Intrinsic value of Envision Healthcare - EVHC

Previous Close

$45.99

  Intrinsic Value

$85.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+87%

Previous close

$45.99

 
Intrinsic value

$85.90

 
Up/down potential

+87%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EVHC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
Revenue, $m
  8,328
  8,856
  9,407
  9,980
  10,577
  11,200
  11,849
  12,526
  13,234
  13,972
  14,744
  15,551
  16,394
  17,276
  18,199
  19,165
  20,177
  21,236
  22,346
  23,508
  24,727
  26,004
  27,342
  28,746
  30,217
  31,761
  33,380
  35,078
  36,859
  38,728
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,447
  7,849
  8,267
  8,702
  9,156
  9,629
  10,122
  10,637
  11,174
  11,736
  11,202
  11,814
  12,455
  13,125
  13,827
  14,561
  15,329
  16,134
  16,977
  17,860
  18,786
  19,756
  20,773
  21,839
  22,958
  24,130
  25,360
  26,650
  28,004
  29,424
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,447
  7,849
  8,267
  8,702
  9,156
  9,629
  10,122
  10,637
  11,174
  11,736
  11,202
  11,814
  12,455
  13,125
  13,827
  14,561
  15,329
  16,134
  16,977
  17,860
  18,786
  19,756
  20,773
  21,839
  22,958
  24,130
  25,360
  26,650
  28,004
  29,424
Operating income, $m
  881
  1,008
  1,140
  1,278
  1,421
  1,571
  1,727
  1,889
  2,059
  2,237
  3,542
  3,736
  3,939
  4,151
  4,372
  4,605
  4,848
  5,102
  5,369
  5,648
  5,941
  6,248
  6,569
  6,906
  7,260
  7,631
  8,020
  8,428
  8,856
  9,305
EBITDA, $m
  2,238
  2,380
  2,528
  2,682
  2,842
  3,010
  3,184
  3,366
  3,556
  3,755
  3,962
  4,179
  4,405
  4,642
  4,890
  5,150
  5,422
  5,706
  6,005
  6,317
  6,644
  6,988
  7,347
  7,724
  8,120
  8,535
  8,970
  9,426
  9,905
  10,407
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  341
  376
  413
  451
  490
  532
  575
  620
  667
  716
  767
  821
  877
  935
  996
  1,060
  1,127
  1,197
  1,271
  1,348
  1,428
  1,513
  1,601
  1,694
  1,792
  1,894
  2,001
  2,113
  2,231
  2,354
Earnings before tax, $m
  540
  632
  727
  827
  931
  1,039
  1,152
  1,269
  1,392
  1,521
  2,775
  2,915
  3,062
  3,216
  3,376
  3,544
  3,720
  3,905
  4,098
  4,300
  4,512
  4,735
  4,968
  5,212
  5,468
  5,737
  6,019
  6,315
  6,625
  6,951
Tax expense, $m
  146
  171
  196
  223
  251
  280
  311
  343
  376
  411
  749
  787
  827
  868
  912
  957
  1,004
  1,054
  1,106
  1,161
  1,218
  1,278
  1,341
  1,407
  1,476
  1,549
  1,625
  1,705
  1,789
  1,877
Net income, $m
  394
  461
  531
  604
  679
  758
  841
  927
  1,016
  1,110
  2,026
  2,128
  2,235
  2,347
  2,465
  2,587
  2,716
  2,850
  2,991
  3,139
  3,294
  3,456
  3,626
  3,805
  3,992
  4,188
  4,394
  4,610
  4,836
  5,074

