Intrinsic value of Fastenal - FAST

Previous Close

$52.00

  Intrinsic Value

$32.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-38%

Previous close

$52.00

 
Intrinsic value

$32.24

 
Up/down potential

-38%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FAST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 15.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
Revenue, $m
  4,966
  5,576
  6,221
  6,899
  7,610
  8,355
  9,132
  9,943
  10,787
  11,665
  12,577
  13,526
  14,511
  15,536
  16,600
  17,707
  18,859
  20,056
  21,303
  22,601
  23,954
  25,364
  26,834
  28,369
  29,970
  31,643
  33,391
  35,218
  37,128
  39,126
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,963
  4,450
  4,964
  5,505
  6,073
  6,667
  7,288
  7,934
  8,608
  9,308
  10,037
  10,794
  11,580
  12,398
  13,247
  14,130
  15,049
  16,005
  17,000
  18,036
  19,115
  20,240
  21,414
  22,638
  23,916
  25,251
  26,646
  28,104
  29,628
  31,222
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,966
  4,453
  4,967
  5,508
  6,076
  6,670
  7,291
  7,938
  8,612
  9,312
  10,041
  10,798
  11,584
  12,402
  13,251
  14,134
  15,053
  16,009
  17,005
  18,041
  19,120
  20,245
  21,419
  22,643
  23,921
  25,256
  26,651
  28,110
  29,634
  31,228
Operating income, $m
  1,000
  1,123
  1,253
  1,390
  1,534
  1,684
  1,841
  2,005
  2,175
  2,353
  2,537
  2,728
  2,927
  3,134
  3,349
  3,573
  3,805
  4,047
  4,299
  4,561
  4,834
  5,119
  5,416
  5,725
  6,049
  6,387
  6,740
  7,108
  7,494
  7,898
EBITDA, $m
  1,145
  1,286
  1,435
  1,591
  1,756
  1,928
  2,107
  2,295
  2,490
  2,692
  2,903
  3,122
  3,350
  3,587
  3,833
  4,089
  4,355
  4,631
  4,919
  5,219
  5,532
  5,858
  6,198
  6,552
  6,922
  7,309
  7,713
  8,135
  8,576
  9,038
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  22
  28
  34
  41
  48
  55
  62
  70
  78
  87
  95
  104
  114
  124
  134
  145
  156
  167
  179
  192
  205
  218
  233
  247
  263
  279
  296
  313
  331
  350
Earnings before tax, $m
  978
  1,095
  1,219
  1,350
  1,486
  1,630
  1,779
  1,935
  2,097
  2,266
  2,441
  2,624
  2,813
  3,010
  3,215
  3,428
  3,649
  3,879
  4,119
  4,369
  4,629
  4,900
  5,183
  5,478
  5,786
  6,108
  6,444
  6,795
  7,163
  7,547
Tax expense, $m
  264
  296
  329
  364
  401
  440
  480
  522
  566
  612
  659
  708
  760
  813
  868
  926
  985
  1,047
  1,112
  1,180
  1,250
  1,323
  1,399
  1,479
  1,562
  1,649
  1,740
  1,835
  1,934
  2,038
Net income, $m
  714
  799
  890
  985
  1,085
  1,190
  1,299
  1,412
  1,531
  1,654
  1,782
  1,915
  2,054
  2,198
  2,347
  2,502
  2,664
  2,832
  3,007
  3,189
  3,379
  3,577
  3,784
  3,999
  4,224
  4,459
  4,704
  4,961
  5,229
  5,509

