Intrinsic value of Entergy Corporation - ETR

Previous Close

$96.12

  Intrinsic Value

$14.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

Previous close

$96.12

 
Intrinsic value

$14.39

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ETR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 18.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  11,229
  11,487
  11,783
  12,114
  12,481
  12,884
  13,323
  13,798
  14,310
  14,859
  15,447
  16,073
  16,741
  17,450
  18,203
  19,001
  19,845
  20,738
  21,682
  22,678
  23,729
  24,838
  26,006
  27,237
  28,534
  29,899
  31,336
  32,848
  34,439
  36,113
Variable operating expenses, $m
  9,847
  10,073
  10,331
  10,620
  10,941
  11,293
  11,676
  12,091
  12,538
  13,018
  13,494
  14,041
  14,624
  15,244
  15,902
  16,599
  17,336
  18,116
  18,941
  19,811
  20,729
  21,698
  22,718
  23,794
  24,927
  26,119
  27,375
  28,696
  30,085
  31,547
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,847
  10,073
  10,331
  10,620
  10,941
  11,293
  11,676
  12,091
  12,538
  13,018
  13,494
  14,041
  14,624
  15,244
  15,902
  16,599
  17,336
  18,116
  18,941
  19,811
  20,729
  21,698
  22,718
  23,794
  24,927
  26,119
  27,375
  28,696
  30,085
  31,547
Operating income, $m
  1,382
  1,415
  1,452
  1,494
  1,540
  1,591
  1,647
  1,707
  1,771
  1,841
  1,953
  2,032
  2,116
  2,206
  2,301
  2,402
  2,509
  2,622
  2,741
  2,867
  3,000
  3,140
  3,288
  3,443
  3,607
  3,780
  3,962
  4,153
  4,354
  4,566
EBITDA, $m
  3,492
  3,572
  3,664
  3,767
  3,881
  4,007
  4,143
  4,291
  4,450
  4,621
  4,803
  4,998
  5,206
  5,427
  5,661
  5,909
  6,171
  6,449
  6,742
  7,052
  7,379
  7,724
  8,087
  8,470
  8,873
  9,298
  9,745
  10,215
  10,710
  11,230
Interest expense (income), $m
  747
  979
  1,023
  1,073
  1,130
  1,194
  1,265
  1,343
  1,428
  1,520
  1,619
  1,725
  1,839
  1,960
  2,089
  2,227
  2,372
  2,527
  2,690
  2,863
  3,045
  3,238
  3,441
  3,656
  3,882
  4,120
  4,371
  4,635
  4,913
  5,206
  5,514
Earnings before tax, $m
  403
  392
  379
  364
  346
  326
  304
  279
  252
  222
  228
  193
  156
  117
  75
  30
  -18
  -68
  -122
  -178
  -238
  -301
  -368
  -439
  -513
  -591
  -674
  -761
  -852
  -948
Tax expense, $m
  109
  106
  102
  98
  93
  88
  82
  75
  68
  60
  61
  52
  42
  32
  20
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  294
  286
  277
  266
  253
  238
  222
  204
  184
  162
  166
  141
  114
  85
  55
  22
  -18
  -68
  -122
  -178
  -238
  -301
  -368
  -439
  -513
  -591
  -674
  -761
  -852
  -948

