Intrinsic value of Evercore Cl A - EVR

Previous Close

$76.82

  Intrinsic Value

$721.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+839%

Previous close

$76.82

 
Intrinsic value

$721.05

 
Up/down potential

+839%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as EVR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EVR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.10
  19.49
  18.04
  16.74
  15.56
  14.51
  13.56
  12.70
  11.93
  11.24
  10.61
  10.05
  9.55
  9.09
  8.68
  8.31
  7.98
  7.69
  7.42
  7.17
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.28
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
Revenue, $m
  2,064
  2,466
  2,911
  3,398
  3,927
  4,497
  5,107
  5,755
  6,442
  7,166
  7,926
  8,723
  9,556
  10,425
  11,330
  12,272
  13,252
  14,270
  15,329
  16,428
  17,571
  18,759
  19,995
  21,280
  22,617
  24,009
  25,460
  26,971
  28,547
  30,191
Variable operating expenses, $m
  752
  896
  1,055
  1,229
  1,417
  1,621
  1,838
  2,070
  2,315
  2,573
  2,830
  3,114
  3,411
  3,721
  4,045
  4,381
  4,731
  5,094
  5,472
  5,865
  6,273
  6,697
  7,138
  7,596
  8,074
  8,571
  9,088
  9,628
  10,191
  10,777
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  681
  696
  711
  727
  743
  759
  776
  793
  810
  828
  846
  865
  884
  903
  923
  943
  964
  985
  1,007
  1,029
  1,052
  1,075
  1,099
  1,123
  1,147
  1,173
  1,199
  1,225
  1,252
  1,279
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,433
  1,592
  1,766
  1,956
  2,160
  2,380
  2,614
  2,863
  3,125
  3,401
  3,676
  3,979
  4,295
  4,624
  4,968
  5,324
  5,695
  6,079
  6,479
  6,894
  7,325
  7,772
  8,237
  8,719
  9,221
  9,744
  10,287
  10,853
  11,443
  12,056
Operating income, $m
  631
  875
  1,146
  1,443
  1,767
  2,117
  2,493
  2,893
  3,317
  3,764
  4,251
  4,744
  5,261
  5,800
  6,362
  6,948
  7,557
  8,191
  8,850
  9,535
  10,247
  10,988
  11,759
  12,561
  13,396
  14,266
  15,173
  16,118
  17,104
  18,134
EBITDA, $m
  666
  914
  1,189
  1,492
  1,821
  2,176
  2,557
  2,964
  3,394
  3,849
  4,327
  4,829
  5,353
  5,901
  6,472
  7,066
  7,685
  8,329
  8,998
  9,693
  10,417
  11,169
  11,952
  12,766
  13,614
  14,498
  15,419
  16,379
  17,380
  18,426
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  11
  23
  35
  50
  65
  82
  101
  120
  141
  163
  186
  210
  236
  263
  290
  319
  350
  381
  414
  448
  483
  519
  557
  597
  638
  681
  726
  772
  821
  871
Earnings before tax, $m
  620
  852
  1,110
  1,394
  1,702
  2,035
  2,392
  2,773
  3,176
  3,602
  4,065
  4,534
  5,025
  5,538
  6,072
  6,628
  7,207
  7,810
  8,436
  9,087
  9,764
  10,468
  11,201
  11,964
  12,758
  13,585
  14,447
  15,346
  16,284
  17,263
Tax expense, $m
  167
  230
  300
  376
  460
  549
  646
  749
  858
  972
  1,097
  1,224
  1,357
  1,495
  1,639
  1,790
  1,946
  2,109
  2,278
  2,454
  2,636
  2,826
  3,024
  3,230
  3,445
  3,668
  3,901
  4,143
  4,397
  4,661
Net income, $m
  453
  622
  810
  1,017
  1,243
  1,486
  1,746
  2,024
  2,318
  2,629
  2,967
  3,310
  3,668
  4,042
  4,433
  4,839
  5,261
  5,701
  6,158
  6,634
  7,128
  7,642
  8,177
  8,733
  9,313
  9,917
  10,546
  11,203
  11,887
  12,602

