Intrinsic value of Etsy, Inc. - ETSY

Previous Close

$47.98

  Intrinsic Value

$138.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+189%

Previous close

$47.98

 
Intrinsic value

$138.70

 
Up/down potential

+189%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ETSY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  46.80
  42.62
  38.86
  35.47
  32.42
  29.68
  27.21
  24.99
  22.99
  21.19
  19.57
  18.12
  16.81
  15.62
  14.56
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.27
  10.65
  10.08
  9.57
  9.12
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
Revenue, $m
  887
  1,265
  1,756
  2,379
  3,150
  4,085
  5,197
  6,496
  7,989
  9,683
  11,578
  13,676
  15,974
  18,470
  21,160
  24,039
  27,103
  30,347
  33,769
  37,364
  41,131
  45,068
  49,177
  53,458
  57,913
  62,547
  67,363
  72,369
  77,570
  82,976
Variable operating expenses, $m
  536
  760
  1,050
  1,418
  1,874
  2,427
  3,084
  3,852
  4,735
  5,736
  6,844
  8,084
  9,443
  10,918
  12,508
  14,210
  16,021
  17,939
  19,962
  22,087
  24,314
  26,641
  29,070
  31,601
  34,234
  36,973
  39,821
  42,779
  45,854
  49,050
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  166
  169
  173
  177
  181
  185
  189
  193
  197
  201
  206
  210
  215
  220
  225
  229
  235
  240
  245
  250
  256
  261
  267
  273
  279
  285
  292
  298
  305
  311
Total operating expenses, $m
  702
  929
  1,223
  1,595
  2,055
  2,612
  3,273
  4,045
  4,932
  5,937
  7,050
  8,294
  9,658
  11,138
  12,733
  14,439
  16,256
  18,179
  20,207
  22,337
  24,570
  26,902
  29,337
  31,874
  34,513
  37,258
  40,113
  43,077
  46,159
  49,361
Operating income, $m
  185
  336
  533
  784
  1,095
  1,474
  1,924
  2,451
  3,058
  3,746
  4,528
  5,381
  6,316
  7,332
  8,427
  9,599
  10,847
  12,168
  13,562
  15,026
  16,561
  18,166
  19,840
  21,584
  23,400
  25,288
  27,251
  29,291
  31,411
  33,615
EBITDA, $m
  230
  395
  610
  884
  1,224
  1,637
  2,128
  2,703
  3,365
  4,116
  4,956
  5,887
  6,907
  8,015
  9,209
  10,488
  11,849
  13,290
  14,810
  16,408
  18,082
  19,832
  21,658
  23,560
  25,541
  27,600
  29,741
  31,967
  34,279
  36,683
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  37
  38
  61
  91
  129
  176
  233
  301
  381
  472
  576
  692
  820
  961
  1,114
  1,278
  1,455
  1,642
  1,841
  2,050
  2,270
  2,501
  2,742
  2,993
  3,255
  3,528
  3,812
  4,107
  4,413
  4,731
Earnings before tax, $m
  148
  298
  472
  693
  966
  1,298
  1,691
  2,150
  2,677
  3,273
  3,952
  4,689
  5,496
  6,371
  7,313
  8,321
  9,392
  10,526
  11,721
  12,976
  14,291
  15,665
  17,098
  18,591
  20,144
  21,760
  23,439
  25,185
  26,999
  28,884
Tax expense, $m
  40
  81
  128
  187
  261
  350
  457
  580
  723
  884
  1,067
  1,266
  1,484
  1,720
  1,975
  2,247
  2,536
  2,842
  3,165
  3,504
  3,859
  4,229
  4,616
  5,019
  5,439
  5,875
  6,329
  6,800
  7,290
  7,799
Net income, $m
  108
  218
  345
  506
  706
  947
  1,234
  1,569
  1,954
  2,389
  2,885
  3,423
  4,012
  4,651
  5,339
  6,074
  6,856
  7,684
  8,556
  9,473
  10,432
  11,435
  12,481
  13,571
  14,705
  15,885
  17,111
  18,385
  19,709
  21,085

