Intrinsic value of Eagle Materials - EXP

Previous Close

$108.13

  Intrinsic Value

$17.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$108.13

 
Intrinsic value

$17.10

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  1,282
  1,357
  1,435
  1,516
  1,601
  1,689
  1,782
  1,878
  1,980
  2,085
  2,196
  2,312
  2,434
  2,561
  2,694
  2,834
  2,981
  3,134
  3,295
  3,464
  3,641
  3,826
  4,021
  4,225
  4,440
  4,664
  4,900
  5,148
  5,408
  5,681
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,060
  1,121
  1,184
  1,249
  1,318
  1,389
  1,464
  1,542
  1,624
  1,710
  1,776
  1,870
  1,968
  2,071
  2,178
  2,291
  2,410
  2,534
  2,664
  2,800
  2,944
  3,094
  3,251
  3,416
  3,589
  3,771
  3,962
  4,162
  4,372
  4,593
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,060
  1,121
  1,184
  1,249
  1,318
  1,389
  1,464
  1,542
  1,624
  1,710
  1,776
  1,870
  1,968
  2,071
  2,178
  2,291
  2,410
  2,534
  2,664
  2,800
  2,944
  3,094
  3,251
  3,416
  3,589
  3,771
  3,962
  4,162
  4,372
  4,593
Operating income, $m
  222
  236
  251
  267
  283
  300
  318
  336
  355
  376
  421
  443
  466
  490
  516
  543
  571
  600
  631
  663
  697
  733
  770
  809
  850
  893
  938
  986
  1,036
  1,088
EBITDA, $m
  415
  439
  464
  491
  518
  547
  577
  608
  641
  675
  711
  748
  788
  829
  872
  917
  965
  1,014
  1,067
  1,121
  1,178
  1,239
  1,302
  1,368
  1,437
  1,510
  1,586
  1,666
  1,750
  1,839
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  198
  208
  220
  232
Earnings before tax, $m
  185
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  258
  273
  287
  303
  343
  360
  378
  397
  416
  437
  458
  481
  505
  529
  555
  583
  611
  641
  673
  706
  741
  777
  816
  856
Tax expense, $m
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
Net income, $m
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  250
  263
  276
  290
  304
  319
  335
  351
  368
  386
  405
  425
  446
  468
  491
  515
  541
  567
  595
  625