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  17,643
  18,763
  19,930
  21,144
  22,409
  23,728
  25,104
  26,539
  28,037
  29,602
  31,237
  32,946
  34,733
  36,602
  38,558
  40,605
  42,748
  44,992
  47,343
  49,806
  52,387
  55,093
  57,929
  60,902
  64,020
  67,290
  70,720
  74,317
  78,092
  82,051
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  17,643
  18,763
  19,930
  21,144
  22,409
  23,728
  25,104
  26,539
  28,037
  29,602
  31,237
  32,946
  34,733
  36,602
  38,558
  40,605
  42,748
  44,992
  47,343
  49,806
  52,387
  55,093
  57,929
  60,902
  64,020
  67,290
  70,720
  74,317
  78,092
  82,051
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
  0.472
Average production assets, $m
  6,304
  6,704
  7,121
  7,555
  8,007
  8,478
  8,970
  9,483
  10,018
  10,577
  11,161
  11,772
  12,410
  13,078
  13,777
  14,508
  15,274
  16,076
  16,916
  17,796
  18,718
  19,685
  20,698
  21,761
  22,875
  24,043
  25,268
  26,554
  27,902
  29,317
Working capital, $m
  3,289
  3,498
  3,716
  3,942
  4,178
  4,424
  4,680
  4,948
  5,227
  5,519
  5,824
  6,142
  6,476
  6,824
  7,189
  7,570
  7,970
  8,388
  8,827
  9,286
  9,767
  10,271
  10,800
  11,355
  11,936
  12,546
  13,185
  13,856
  14,559
  15,298
Total debt, $m
  6,962
  7,641
  8,347
  9,083
  9,850
  10,649
  11,483
  12,353
  13,261
  14,209
  15,200
  16,235
  17,318
  18,451
  19,636
  20,876
  22,175
  23,535
  24,960
  26,452
  28,017
  29,656
  31,375
  33,177
  35,066
  37,048
  39,126
  41,306
  43,593
  45,993
Total liabilities, $m
  10,692
  11,371
  12,077
  12,813
  13,580
  14,379
  15,213
  16,083
  16,991
  17,939
  18,930
  19,965
  21,048
  22,181
  23,366
  24,606
  25,905
  27,265
  28,690
  30,183
  31,747
  33,386
  35,105
  36,907
  38,796
  40,778
  42,856
  45,036
  47,323
  49,723
Total equity, $m
  6,951
  7,393
  7,852
  8,331
  8,829
  9,349
  9,891
  10,456
  11,047
  11,663
  12,307
  12,981
  13,685
  14,421
  15,192
  15,998
  16,843
  17,727
  18,653
  19,624
  20,641
  21,706
  22,824
  23,995
  25,224
  26,512
  27,864
  29,281
  30,768
  32,328
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  17,643
  18,764
  19,929
  21,144
  22,409
  23,728
  25,104
  26,539
  28,038
  29,602
  31,237
  32,946
  34,733
  36,602
  38,558
  40,604
  42,748
  44,992
  47,343
  49,807
  52,388
  55,092
  57,929
  60,902
  64,020
  67,290
  70,720
  74,317
  78,091
  82,051
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.000
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  394
  461
  531
  604
  679
  758
  841
  927
  1,016
  1,110
  2,026
  2,128
  2,235
  2,347
  2,465
  2,587
  2,716
  2,850
  2,991
  3,139
  3,294
  3,456
  3,626
  3,805
  3,992
  4,188
  4,394
  4,610
  4,836
  5,074
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,357
  1,372
  1,388
  1,404
  1,421
  1,439
  1,457
  1,477
  1,497
  1,518
  420
  443
  467
  492
  518
  545
  574
  604
  636
  669
  704
  740
  778
  818
  860
  904
  950
  998
  1,049
  1,102
Funds from operations, $m
  1,751
  1,833
  1,919
  2,008
  2,100
  2,197
  2,298
  2,403
  2,513
  2,628
  2,445
  2,571
  2,702
  2,839
  2,983
  3,133
  3,290
  3,455
  3,627
  3,808
  3,998
  4,196
  4,405
  4,623
  4,852
  5,092
  5,344
  5,608
  5,885
  6,176
Change in working capital, $m
  201
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  256
  268
  279
  292
  305
  319
  333
  348
  365
  382
  400
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  529
  554
  581
  610
  639
  671
  704
  738
Cash from operations, $m
  1,550
  1,624
  1,701
  1,781
  1,865
  1,951
  2,042
  2,136
  2,234
  2,336
  2,141
  2,252
  2,369
  2,491
  2,618
  2,751
  2,890
  3,036
  3,189
  3,349
  3,516
  3,692
  3,876
  4,069
  4,271
  4,482
  4,704
  4,937
  5,182
  5,438
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -222
  -237
  -252
  -268
  -284
  -301
  -319
  -337
  -356
  -377
  -398
  -420
  -443
  -467
  -492
  -518
  -545
  -574
  -604
  -636
  -669
  -704
  -740
  -778
  -818
  -860
  -904
  -950
  -998
  -1,049
New CAPEX, $m
  -387
  -400
  -417
  -434
  -452
  -471
  -491
  -513
  -535
  -559
  -584
  -611
  -638
  -668
  -699
  -731
  -766
  -802
  -840
  -880
  -922
  -967
  -1,013
  -1,062
  -1,114
  -1,168
  -1,225
  -1,285
  -1,349
  -1,415
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -609
  -637
  -669
  -702
  -736
  -772
  -810
  -850
  -891
  -936
  -982
  -1,031
  -1,081
  -1,135
  -1,191
  -1,249
  -1,311
  -1,376
  -1,444
  -1,516
  -1,591
  -1,671
  -1,753
  -1,840
  -1,932
  -2,028
  -2,129
  -2,235
  -2,347
  -2,464
Free cash flow, $m
  941
  987
  1,033
  1,080
  1,128
  1,179
  1,231
  1,286
  1,342
  1,400
  1,159
  1,222
  1,288
  1,356
  1,427
  1,502
  1,579
  1,660
  1,745
  1,833
  1,925
  2,022
  2,122
  2,228
  2,338
  2,454
  2,575
  2,702
  2,835
  2,974
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  646
  679
  707
  736
  767
  799
  834
  870
  908
  948
  991
  1,036
  1,083
  1,133
  1,185
  1,240
  1,299
  1,360
  1,425
  1,493
  1,564
  1,639
  1,719
  1,802
  1,889
  1,982
  2,078
  2,180
  2,287
  2,400
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  676
  679
  707
  736
  767
  799
  834
  870
  908
  948
  991
  1,036
  1,083
  1,133
  1,185
  1,240
  1,299
  1,360
  1,425
  1,493
  1,564
  1,639
  1,719
  1,802
  1,889
  1,982
  2,078
  2,180
  2,287
  2,400
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,618
  1,666
  1,739
  1,816
  1,895
  1,978
  2,065
  2,155
  2,250
  2,349
  2,150
  2,258
  2,371
  2,489
  2,613
  2,742
  2,878
  3,020
  3,169
  3,326
  3,489
  3,661
  3,841
  4,030
  4,228
  4,436
  4,654
  4,882
  5,122
  5,374
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -424
  -441
  -459
  -478
  -499
  -520
  -542
  -566
  -590
  -617
  -644
  -673
  -704
  -736
  -771
  -807
  -844
  -884
  -926
  -970
  -1,017
  -1,066
  -1,117
  -1,172
  -1,228
  -1,288
  -1,351
  -1,417
  -1,487
  -1,560
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,193
  1,225
  1,280
  1,337
  1,397
  1,459
  1,523
  1,590
  1,660
  1,732
  1,505
  1,584
  1,667
  1,752
  1,842
  1,936
  2,034
  2,136
  2,243
  2,355
  2,472
  2,595
  2,724
  2,858
  2,999
  3,147
  3,302
  3,465
  3,635
  3,814
Discount rate, %
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,105
  1,042
  993
  938
  878
  814
  747
  677
  607
  538
  391
  340
  291
  245
  203
  165
  132
  103
  79
  59
  43
  31
  22
  15
  10
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5

