Intrinsic value of Edwards Lifesciences Corporation - EW

Previous Close

$177.26

  Intrinsic Value

$74.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-58%

Previous close

$177.26

 
Intrinsic value

$74.65

 
Up/down potential

-58%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 36.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  4,095
  4,484
  4,890
  5,313
  5,753
  6,210
  6,686
  7,180
  7,694
  8,227
  8,782
  9,359
  9,959
  10,584
  11,234
  11,911
  12,617
  13,353
  14,121
  14,923
  15,759
  16,634
  17,547
  18,502
  19,501
  20,546
  21,640
  22,785
  23,984
  25,240
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,852
  3,109
  3,378
  3,657
  3,948
  4,250
  4,564
  4,891
  5,230
  5,583
  5,804
  6,186
  6,582
  6,995
  7,425
  7,872
  8,339
  8,825
  9,333
  9,863
  10,416
  10,994
  11,597
  12,229
  12,889
  13,579
  14,302
  15,059
  15,851
  16,681
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,852
  3,109
  3,378
  3,657
  3,948
  4,250
  4,564
  4,891
  5,230
  5,583
  5,804
  6,186
  6,582
  6,995
  7,425
  7,872
  8,339
  8,825
  9,333
  9,863
  10,416
  10,994
  11,597
  12,229
  12,889
  13,579
  14,302
  15,059
  15,851
  16,681
Operating income, $m
  1,243
  1,375
  1,513
  1,656
  1,805
  1,960
  2,122
  2,289
  2,463
  2,644
  2,978
  3,173
  3,377
  3,589
  3,809
  4,039
  4,278
  4,528
  4,788
  5,060
  5,344
  5,640
  5,950
  6,274
  6,613
  6,967
  7,338
  7,726
  8,132
  8,558
EBITDA, $m
  1,446
  1,583
  1,726
  1,875
  2,031
  2,192
  2,360
  2,534
  2,716
  2,904
  3,100
  3,304
  3,515
  3,736
  3,965
  4,205
  4,454
  4,714
  4,985
  5,268
  5,563
  5,871
  6,194
  6,531
  6,884
  7,253
  7,639
  8,043
  8,466
  8,909
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  32
  44
  56
  69
  82
  96
  111
  126
  141
  158
  174
  192
  210
  229
  249
  270
  291
  313
  337
  361
  386
  413
  440
  469
  500
  531
  564
  599
  635
  673
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,211
  1,331
  1,457
  1,587
  1,723
  1,864
  2,011
  2,163
  2,322
  2,487
  2,803
  2,981
  3,167
  3,359
  3,560
  3,769
  3,987
  4,214
  4,452
  4,699
  4,957
  5,227
  5,510
  5,804
  6,113
  6,436
  6,774
  7,127
  7,497
  7,885
Tax expense, $m
  327
  359
  393
  429
  465
  503
  543
  584
  627
  671
  757
  805
  855
  907
  961
  1,018
  1,077
  1,138
  1,202
  1,269
  1,339
  1,411
  1,488
  1,567
  1,650
  1,738
  1,829
  1,924
  2,024
  2,129
Net income, $m
  884
  972
  1,063
  1,159
  1,258
  1,361
  1,468
  1,579
  1,695
  1,815
  2,046
  2,176
  2,312
  2,452
  2,599
  2,752
  2,911
  3,077
  3,250
  3,430
  3,619
  3,816
  4,022
  4,237
  4,462
  4,698
  4,945
  5,203
  5,473
  5,756