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  49,251
  50,384
  51,678
  53,132
  54,743
  56,510
  58,435
  60,518
  62,763
  65,171
  67,748
  70,498
  73,425
  76,537
  79,838
  83,337
  87,040
  90,957
  95,095
  99,465
  104,075
  108,937
  114,062
  119,462
  125,149
  131,137
  137,440
  144,072
  151,050
  158,389
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  49,251
  50,384
  51,678
  53,132
  54,743
  56,510
  58,435
  60,518
  62,763
  65,171
  67,748
  70,498
  73,425
  76,537
  79,838
  83,337
  87,040
  90,957
  95,095
  99,465
  104,075
  108,937
  114,062
  119,462
  125,149
  131,137
  137,440
  144,072
  151,050
  158,389
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
Average production assets, $m
  31,913
  32,647
  33,486
  34,428
  35,472
  36,617
  37,864
  39,214
  40,669
  42,229
  43,899
  45,681
  47,578
  49,594
  51,733
  54,000
  56,400
  58,938
  61,619
  64,451
  67,438
  70,589
  73,910
  77,409
  81,094
  84,974
  89,058
  93,355
  97,877
  102,632
Working capital, $m
  -382
  -391
  -401
  -412
  -424
  -438
  -453
  -469
  -487
  -505
  -525
  -546
  -569
  -593
  -619
  -646
  -675
  -705
  -737
  -771
  -807
  -844
  -884
  -926
  -970
  -1,017
  -1,065
  -1,117
  -1,171
  -1,228
Total debt, $m
  18,940
  19,865
  20,923
  22,111
  23,427
  24,871
  26,443
  28,145
  29,979
  31,947
  34,052
  36,298
  38,690
  41,232
  43,930
  46,788
  49,814
  53,014
  56,395
  59,965
  63,731
  67,704
  71,891
  76,302
  80,949
  85,841
  90,990
  96,409
  102,109
  108,105
Total liabilities, $m
  40,238
  41,163
  42,221
  43,409
  44,725
  46,169
  47,741
  49,443
  51,277
  53,245
  55,350
  57,597
  59,988
  62,530
  65,228
  68,086
  71,112
  74,312
  77,693
  81,263
  85,029
  89,002
  93,189
  97,601
  102,247
  107,139
  112,288
  117,707
  123,408
  129,404
Total equity, $m
  9,013
  9,220
  9,457
  9,723
  10,018
  10,341
  10,694
  11,075
  11,486
  11,926
  12,398
  12,901
  13,437
  14,006
  14,610
  15,251
  15,928
  16,645
  17,402
  18,202
  19,046
  19,936
  20,873
  21,862
  22,902
  23,998
  25,152
  26,365
  27,642
  28,985
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  49,251
  50,383
  51,678
  53,132
  54,743
  56,510
  58,435
  60,518
  62,763
  65,171
  67,748
  70,498
  73,425
  76,536
  79,838
  83,337
  87,040
  90,957
  95,095
  99,465
  104,075
  108,938
  114,062
  119,463
  125,149
  131,137
  137,440
  144,072
  151,050
  158,389
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.100
  2.150
  2.210
  2.270
  2.340
  2.400
  2.470
  2.540
  2.610
  2.680
  2.750
  2.810
  2.880
  2.940
  3.010
  3.070
  3.130
  3.180
  3.240
  3.290
  3.350
  3.400
  3.440
  3.490
  3.530
  3.580
  3.620
  3.660
  3.690
  3.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183
  0.183

