Intrinsic value of Expeditors International of Washington - EXPD

Previous Close

$66.58

  Intrinsic Value

$71.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+7%

Previous close

$66.58

 
Intrinsic value

$71.05

 
Up/down potential

+7%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXPD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.10
  15.89
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.14
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
Revenue, $m
  8,104
  9,392
  10,782
  12,273
  13,861
  15,544
  17,321
  19,189
  21,148
  23,197
  25,335
  27,564
  29,884
  32,298
  34,806
  37,414
  40,123
  42,939
  45,866
  48,909
  52,074
  55,367
  58,795
  62,366
  66,086
  69,964
  74,009
  78,231
  82,638
  87,240
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,213
  8,359
  9,596
  10,922
  12,335
  13,833
  15,414
  17,077
  18,820
  20,643
  22,545
  24,529
  26,594
  28,741
  30,974
  33,294
  35,705
  38,211
  40,816
  43,524
  46,340
  49,270
  52,321
  55,498
  58,809
  62,260
  65,860
  69,616
  73,538
  77,634
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,213
  8,359
  9,596
  10,922
  12,335
  13,833
  15,414
  17,077
  18,820
  20,643
  22,545
  24,529
  26,594
  28,741
  30,974
  33,294
  35,705
  38,211
  40,816
  43,524
  46,340
  49,270
  52,321
  55,498
  58,809
  62,260
  65,860
  69,616
  73,538
  77,634
Operating income, $m
  892
  1,033
  1,187
  1,351
  1,525
  1,711
  1,906
  2,112
  2,328
  2,554
  2,790
  3,035
  3,291
  3,556
  3,833
  4,120
  4,418
  4,728
  5,051
  5,386
  5,734
  6,097
  6,474
  6,867
  7,277
  7,704
  8,150
  8,614
  9,100
  9,606
EBITDA, $m
  950
  1,101
  1,263
  1,438
  1,624
  1,821
  2,030
  2,249
  2,478
  2,718
  2,969
  3,230
  3,502
  3,785
  4,079
  4,384
  4,702
  5,032
  5,375
  5,731
  6,102
  6,488
  6,890
  7,308
  7,744
  8,198
  8,672
  9,167
  9,683
  10,223
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  10
  22
  34
  47
  61
  76
  91
  108
  125
  143
  162
  181
  202
  223
  245
  268
  292
  316
  342
  369
  397
  425
  456
  487
  520
  554
  589
  626
  665
Earnings before tax, $m
  892
  1,023
  1,165
  1,317
  1,478
  1,650
  1,831
  2,021
  2,220
  2,429
  2,647
  2,873
  3,109
  3,355
  3,610
  3,875
  4,150
  4,437
  4,734
  5,044
  5,365
  5,700
  6,049
  6,412
  6,790
  7,185
  7,596
  8,025
  8,473
  8,942
Tax expense, $m
  241
  276
  314
  356
  399
  445
  494
  546
  599
  656
  715
  776
  840
  906
  975
  1,046
  1,121
  1,198
  1,278
  1,362
  1,449
  1,539
  1,633
  1,731
  1,833
  1,940
  2,051
  2,167
  2,288
  2,414
Net income, $m
  651
  747
  850
  961
  1,079
  1,204
  1,336
  1,475
  1,621
  1,773
  1,932
  2,098
  2,270
  2,449
  2,635
  2,829
  3,030
  3,239
  3,456
  3,682
  3,917
  4,161
  4,416
  4,681
  4,957
  5,245
  5,545
  5,858
  6,186
  6,527