Envision Healthcare Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides physician-led, ambulatory surgery center management, post-acute care, and medical transportation services in the United States. Its physician-led services encompass providers at 780 hospitals in 45 states that include emergency department and hospitalist services, anesthesiology, radiology, and womenÂ’s/childrenÂ’s services, as well as general surgery and office-based medicine services. The company also offers ambulatory surgical care services with medical specialties ranging from gastroenterology to ophthalmology and orthopedics. As of December 5, 2016, it owned and operated 260 surgery centers and 1 surgical hospital in 35 states and the District of Columbia. In addition, the company provides post-acute care services through an array of clinical professionals and integrated technologies. Further, it offers healthcare transportation services in 39 states and the District of Columbia. The company offers its clinical solutions for health systems, payors, providers, and patients. Envision Healthcare Corporation was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Envision Healthcare (EVHC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

EVHC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EVHC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7819.3 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Envision Healthcare. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Envision Healthcare. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EVHC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for EVHC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Envision Healthcare, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Envision Healthcare.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EVHC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EVHC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Envision Healthcare.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Envision Healthcare. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EVHC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EVHC are equal to 75.7%.

Life of production assets of 26.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Envision Healthcare operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EVHC is equal to 39.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6527.1 million for Envision Healthcare - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 121.39 million for Envision Healthcare is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Envision Healthcare at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.6 billion.

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