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  294
  286
  277
  266
  253
  238
  222
  204
  184
  162
  166
  141
  114
  85
  55
  22
  -18
  -68
  -122
  -178
  -238
  -301
  -368
  -439
  -513
  -591
  -674
  -761
  -852
  -948
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2,110
  2,158
  2,212
  2,273
  2,341
  2,415
  2,496
  2,584
  2,679
  2,780
  2,851
  2,966
  3,089
  3,220
  3,359
  3,507
  3,662
  3,827
  4,001
  4,185
  4,379
  4,584
  4,799
  5,027
  5,266
  5,518
  5,783
  6,062
  6,356
  6,664
Funds from operations, $m
  2,404
  2,444
  2,489
  2,539
  2,594
  2,654
  2,718
  2,788
  2,862
  2,942
  3,017
  3,107
  3,204
  3,306
  3,414
  3,528
  3,645
  3,759
  3,880
  4,007
  4,141
  4,282
  4,431
  4,588
  4,753
  4,927
  5,109
  5,301
  5,504
  5,716
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
Cash from operations, $m
  2,412
  2,452
  2,499
  2,550
  2,606
  2,667
  2,733
  2,804
  2,880
  2,961
  3,037
  3,129
  3,226
  3,330
  3,439
  3,556
  3,673
  3,789
  3,912
  4,041
  4,177
  4,320
  4,471
  4,630
  4,797
  4,973
  5,158
  5,353
  5,558
  5,773
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2,032
  -2,072
  -2,120
  -2,174
  -2,236
  -2,303
  -2,378
  -2,459
  -2,546
  -2,641
  -2,742
  -2,851
  -2,966
  -3,089
  -3,220
  -3,359
  -3,507
  -3,662
  -3,827
  -4,001
  -4,185
  -4,379
  -4,584
  -4,799
  -5,027
  -5,266
  -5,518
  -5,783
  -6,062
  -6,356
New CAPEX, $m
  -623
  -734
  -839
  -942
  -1,044
  -1,145
  -1,247
  -1,350
  -1,454
  -1,561
  -1,670
  -1,782
  -1,897
  -2,016
  -2,139
  -2,267
  -2,400
  -2,538
  -2,682
  -2,831
  -2,987
  -3,151
  -3,321
  -3,499
  -3,685
  -3,880
  -4,084
  -4,298
  -4,521
  -4,756
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2,655
  -2,806
  -2,959
  -3,116
  -3,280
  -3,448
  -3,625
  -3,809
  -4,000
  -4,202
  -4,412
  -4,633
  -4,863
  -5,105
  -5,359
  -5,626
  -5,907
  -6,200
  -6,509
  -6,832
  -7,172
  -7,530
  -7,905
  -8,298
  -8,712
  -9,146
  -9,602
  -10,081
  -10,583
  -11,112
Free cash flow, $m
  -243
  -354
  -460
  -566
  -673
  -781
  -892
  -1,005
  -1,121
  -1,241
  -1,375
  -1,504
  -1,637
  -1,776
  -1,920
  -2,071
  -2,233
  -2,411
  -2,597
  -2,792
  -2,996
  -3,210
  -3,434
  -3,669
  -3,915
  -4,173
  -4,444
  -4,728
  -5,026
  -5,338
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  807
  925
  1,058
  1,188
  1,316
  1,444
  1,572
  1,702
  1,834
  1,968
  2,105
  2,246
  2,392
  2,542
  2,697
  2,858
  3,026
  3,200
  3,381
  3,570
  3,767
  3,972
  4,187
  4,412
  4,646
  4,892
  5,149
  5,419
  5,701
  5,996
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  42
  85
  131
  178
  227
  279
  305
  362
  422
  484
  550
  618
  695
  785
  879
  978
  1,082
  1,191
  1,306
  1,427
  1,554
  1,687
  1,827
  1,974
  2,129
  2,291
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  807
  925
  1,058
  1,188
  1,358
  1,529
  1,703
  1,880
  2,061
  2,247
  2,410
  2,608
  2,814
  3,026
  3,247
  3,476
  3,721
  3,985
  4,260
  4,548
  4,849
  5,163
  5,493
  5,839
  6,200
  6,579
  6,976
  7,393
  7,830
  8,287
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  564
  572
  598
  622
  685
  748
  811
  875
  940
  1,006
  1,036
  1,105
  1,176
  1,250
  1,327
  1,406
  1,488
  1,574
  1,663
  1,756
  1,853
  1,954
  2,060
  2,170
  2,285
  2,406
  2,533
  2,665
  2,804
  2,949
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -169
  -207
  -237
  -266
  -295
  -323
  -352
  -381
  -411
  -441
  -472
  -503
  -536
  -569
  -604
  -640
  -695
  -785
  -879
  -978
  -1,082
  -1,191
  -1,306
  -1,427
  -1,554
  -1,687
  -1,827
  -1,974
  -2,129
  -2,291
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  396
  364
  361
  356
  390
  424
  459
  494
  529
  565
  564
  602
  641
  681
  723
  766
  793
  789
  784
  778
  771
  763
  753
  743
  732
  719
  706
  691
  675
  658
Discount rate, %
  9.70
  10.19
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.38
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.03
  39.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  361
  300
  266
  232
  224
  211
  195
  177
  158
  139
  112
  95
  79
  65
  52
  41
  30
  21
  15
  10
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.4
  98.8
  98.0
  97.0
  95.9
  94.7
  93.4
  91.9
  90.4
  88.7
  86.9
  85.0
  83.0
  80.9
  78.8
  76.6
  74.3
  72.0
  69.7
  67.4
  65.1
  62.8
  60.5
  58.2
  55.9

Entergy Corporation is a holding company. The Company is an integrated energy company engaged in electric power production and retail electric distribution operations. The Company operates through two business segments: Utility and Entergy Wholesale Commodities. The Utility segment includes the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electric power to retail and wholesale customers in areas of Arkansas, Mississippi, Texas and Louisiana, including the City of New Orleans and operates a natural gas distribution business. The Entergy Wholesale Commodities segment includes the ownership, operation and decommissioning of nuclear power plants located in the northern United States and the sale of the electric power produced by its operating plants to wholesale customers. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned and operated power plants with over 30,000 megawatts of aggregate electric generating capacity, including approximately 10,000 megawatts of nuclear-fueled capacity.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Entergy Corporation (ETR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -30.5
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -16.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 35.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 174.9%
Total Debt to Equity 184.4%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Total Capital -2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Equity -6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 13.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Operating Margin -8.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -12.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Net Profit Margin -5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 59.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.2%
Payout Ratio -112%

ETR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ETR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11009 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Entergy Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Entergy Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ETR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.7%, whose default value for ETR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Entergy Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Entergy Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ETR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ETR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Entergy Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Entergy Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ETR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ETR are equal to 284.2%.

Life of production assets of 15.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Entergy Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ETR is equal to -3.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8844.305 million for Entergy Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 189.626 million for Entergy Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Entergy Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $18.2 billion.

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