Intrinsic value of Express - EXPR

Previous Close

$10.11

  Intrinsic Value

$24.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+138%

Previous close

$10.11

 
Intrinsic value

$24.04

 
Up/down potential

+138%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXPR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,237
  2,288
  2,347
  2,413
  2,486
  2,567
  2,654
  2,749
  2,851
  2,960
  3,077
  3,202
  3,335
  3,476
  3,626
  3,785
  3,953
  4,131
  4,319
  4,517
  4,727
  4,948
  5,180
  5,426
  5,684
  5,956
  6,242
  6,543
  6,860
  7,194
Variable operating expenses, $m
  765
  782
  801
  823
  848
  874
  903
  935
  969
  1,005
  1,025
  1,066
  1,110
  1,157
  1,207
  1,260
  1,316
  1,376
  1,438
  1,504
  1,574
  1,647
  1,725
  1,807
  1,893
  1,983
  2,078
  2,179
  2,284
  2,395
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,398
  1,429
  1,460
  1,492
  1,525
  1,559
  1,593
  1,628
  1,664
  1,701
  1,738
  1,776
  1,815
  1,855
  1,896
  1,938
  1,980
  2,024
  2,068
  2,114
  2,161
  2,208
  2,257
  2,306
  2,357
  2,409
  2,462
  2,516
  2,571
  2,628
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,163
  2,211
  2,261
  2,315
  2,373
  2,433
  2,496
  2,563
  2,633
  2,706
  2,763
  2,842
  2,925
  3,012
  3,103
  3,198
  3,296
  3,400
  3,506
  3,618
  3,735
  3,855
  3,982
  4,113
  4,250
  4,392
  4,540
  4,695
  4,855
  5,023
Operating income, $m
  74
  78
  86
  97
  113
  133
  157
  185
  218
  254
  314
  360
  409
  463
  523
  587
  656
  732
  812
  899
  992
  1,092
  1,199
  1,313
  1,434
  1,564
  1,702
  1,849
  2,005
  2,170
EBITDA, $m
  160
  165
  174
  188
  206
  229
  255
  286
  321
  361
  405
  454
  507
  566
  629
  698
  773
  853
  939
  1,032
  1,131
  1,238
  1,351
  1,472
  1,602
  1,739
  1,885
  2,041
  2,206
  2,382
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
Earnings before tax, $m
  74
  77
  84
  95
  110
  129
  152
  179
  210
  245
  304
  347
  395
  448
  505
  567
  635
  708
  786
  870
  961
  1,058
  1,162
  1,272
  1,391
  1,517
  1,651
  1,794
  1,946
  2,107
Tax expense, $m
  20
  21
  23
  26
  30
  35
  41
  48
  57
  66
  82
  94
  107
  121
  136
  153
  171
  191
  212
  235
  259
  286
  314
  344
  375
  409
  446
  484
  525
  569
Net income, $m
  54
  56
  61
  70
  81
  94
  111
  131
  153
  179
  222
  254
  289
  327
  369
  414
  463
  517
  574
  635
  701
  772
  848
  929
  1,015
  1,107
  1,205
  1,309
  1,420
  1,538

