Intrinsic value of Eagle Materials - EXP

Previous Close

$86.47

  Intrinsic Value

$35.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$86.47

 
Intrinsic value

$35.49

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  1,491
  1,599
  1,711
  1,828
  1,949
  2,075
  2,206
  2,343
  2,486
  2,634
  2,789
  2,950
  3,118
  3,294
  3,477
  3,669
  3,870
  4,079
  4,299
  4,528
  4,768
  5,020
  5,283
  5,559
  5,848
  6,151
  6,468
  6,801
  7,150
  7,516
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,153
  1,235
  1,320
  1,409
  1,501
  1,596
  1,696
  1,799
  1,907
  2,020
  2,113
  2,235
  2,363
  2,496
  2,635
  2,780
  2,932
  3,091
  3,257
  3,431
  3,613
  3,804
  4,003
  4,212
  4,431
  4,661
  4,901
  5,153
  5,418
  5,695
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,153
  1,235
  1,320
  1,409
  1,501
  1,596
  1,696
  1,799
  1,907
  2,020
  2,113
  2,235
  2,363
  2,496
  2,635
  2,780
  2,932
  3,091
  3,257
  3,431
  3,613
  3,804
  4,003
  4,212
  4,431
  4,661
  4,901
  5,153
  5,418
  5,695
Operating income, $m
  337
  363
  391
  419
  448
  479
  511
  544
  578
  614
  676
  715
  755
  798
  842
  889
  937
  988
  1,041
  1,097
  1,155
  1,216
  1,280
  1,347
  1,417
  1,490
  1,567
  1,648
  1,732
  1,821
EBITDA, $m
  475
  510
  546
  583
  621
  662
  704
  747
  793
  840
  889
  941
  994
  1,050
  1,109
  1,170
  1,234
  1,301
  1,371
  1,444
  1,520
  1,601
  1,685
  1,773
  1,865
  1,961
  2,063
  2,169
  2,280
  2,397
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  34
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  158
  168
  177
  188
  198
  209
  221
  234
  246
Earnings before tax, $m
  304
  326
  349
  373
  398
  425
  452
  480
  509
  540
  596
  629
  664
  701
  739
  778
  820
  863
  908
  956
  1,006
  1,058
  1,112
  1,169
  1,229
  1,292
  1,358
  1,426
  1,499
  1,574
Tax expense, $m
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  300
  316
  332
  349
  367
  385
  405
  425
Net income, $m
  222
  238
  255
  273
  291
  310
  330
  350
  372
  394
  435
  459
  485
  511
  539
  568
  598
  630
  663
  698
  734
  772
  812
  854
  897
  943
  991
  1,041
  1,094
  1,149

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,544
  2,728
  2,920
  3,119
  3,326
  3,541
  3,765
  3,999
  4,242
  4,495
  4,759
  5,034
  5,321
  5,621
  5,934
  6,262
  6,604
  6,961
  7,336
  7,727
  8,137
  8,566
  9,015
  9,486
  9,979
  10,496
  11,038
  11,606
  12,201
  12,826
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,544
  2,728
  2,920
  3,119
  3,326
  3,541
  3,765
  3,999
  4,242
  4,495
  4,759
  5,034
  5,321
  5,621
  5,934
  6,262
  6,604
  6,961
  7,336
  7,727
  8,137
  8,566
  9,015
  9,486
  9,979
  10,496
  11,038
  11,606
  12,201
  12,826
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
  0.586
Average production assets, $m
  1,815
  1,947
  2,084
  2,226
  2,374
  2,528
  2,688
  2,854
  3,027
  3,208
  3,397
  3,593
  3,798
  4,012
  4,236
  4,469
  4,713
  4,969
  5,236
  5,515
  5,808
  6,114
  6,435
  6,771
  7,123
  7,492
  7,878
  8,284
  8,709
  9,154
Working capital, $m
  249
  267
  286
  305
  325
  347
  368
  391
  415
  440
  466
  493
  521
  550
  581
  613
  646
  681
  718
  756
  796
  838
  882
  928
  977
  1,027
  1,080
  1,136
  1,194
  1,255
Total debt, $m
  691
  765
  841
  921
  1,004
  1,091
  1,181
  1,274
  1,371
  1,473
  1,579
  1,689
  1,804
  1,925
  2,050
  2,181
  2,319
  2,462
  2,612
  2,769
  2,934
  3,106
  3,286
  3,475
  3,672
  3,880
  4,097
  4,325
  4,563
  4,814
Total liabilities, $m
  1,020
  1,094
  1,171
  1,251
  1,334
  1,420
  1,510
  1,603
  1,701
  1,802
  1,908
  2,019
  2,134
  2,254
  2,380
  2,511
  2,648
  2,791
  2,942
  3,099
  3,263
  3,435
  3,615
  3,804
  4,002
  4,209
  4,426
  4,654
  4,893
  5,143
Total equity, $m
  1,524
  1,634
  1,749
  1,868
  1,992
  2,121
  2,255
  2,395
  2,541
  2,692
  2,850
  3,015
  3,187
  3,367
  3,555
  3,751
  3,956
  4,170
  4,394
  4,629
  4,874
  5,131
  5,400
  5,682
  5,978
  6,287
  6,612
  6,952
  7,309
  7,683
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,544
  2,728
  2,920
  3,119
  3,326
  3,541
  3,765
  3,998
  4,242
  4,494
  4,758
  5,034
  5,321
  5,621
  5,935
  6,262
  6,604
  6,961
  7,336
  7,728
  8,137
  8,566
  9,015
  9,486
  9,980
  10,496
  11,038
  11,606
  12,202
  12,826
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599
  0.599

