Intrinsic value of Evertec - EVTC

Previous Close

$15.90

  Intrinsic Value

$15.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

0%

Previous close

$15.90

 
Intrinsic value

$15.97

 
Up/down potential

0%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EVTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Evertec (EVTC) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.28
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  390
  427
  467
  507
  550
  594
  639
  687
  737
  788
  841
  897
  955
  1,015
  1,077
  1,143
  1,211
  1,282
  1,355
  1,433
  1,513
  1,597
  1,685
  1,777
  1,873
  1,974
  2,079
  2,189
  2,304
  2,425
  2,551
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  305
  330
  356
  382
  410
  439
  468
  500
  532
  565
  563
  599
  637
  677
  717
  760
  805
  851
  899
  950
  1,003
  1,058
  1,116
  1,176
  1,239
  1,305
  1,374
  1,447
  1,523
  1,602
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  282
  305
  330
  356
  382
  410
  439
  468
  500
  532
  565
  563
  599
  637
  677
  717
  760
  805
  851
  899
  950
  1,003
  1,058
  1,116
  1,176
  1,239
  1,305
  1,374
  1,447
  1,523
  1,602
Operating income, $m
  107
  122
  137
  152
  167
  184
  201
  219
  237
  256
  276
  334
  355
  378
  401
  425
  451
  477
  504
  533
  563
  594
  627
  661
  697
  734
  774
  815
  857
  902
  949
EBITDA, $m
  167
  191
  208
  226
  245
  265
  285
  306
  328
  351
  375
  400
  426
  452
  480
  509
  540
  571
  604
  639
  675
  712
  751
  792
  835
  880
  927
  976
  1,027
  1,081
  1,138
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  21
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
Earnings before tax, $m
  83
  101
  113
  126
  139
  152
  167
  181
  197
  212
  229
  283
  301
  320
  339
  359
  380
  402
  425
  449
  474
  500
  527
  555
  585
  616
  649
  683
  718
  756
  795
Tax expense, $m
  8
  27
  31
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
Net income, $m
  75
  74
  83
  92
  101
  111
  122
  132
  143
  155
  167
  207
  220
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
  310
  328
  346
  365
  385
  405
  427
  450
  473
  498
  524
  552
  580

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  886
  913
  997
  1,084
  1,174
  1,268
  1,366
  1,468
  1,574
  1,684
  1,798
  1,917
  2,040
  2,169
  2,302
  2,442
  2,587
  2,738
  2,896
  3,061
  3,233
  3,413
  3,601
  3,797
  4,002
  4,217
  4,442
  4,677
  4,924
  5,182
  5,452
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  834
  913
  997
  1,084
  1,174
  1,268
  1,366
  1,468
  1,574
  1,684
  1,798
  1,917
  2,040
  2,169
  2,302
  2,442
  2,587
  2,738
  2,896
  3,061
  3,233
  3,413
  3,601
  3,797
  4,002
  4,217
  4,442
  4,677
  4,924
  5,182
  5,452
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
Average production assets, $m
  342
  375
  409
  445
  482
  521
  561
  603
  646
  691
  738
  787
  837
  890
  945
  1,002
  1,062
  1,124
  1,189
  1,256
  1,327
  1,401
  1,478
  1,558
  1,643
  1,731
  1,823
  1,920
  2,021
  2,127
  2,238
Working capital, $m
  29
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
Total debt, $m
  647
  669
  742
  819
  898
  981
  1,067
  1,156
  1,249
  1,346
  1,446
  1,551
  1,659
  1,772
  1,890
  2,012
  2,140
  2,273
  2,412
  2,557
  2,708
  2,866
  3,031
  3,204
  3,384
  3,573
  3,770
  3,977
  4,194
  4,421
  4,658
Total liabilities, $m
  781
  803
  876
  953
  1,032
  1,115
  1,201
  1,290
  1,383
  1,480
  1,580
  1,685
  1,793
  1,906
  2,024
  2,146
  2,274
  2,407
  2,546
  2,691
  2,842
  3,000
  3,165
  3,338
  3,518
  3,707
  3,904
  4,111
  4,328
  4,555
  4,792
Total equity, $m
  105
  111
  121
  131
  142
  153
  165
  178
  190
  204
  218
  232
  247
  262
  279
  295
  313
  331
  350
  370
  391
  413
  436
  459
  484
  510
  537
  566
  596
  627
  660
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  886
  914
  997
  1,084
  1,174
  1,268
  1,366
  1,468
  1,573
  1,684
  1,798
  1,917
  2,040
  2,168
  2,303
  2,441
  2,587
  2,738
  2,896
  3,061
  3,233
  3,413
  3,601
  3,797
  4,002
  4,217
  4,441
  4,677
  4,924
  5,182
  5,452
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.162
  6.050
  6.150
  6.240
  6.320
  6.390
  6.450
  6.510
  6.560
  6.610
  6.650
  6.690
  6.720
  6.750
  6.780
  6.810
  6.840
  6.860
  6.880
  6.900
  6.920
  6.940
  6.960
  6.970
  6.990
  7.000
  7.020
  7.030
  7.040
  7.050
  7.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.097
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  74
  83
  92
  101
  111
  122
  132
  143
  155
  167
  207
  220
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
  310
  328
  346
  365
  385
  405
  427
  450
  473
  498
  524
  552
  580
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  69
  71
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
Funds from operations, $m
  189
  142
  154
  166
  179
  192
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  273
  290
  308
  327
  346
  367
  388
  410
  433
  457
  482
  509
  536
  565
  595
  627
  660
  694
  730
  768
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  168
  140
  152
  164
  176
  189
  203
  217
  232
  247
  263
  269
  286
  304
  323
  342
  362
  383
  405
  428
  452
  477
  503
  530
  559
  589
  620
  653
  687
  723
  760
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -54
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -250
  -262
  -276
  -290
Free cash flow, $m
  114
  78
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  158
  159
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  276
  292
  308
  326
  344
  362
  382
  403
  424
  447
  470
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -61
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  244
  258
  263
  278
  294
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
  406
  427
  450
  473
  498
  524
  551
  580
  610
  641
  674
  708
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  143
  149
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  244
  249
  263
  279
  295
  311
  329
  347
  366
  386
  406
  428
  451
  474
  499
  525
  553
  581
  611
  642
  675
Discount rate, %
 