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  558
  796
  1,106
  1,498
  1,984
  2,573
  3,273
  4,091
  5,031
  6,097
  7,291
  8,612
  10,059
  11,631
  13,325
  15,138
  17,067
  19,110
  21,265
  23,529
  25,901
  28,381
  30,968
  33,664
  36,469
  39,387
  42,420
  45,572
  48,848
  52,252
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  558
  796
  1,106
  1,498
  1,984
  2,573
  3,273
  4,091
  5,031
  6,097
  7,291
  8,612
  10,059
  11,631
  13,325
  15,138
  17,067
  19,110
  21,265
  23,529
  25,901
  28,381
  30,968
  33,664
  36,469
  39,387
  42,420
  45,572
  48,848
  52,252
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.590
  1.589
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
  1.588
Average production assets, $m
  216
  309
  428
  580
  769
  997
  1,268
  1,585
  1,949
  2,363
  2,825
  3,337
  3,898
  4,507
  5,163
  5,865
  6,613
  7,405
  8,240
  9,117
  10,036
  10,997
  11,999
  13,044
  14,131
  15,261
  16,437
  17,658
  18,927
  20,246
Working capital, $m
  -84
  -120
  -167
  -226
  -299
  -388
  -494
  -617
  -759
  -920
  -1,100
  -1,299
  -1,518
  -1,755
  -2,010
  -2,284
  -2,575
  -2,883
  -3,208
  -3,550
  -3,907
  -4,282
  -4,672
  -5,078
  -5,502
  -5,942
  -6,399
  -6,875
  -7,369
  -7,883
Total debt, $m
  348
  562
  841
  1,194
  1,631
  2,161
  2,791
  3,527
  4,373
  5,333
  6,407
  7,596
  8,899
  10,313
  11,838
  13,469
  15,206
  17,045
  18,984
  21,021
  23,156
  25,388
  27,717
  30,143
  32,668
  35,294
  38,023
  40,860
  43,808
  46,872
Total liabilities, $m
  503
  717
  995
  1,348
  1,785
  2,315
  2,945
  3,682
  4,528
  5,488
  6,562
  7,751
  9,053
  10,468
  11,992
  13,624
  15,360
  17,199
  19,138
  21,176
  23,311
  25,543
  27,871
  30,297
  32,822
  35,448
  38,178
  41,015
  43,963
  47,027
Total equity, $m
  56
  80
  111
  150
  198
  257
  327
  409
  503
  610
  729
  861
  1,006
  1,163
  1,332
  1,514
  1,707
  1,911
  2,126
  2,353
  2,590
  2,838
  3,097
  3,366
  3,647
  3,939
  4,242
  4,557
  4,885
  5,225
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  559
  797
  1,106
  1,498
  1,983
  2,572
  3,272
  4,091
  5,031
  6,098
  7,291
  8,612
  10,059
  11,631
  13,324
  15,138
  17,067
  19,110
  21,264
  23,529
  25,901
  28,381
  30,968
  33,663
  36,469
  39,387
  42,420
  45,572
  48,848
  52,252
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.230
  7.060
  7.600
  7.970
  8.220
  8.400
  8.530
  8.620
  8.690
  8.750
  8.790
  8.820
  8.850
  8.870
  8.880
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  108
  218
  345
  506
  706
  947
  1,234
  1,569
  1,954
  2,389
  2,885
  3,423
  4,012
  4,651
  5,339
  6,074
  6,856
  7,684
  8,556
  9,473
  10,432
  11,435
  12,481
  13,571
  14,705
  15,885
  17,111
  18,385
  19,709
  21,085
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  59
  77
  100
  128
  163
  204
  252
  307
  370
  428
  506
  591
  683
  782
  889
  1,002
  1,122
  1,248
  1,381
  1,521
  1,666
  1,818
  1,976
  2,141
  2,312
  2,490
  2,675
  2,868
  3,068
Funds from operations, $m
  153
  276
  422
  606
  834
  1,110
  1,438
  1,821
  2,261
  2,759
  3,313
  3,929
  4,603
  5,334
  6,121
  6,963
  7,858
  8,806
  9,805
  10,854
  11,953
  13,101
  14,299
  15,547
  16,846
  18,197
  19,601
  21,060
  22,577
  24,153
Change in working capital, $m
  -27
  -36
  -47
  -59
  -73
  -89
  -106
  -123
  -142
  -161
  -180
  -199
  -218
  -237
  -256
  -274
  -291
  -308
  -325
  -342
  -358
  -374
  -390
  -407
  -423
  -440
  -458
  -476
  -494
  -514
Cash from operations, $m
  180
  312
  468
  665
  907
  1,199
  1,544
  1,945
  2,403
  2,920
  3,493
  4,128
  4,821
  5,571
  6,376
  7,236
  8,149
  9,114
  10,130
  11,196
  12,311
  13,475
  14,690
  15,954
  17,270
  18,637
  20,059
  21,536
  23,071
  24,666
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -33
  -47
  -65
  -88
  -116
  -151
  -192
  -240
  -295
  -358
  -428
  -506
  -591
  -683
  -782
  -889
  -1,002
  -1,122
  -1,248
  -1,381
  -1,521
  -1,666
  -1,818
  -1,976
  -2,141
  -2,312
  -2,490
  -2,675
  -2,868
New CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -92
  -120
  -152
  -188
  -228
  -271
  -317
  -364
  -413
  -462
  -512
  -561
  -609
  -656
  -702
  -748
  -792
  -835
  -877
  -919
  -961
  -1,002
  -1,044
  -1,087
  -1,131
  -1,175
  -1,221
  -1,269
  -1,319
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -125
  -167
  -217
  -276
  -344
  -422
  -509
  -604
  -708
  -820
  -940
  -1,067
  -1,200
  -1,339
  -1,484
  -1,637
  -1,794
  -1,957
  -2,125
  -2,300
  -2,482
  -2,668
  -2,862
  -3,063
  -3,272
  -3,487
  -3,711
  -3,944
  -4,187
Free cash flow, $m
  89
  187
  302
  448
  631
  854
  1,122
  1,436
  1,799
  2,212
  2,673
  3,188
  3,755
  4,371
  5,037
  5,752
  6,513
  7,321
  8,173
  9,070
  10,010
  10,994
  12,021
  13,092
  14,206
  15,366
  16,571
  17,824
  19,126
  20,479
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  214
  278
  353
  437
  530
  630
  736