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,768
  6,316
  6,888
  7,483
  8,103
  8,747
  9,417
  10,113
  10,836
  11,588
  12,369
  13,182
  14,027
  14,907
  15,823
  16,777
  17,771
  18,808
  19,889
  21,018
  22,196
  23,428
  24,714
  26,060
  27,467
  28,939
  30,479
  32,092
  33,780
  35,549
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,768
  6,316
  6,888
  7,483
  8,103
  8,747
  9,417
  10,113
  10,836
  11,588
  12,369
  13,182
  14,027
  14,907
  15,823
  16,777
  17,771
  18,808
  19,889
  21,018
  22,196
  23,428
  24,714
  26,060
  27,467
  28,939
  30,479
  32,092
  33,780
  35,549
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
Average production assets, $m
  1,691
  1,852
  2,020
  2,194
  2,376
  2,565
  2,761
  2,965
  3,177
  3,398
  3,627
  3,865
  4,113
  4,371
  4,640
  4,919
  5,211
  5,515
  5,832
  6,163
  6,509
  6,870
  7,247
  7,641
  8,054
  8,486
  8,937
  9,410
  9,905
  10,424
Working capital, $m
  500
  547
  597
  648
  702
  758
  816
  876
  939
  1,004
  1,071
  1,142
  1,215
  1,291
  1,371
  1,453
  1,539
  1,629
  1,723
  1,821
  1,923
  2,029
  2,141
  2,257
  2,379
  2,507
  2,640
  2,780
  2,926
  3,079
Total debt, $m
  810
  1,038
  1,276
  1,523
  1,781
  2,049
  2,328
  2,617
  2,918
  3,231
  3,556
  3,894
  4,246
  4,612
  4,993
  5,390
  5,803
  6,234
  6,684
  7,154
  7,644
  8,156
  8,692
  9,251
  9,837
  10,449
  11,090
  11,761
  12,463
  13,199
Total liabilities, $m
  2,399
  2,627
  2,865
  3,113
  3,371
  3,639
  3,917
  4,207
  4,508
  4,821
  5,146
  5,484
  5,835
  6,201
  6,582
  6,979
  7,393
  7,824
  8,274
  8,743
  9,234
  9,746
  10,281
  10,841
  11,426
  12,038
  12,679
  13,350
  14,053
  14,788
Total equity, $m
  3,369
  3,689
  4,022
  4,370
  4,732
  5,108
  5,499
  5,906
  6,328
  6,767
  7,224
  7,698
  8,192
  8,705
  9,240
  9,797
  10,378
  10,984
  11,615
  12,274
  12,963
  13,682
  14,433
  15,219
  16,041
  16,900
  17,800
  18,741
  19,728
  20,760
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,768
  6,316
  6,887
  7,483
  8,103
  8,747
  9,416
  10,113
  10,836
  11,588
  12,370
  13,182
  14,027
  14,906
  15,822
  16,776
  17,771
  18,808
  19,889
  21,017
  22,197
  23,428
  24,714
  26,060
  27,467
  28,938
  30,479
  32,091
  33,781
  35,548
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.240
  0.280
  0.320
  0.350
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584
  0.584