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,379
  2,518
  2,662
  2,812
  2,970
  3,134
  3,305
  3,485
  3,673
  3,869
  4,075
  4,290
  4,515
  4,752
  4,999
  5,258
  5,530
  5,815
  6,113
  6,426
  6,755
  7,099
  7,460
  7,839
  8,237
  8,654
  9,092
  9,551
  10,033
  10,539
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,379
  2,518
  2,662
  2,812
  2,970
  3,134
  3,305
  3,485
  3,673
  3,869
  4,075
  4,290
  4,515
  4,752
  4,999
  5,258
  5,530
  5,815
  6,113
  6,426
  6,755
  7,099
  7,460
  7,839
  8,237
  8,654
  9,092
  9,551
  10,033
  10,539
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
Average production assets, $m
  1,695
  1,794
  1,897
  2,004
  2,116
  2,233
  2,355
  2,483
  2,617
  2,757
  2,904
  3,057
  3,218
  3,386
  3,562
  3,747
  3,940
  4,143
  4,356
  4,579
  4,813
  5,058
  5,316
  5,586
  5,869
  6,166
  6,478
  6,806
  7,149
  7,510
Working capital, $m
  171
  180
  191
  202
  213
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  358
  377
  396
  417
  438
  461
  484
  509
  535
  562
  590
  620
  652
  685
  719
  756
Total debt, $m
  746
  810
  877
  947
  1,020
  1,096
  1,176
  1,259
  1,346
  1,438
  1,533
  1,633
  1,738
  1,847
  1,962
  2,082
  2,208
  2,340
  2,479
  2,624
  2,776
  2,936
  3,104
  3,280
  3,464
  3,658
  3,861
  4,074
  4,298
  4,532
Total liabilities, $m
  1,104
  1,168
  1,235
  1,305
  1,378
  1,454
  1,534
  1,617
  1,704
  1,795
  1,891
  1,991
  2,095
  2,205
  2,319
  2,440
  2,566
  2,698
  2,837
  2,982
  3,134
  3,294
  3,462
  3,637
  3,822
  4,015
  4,219
  4,432
  4,655
  4,890
Total equity, $m
  1,275
  1,349
  1,427
  1,507
  1,592
  1,680
  1,772
  1,868
  1,969
  2,074
  2,184
  2,299
  2,420
  2,547
  2,679
  2,818
  2,964
  3,117
  3,277
  3,444
  3,620
  3,805
  3,999
  4,202
  4,415
  4,639
  4,873
  5,119
  5,378
  5,649
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,379
  2,517
  2,662
  2,812
  2,970
  3,134
  3,306
  3,485
  3,673
  3,869
  4,075
  4,290
  4,515
  4,752
  4,998
  5,258
  5,530
  5,815
  6,114
  6,426
  6,754
  7,099
  7,461
  7,839
  8,237
  8,654
  9,092
  9,551
  10,033
  10,539
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  250
  263
  276
  290
  304
  319
  335
  351
  368
  386
  405
  425
  446
  468
  491
  515
  541
  567
  595
  625
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
  290
  306
  322
  339
  356
  375
  394
  414
  436
  458
  481
  506
  532
  559
  587
  617
  648
  681
  715
  751
Funds from operations, $m
  328
  346
  365
  384
  404
  426
  448
  471
  495
  521
  541
  568
  598
  628
  660
  694
  729
  765
  804
  844
  887
  931
  978
  1,027
  1,078
  1,132
  1,189
  1,248
  1,310
  1,376
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  319
  336
  354
  373
  393
  414
  435
  458
  482
  506
  526
  553
  581
  611
  642
  675
  709
  745
  783
  822
  863
  907
  952
  1,000
  1,050
  1,102
  1,157
  1,215
  1,276
  1,339
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -160
  -170
  -179
  -190
  -200
  -212
  -223
  -236
  -248
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -306
  -322
  -339
  -356
  -375
  -394
  -414
  -436
  -458
  -481
  -506
  -532
  -559
  -587
  -617
  -648
  -681
  -715
New CAPEX, $m
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -360
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -254
  -269
  -282
  -297
  -312
  -329
  -345
  -364
  -382
  -402
  -423
  -443
  -467
  -490
  -515
  -541
  -569
  -597
  -627
  -659
  -692
  -726
  -763
  -802
  -842
  -884
  -929
  -975
  -1,024
  -1,075
Free cash flow, $m
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  60
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  184
  194
  203
  213
  224
  235
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  60
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  184
  194
  203
  213
  224
  235
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  199
  209
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
  309
  324
  340
  356
  374
  392
  412
  432
  453
  475
  499
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -271
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash available for distribution, $m
  52
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
Discount rate, %
  4.80
  5.04
  5.29
  5.56
  5.83
  6.13
  6.43
  6.75
  7.09
  7.45
  7.82
  8.21
  8.62
  9.05
  9.50
  9.98
  10.48
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.74
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.07
  17.92
  18.82
  19.76
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  50
  53
  53
  53
  52
  51
  50
  48
  46
  44
  39
  36
  34
  31
  28
  25
  22
  19
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Eagle Materials Inc. is a supplier of construction products, building materials and materials used for oil and natural gas extraction. The Company operates through five segments: Cement, Concrete and Aggregates, Gypsum Wallboard, Recycled Paperboard, and Oil and Gas Proppants. The Company's construction products are used in residential, industrial, commercial and infrastructure construction, and include cement, slag, concrete and aggregates. Its building materials include gypsum wallboard. Its basic material used for oil and natural gas extraction include frac sand and oil well cement. It sells cement in over six regional markets, including northern Nevada and California, the greater Chicago area, the Rocky Mountain region, the Central Plains region and Texas. It sells slag in the greater Chicago, Illinois area and the greater Midwest area. It has approximately three concrete and aggregates businesses. It also operates a recycled paperboard business.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Eagle Materials (EXP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.5
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 50.3%
Total Debt to Equity 57%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Total Capital 11.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Return On Equity 17.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
EBITDA Margin 33.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Operating Margin 24.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Net Profit Margin 16.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Effective Tax Rate 32.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Payout Ratio 9.6%

EXP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1211 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Eagle Materials. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Eagle Materials. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.8%, whose default value for EXP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Eagle Materials, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Eagle Materials.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Eagle Materials.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Eagle Materials. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXP stock is equal to 0.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXP are equal to 132.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Eagle Materials operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXP is equal to 13.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1203 million for Eagle Materials - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48 million for Eagle Materials is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Eagle Materials at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.2 billion.

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