaks down ethereum's amazing run   [Jan-12-18 05:12PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Will Bitcoin Futures Be the Next Big Thing?   [08:33AM  Market Realist]
▶ Ethan Allen CEO on Amazon partnership   [Nov-24-17 11:19AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Should You Buy Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETH)?   [Nov-23-17 02:21PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Bitcoin's Price Slips Below $7,000   [Nov-06-17 02:39PM  Coindesk]
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