Intrinsic value of EXFO - EXFO

Previous Close

$4.10

  Intrinsic Value

$3.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-18%

Previous close

$4.10

 
Intrinsic value

$3.35

 
Up/down potential

-18%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXFO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.29
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  243
  248
  254
  260
  267
  275
  284
  294
  305
  316
  328
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  419
  438
  458
  479
  501
  524
  548
  574
  601
  630
  660
  692
  725
  760
  797
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  230
  236
  242
  248
  256
  264
  273
  282
  293
  304
  312
  325
  338
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  438
  458
  480
  502
  526
  550
  577
  604
  633
  664
  696
  730
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  235
  230
  236
  242
  248
  256
  264
  273
  282
  293
  304
  312
  325
  338
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  438
  458
  480
  502
  526
  550
  577
  604
  633
  664
  696
  730
Operating income, $m
  9
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
EBITDA, $m
  16
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  7
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
Tax expense, $m
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Net income, $m
  1
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  259
  224
  229
  235
  242
  249
  257
  266
  276
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  349
  364
  380
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
  688
  721
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  220
  224
  229
  235
  242
  249
  257
  266
  276
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  349
  364
  380
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
  688
  721
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.105
  1.107
  1.109
  1.106
  1.103
  1.104
  1.105
  1.105
  1.105
  1.105
  1.104
  1.104
  1.106
  1.108
  1.103
  1.104
  1.103
  1.106
  1.106
  1.106
  1.106
  1.105
  1.105
  1.106
  1.105
  1.105
  1.106
  1.105
  1.105
  1.105
  1.105
Average production assets, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Working capital, $m
  74
  36
  37
  37
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  99
  106
  115
  123
  132
  141
Total liabilities, $m
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  177
  185
  194
  203
Total equity, $m
  197
  161
  165
  169
  174
  179
  185
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  409
  429
  449
  471
  494
  518
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  259
  224
  230
  235
  242
  249
  258
  266
  276
  286
  297
  309
  322
  334
  348
  364
  380
  397
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
  688
  721
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Funds from operations, $m
  13
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  13
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  53
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  50
  12
  12
  11
  10
  10
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

EXFO Inc is a Canada-based company, which provides communications service providers (CSPs) and data center, cloud and Web-scale operators with field test, service assurance and analytics solutions to ensure the deployment, maintenance and management of physical, virtual, fixed and mobile networks. It focuses on network infrastructures: fourth generation (4G)/long-term evolution (LTE), wireless backhaul, small cells and distributed antenna systems (DAS), 100G network upgrades and fiber-to-the-home (FTTH)/fiber-to-the-curb (FTTC)/fiber-to-the-node (FTTN) deployments. It offers a range of wire line and wireless tests, service assurance and analytics solutions to the global telecommunications industry. Its products include TestFlow; LTB-8 platform; a family of optical time domain reflect meters (OTDRs); iSAM; MaxTester-940 Fiber Certifier optical loss test set (OLTS) for data center and enterprise markets, and the G.fast handheld test set.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  EXFO (EXFO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 221
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17
Price to Free Cash Flow 36.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Equity 0.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.2%
EBITDA Margin 5.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Net Profit Margin 0.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 85.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

EXFO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXFO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $243 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by EXFO. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of EXFO. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXFO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXFO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of EXFO, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of EXFO.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXFO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXFO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for EXFO.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for EXFO. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXFO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXFO are equal to 2.9%.

Life of production assets of 5.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in EXFO operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXFO is equal to 14.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $197 million for EXFO - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55.76 million for EXFO is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of EXFO at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ EXFO investor advisory   [Dec-13-17 09:00AM  CNW Group]
▶ November Top Growth Stocks To Look Out For   [Nov-27-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 9 Positions George Soros Increased in the Past 2 Quarters   [Nov-21-17 12:57PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Company News For Oct 13, 2017   [Oct-13-17 10:15AM  Zacks]
▶ Exfo tops 4Q revenue forecasts   [Oct-12-17 04:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ EXFO Closes Acquisition of Yenista Optics   [Oct-02-17 08:00AM  CNW Group]
▶ EXFO in exclusive negotiations to acquire Yenista Optics   [Sep-07-17 07:08AM  PR Newswire]
▶ EXFO, Inc.: Leads amongst peers with strong fundamentals   [Sep-01-17 06:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Exfo reports 3Q loss   [Jun-29-17 08:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ EXFO to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-24-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ EXFO Streamlines Monitoring Solutions Portfolio   [May-02-17 08:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Exfo posts 2Q profit   [Mar-29-17 05:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ EXFO Announces CEO Transition   [04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ EXFO Announces CEO Transition   [04:16PM  CNW Group]
▶ EXFO honored by 2017 Lightwave Innovation Reviews   [Mar-23-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ EXFO Acquires Ontology Systems   [Mar-02-17 01:04AM  PR Newswire]
▶ EXFO Announces Election of Directors   [09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bruce Pile's Top Technology Stocks For 2017   [Jan-11-17 01:32PM  at Forbes]
▶ EXFO Files Amended Annual Report for Fiscal 2016   [Jan-09-17 10:36PM  PR Newswire]
▶ EXFO to Present Earlier at Needham Growth Conference   [Jan-06-17 09:00AM  CNW Group]
▶ EXFO to Address Financial Community   [Dec-13-16 09:28AM  PR Newswire]
▶ EXFO Supports Openreach on G.fast Pilot   [Oct-13-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ EXFO to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Aug-02-16 09:00AM  CNW Group]
▶ EXFO Introduces Advanced 100G Multichannel OTN Testing   [Jun-02-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ EXFO to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-25-16 09:00AM  CNW Group]
Financial statements of EXFO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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