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  222
  238
  255
  273
  291
  310
  330
  350
  372
  394
  435
  459
  485
  511
  539
  568
  598
  630
  663
  698
  734
  772
  812
  854
  897
  943
  991
  1,041
  1,094
  1,149
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
  203
  214
  226
  214
  226
  239
  252
  266
  281
  296
  312
  329
  347
  365
  385
  405
  426
  448
  471
  495
  521
  548
  576
Funds from operations, $m
  360
  384
  410
  437
  464
  493
  523
  554
  586
  620
  649
  685
  724
  764
  806
  849
  895
  943
  992
  1,045
  1,099
  1,157
  1,217
  1,279
  1,345
  1,414
  1,486
  1,562
  1,642
  1,725
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
Cash from operations, $m
  342
  366
  391
  417
  444
  472
  501
  531
  562
  595
  623
  658
  696
  734
  775
  817
  861
  908
  956
  1,006
  1,059
  1,115
  1,173
  1,233
  1,297
  1,364
  1,433
  1,507
  1,583
  1,664
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -252
  -266
  -281
  -296
  -312
  -329
  -347
  -365
  -385
  -405
  -426
  -448
  -471
  -495
  -521
  -548
New CAPEX, $m
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -173
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -279
  -293
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -387
  -405
  -425
  -446
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -232
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -303
  -319
  -336
  -352
  -371
  -390
  -410
  -431
  -453
  -476
  -500
  -525
  -551
  -579
  -608
  -640
  -671
  -706
  -741
  -778
  -817
  -858
  -900
  -946
  -994
Free cash flow, $m
  110
  121
  132
  144
  156
  169
  182
  195
  210
  224
  233
  248
  265
  281
  299
  317
  336
  356
  376
  398
  420
  443
  467
  493
  519
  547
  576
  606
  637
  671
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  70
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  97
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  250
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  70
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  97
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  250
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  180
  195
  209
  224
  239
  255
  272
  289
  307
  326
  339
  359
  380
  402
  425
  448
  473
  499
  526
  555
  584
  615
  648
  681
  717
  754
  793
  834
  876
  921
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -310
  -325
  -340
  -357
  -374
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  74
  84
  94
  104
  115
  126
  137
  149
  161
  174
  180
  194
  208
  222
  237
  252
  268
  285
  302
  320
  339
  358
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
  493
  520
  547
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  71
  77
  82
  86
  89
  92
  93
  93
  93
  91
  86
  83
  79
  75
  70
  64
  58
  52
  47
  41
  35
  30
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Eagle Materials Inc. is a supplier of construction products, building materials and materials used for oil and natural gas extraction. The Company operates through five segments: Cement, Concrete and Aggregates, Gypsum Wallboard, Recycled Paperboard, and Oil and Gas Proppants. The Company's construction products are used in residential, industrial, commercial and infrastructure construction, and include cement, slag, concrete and aggregates. Its building materials include gypsum wallboard. Its basic material used for oil and natural gas extraction include frac sand and oil well cement. It sells cement in over six regional markets, including northern Nevada and California, the greater Chicago area, the Rocky Mountain region, the Central Plains region and Texas. It sells slag in the greater Chicago, Illinois area and the greater Midwest area. It has approximately three concrete and aggregates businesses. It also operates a recycled paperboard business.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Eagle Materials (EXP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.2
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 50.3%
Total Debt to Equity 57%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Total Capital 11.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Return On Equity 17.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
EBITDA Margin 33.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Operating Margin 24.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Net Profit Margin 16.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Effective Tax Rate 32.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Payout Ratio 9.6%

EXP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1386.52 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Eagle Materials. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Eagle Materials. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Eagle Materials, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Eagle Materials.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Eagle Materials.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Eagle Materials. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXP are equal to 121.8%.

Life of production assets of 15.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Eagle Materials operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXP is equal to 16.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1417.69 million for Eagle Materials - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.786 million for Eagle Materials is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Eagle Materials at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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