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  884
  972
  1,063
  1,159
  1,258
  1,361
  1,468
  1,579
  1,695
  1,815
  2,046
  2,176
  2,312
  2,452
  2,599
  2,752
  2,911
  3,077
  3,250
  3,430
  3,619
  3,816
  4,022
  4,237
  4,462
  4,698
  4,945
  5,203
  5,473
  5,756
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  202
  208
  214
  219
  225
  232
  238
  245
  252
  260
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  175
  186
  196
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
  271
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
Funds from operations, $m
  1,087
  1,180
  1,277
  1,378
  1,483
  1,593
  1,706
  1,825
  1,947
  2,075
  2,169
  2,307
  2,450
  2,600
  2,755
  2,917
  3,086
  3,262
  3,446
  3,638
  3,838
  4,047
  4,266
  4,495
  4,734
  4,984
  5,246
  5,520
  5,807
  6,107
Change in working capital, $m
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  117
  122
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
Cash from operations, $m
  1,041
  1,132
  1,227
  1,326
  1,430
  1,537
  1,648
  1,764
  1,885
  2,010
  2,101
  2,236
  2,377
  2,523
  2,676
  2,835
  3,000
  3,172
  3,352
  3,540
  3,736
  3,941
  4,154
  4,378
  4,612
  4,856
  5,112
  5,380
  5,660
  5,954
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -175
  -186
  -196
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -334
New CAPEX, $m
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -331
  -346
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -413
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -495
  -519
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -297
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -396
  -416
  -436
  -458
  -479
  -503
  -527
  -554
  -580
  -608
  -638
  -670
  -703
  -738
  -774
  -812
  -853
Free cash flow, $m
  834
  915
  997
  1,084
  1,174
  1,268
  1,366
  1,467
  1,573
  1,683
  1,757
  1,876
  1,999
  2,127
  2,260
  2,399
  2,543
  2,693
  2,850
  3,013
  3,183
  3,360
  3,546
  3,740
  3,942
  4,153
  4,375
  4,606
  4,848
  5,102
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  216
  228
  238
  248
  258
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  431
  450
  470
  490
  512
  535
  560
  585
  612
  641
  671
  702
  736
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  216
  228
  238
  248
  258
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  431
  450
  470
  490
  512
  535
  560
  585
  612
  641
  671
  702
  736
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,050
  1,143
  1,235
  1,332
  1,432
  1,536
  1,644
  1,757
  1,874
  1,995
  2,082
  2,214
  2,351
  2,493
  2,641
  2,795
  2,956
  3,124
  3,299
  3,482
  3,673
  3,873
  4,081
  4,299
  4,527
  4,766
  5,016
  5,277
  5,551
  5,838
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -308
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -362
  -376
  -391
  -406
  -422
  -439
  -456
  -475
  -494
  -514
  -535
  -557
  -581
  -605
  -632
  -659
  -688
  -719
  -751
  -786
  -822
  -860
  -900
  -942
  -986
  -1,033
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  822
  823
  901
  984
  1,070
  1,160
  1,253
  1,350
  1,451
  1,556
  1,626
  1,739
  1,857
  1,979
  2,106
  2,238
  2,376
  2,519
  2,668
  2,823
  2,985
  3,154
  3,330
  3,514
  3,706
  3,906
  4,116
  4,335
  4,565
  4,805
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  788
  753
  784
  810
  829
  842
  847
  844
  834
  816
  772
  742
  706
  664
  618
  569
  517
  464
  411
  359
  309
  262
  218
  179
  144
  114
  88
  67
  50
  36
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Edwards Lifesciences Corporation is a manufacturer of heart valve systems and repair products used to replace or repair a patient's diseased or defective heart valve. The Company is engaged in patient-focused innovations for structural heart disease and critical care monitoring. Its segments include United States, Europe, Japan and Rest of World. Its products are categorized into three areas: Transcatheter Heart Valve Therapy, Surgical Heart Valve Therapy and Critical Care. It also develops hemodynamic monitoring systems that are used to measure a patient's cardiovascular function in the hospital setting. It is developing products, such as the Edwards SAPIEN 3 Ultra System and Edwards SAPIEN XT transcatheter heart valve, among others. Its Transcatheter Heart Valve Therapy and Surgical Heart Valve Therapy products are manufactured in the United States, Singapore and Switzerland. Critical Care products are manufactured in its facilities located in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (EW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 65.8
Price to Sales 12.7
Price to Book 14.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 53.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 77
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 18.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 102.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 31.4%
Total Debt to Equity 31.4%
Interest Coverage 47
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Return On Total Capital 17.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Return On Equity 22.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.8%
EBITDA Margin 27.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.3%
Operating Margin 24.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Net Profit Margin 19.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Effective Tax Rate 22.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3723 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Edwards Lifesciences Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Edwards Lifesciences Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Edwards Lifesciences Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Edwards Lifesciences Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Edwards Lifesciences Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Edwards Lifesciences Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EW are equal to 41.3%.

Life of production assets of 29.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Edwards Lifesciences Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EW is equal to 12.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3140.4 million for Edwards Lifesciences Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 207.789 million for Edwards Lifesciences Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Edwards Lifesciences Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $36.8 billion.

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