Intrinsic value of Edwards Lifesciences - EW

Previous Close

$157.21

  Intrinsic Value

$119.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-24%

Previous close

$157.21

 
Intrinsic value

$119.57

 
Up/down potential

-24%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 32.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.10
  11.39
  10.75
  10.18
  9.66
  9.19
  8.77
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.32
  6.18
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
Revenue, $m
  3,851
  4,290
  4,751
  5,234
  5,740
  6,267
  6,817
  7,390
  7,985
  8,604
  9,247
  9,915
  10,610
  11,332
  12,083
  12,863
  13,676
  14,521
  15,402
  16,320
  17,277
  18,275
  19,317
  20,404
  21,540
  22,727
  23,967
  25,264
  26,622
  28,042
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,517
  1,672
  1,835
  2,005
  2,183
  2,369
  2,563
  2,765
  2,975
  3,193
  3,260
  3,496
  3,741
  3,995
  4,260
  4,535
  4,822
  5,120
  5,431
  5,754
  6,092
  6,444
  6,811
  7,194
  7,595
  8,013
  8,450
  8,908
  9,386
  9,887
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,076
  1,100
  1,124
  1,149
  1,174
  1,200
  1,226
  1,253
  1,281
  1,309
  1,338
  1,367
  1,397
  1,428
  1,459
  1,492
  1,524
  1,558
  1,592
  1,627
  1,663
  1,700
  1,737
  1,775
  1,814
  1,854
  1,895
  1,937
  1,979
  2,023
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,593
  2,772
  2,959
  3,154
  3,357
  3,569
  3,789
  4,018
  4,256
  4,502
  4,598
  4,863
  5,138
  5,423
  5,719
  6,027
  6,346
  6,678
  7,023
  7,381
  7,755
  8,144
  8,548
  8,969
  9,409
  9,867
  10,345
  10,845
  11,365
  11,910
Operating income, $m
  1,258
  1,518
  1,792
  2,080
  2,383
  2,698
  3,028
  3,371
  3,729
  4,102
  4,649
  5,052
  5,472
  5,908
  6,363
  6,836
  7,330
  7,844
  8,379
  8,939
  9,522
  10,132
  10,769
  11,435
  12,131
  12,859
  13,622
  14,420
  15,256
  16,132
EBITDA, $m
  1,479
  1,746
  2,028
  2,324
  2,634
  2,958
  3,296
  3,649
  4,016
  4,399
  4,797
  5,211
  5,642
  6,090
  6,556
  7,042
  7,548
  8,076
  8,626
  9,200
  9,799
  10,424
  11,078
  11,761
  12,476
  13,223
  14,005
  14,824
  15,682
  16,580
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  56
  70
  85
  101
  118
  135
  154
  173
  192
  213
  234
  256
  279
  303
  328
  354
  381
  409
  438
  469
  500
  533
  568
  604
  641
  680
  721
  764
  809
  856
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,202
  1,448
  1,707
  1,979
  2,265
  2,563
  2,874
  3,199
  3,537
  3,889
  4,415
  4,796
  5,192
  5,605
  6,035
  6,482
  6,948
  7,434
  7,941
  8,470
  9,022
  9,599
  10,201
  10,831
  11,490
  12,179
  12,900
  13,656
  14,447
  15,276
Tax expense, $m
  324
  391
  461
  534
  611
  692
  776
  864
  955
  1,050
  1,192
  1,295
  1,402
  1,513
  1,629
  1,750
  1,876
  2,007
  2,144
  2,287
  2,436
  2,592
  2,754
  2,924
  3,102
  3,288
  3,483
  3,687
  3,901
  4,125
Net income, $m
  877
  1,057
  1,246
  1,445
  1,653
  1,871
  2,098
  2,335
  2,582
  2,839
  3,223
  3,501
  3,790
  4,092
  4,405
  4,732
  5,072
  5,427
  5,797
  6,183
  6,586
  7,007
  7,447
  7,907
  8,388
  8,891
  9,417
  9,969
  10,546
  11,152

