Intrinsic value of Exponent - EXPO

Previous Close

$49.81

  Intrinsic Value

$23.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-52%

Previous close

$49.81

 
Intrinsic value

$23.73

 
Up/down potential

-52%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXPO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
Revenue, $m
  379
  411
  445
  479
  516
  553
  592
  633
  675
  719
  765
  813
  862
  914
  968
  1,024
  1,083
  1,144
  1,208
  1,274
  1,344
  1,417
  1,493
  1,573
  1,657
  1,744
  1,836
  1,932
  2,032
  2,138
Variable operating expenses, $m
  260
  282
  305
  329
  354
  380
  406
  434
  463
  493
  524
  556
  590
  626
  662
  701
  741
  783
  827
  872
  920
  970
  1,022
  1,077
  1,134
  1,194
  1,257
  1,322
  1,391
  1,463
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
Total operating expenses, $m
  299
  322
  346
  370
  396
  423
  450
  479
  509
  540
  572
  605
  640
  678
  715
  755
  796
  839
  884
  931
  980
  1,031
  1,085
  1,141
  1,199
  1,261
  1,325
  1,392
  1,462
  1,536
Operating income, $m
  80
  89
  99
  109
  119
  130
  142
  154
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  237
  253
  269
  287
  305
  324
  343
  364
  386
  408
  432
  457
  483
  511
  540
  570
  601
EBITDA, $m
  87
  97
  107
  118
  129
  140
  152
  165
  178
  191
  205
  220
  236
  252
  268
  286
  304
  323
  343
  364
  386
  409
  433
  458
  484
  512
  540
  571
  603
  636
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
Earnings before tax, $m
  80
  88
  97
  107
  116
  126
  137
  148
  159
  171
  184
  197
  211
  225
  239
  255
  271
  287
  305
  323
  342
  362
  383
  405
  429
  453
  478
  505
  533
  562
Tax expense, $m
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  109
  116
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
Net income, $m
  58
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  135
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  280
  296
  313
  330
  349
  368
  389
  410