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,515
  1,811
  2,137
  2,495
  2,883
  3,302
  3,749
  4,226
  4,730
  5,261
  5,820
  6,405
  7,016
  7,654
  8,319
  9,010
  9,730
  10,477
  11,254
  12,062
  12,901
  13,773
  14,680
  15,624
  16,606
  17,628
  18,693
  19,802
  20,959
  22,166
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,515
  1,811
  2,137
  2,495
  2,883
  3,302
  3,749
  4,226
  4,730
  5,261
  5,820
  6,405
  7,016
  7,654
  8,319
  9,010
  9,730
  10,477
  11,254
  12,062
  12,901
  13,773
  14,680
  15,624
  16,606
  17,628
  18,693
  19,802
  20,959
  22,166
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
  1.362
Average production assets, $m
  178
  212
  250
  292
  338
  387
  439
  495
  554
  616
  682
  750
  822
  897
  974
  1,055
  1,140
  1,227
  1,318
  1,413
  1,511
  1,613
  1,720
  1,830
  1,945
  2,065
  2,190
  2,320
  2,455
  2,596
Working capital, $m
  -246
  -293
  -346
  -404
  -467
  -535
  -608
  -685
  -767
  -853
  -943
  -1,038
  -1,137
  -1,241
  -1,348
  -1,460
  -1,577
  -1,698
  -1,824
  -1,955
  -2,091
  -2,232
  -2,379
  -2,532
  -2,691
  -2,857
  -3,030
  -3,210
  -3,397
  -3,593
Total debt, $m
  419
  657
  921
  1,210
  1,524
  1,862
  2,224
  2,609
  3,016
  3,445
  3,897
  4,369
  4,863
  5,379
  5,916
  6,475
  7,056
  7,660
  8,288
  8,940
  9,618
  10,323
  11,056
  11,818
  12,612
  13,438
  14,298
  15,195
  16,130
  17,105
Total liabilities, $m
  1,224
  1,463
  1,727
  2,016
  2,330
  2,668
  3,030
  3,414
  3,822
  4,251
  4,702
  5,175
  5,669
  6,184
  6,721
  7,280
  7,862
  8,466
  9,094
  9,746
  10,424
  11,129
  11,862
  12,624
  13,418
  14,243
  15,104
  16,000
  16,935
  17,910
Total equity, $m
  291
  348
  410
  479
  554
  634
  720
  811
  908
  1,010
  1,117
  1,230
  1,347
  1,470
  1,597
  1,730
  1,868
  2,012
  2,161
  2,316
  2,477
  2,644
  2,819
  3,000
  3,188
  3,385
  3,589
  3,802
  4,024
  4,256
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,515
  1,811
  2,137
  2,495
  2,884
  3,302
  3,750
  4,225
  4,730
  5,261
  5,819
  6,405
  7,016
  7,654
  8,318
  9,010
  9,730
  10,478
  11,255
  12,062
  12,901
  13,773
  14,681
  15,624
  16,606
  17,628
  18,693
  19,802
  20,959
  22,166
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.440
  1.890
  2.250
  2.530
  2.750
  2.940
  3.090
  3.220
  3.320
  3.410
  3.490
  3.550
  3.610
  3.660
  3.700
  3.740
  3.780
  3.810
  3.840
  3.860
  3.880
  3.900
  3.920
  3.940
  3.960
  3.970
  3.980
  4.000
  4.010
  4.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  453
  622
  810
  1,017
  1,243
  1,486
  1,746
  2,024
  2,318
  2,629
  2,967
  3,310
  3,668
  4,042
  4,433
  4,839
  5,261
  5,701
  6,158
  6,634
  7,128
  7,642
  8,177
  8,733
  9,313
  9,917
  10,546
  11,203
  11,887
  12,602
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  77
  84
  92
  101
  109
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  276
  292
Funds from operations, $m
  488
  661
  854
  1,066
  1,296
  1,544
  1,811
  2,095
  2,396
  2,714
  3,044
  3,394
  3,761
  4,143
  4,542
  4,957
  5,389
  5,839
  6,306
  6,792
  7,298
  7,823
  8,370
  8,939
  9,532
  10,149
  10,792
  11,463
  12,163
  12,894
Change in working capital, $m
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
Cash from operations, $m
  531
  709
  907
  1,123
  1,359
  1,612
  1,884
  2,172
  2,478
  2,800
  3,134
  3,489
  3,860
  4,247
  4,650
  5,069
  5,506
  5,960
  6,432
  6,923
  7,434
  7,965
  8,517
  9,092
  9,691
  10,315
  10,965
  11,643
  12,351
  13,089
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -77
  -84
  -92
  -101
  -109
  -119
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -232
  -246
  -261
  -276
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -141
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -47
  -55
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -87
  -95
  -105
  -115
  -124
  -134
  -146
  -156
  -167
  -179
  -190
  -203
  -216
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -287
  -304
  -321
  -339
  -357
  -376
  -397
  -417
Free cash flow, $m
  483
  655
  845
  1,053
  1,280
  1,525
  1,788
  2,067
  2,363
  2,675
  3,000
  3,344
  3,704
  4,079
  4,471
  4,879
  5,303
  5,745
  6,203
  6,680
  7,177
  7,693
  8,230
  8,788
  9,370
  9,976
  10,608
  11,267
  11,954
  12,672
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  214