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,774
  6,431
  7,123
  7,847
  8,605
  9,396
  10,221
  11,079
  11,971
  12,899
  13,864
  14,866
  15,907
  16,989
  18,115
  19,285
  20,503
  21,771
  23,092
  24,468
  25,903
  27,399
  28,960
  30,591
  32,293
  34,073
  35,933
  37,878
  39,912
  42,041
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,774
  6,431
  7,123
  7,847
  8,605
  9,396
  10,221
  11,079
  11,971
  12,899
  13,864
  14,866
  15,907
  16,989
  18,115
  19,285
  20,503
  21,771
  23,092
  24,468
  25,903
  27,399
  28,960
  30,591
  32,293
  34,073
  35,933
  37,878
  39,912
  42,041
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
Average production assets, $m
  1,386
  1,544
  1,710
  1,884
  2,066
  2,256
  2,454
  2,660
  2,875
  3,097
  3,329
  3,570
  3,820
  4,079
  4,350
  4,631
  4,923
  5,228
  5,545
  5,875
  6,220
  6,579
  6,954
  7,345
  7,754
  8,182
  8,628
  9,095
  9,584
  10,095
Working capital, $m
  435
  485
  537
  591
  649
  708
  770
  835
  902
  972
  1,045
  1,120
  1,199
  1,281
  1,365
  1,454
  1,545
  1,641
  1,740
  1,844
  1,952
  2,065
  2,183
  2,306
  2,434
  2,568
  2,708
  2,855
  3,008
  3,169
Total debt, $m
  1,301
  1,581
  1,876
  2,185
  2,508
  2,845
  3,196
  3,561
  3,942
  4,337
  4,748
  5,174
  5,618
  6,079
  6,559
  7,057
  7,576
  8,116
  8,679
  9,265
  9,876
  10,514
  11,179
  11,873
  12,599
  13,357
  14,149
  14,978
  15,844
  16,751
Total liabilities, $m
  2,460
  2,740
  3,034
  3,343
  3,666
  4,003
  4,354
  4,720
  5,100
  5,495
  5,906
  6,333
  6,776
  7,237
  7,717
  8,216
  8,734
  9,275
  9,837
  10,423
  11,034
  11,672
  12,337
  13,032
  13,757
  14,515
  15,307
  16,136
  17,003
  17,910
Total equity, $m
  3,314
  3,691
  4,088
  4,504
  4,939
  5,394
  5,867
  6,359
  6,872
  7,404
  7,958
  8,533
  9,131
  9,752
  10,398
  11,070
  11,769
  12,497
  13,255
  14,045
  14,868
  15,727
  16,623
  17,559
  18,536
  19,558
  20,625
  21,742
  22,910
  24,132
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,774
  6,431
  7,122
  7,847
  8,605
  9,397
  10,221
  11,079
  11,972
  12,899
  13,864
  14,866
  15,907
  16,989
  18,115
  19,286
  20,503
  21,772
  23,092
  24,468
  25,902
  27,399
  28,960
  30,591
  32,293
  34,073
  35,932
  37,878
  39,913
  42,042
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.390
  0.430
  0.460
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  877
  1,057
  1,246
  1,445
  1,653
  1,871
  2,098
  2,335
  2,582
  2,839
  3,223
  3,501
  3,790
  4,092
  4,405
  4,732
  5,072
  5,427
  5,797
  6,183
  6,586
  7,007
  7,447
  7,907
  8,388
  8,891
  9,417
  9,969
  10,546
  11,152
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  221
  228
  235
  243
  251
  260
  269
  278
  287
  297
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  276
  292
  309
  326
  345
  364
  383
  404
  426
  449
Funds from operations, $m
  1,098
  1,285
  1,481
  1,688
  1,904
  2,131
  2,367
  2,613
  2,869
  3,136
  3,371
  3,660
  3,960
  4,273
  4,599
  4,938
  5,291
  5,659
  6,044
  6,444
  6,863
  7,299
  7,756
  8,233
  8,732
  9,254
  9,801
  10,373
  10,972
  11,600
Change in working capital, $m
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
Cash from operations, $m
  1,051
  1,235
  1,429
  1,633
  1,847
  2,071
  2,305
  2,548
  2,802
  3,066
  3,298
  3,584
  3,882
  4,191
  4,514
  4,850
  5,199
  5,564
  5,944
  6,341
  6,754
  7,187
  7,638
  8,110
  8,604
  9,120
  9,661
  10,226
  10,819
  11,440
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -232
  -246
  -261
  -276
  -292
  -309
  -326
  -345
  -364
  -383
  -404
  -426
New CAPEX, $m
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -359
  -375
  -391
  -409
  -427
  -447
  -467
  -489
  -511
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -205
  -220
  -235
  -250
  -266
  -282
  -298
  -315
  -332
  -351
  -370
  -389
  -409
  -430
  -451
  -474
  -498
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -605
  -635
  -667
  -700
  -735
  -772
  -811
  -850
  -893
  -937
Free cash flow, $m
  846
  1,016
  1,195
  1,383
  1,582
  1,789
  2,006
  2,233
  2,469
  2,716
  2,929
  3,195
  3,473
  3,762
  4,062
  4,375
  4,701
  5,041
  5,395
  5,764
  6,149
  6,551
  6,971
  7,410
  7,868
  8,348
  8,850
  9,376
  9,926
  10,503
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  265
  280
  295
  309
  323
  337
  351
  366
  380
  395
  411
  427
  444
  461
  479
  499
  519
  540
  563
  586
  611
  637
  665
  694
  725
  758
  792
  829
  867
  907