  847
  960
  1,074
  1,189
  1,303
  1,415
  1,524
  1,632
  1,736
  1,839
  1,939
  2,038
  2,135
  2,232
  2,329
  2,426
  2,525
  2,626
  2,730
  2,837
  2,948
  3,064
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  69
  214
  278
  353
  437
  530
  630
  736
  847
  960
  1,074
  1,189
  1,303
  1,415
  1,524
  1,632
  1,736
  1,839
  1,939
  2,038
  2,135
  2,232
  2,329
  2,426
  2,525
  2,626
  2,730
  2,837
  2,948
  3,064
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  158
  402
  580
  801
  1,068
  1,384
  1,752
  2,172
  2,645
  3,171
  3,747
  4,377
  5,057
  5,786
  6,562
  7,383
  8,250
  9,159
  10,112
  11,107
  12,145
  13,226
  14,350
  15,518
  16,731
  17,992
  19,301
  20,661
  22,074
  23,543
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -173
  -24
  -31
  -39
  -49
  -59
  -70
  -82
  -94
  -107
  -119
  -132
  -145
  -157
  -169
  -181
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -303
  -315
  -328
  -340
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  518
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  504
  378
  549
  762
  1,020
  1,326
  1,682
  2,090
  2,551
  3,065
  3,628
  4,245
  4,912
  5,629
  6,392
  7,202
  8,057
  8,955
  9,897
  10,881
  11,908
  12,978
  14,091
  15,248
  16,451
  17,700
  18,998
  20,346
  21,747
  23,203
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  483
  346
  478
  627
  790
  962
  1,136
  1,306
  1,465
  1,607
  1,723
  1,811
  1,868
  1,890
  1,877
  1,830
  1,753
  1,649
  1,524
  1,383
  1,232
  1,077
  924
  777
  640
  516
  408
  315
  237
  175
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Etsy, Inc. (Etsy) operates a marketplace where people around the world connect, both online and offline, to make, sell and buy goods. The Company offers a range of seller services and tools that help entrepreneurs start, grow and manage their businesses. The Company's community includes Etsy sellers, Etsy buyers, Etsy employees, its partners and investors. As of December 31, 2016, its platform connected 1.7 million active Etsy sellers and 28.6 million active Etsy buyers. Etsy sellers join its community to participate in its markets to express their creativity. Etsy sellers range from hobbyists to professional merchants, and have a range of personal and professional goals. Its supports a group of artists, makers, designers and collectors from around the world. Its services platform includes seller services, seller tools and education. The Company's seller services include Direct Checkout, Promoted Listings, Shipping Labels and Pattern by Etsy.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -185.5
Price to Sales 15.2
Price to Book 16.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 118.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -5564.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 33.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 128.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 40
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 1.4%
Total Debt to Equity 3.5%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.8%
Return On Total Capital -8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.3%
Return On Equity -8.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.4%
EBITDA Margin 6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Net Profit Margin -8.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.9%
Effective Tax Rate -900%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -347.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

ETSY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ETSY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $604 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Etsy, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Etsy, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ETSY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 46.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ETSY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Etsy, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Etsy, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ETSY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $162 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ETSY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.8% for Etsy, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Etsy, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ETSY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ETSY are equal to 24.4%.

Life of production assets of 6.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Etsy, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ETSY is equal to -9.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $400.898 million for Etsy, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 119.617 million for Etsy, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Etsy, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.7 billion.

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