Intrinsic value of Etsy - ETSY

Previous Close

$16.36

  Intrinsic Value

$12.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-24%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$16.36

 
Intrinsic value

$12.50

 
Up/down potential

-24%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ETSY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  33.21
  20.00
  18.50
  17.15
  15.94
  14.84
  13.86
  12.97
  12.17
  11.46
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.24
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
Revenue, $m
  365
  438
  519
  608
  705
  810
  922
  1,041
  1,168
  1,302
  1,443
  1,590
  1,745
  1,906
  2,074
  2,249
  2,430
  2,619
  2,816
  3,020
  3,232
  3,453
  3,682
  3,921
  4,169
  4,427
  4,696
  4,977
  5,269
  5,574
  5,892
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  346
  410
  479
  555
  637
  725
  818
  917
  1,022
  1,132
  1,244
  1,365
  1,491
  1,622
  1,759
  1,901
  2,049
  2,202
  2,362
  2,528
  2,701
  2,880
  3,067
  3,261
  3,463
  3,673
  3,892
  4,121
  4,359
  4,608
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  60
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
Total operating expenses, $m
  347
  406
  472
  543
  620
  704
  793
  888
  989
  1,096
  1,208
  1,321
  1,444
  1,572
  1,705
  1,844
  1,989
  2,139
  2,294
  2,456
  2,625
  2,800
  2,982
  3,171
  3,368
  3,572
  3,785
  4,007
  4,239
  4,480
  4,732
Operating income, $m
  18
  31
  47
  65
  85
  106
  129
  153
  179
  206
  235
  269
  301
  334
  368
  404
  442
  481
  521
  564
  608
  653
  701
  750
  802
  855
  911
  969
  1,030
  1,094
  1,160
EBITDA, $m
  41
  57
  77
  99
  123
  150
  178
  208
  241
  275
  310
  348
  387
  429
  471
  516
  563
  611
  661
  714
  768
  825
  884
  945
  1,009
  1,075
  1,144
  1,217
  1,292
  1,371
  1,453
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  1
  8
  16
  25
  35
  45
  57
  69
  81
  95
  109
  124
  139
  155
  172
  190
  208
  227
  247
  267
  289
  311
  334
  358
  383
  409
  436
  464
  493
  524
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  31
  39
  49
  60
  71
  83
  96
  110
  125
  140
  160
  177
  195
  213
  232
  252
  273
  294
  317
  340
  365
  390
  416
  444
  473
  502
  534
  566
  601
  636
Tax expense, $m
  27
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
Net income, $m
  -30
  22
  29
  36
  44
  52
  61
  70
  81
  91
  102
  117
  129
  142
  155
  169
  184
  199
  215
  231
  248
  266
  285
  304
  324
  345
  367
  390
  413
  438
  464

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  282
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  581
  359
  425
  498
  577
  663
  755
  853
  957
  1,066
  1,182
  1,302
  1,429
  1,561
  1,698
  1,842
  1,991
  2,145
  2,306
  2,474
  2,647
  2,828
  3,016
  3,211
  3,414
  3,626
  3,846
  4,076
  4,315
  4,565
  4,825
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  299
  359
  425
  498
  577
  663
  755
  853
  957
  1,066
  1,182
  1,302
  1,429
  1,561
  1,698
  1,842
  1,991
  2,145
  2,306
  2,474
  2,647
  2,828
  3,016
  3,211
  3,414
  3,626
  3,846
  4,076
  4,315
  4,565
  4,825
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.221
  1.220
  1.221
  1.221
  1.222
  1.222
  1.221
  1.220
  1.220
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.220
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
  1.221
Average production assets, $m
  122
  146
  173
  202
  235
  270
  307
  347
  389
  434
  480
  530
  581
  635
  691
  749
  809
  872
  938
  1,006
  1,076
  1,150
  1,226
  1,306
  1,388
  1,474
  1,564
  1,657
  1,755
  1,856
  1,962
Working capital, $m
  287
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  52
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  129
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
Total debt, $m
  12
  51
  102
  157
  218
  284
  354
  429
  509
  593
  681
  774
  870
  972
  1,077
  1,187
  1,301
  1,419
  1,543
  1,671
  1,804
  1,942
  2,086
  2,236
  2,391
  2,553
  2,722
  2,898
  3,081
  3,273
  3,472
Total liabilities, $m
  236
  275
  326
  381
  442
  508
  578
  653
  733
  817
  905
  998
  1,094
  1,196
  1,301
  1,411
  1,525
  1,643
  1,767
  1,895
  2,028
  2,166
  2,310
  2,460
  2,615
  2,777
  2,946
  3,122
  3,305
  3,497
  3,696
Total equity, $m
  345
  84
  99
  117
  135
  155
  177
  200
  224
  250
  276
  305
  334
  365
  397
  431
  466
  502
  540
  579
  619
  662
  706
  751
  799
  848
  900
  954
  1,010
  1,068
  1,129
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  581
  359
  425
  498
  577
  663
  755
  853
  957
  1,067
  1,181
  1,303
  1,428
  1,561
  1,698
  1,842
  1,991
  2,145
  2,307
  2,474
  2,647
  2,828
  3,016
  3,211
  3,414
  3,625
  3,846
  4,076
  4,315
  4,565
  4,825
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.035
  0.600
  1.020
  1.350
  1.620
  1.830
  2.010
  2.150
  2.270
  2.380
  2.460
  2.540
  2.600
  2.660
  2.710
  2.750
  2.790
  2.830
  2.860
  2.890
  2.910
  2.940
  2.960
  2.980
  2.990
  3.010
  3.020
  3.040
  3.050
  3.060
  3.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.211
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234
  0.234

