Intrinsic value of Evertec - EVTC

Previous Close

$15.20

  Intrinsic Value

$11.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-21%

  Value-price divergence*

+6%

Previous close

$15.20

 
Intrinsic value

$11.94

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+6%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EVTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.28
  4.30
  4.37
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.91
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  390
  407
  425
  443
  463
  484
  507
  530
  555
  581
  608
  637
  668
  700
  733
  769
  806
  845
  887
  930
  976
  1,024
  1,074
  1,127
  1,183
  1,241
  1,303
  1,367
  1,435
  1,506
  1,581
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  292
  304
  315
  328
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  419
  400
  419
  439
  460
  483
  506
  531
  557
  584
  613
  643
  674
  708
  743
  779
  818
  858
  901
  946
  993
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  282
  292
  304
  315
  328
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  419
  400
  419
  439
  460
  483
  506
  531
  557
  584
  613
  643
  674
  708
  743
  779
  818
  858
  901
  946
  993
Operating income, $m
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300
  315
  330
  346
  363
  381
  400
  419
  440
  462
  485
  509
  534
  561
  588
EBITDA, $m
  167
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  343
  359
  377
  395
  415
  435
  456
  479
  503
  527
  553
  581
  610
  640
  672
  705
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
Earnings before tax, $m
  83
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  132
  139
  147
  156
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  293
  307
  322
  337
  354
  371
  389
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
Tax expense, $m
  8
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
Net income, $m
  75
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  114
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  271
  284
  298
  312
  328
  344
  361

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  886
  869
  907
  947
  990
  1,035
  1,082
  1,132
  1,185
  1,241
  1,300
  1,361
  1,426
  1,495
  1,567
  1,643
  1,723
  1,807
  1,895
  1,988
  2,085
  2,188
  2,295
  2,408
  2,527
  2,652
  2,784
  2,922
  3,066
  3,219
  3,378
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  834
  869
  907
  947
  990
  1,035
  1,082
  1,132
  1,185
  1,241
  1,300
  1,361
  1,426
  1,495
  1,567
  1,643
  1,723
  1,807
  1,895
  1,988
  2,085
  2,188
  2,295
  2,408
  2,527
  2,652
  2,784
  2,922
  3,066
  3,219
  3,378
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.468
  0.468
  0.469
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.469
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
Average production assets, $m
  342
  357
  372
  389
  406
  425
  444
  465
  486
  509
  533
  559
  585
  614
  643
  674
  707
  741
  778
  816
  856
  898
  942
  989
  1,037
  1,089
  1,142
  1,199
  1,259
  1,321
  1,387
Working capital, $m
  29
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  88
  92
  96
  101
Total debt, $m
  647
  630
  663
  699
  736
  776
  817
  861
  908
  957
  1,008
  1,063
  1,120
  1,180
  1,243
  1,310
  1,380
  1,454
  1,532
  1,613
  1,699
  1,789
  1,884
  1,983
  2,088
  2,197
  2,313
  2,434
  2,561
  2,695
  2,836
Total liabilities, $m
  781
  764
  797
  833
  870
  910
  951
  995
  1,042
  1,091
  1,142
  1,197
  1,254
  1,314
  1,377
  1,444
  1,514
  1,588
  1,666
  1,747
  1,833
  1,923
  2,018
  2,117
  2,222
  2,331
  2,447
  2,568
  2,695
  2,829
  2,970
Total equity, $m
  105
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  219
  229
  240
  252
  265
  278
  291
  306
  321
  337
  354
  371
  389
  409
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  886
  869
  907
  948
  990
  1,035
  1,082
  1,132
  1,185
  1,241
  1,299
  1,362
  1,427
  1,495
  1,567
  1,643
  1,722
  1,807
  1,895
  1,987
  2,085
  2,188
  2,296
  2,408
  2,528
  2,652
  2,784
  2,922
  3,066
  3,218
  3,379
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.162
  5.990
  6.040
  6.100
  6.150
  6.190
  6.240
  6.290
  6.330
  6.370
  6.410
  6.450
  6.490
  6.520
  6.560
  6.590
  6.620
  6.650
  6.680
  6.710
  6.730
  6.760
  6.780
  6.800
  6.830
  6.850
  6.870
  6.890
  6.900
  6.920
  6.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.097
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  114
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  271
  284
  298
  312
  328
  344
  361
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
Funds from operations, $m
  189
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  187
  196
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
  375
  394
  413
  433
  455
  477
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  168
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  192
  201
  211
  221
  231
  243
  254
  266
  279
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
  372
  390
  409
  429
  450
  472
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -54
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -85
  -90
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -177
Free cash flow, $m
  114
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -61
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  312
  327
  343
  360
  378
  396
  416
  436
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  121
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  169
  177
  186
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
  344
  361
  379
  397
  417
Discount rate, %
 
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.92
  12.52
  13.15
  13.80
  14.49
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.42
  20.39
  21.41
  22.48
  23.61
  24.79
  26.03
  27.33
  28.70
  30.13
  31.64
  33.22
  34.88
  36.62
  38.45
  40.38
  42.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  110
  100
  92
  85
  77
  69
  61
  53
  46
  39
  31
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EVERTEC, Inc. is a transaction processing company. The Company provides a range of merchant acquiring, payment processing and business process management services. The Company operates through three segments: Merchant Acquiring, Payment Processing and Business Solutions. As of December 31, 2016, it managed a system of electronic payment networks that processed over two billion transactions annually. It offers a range of services for core bank processing, cash processing and technology outsourcing. It owns and operates the ATH network, which is a personal identification number (PIN) debit network in Latin America. It serves a range of financial institutions, merchants, corporations and government agencies with solutions that enable them to issue, process and accept transactions securely. The Company's range of services spans the entire transaction processing value chain and includes a range of front-end customer-facing solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Evertec (EVTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.7
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 10.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 570.5%
Total Debt to Equity 616.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Return On Total Capital 9.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Equity 73.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.4%
EBITDA Margin 42.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.4%
Operating Margin 27.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
Net Profit Margin 19.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Effective Tax Rate 9.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Payout Ratio 40%

EVTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EVTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $390 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Evertec. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Evertec. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EVTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.3%, whose default value for EVTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Evertec, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Evertec.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EVTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EVTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Evertec.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Evertec. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EVTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EVTC are equal to 87.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Evertec operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EVTC is equal to 6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $105 million for Evertec - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 72.823 million for Evertec is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Evertec at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to EVERTEC, Inc. : October 11, 2017   [Oct-11-17 11:28AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for October 5th   [Oct-05-17 08:24AM  Zacks]
▶ EVERTEC Increases Hurricane Relief Donation to $1 Million   [Sep-25-17 05:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ Evertec Announces Hurricane Irma Relief Efforts   [Sep-13-17 06:50PM  Business Wire]
▶ Evertec tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-01-17 11:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ EVERTEC Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Declares Quarterly Dividend on Common Stock   [Jul-26-17 09:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Launches ATH® Móvil Business   [Jun-20-17 05:33PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Receives Approval on PayGroup Acquisition   [Jun-05-17 04:14PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:EVTC) : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 05:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Evertec beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-03-17 05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ EVERTEC Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Declares Quarterly Dividend on Common Stock   [Apr-27-17 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Evertec beats Street 4Q forecasts   [05:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Follow Hedge Funds Into Evertec Inc (EVTC)?   [Nov-28-16 03:56PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ EVERTEC Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Reports Second Quarter 2016 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of EVTC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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