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,291
  3,695
  4,122
  4,572
  5,043
  5,537
  6,052
  6,589
  7,148
  7,730
  8,335
  8,963
  9,617
  10,295
  11,001
  11,735
  12,497
  13,291
  14,117
  14,978
  15,874
  16,808
  17,783
  18,800
  19,861
  20,970
  22,128
  23,338
  24,604
  25,928
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,291
  3,695
  4,122
  4,572
  5,043
  5,537
  6,052
  6,589
  7,148
  7,730
  8,335
  8,963
  9,617
  10,295
  11,001
  11,735
  12,497
  13,291
  14,117
  14,978
  15,874
  16,808
  17,783
  18,800
  19,861
  20,970
  22,128
  23,338
  24,604
  25,928
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
  1.509
Average production assets, $m
  1,013
  1,137
  1,269
  1,407
  1,553
  1,704
  1,863
  2,028
  2,200
  2,380
  2,566
  2,759
  2,960
  3,169
  3,387
  3,612
  3,847
  4,091
  4,346
  4,611
  4,887
  5,174
  5,474
  5,787
  6,114
  6,455
  6,812
  7,184
  7,574
  7,982
Working capital, $m
  1,663
  1,868
  2,084
  2,311
  2,550
  2,799
  3,059
  3,331
  3,614
  3,908
  4,213
  4,531
  4,861
  5,205
  5,561
  5,932
  6,318
  6,719
  7,136
  7,571
  8,024
  8,497
  8,989
  9,503
  10,040
  10,600
  11,186
  11,798
  12,438
  13,107
Total debt, $m
  523
  636
  756
  882
  1,014
  1,152
  1,296
  1,446
  1,603
  1,766
  1,935
  2,111
  2,294
  2,484
  2,682
  2,887
  3,101
  3,323
  3,554
  3,795
  4,046
  4,308
  4,581
  4,865
  5,162
  5,473
  5,797
  6,136
  6,491
  6,861
Total liabilities, $m
  921
  1,035
  1,154
  1,280
  1,412
  1,550
  1,695
  1,845
  2,002
  2,164
  2,334
  2,510
  2,693
  2,883
  3,080
  3,286
  3,499
  3,721
  3,953
  4,194
  4,445
  4,706
  4,979
  5,264
  5,561
  5,871
  6,196
  6,535
  6,889
  7,260
Total equity, $m
  2,369
  2,660
  2,968
  3,292
  3,631
  3,986
  4,357
  4,744
  5,147
  5,566
  6,001
  6,454
  6,924
  7,413
  7,921
  8,449
  8,998
  9,570
  10,164
  10,784
  11,429
  12,102
  12,804
  13,536
  14,300
  15,098
  15,932
  16,804
  17,715
  18,668
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,290
  3,695
  4,122
  4,572
  5,043
  5,536
  6,052
  6,589
  7,149
  7,730
  8,335
  8,964
  9,617
  10,296
  11,001
  11,735
  12,497
  13,291
  14,117
  14,978
  15,874
  16,808
  17,783
  18,800
  19,861
  20,969
  22,128
  23,339
  24,604
  25,928
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  714
  799
  890
  985
  1,085
  1,190
  1,299
  1,412
  1,531
  1,654
  1,782
  1,915
  2,054
  2,198
  2,347
  2,502
  2,664
  2,832
  3,007
  3,189
  3,379
  3,577
  3,784
  3,999
  4,224
  4,459
  4,704
  4,961
  5,229
  5,509
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  145
  162
  181
  201
  222
  243
  266
  290
  314
  340
  367
  394
  423
  453
  484
  516
  550
  584
  621
  659
  698
  739
  782
  827
  873
  922
  973
  1,026
  1,082
  1,140
Funds from operations, $m
  858
  962
  1,071
  1,186
  1,307
  1,433
  1,565
  1,702
  1,845
  1,994
  2,149
  2,310
  2,477
  2,650
  2,831
  3,018
  3,213
  3,417
  3,628
  3,848
  4,077
  4,316
  4,566
  4,826
  5,097
  5,381
  5,677
  5,987
  6,311
  6,650
Change in working capital, $m
  193
  204
  216
  227
  238
  249
  260
  271
  283
  294
  306
  318
  330
  343
  357
  371
  386
  401
  418
  435
  453
  472
  493
  514
  537
  560
  585
  612
  640
  669
Cash from operations, $m
  666
  757
  855
  959
  1,068
  1,184
  1,304
  1,431
  1,563
  1,700
  1,843
  1,992
  2,146
  2,307
  2,474
  2,648
  2,828
  3,015
  3,210
  3,413
  3,624
  3,844
  4,073
  4,312
  4,561
  4,821
  5,092
  5,375
  5,671
  5,980
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -128
  -145
  -162
  -181
  -201
  -222
  -243
  -266
  -290
  -314
  -340
  -367
  -394
  -423
  -453
  -484
  -516
  -550
  -584
  -621
  -659
  -698
  -739
  -782
  -827
  -873
  -922
  -973
  -1,026
  -1,082
New CAPEX, $m
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -300
  -313
  -327
  -341
  -357
  -373
  -390
  -408
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -244
  -269
  -294
  -319
  -346
  -374
  -402
  -431
  -462
  -493
  -526
  -561
  -595
  -632
  -670
  -710
  -751
  -794
  -838
  -886
  -935
  -986
  -1,039
  -1,095
  -1,154
  -1,214
  -1,279
  -1,346
  -1,416
  -1,490
Free cash flow, $m
  421
  488
  561
  639
  722
  810
  902
  999
  1,101
  1,207
  1,317
  1,432
  1,551
  1,675
  1,804
  1,938
  2,077
  2,221
  2,371
  2,527
  2,690
  2,858
  3,034
  3,217
  3,407
  3,606
  3,813
  4,029
  4,255
  4,491
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  108
  113
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  205
  214
