Intrinsic value of Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - EYEG

Previous Close

$0.24

  Intrinsic Value

$0.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

Previous close

$0.24

 
Intrinsic value

$0.05

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of EYEG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Variable operating expenses, $m
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  165
  172
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  239
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  165
  172
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  239
Operating income, $m
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
EBITDA, $m
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
Earnings before tax, $m
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -212
  -223
  -234
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -212
  -223
  -234

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.200
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.167
  0.167
  0.231
  0.231
  0.214
  0.214
  0.200
  0.200
  0.188
  0.176
  0.176
  0.222
  0.211
  0.200
  0.190
  0.182
  0.217
  0.208
  0.200
  0.192
  0.185
  0.207
  0.200
  0.188
  0.212
Average production assets, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
Total liabilities, $m
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Total equity, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.050
  0.070
  0.100
  0.130
  0.160
  0.190
  0.230
  0.260
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.470
  0.500
  0.530
  0.550
  0.580
  0.600
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -212
  -223
  -234
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -233
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  73
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  73
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -73
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -68
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -65
  -68
  -66
  -64
  -62
  -60
  -58
  -55
  -53
  -50
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -34
  -31
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  7.0
  0.5
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a clinical-stage specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on developing and commercializing therapeutics and drug delivery systems for treating diseases of the eye. The Company's lead product, EGP-437, incorporates a reformulated topically active corticosteroid, dexamethasone phosphate, which is delivered into the ocular tissues through its drug delivery system, the EyeGate II Delivery System. The Company is developing EGP-437 for the treatment of various inflammatory conditions of the eye, including uveitis, a debilitating form of intraocular inflammation of the anterior portion of the uvea, such as the iris and/or ciliary body, and macular edema, an abnormal thickening of the macula associated with the accumulation of excess fluids in the extracellular space of the neurosensory retina. The EyeGate II Delivery System is designed to deliver optimal quantities of drugs to the anterior or posterior segments of the eye.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (EYEG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.2
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -130%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -158.5%
Return On Total Capital -433.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 399.1%
Return On Equity -433.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -1300%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -433.3%
Operating Margin -1300%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -433.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -1300%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -433.3%
Net Profit Margin -1300%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -433.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

EYEG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the EYEG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our EYEG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for EYEG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of EYEG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 3650%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for EYEG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the EYEG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for EYEG are equal to 141.5%.

Life of production assets of 145.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for EYEG is equal to -171.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8.936267 million for Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.800 million for Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Eyegate Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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