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,651
  4,231
  4,857
  5,528
  6,243
  7,002
  7,802
  8,644
  9,526
  10,449
  11,412
  12,416
  13,461
  14,548
  15,679
  16,853
  18,074
  19,342
  20,660
  22,031
  23,457
  24,940
  26,484
  28,093
  29,768
  31,515
  33,338
  35,239
  37,224
  39,297
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,651
  4,231
  4,857
  5,528
  6,243
  7,002
  7,802
  8,644
  9,526
  10,449
  11,412
  12,416
  13,461
  14,548
  15,679
  16,853
  18,074
  19,342
  20,660
  22,031
  23,457
  24,940
  26,484
  28,093
  29,768
  31,515
  33,338
  35,239
  37,224
  39,297
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
Average production assets, $m
  624
  723
  830
  945
  1,067
  1,197
  1,334
  1,478
  1,628
  1,786
  1,951
  2,122
  2,301
  2,487
  2,680
  2,881
  3,090
  3,306
  3,532
  3,766
  4,010
  4,263
  4,527
  4,802
  5,089
  5,387
  5,699
  6,024
  6,363
  6,718
Working capital, $m
  462
  535
  615
  700
  790
  886
  987
  1,094
  1,205
  1,322
  1,444
  1,571
  1,703
  1,841
  1,984
  2,133
  2,287
  2,448
  2,614
  2,788
  2,968
  3,156
  3,351
  3,555
  3,767
  3,988
  4,219
  4,459
  4,710
  4,973
Total debt, $m
  193
  402
  628
  871
  1,129
  1,402
  1,691
  1,995
  2,314
  2,647
  2,995
  3,357
  3,734
  4,127
  4,535
  4,959
  5,399
  5,857
  6,333
  6,828
  7,343
  7,878
  8,436
  9,016
  9,621
  10,252
  10,910
  11,596
  12,313
  13,061
Total liabilities, $m
  1,318
  1,527
  1,753
  1,996
  2,254
  2,528
  2,817
  3,120
  3,439
  3,772
  4,120
  4,482
  4,860
  5,252
  5,660
  6,084
  6,525
  6,982
  7,458
  7,953
  8,468
  9,003
  9,561
  10,141
  10,746
  11,377
  12,035
  12,721
  13,438
  14,186
Total equity, $m
  2,333
  2,703
  3,104
  3,533
  3,990
  4,474
  4,986
  5,523
  6,087
  6,677
  7,292
  7,934
  8,602
  9,296
  10,019
  10,769
  11,549
  12,360
  13,202
  14,078
  14,989
  15,937
  16,924
  17,951
  19,022
  20,138
  21,303
  22,518
  23,786
  25,111
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,651
  4,230
  4,857
  5,529
  6,244
  7,002
  7,803
  8,643
  9,526
  10,449
  11,412
  12,416
  13,462
  14,548
  15,679
  16,853
  18,074
  19,342
  20,660
  22,031
  23,457
  24,940
  26,485
  28,092
  29,768
  31,515
  33,338
  35,239
  37,224
  39,297
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.150
  0.200
  0.250
  0.280
  0.310
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  651
  747
  850
  961
  1,079
  1,204
  1,336
  1,475
  1,621
  1,773
  1,932
  2,098
  2,270
  2,449
  2,635
  2,829
  3,030
  3,239
  3,456
  3,682
  3,917
  4,161
  4,416
  4,681
  4,957
  5,245
  5,545
  5,858
  6,186
  6,527
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  67
  77
  87
  99
  111
  123
  136
  150
  165
  179
  195
  211
  228
  246
  264
  283
  303
  324
  346
  368
  391
  415
  441
  467
  494
  523
  553
  584
  616
Funds from operations, $m
  709
  814
  927
  1,049
  1,178
  1,315
  1,460
  1,612
  1,771
  1,938
  2,111
  2,292
  2,481
  2,677
  2,881
  3,093
  3,313
  3,542
  3,780
  4,027
  4,285
  4,552
  4,831
  5,121
  5,424
  5,739
  6,068
  6,411
  6,769
  7,144
Change in working capital, $m
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  154
  161
  167
  173
  180
  188
  195
  204
  212
  221
  231
  241
  251
  262
Cash from operations, $m
  641
  741
  848
  964
  1,087
  1,219
  1,358
  1,505
  1,659
  1,821
  1,989
  2,165
  2,349
  2,540
  2,738
  2,944
  3,159
  3,382
  3,613
  3,854
  4,104
  4,365
  4,636
  4,918
  5,212
  5,518
  5,837
  6,170
  6,518
  6,881
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -57
  -66
  -76
  -87
  -98
  -110
  -122
  -136
  -149
  -164
  -179
  -195
  -211
  -228
  -246
  -264
  -283
  -303
  -324
  -346
  -368
  -391
  -415
  -441
  -467
  -494
  -523
  -553
  -584
New CAPEX, $m
  -89
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -299
  -311
  -325
  -339
  -354
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -138
  -156
  -173
  -191
  -209
  -228
  -247
  -266
  -287
  -307
  -329
  -351
  -374
  -397
  -421
  -447
  -473
  -500
  -528
  -558
  -590
  -622
  -655
  -690
  -727
  -766
  -805
  -848
  -892
  -938
Free cash flow, $m
  503
  584
  675
  773
  878
  992
  1,112
  1,239
  1,373
  1,514
  1,661
  1,815
  1,975
  2,143
  2,317
  2,498
  2,686
  2,881
  3,084
  3,296
  3,515
  3,743
  3,980
  4,227
  4,485
  4,752
  5,032
  5,323
  5,626
  5,943
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  193
  209
  226
  242
  258
  274
  289
  304
  319
  333
  348
  362
  377
  392
  408
  424
  441
  458
  476
  495
  515
  536
  557
  581
  605
  631
  658
  686
  717
  748
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  193
  209
  226
  242
  258
  274
  289
  304
  319
  333
  348
  362
  377
  392
  408
  424
  441
  458
  476
  495
  515
  536
  557
  581
  605
  631
  658
  686
  717
  748