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  366
  397
  429
  463
  498
  535
  572
  612
  653
  695
  739
  785
  833
  883
  935
  989
  1,046
  1,105
  1,167
  1,231
  1,299
  1,369
  1,443
  1,520
  1,601
  1,685
  1,774
  1,866
  1,964
  2,065
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  366
  397
  429
  463
  498
  535
  572
  612
  653
  695
  739
  785
  833
  883
  935
  989
  1,046
  1,105
  1,167
  1,231
  1,299
  1,369
  1,443
  1,520
  1,601
  1,685
  1,774
  1,866
  1,964
  2,065
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.036
  1.035
  1.037
  1.035
  1.036
  1.034
  1.035
  1.034
  1.034
  1.035
  1.035
  1.036
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
  1.035
Average production assets, $m
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  124
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  234
  246
Working capital, $m
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
Total debt, $m
  13
  27
  42
  57
  73
  89
  106
  124
  142
  161
  181
  201
  223
  245
  268
  293
  318
  345
  372
  401
  431
  463
  496
  530
  567
  604
  644
  686
  729
  775
Total liabilities, $m
  164
  178
  192
  208
  223
  239
  256
  274
  292
  311
  331
  352
  373
  396
  419
  443
  469
  495
  523
  552
  582
  613
  646
  681
  717
  755
  795
  836
  880
  925
Total equity, $m
  202
  219
  237
  256
  275
  295
  316
  338
  360
  384
  408
  433
  460
  487
  516
  546
  577
  610
  644
  680
  717
  756
  796
  839
  884
  930
  979
  1,030
  1,084
  1,140
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  366
  397
  429
  464
  498
  534
  572
  612
  652
  695
  739
  785
  833
  883
  935
  989
  1,046
  1,105
  1,167
  1,232
  1,299
  1,369
  1,442
  1,520
  1,601
  1,685
  1,774
  1,866
  1,964
  2,065
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.120
  0.180
  0.220
  0.260
  0.300
  0.340
  0.370
  0.390
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  58
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  135
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  280
  296
  313
  330
  349
  368
  389
  410
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
Funds from operations, $m
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  190
  203
  215
  228
  242
  257
  272
  288
  304
  321
  340
  359
  379
  400
  422
  445
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  63
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  108
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  198
  211
  224
  237
  252
  266
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  372
  393
  414
  437
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Free cash flow, $m
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
  224
  238
  252
  267
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  371
  392
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  167
  177
  189
  200
  213
  226
  239
  253
  268
  283
  300
  317
  334
  353
  373
  393
  415
  438
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  103
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  154
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  171
  182
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  259
  274
  290
  307
  324
  342
  361
  381
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  148
  52
  55
  57
  59
  60
  61
  61
  61
  60
  58
  56
  53
  50
  47
  43
  39
  36
  32
  28
  24
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Exponent, Inc. (Exponent), along with its subsidiaries, is a science and engineering consulting company. Exponent provides engineering and scientific consulting services to clients around the world. Its service offerings are provided on a project-by-project basis. It operates in two segments: Engineering and Other Scientific, and Environmental and Health. Its Engineering and Other Scientific segment includes biomechanics, biomedical engineering, buildings and structures, civil engineering, construction consulting, materials and corrosion engineering, mechanical engineering, polymer science and materials chemistry, statistical and data sciences, thermal sciences and vehicle analysis services. Its Environmental and Health segment includes chemical regulation and food safety; ecological and biological sciences; environmental and earth sciences, and health sciences. Exponent serves clients in automotive, government, health, insurance, manufacturing and technology, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Exponent (EXPO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.1
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 180%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Return On Total Capital 17.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Return On Equity 17.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.6%
EBITDA Margin 23.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Net Profit Margin 14.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Effective Tax Rate 31.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 40.4%

EXPO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXPO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $347.799 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Exponent. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Exponent. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXPO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXPO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Exponent, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Exponent.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXPO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $38 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXPO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Exponent.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Exponent. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXPO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXPO are equal to 11.5%.

Life of production assets of 7.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Exponent operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXPO is equal to 7.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $289.088 million for Exponent - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.038 million for Exponent is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Exponent at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Exponent to Present at Upcoming Investor Conference   [Oct-25-18 08:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Stantec (STN) Surges: Stock Moves 5.7% Higher   [Oct-23-18 08:35AM  Zacks]
▶ Exponent: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Exponent Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Exponent, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ A Preview Of Exponent's Q3 Earnings   [08:31AM  Benzinga]
▶ Check If Insiders Are Selling Exponent Inc (NASDAQ:EXPO)   [Sep-05-18 01:55PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ UC lawsuit alleges UCSF employee steered building deals to contractor   [Aug-10-18 08:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Dennis Publishing sold to Exponent   [01:31AM  Financial Times]
▶ Exponent: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-19-18 04:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Exponent Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Exponent, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Have Investors Priced In Exponent Incs (NASDAQ:EXPO) Growth?   [Jun-22-18 09:48AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Exponent Announces Two-for-One Stock Split   [May-31-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Exponent Announces Executive Transition   [04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Exponent to Present at Upcoming Investor Conference   [May-22-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Exponent Announces Two-for-One Stock Split   [May-15-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Exponent Inc (NASDAQ:EXPO) Could Be A Buy   [10:11AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Exponent: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-19-18 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Exponent Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Exponent, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Exponent reports 4Q loss   [Feb-01-18 05:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Exponent, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ A Preview Of Exponent's Earnings   [10:36AM  Benzinga]
▶ Exponent Announces 2018 Succession Plan   [Dec-07-17 10:12PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Exponent to Attend Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Oct-25-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Exponent beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-18-17 04:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Exponent Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend   [04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Exponent, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:13AM  Capital Cube]

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