  239
  264
  289
  314
  338
  362
  385
  407
  429
  451
  473
  494
  515
  537
  559
  581
  604
  628
  652
  678
  705
  733
  762
  793
  826
  860
  897
  935
  975
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  214
  239
  264
  289
  314
  338
  362
  385
  407
  429
  451
  473
  494
  515
  537
  559
  581
  604
  628
  652
  678
  705
  733
  762
  793
  826
  860
  897
  935
  975
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  697
  893
  1,109
  1,343
  1,594
  1,863
  2,149
  2,452
  2,770
  3,105
  3,451
  3,817
  4,198
  4,595
  5,008
  5,438
  5,884
  6,349
  6,831
  7,333
  7,855
  8,397
  8,962
  9,551
  10,164
  10,802
  11,469
  12,164
  12,889
  13,647
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -232
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  304
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  950
  837
  1,046
  1,274
  1,520
  1,783
  2,063
  2,360
  2,674
  3,003
  3,344
  3,704
  4,080
  4,472
  4,881
  5,305
  5,746
  6,205
  6,682
  7,178
  7,694
  8,230
  8,788
  9,369
  9,975
  10,606
  11,264
  11,951
  12,667
  13,416
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  910
  766
  910
  1,049
  1,178
  1,294
  1,394
  1,475
  1,536
  1,574
  1,588
  1,581
  1,551
  1,501
  1,433
  1,348
  1,250
  1,143
  1,029
  912
  796
  683
  576
  477
  388
  309
  242
  185
  138
  101
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Evercore Inc., formerly Evercore Partners Inc., is a global independent investment banking advisory company. The Company advises a diverse set of investment banking clients on a wide range of transactions and issues and provides institutional investors with high quality equity research, sales and trading execution that is free of the conflicts created by proprietary activities. The Firm also offers investment management services to high net worth and institutional investors. The Company has 28 offices and affiliate offices in North America, Europe, South America and Asia and has the scale and strength to serve clients globally through a focused and tailored approach designed to meet their unique needs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Evercore Cl A (EVR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.9
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 5.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 35.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 35.1%
Total Debt to Equity 41%
Interest Coverage 20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 15.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Return On Equity 20.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 98.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 98.6%
EBITDA Margin 21.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Operating Margin 17.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Effective Tax Rate 44.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.9%
Payout Ratio 48.1%

EVR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EVR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1704.349 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Evercore Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Evercore Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EVR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EVR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Evercore Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Evercore Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EVR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 36.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $666 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EVR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Evercore Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Evercore Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EVR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EVR are equal to 8.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Evercore Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EVR is equal to -11.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $543.964 million for Evercore Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.956 million for Evercore Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Evercore Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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