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -30
  22
  29
  36
  44
  52
  61
  70
  81
  91
  102
  117
  129
  142
  155
  169
  184
  199
  215
  231
  248
  266
  285
  304
  324
  345
  367
  390
  413
  438
  464
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  25
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  62
  68
  75
  79
  87
  95
  103
  112
  121
  130
  140
  150
  161
  172
  183
  195
  207
  220
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
Funds from operations, $m
  46
  48
  58
  70
  82
  96
  110
  126
  142
  160
  178
  196
  216
  237
  259
  281
  305
  329
  355
  381
  409
  438
  468
  499
  531
  565
  600
  637
  675
  715
  757
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  47
  45
  55
  67
  79
  92
  107
  122
  138
  155
  173
  191
  211
  231
  253
  275
  299
  323
  348
  375
  402
  430
  460
  491
  523
  556
  591
  628
  666
  705
  747
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -150
  -161
  -172
  -183
  -195
  -207
  -220
  -233
  -247
  -262
  -277
New CAPEX, $m
  -48
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -135
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -70
  -77
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -208
  -221
  -234
  -248
  -262
  -278
  -293
  -310
  -326
  -344
  -364
  -383
Free cash flow, $m
  -88
  3
  7
  11
  17
  22
  29
  36
  44
  52
  62
  70
  80
  91
  102
  114
  126
  139
  153
  167
  181
  196
  212
  228
  246
  263
  282
  301
  321
  342
  364
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  200
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  200
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -90
  49
  58
  67
  77
  88
  99
  111
  124
  136
  150
  163
  177
  192
  208
  224
  241
  258
  276
  295
  314
  335
  356
  378
  401
  425
  450
  477
  504
  533
  563
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  275
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  310
  42
  50
  59
  68
  78
  88
  99
  111
  123
  134
  148
  161
  176
  190
  206
  222
  238
  256
  274
  292
  312
  332
  354
  376
  399
  423
  448
  475
  502
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  297
  38
  44
  48
  53
  57
  60
  62
  64
  64
  64
  63
  61
  59
  56
  52
  48
  44
  39
  35
  30
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Etsy, Inc. (Etsy) operates a marketplace where people around the world connect, both online and offline, to make, sell and buy goods. The Company offers a range of seller services and tools that help entrepreneurs start, grow and manage their businesses. The Company's community includes Etsy sellers, Etsy buyers, Etsy employees, its partners and investors. As of December 31, 2016, its platform connected 1.7 million active Etsy sellers and 28.6 million active Etsy buyers. Etsy sellers join its community to participate in its markets to express their creativity. Etsy sellers range from hobbyists to professional merchants, and have a range of personal and professional goals. Its supports a group of artists, makers, designers and collectors from around the world. Its services platform includes seller services, seller tools and education. The Company's seller services include Direct Checkout, Promoted Listings, Shipping Labels and Pattern by Etsy.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Etsy (ETSY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -63.2
Price to Sales 5.2
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 40.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -1897.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 33.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 128.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 40
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 1.4%
Total Debt to Equity 3.5%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.8%
Return On Total Capital -8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.3%
Return On Equity -8.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.4%
EBITDA Margin 6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Net Profit Margin -8.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.9%
Effective Tax Rate -900%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -347.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

ETSY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ETSY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $365 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Etsy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Etsy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ETSY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ETSY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Etsy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Etsy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ETSY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $59 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ETSY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16% for Etsy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Etsy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ETSY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ETSY are equal to 33.3%.

Life of production assets of 6.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Etsy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ETSY is equal to 3.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $345 million for Etsy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 117.008 million for Etsy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Etsy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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▶ Today's Top Supply Chain and Logistics News From WSJ   [06:47AM  The Wall Street Journal]
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▶ Etsy Crafting Intermediate Term Breakout   [12:46PM  TheStreet.com]
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▶ Why Etsy Was Ripe for Activist Investors   [May-26-17 07:38AM  Motley Fool]
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Financial statements of ETSY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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