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  265
  280
  295
  309
  323
  337
  351
  366
  380
  395
  411
  427
  444
  461
  479
  499
  519
  540
  563
  586
  611
  637
  665
  694
  725
  758
  792
  829
  867
  907
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,111
  1,296
  1,489
  1,692
  1,904
  2,126
  2,358
  2,599
  2,850
  3,111
  3,340
  3,622
  3,917
  4,223
  4,542
  4,874
  5,220
  5,581
  5,957
  6,350
  6,760
  7,188
  7,636
  8,104
  8,594
  9,106
  9,643
  10,204
  10,793
  11,410
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -358
  -377
  -397
  -416
  -435
  -454
  -473
  -493
  -512
  -533
  -554
  -575
  -598
  -621
  -646
  -672
  -699
  -728
  -758
  -790
  -823
  -859
  -896
  -936
  -977
  -1,021
  -1,068
  -1,116
  -1,168
  -1,222
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  753
  918
  1,092
  1,276
  1,469
  1,672
  1,884
  2,106
  2,337
  2,578
  2,786
  3,047
  3,319
  3,602
  3,896
  4,202
  4,521
  4,853
  5,199
  5,560
  5,936
  6,329
  6,740
  7,168
  7,616
  8,085
  8,575
  9,088
  9,625
  10,188
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  722
  841
  951
  1,051
  1,139
  1,214
  1,273
  1,316
  1,343
  1,352
  1,323
  1,300
  1,262
  1,209
  1,144
  1,068
  984
  894
  801
  707
  614
  525
  442
  365
  296
  236
  184
  141
  105
  77
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Edwards Lifesciences Corporation is a manufacturer of heart valve systems and repair products used to replace or repair a patient's diseased or defective heart valve. The Company is engaged in patient-focused innovations for structural heart disease and critical care monitoring. Its segments include United States, Europe, Japan and Rest of World. Its products are categorized into three areas: Transcatheter Heart Valve Therapy, Surgical Heart Valve Therapy and Critical Care. It also develops hemodynamic monitoring systems that are used to measure a patient's cardiovascular function in the hospital setting. It is developing products, such as the Edwards SAPIEN 3 Ultra System and Edwards SAPIEN XT transcatheter heart valve, among others. Its Transcatheter Heart Valve Therapy and Surgical Heart Valve Therapy products are manufactured in the United States, Singapore and Switzerland. Critical Care products are manufactured in its facilities located in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Edwards Lifesciences (EW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 58.4
Price to Sales 11.2
Price to Book 12.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 47.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 68.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 18.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 102.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 31.4%
Total Debt to Equity 31.4%
Interest Coverage 47
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Return On Total Capital 17.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Return On Equity 22.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.8%
EBITDA Margin 27.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.3%
Operating Margin 24.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Net Profit Margin 19.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Effective Tax Rate 22.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

EW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3435.3 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Edwards Lifesciences. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Edwards Lifesciences. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Edwards Lifesciences, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Edwards Lifesciences.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1053 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Edwards Lifesciences.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Edwards Lifesciences. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EW are equal to 36%.

Life of production assets of 22.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Edwards Lifesciences operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EW is equal to 11.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2956.2 million for Edwards Lifesciences - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 209.386 million for Edwards Lifesciences is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Edwards Lifesciences at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $32.9 billion.

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