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  696
  794
  901
  1,015
  1,137
  1,265
  1,401
  1,543
  1,691
  1,847
  2,008
  2,177
  2,353
  2,535
  2,725
  2,922
  3,126
  3,339
  3,560
  3,790
  4,030
  4,279
  4,538
  4,808
  5,090
  5,383
  5,689
  6,009
  6,343
  6,692
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -341
  -371
  -400
  -429
  -457
  -485
  -511
  -538
  -564
  -590
  -616
  -642
  -668
  -695
  -722
  -751
  -780
  -811
  -842
  -876
  -911
  -948
  -987
  -1,028
  -1,071
  -1,116
  -1,164
  -1,215
  -1,268
  -1,325
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  355
  423
  501
  586
  680
  781
  889
  1,005
  1,128
  1,257
  1,393
  1,536
  1,685
  1,840
  2,003
  2,171
  2,347
  2,529
  2,718
  2,915
  3,119
  3,331
  3,551
  3,780
  4,019
  4,267
  4,525
  4,794
  5,074
  5,367
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  340
  387
  436
  483
  527
  567
  601
  628
  648
  659
  661
  655
  641
  618
  588
  552
  511
  466
  418
  370
  323
  276
  233
  193
  156
  124
  97
  74
  55
  40
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is a logistics company. The Company is a third-party logistics provider, and purchases cargo space from carriers, including airlines and ocean shipping lines on a volume basis and resells that space to its customers. The Company provides a range of customer solutions, such as order management, time-definite transportation, warehousing and distribution, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance and customized logistics solutions. In addition, the Company's Project Cargo unit handles special project shipments that move through a single method or combination of air, ocean, and/or ground transportation. The Company's services include airfreight services, ocean freight and ocean services, and customs brokerage and other services. The Company operates along five geographic areas: the Americas; North Asia; South Asia; Europe, and the Middle East, Africa and India.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.8
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 6.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 34.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Total Capital 24.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Return On Equity 24.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Operating Margin 11%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Net Profit Margin 7.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Effective Tax Rate 37%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Payout Ratio 33.6%

EXPD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXPD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6920.948 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Expeditors International of Washington. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Expeditors International of Washington. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXPD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXPD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Expeditors International of Washington, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Expeditors International of Washington.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXPD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXPD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Expeditors International of Washington.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Expeditors International of Washington. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXPD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXPD are equal to 7.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Expeditors International of Washington operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXPD is equal to 5.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1991.858 million for Expeditors International of Washington - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 174.68 million for Expeditors International of Washington is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Expeditors International of Washington at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stocks Gain As Record Highs Loom; Top Growth Stock Breaks Out   [10:19AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Expeditors International: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Which Stocks Are The Best Mutual Funds Buying? Here's Their Shopping List   [Aug-03-18 04:10PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 5 Stocks to Buy at 52-Week Highs as Markets Rally   [Jun-14-18 04:45PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Expeditors Announces Semi-Annual Cash Dividend of $0.45   [May-09-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Expeditors International: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:53AM  Associated Press]

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