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  339
  354
  371
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  108
  113
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  205
  214
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  339
  354
  371
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  529
  601
  681
  765
  854
  948
  1,047
  1,150
  1,257
  1,369
  1,486
  1,608
  1,734
  1,865
  2,002
  2,143
  2,291
  2,444
  2,603
  2,768
  2,940
  3,120
  3,307
  3,501
  3,704
  3,916
  4,137
  4,368
  4,609
  4,861
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -272
  -291
  -308
  -324
  -340
  -355
  -371
  -387
  -403
  -419
  -435
  -453
  -470
  -489
  -508
  -528
  -549
  -571
  -595
  -619
  -645
  -673
  -702
  -732
  -764
  -798
  -834
  -872
  -911
  -953
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  257
  310
  373
  441
  515
  593
  676
  763
  855
  951
  1,051
  1,155
  1,264
  1,377
  1,494
  1,615
  1,741
  1,872
  2,008
  2,149
  2,295
  2,447
  2,605
  2,769
  2,940
  3,118
  3,303
  3,497
  3,698
  3,908
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  246
  284
  325
  364
  399
  430
  456
  477
  491
  498
  499
  493
  480
  462
  439
  410
  379
  345
  309
  273
  237
  203
  171
  141
  114
  91
  71
  54
  40
  29
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Fastenal Company is engaged in wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies. The Company is engaged in fastener distribution, and non-fastener maintenance and supply business. As of December 31, 2016, it distributed these supplies through a network of approximately 2,500 stores. Its customers are in the manufacturing and non-residential construction markets. The manufacturing market includes both original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO). The non-residential construction market includes general, electrical, plumbing, sheet metal and road contractors. Other users of its products include farmers, truckers, railroads, oil exploration, production and refinement companies, mining companies, federal, state, and local governmental entities, schools and certain retail trades. Its original product offerings are fasteners and other industrial and construction supplies, many of which are sold under the Fastenal product name.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fastenal (FAST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.1
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 7.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 46.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 21.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 19.7%
Total Debt to Equity 20.2%
Interest Coverage 133
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Return On Total Capital 22.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Return On Equity 26.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.3%
EBITDA Margin 22.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Operating Margin 20.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Net Profit Margin 12.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 36.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 69.5%

FAST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FAST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4390.5 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fastenal. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Fastenal. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FAST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FAST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fastenal, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fastenal.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FAST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FAST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Fastenal.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fastenal. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FAST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FAST are equal to 20.4%.

Life of production assets of 7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fastenal operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FAST is equal to 33.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2096.9 million for Fastenal - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 287.689 million for Fastenal is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fastenal at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $15.0 billion.

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