Intrinsic value of Express - EXPR

Previous Close

$8.71

  Intrinsic Value

$12.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+45%

Previous close

$8.71

 
Intrinsic value

$12.65

 
Up/down potential

+45%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of EXPR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,181
  2,231
  2,288
  2,353
  2,424
  2,502
  2,587
  2,680
  2,779
  2,886
  3,000
  3,122
  3,251
  3,389
  3,535
  3,690
  3,854
  4,028
  4,211
  4,404
  4,608
  4,824
  5,051
  5,290
  5,542
  5,807
  6,086
  6,379
  6,688
  7,013
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,078
  2,125
  2,179
  2,240
  2,307
  2,381
  2,462
  2,549
  2,643
  2,743
  2,831
  2,946
  3,068
  3,198
  3,336
  3,483
  3,637
  3,801
  3,974
  4,157
  4,349
  4,552
  4,767
  4,992
  5,230
  5,480
  5,743
  6,021
  6,312
  6,619
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,078
  2,125
  2,179
  2,240
  2,307
  2,381
  2,462
  2,549
  2,643
  2,743
  2,831
  2,946
  3,068
  3,198
  3,336
  3,483
  3,637
  3,801
  3,974
  4,157
  4,349
  4,552
  4,767
  4,992
  5,230
  5,480
  5,743
  6,021
  6,312
  6,619
Operating income, $m
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  342
  359
  376
  394
EBITDA, $m
  200
  205
  210
  216
  223
  230
  238
  246
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  311
  325
  339
  354
  370
  387
  405
  423
  443
  464
  486
  509
  534
  559
  586
  615
  644
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
Earnings before tax, $m
  103
  105
  108
  110
  114
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  159
  164
  169
  175
  182
  189
  196
  203
  211
  219
  228
  238
  247
  258
  269
  280
  292
  305
  318
  332
Tax expense, $m
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
Net income, $m
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  181
  188
  196
  205
  213
  223
  232
  243

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,211
  1,239
  1,271
  1,306
  1,346
  1,389
  1,437
  1,488
  1,543
  1,602
  1,666
  1,733
  1,805
  1,882
  1,963
  2,049
  2,140
  2,236
  2,338
  2,445
  2,559
  2,678
  2,804
  2,937
  3,077
  3,224
  3,379
  3,542
  3,714
  3,894
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,211
  1,239
  1,271
  1,306
  1,346
  1,389
  1,437
  1,488
  1,543
  1,602
  1,666
  1,733
  1,805
  1,882
  1,963
  2,049
  2,140
  2,236
  2,338
  2,445
  2,559
  2,678
  2,804
  2,937
  3,077
  3,224
  3,379
  3,542
  3,714
  3,894
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.801
  1.801
  1.800
  1.802
  1.801
  1.801
  1.800
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.802
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
  1.801
Average production assets, $m
  536
  549
  563
  579
  596
  616
  637
  659
  684
  710
  738
  768
  800
  834
  870
  908
  948
  991
  1,036
  1,083
  1,134
  1,187
  1,242
  1,301
  1,363
  1,428
  1,497
  1,569
  1,645
  1,725
Working capital, $m
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
Total debt, $m
  11
  24
  38
  54
  72
  92
  114
  137
  162
  189
  218
  248
  281
  316
  353
  392
  433
  477
  523
  572
  623
  677
  735
  795
  858
  925
  995
  1,070
  1,147
  1,229
Total liabilities, $m
  550
  562
  577
  593
  611
  631
  652
  676
  701
  727
  756
  787
  820
  854
  891
  930
  972
  1,015
  1,061
  1,110
  1,162
  1,216
  1,273
  1,333
  1,397
  1,464
  1,534
  1,608
  1,686
  1,768
Total equity, $m
  661
  676
  694
  713
  735
  759
  784
  812
  843
  875
  909
  946
  986
  1,027
  1,072
  1,119
  1,168
  1,221
  1,277
  1,335
  1,397
  1,462
  1,531
  1,604
  1,680
  1,760
  1,845
  1,934
  2,028
  2,126
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,211
  1,238
  1,271
  1,306
  1,346
  1,390
  1,436
  1,488
  1,544
  1,602
  1,665
  1,733
  1,806
  1,881
  1,963
  2,049
  2,140
  2,236
  2,338
  2,445
  2,559
  2,678
  2,804
  2,937
  3,077
  3,224
  3,379
  3,542
  3,714
  3,894
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.170
  0.190
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546
  0.546

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  181
  188
  196
  205
  213
  223
  232
  243
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  98
  99
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  144
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
Funds from operations, $m
  173
  176
  180
  184
  189
  194
  200
  206
  213
  220
  223
  231
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  331
  345
  361
  377
  394
  412
  430
  450
  471
  493
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  172
  175
  179
  183
  188
  193
  199
  205
  212
  219
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  302
  315
  328
  342
  358
  373
  390
  408
  426
  446
  467
  488
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -303
  -318
Free cash flow, $m
  86
  85
  85
  86
  87
  88
  89
  90
  92
  94
  90
  92
  95
  97
  100
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  97
  98
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  117
  120
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  172
  179
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  84
  83
  83
  83
  83
  84
  84
  85
  87
  88
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  81
  76
  72
  68
  64
  61
  57
  53
  50
  46
  40
  37
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  19
  16
  14
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Express, Inc. is a specialty apparel and accessories retailer offering both women's and men's merchandise. The Company targets women and men between 20 and 30 years old. It offers an assortment of fashionable apparel and accessories to address fashion needs across multiple aspects of lifestyles, including work, casual, jeanswear and going-out occasions. It is engaged in the operation of its brick-and-mortar retail and outlet stores, e-commerce operations and franchise operations. It sells its products through its e-commerce Website, www.express.com and its mobile application, and has franchise agreements with franchisees that operate Express locations in Latin America. It operated 656 stores across the United States, in Canada and in Puerto Rico, including 104 factory outlet stores, as of January 28, 2017. Its products are created by its in-house design team. Its portfolio of apparel products includes brands, such as Portofino shirt, Editor pant and 1MX shirt.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Express (EXPR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 9.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Operating Margin 4.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

EXPR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EXPR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2138.03 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Express. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Express. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EXPR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EXPR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Express, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Express.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EXPR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EXPR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Express.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Express. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EXPR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EXPR are equal to 24.6%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Express operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EXPR is equal to 1.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $648.314 million for Express - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.524 million for Express is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Express at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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