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,209
  1,237
  1,269
  1,304
  1,344
  1,387
  1,435
  1,486
  1,541
  1,600
  1,663
  1,731
  1,803
  1,879
  1,960
  2,046
  2,137
  2,233
  2,335
  2,442
  2,555
  2,674
  2,800
  2,933
  3,072
  3,219
  3,374
  3,537
  3,708
  3,888
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,209
  1,237
  1,269
  1,304
  1,344
  1,387
  1,435
  1,486
  1,541
  1,600
  1,663
  1,731
  1,803
  1,879
  1,960
  2,046
  2,137
  2,233
  2,335
  2,442
  2,555
  2,674
  2,800
  2,933
  3,072
  3,219
  3,374
  3,537
  3,708
  3,888
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.850
  1.850
  1.849
  1.850
  1.850
  1.851
  1.849
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
Average production assets, $m
  658
  673
  690
  709
  731
  755
  780
  808
  838
  870
  905
  941
  980
  1,022
  1,066
  1,113
  1,162
  1,215
  1,270
  1,328
  1,390
  1,455
  1,523
  1,595
  1,671
  1,751
  1,835
  1,924
  2,017
  2,115
Working capital, $m
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  153
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
Total debt, $m
  12
  25
  39
  56
  74
  95
  116
  140
  166
  193
  223
  254
  287
  323
  360
  400
  442
  487
  534
  584
  636
  692
  750
  812
  876
  945
  1,016
  1,092
  1,171
  1,255
Total liabilities, $m
  561
  574
  589
  605
  624
  644
  666
  689
  715
  742
  772
  803
  836
  872
  909
  949
  992
  1,036
  1,083
  1,133
  1,186
  1,241
  1,299
  1,361
  1,426
  1,494
  1,566
  1,641
  1,721
  1,804
Total equity, $m
  648
  663
  680
  699
  720
  744
  769
  796
  826
  858
  891
  928
  966
  1,007
  1,051
  1,097
  1,145
  1,197
  1,251
  1,309
  1,370
  1,433
  1,501
  1,572
  1,647
  1,726
  1,809
  1,896
  1,988
  2,084
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,209
  1,237
  1,269
  1,304
  1,344
  1,388
  1,435
  1,485
  1,541
  1,600
  1,663
  1,731
  1,802
  1,879
  1,960
  2,046
  2,137
  2,233
  2,334
  2,442
  2,556
  2,674
  2,800
  2,933
  3,073
  3,220
  3,375
  3,537
  3,709
  3,888
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.130
  0.150
  0.180
  0.200
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  54
  56
  61
  70
  81
  94
  111
  131
  153
  179
  222
  254
  289
  327
  369
  414
  463
  517
  574
  635
  701
  772
  848
  929
  1,015
  1,107
  1,205
  1,309
  1,420
  1,538
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  86
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  107
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  160
  167
  175
  184
  192
  202
  211
Funds from operations, $m
  140
  143
  150
  160
  173
  190
  209
  231
  257
  286
  312
  348
  387
  429
  475
  526
  580
  638
  701
  768
  840
  918
  1,000
  1,088
  1,182
  1,282
  1,389
  1,502
  1,622
  1,750
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  138
  142
  148
  158
  171
  187
  206
  228
  254
  282
  309
  344
  383
  425
  471
  521
  574
  633
  695
  762
  834
  911
  993
  1,081
  1,174
  1,274
  1,380
  1,492
  1,612
  1,739
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -66
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -202
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -273
  -285
  -300
Free cash flow, $m
  62
  61
  64
  70
  79
  91
  105
  123
  143
  166
  187
  217
  249
  285
  324
  367
  414
  464
  518
  577
  640
  707
  779
  856
  939
  1,027
  1,121
  1,220
  1,327
  1,440
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  84
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  84
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  73
  74
  79
  86
  97
  111
  127
  146
  169
  194
  217
  248
  283
  321
  362
  407
  456
  509
  565
  627
  692
  762
  838
  918
  1,004
  1,095
  1,192
  1,296
  1,406
  1,523
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
Cash available for distribution, $m
  61
  59
  62
  67
  76
  87
  102
  119
  139
  162
  183
  212
  244
  280
  319
  361
  407
  457
  511
  569
  631
  698
  770
  847
  929
  1,016
  1,109
  1,209
  1,314
  1,427
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  59
  54
  54
  55
  59
  63
  69
  74
  80
  85
  87
  90
  93
  94
  94
  92
  89
  84
  79
  72
  65
  58
  50
  43
  36
  30
  24
  19
  14
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Express, Inc. is a specialty apparel and accessories retailer offering both women's and men's merchandise. The Company targets women and men between 20 and 30 years old. It offers an assortment of fashionable apparel and accessories to address fashion needs across multiple aspects of lifestyles, including work, casual, jeanswear and going-out occasions. It is engaged in the operation of its brick-and-mortar retail and outlet stores, e-commerce operations and franchise operations. It sells its products through its e-commerce Website, www.express.com and its mobile application, and has franchise agreements with franchisees that operate Express locations in Latin America. It operated 656 stores across the United States, in Canada and in Puerto Rico, including 104 factory outlet stores, as of January 28, 2017. Its products are created by its in-house design team. Its portfolio of apparel products includes brands, such as Portofino shirt, Editor pant and 1MX shirt.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Express (EXPR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.9
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 9.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Operating Margin 4.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

EXPR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXPR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2193 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Express. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Express. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXPR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXPR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Express, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Express.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXPR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1368 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXPR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Express.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Express. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXPR stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXPR are equal to 29.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Express operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXPR is equal to 3.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $636 million for Express - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79 million for Express is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Express at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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▶ What Are Analysts Recommending for Express Stock?   [Jan-19-18 10:31AM  Market Realist]
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▶ Target Corporation Could Be a Big Winner in Coming Months   [Dec-11-17 11:18AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Express, Inc. : December 8, 2017   [Dec-08-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]
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