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.92
  12.52
  13.15
  13.80
  14.49
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.42
  20.39
  21.41
  22.48
  23.61
  24.79
  26.03
  27.33
  28.70
  30.13
  31.64
  33.22
  34.88
  36.62
  38.45
  40.38
  42.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  129
  121
  115
  109
  101
  92
  83
  74
  65
  56
  45
  38
  31
  25
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EVERTEC, Inc. is a transaction processing company. The Company provides a range of merchant acquiring, payment processing and business process management services. The Company operates through three segments: Merchant Acquiring, Payment Processing and Business Solutions. As of December 31, 2016, it managed a system of electronic payment networks that processed over two billion transactions annually. It offers a range of services for core bank processing, cash processing and technology outsourcing. It owns and operates the ATH network, which is a personal identification number (PIN) debit network in Latin America. It serves a range of financial institutions, merchants, corporations and government agencies with solutions that enable them to issue, process and accept transactions securely. The Company's range of services spans the entire transaction processing value chain and includes a range of front-end customer-facing solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Evertec (EVTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.4
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 11
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 570.5%
Total Debt to Equity 616.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Return On Total Capital 9.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Equity 73.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.4%
EBITDA Margin 42.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.4%
Operating Margin 27.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
Net Profit Margin 19.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Effective Tax Rate 9.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Payout Ratio 40%

EVTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EVTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $390 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Evertec. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Evertec. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EVTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.3%, whose default value for EVTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Evertec, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Evertec.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EVTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EVTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Evertec.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Evertec. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EVTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EVTC are equal to 87.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Evertec operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EVTC is equal to 6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $105 million for Evertec - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 72.125 million for Evertec is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Evertec at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to EVERTEC, Inc. : December 12, 2017   [Dec-12-17 01:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Evertec misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-07-17 05:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Evertec Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:20PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EVERTEC, Inc. : November 2, 2017   [Nov-02-17 12:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EVERTEC, Inc. : October 23, 2017   [Oct-23-17 10:35AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to EVERTEC, Inc. : October 11, 2017   [Oct-11-17 11:28AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for October 5th   [Oct-05-17 08:24AM  Zacks]
▶ EVERTEC Increases Hurricane Relief Donation to $1 Million   [Sep-25-17 05:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ Evertec Announces Hurricane Irma Relief Efforts   [Sep-13-17 06:50PM  Business Wire]
▶ Evertec tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-01-17 11:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ EVERTEC Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Declares Quarterly Dividend on Common Stock   [Jul-26-17 09:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Launches ATH® Móvil Business   [Jun-20-17 05:33PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Receives Approval on PayGroup Acquisition   [Jun-05-17 04:14PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:EVTC) : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 05:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Evertec beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-03-17 05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ EVERTEC Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ EVERTEC Declares Quarterly Dividend on Common Stock   [Apr-27-17 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Evertec beats Street 4Q forecasts   [05:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Follow Hedge Funds Into Evertec Inc (EVTC)?   [Nov-28-16 03:56PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ EVERTEC Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [04:10PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of EVTC
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