Intrinsic value of Fortress Biotech - FBIO

Previous Close

$1.11

  Intrinsic Value

$0.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$1.11

 
Intrinsic value

$0.09

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FBIO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.90
  23.81
  21.93
  20.24
  18.71
  17.34
  16.11
  15.00
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
Revenue, $m
  236
  292
  357
  429
  509
  597
  693
  797
  909
  1,028
  1,154
  1,288
  1,428
  1,575
  1,729
  1,890
  2,058
  2,233
  2,414
  2,603
  2,799
  3,003
  3,215
  3,436
  3,665
  3,903
  4,151
  4,409
  4,678
  4,957
Variable operating expenses, $m
  283
  350
  425
  511
  606
  710
  824
  947
  1,079
  1,220
  1,367
  1,524
  1,691
  1,865
  2,047
  2,238
  2,436
  2,643
  2,858
  3,082
  3,314
  3,556
  3,807
  4,068
  4,339
  4,621
  4,914
  5,220
  5,538
  5,869
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  102
  104
  106
  109
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
Total operating expenses, $m
  347
  416
  492
  580
  676
  782
  897
  1,022
  1,156
  1,298
  1,447
  1,606
  1,775
  1,950
  2,134
  2,327
  2,527
  2,736
  2,953
  3,179
  3,413
  3,658
  3,911
  4,174
  4,448
  4,732
  5,027
  5,336
  5,656
  5,990
Operating income, $m
  -111
  -123
  -136
  -151
  -167
  -185
  -204
  -225
  -247
  -271
  -292
  -319
  -346
  -375
  -405
  -437
  -470
  -504
  -539
  -576
  -614
  -654
  -695
  -738
  -783
  -829
  -877
  -927
  -979
  -1,033
EBITDA, $m
  -106
  -117
  -130
  -144
  -159
  -176
  -195
  -214
  -236
  -258
  -282
  -307
  -333
  -361
  -390
  -420
  -451
  -484
  -518
  -553
  -589
  -627
  -667
  -707
  -750
  -794
  -840
  -887
  -937
  -988
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  8
  4
  8
  13
  19
  25
  31
  39
  47
  55
  64
  74
  84
  95
  106
  118
  130
  143
  156
  170
  184
  199
  214
  231
  247
  265
  283
  302
  321
  342
Earnings before tax, $m
  -119
  -127
  -145
  -164
  -186
  -210
  -236
  -264
  -294
  -326
  -357
  -392
  -430
  -470
  -511
  -554
  -600
  -646
  -695
  -746
  -798
  -853
  -910
  -969
  -1,030
  -1,094
  -1,160
  -1,229
  -1,300
  -1,375
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -119
  -127
  -145
  -164
  -186
  -210
  -236
  -264
  -294
  -326
  -357
  -392
  -430
  -470
  -511
  -554
  -600
  -646
  -695
  -746
  -798
  -853
  -910
  -969
  -1,030
  -1,094
  -1,160
  -1,229
  -1,300
  -1,375

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  162
  201
  245
  294
  350
  410
  476
  548
  624
  706
  793
  884
  981
  1,082
  1,188
  1,298
  1,413
  1,533
  1,658
  1,788
  1,923
  2,063
  2,208
  2,360
  2,517
  2,681
  2,851
  3,028
  3,213
  3,405
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  162
  201
  245
  294
  350
  410
  476
  548
  624
  706
  793
  884
  981
  1,082
  1,188
  1,298
  1,413
  1,533
  1,658
  1,788
  1,923
  2,063
  2,208
  2,360
  2,517
  2,681
  2,851
  3,028
  3,213
  3,405
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.457
  1.453
  1.457
  1.459
  1.454
  1.456
  1.456
  1.454
  1.457
  1.456
  1.455
  1.457
  1.456
  1.456
  1.455
  1.456
  1.456
  1.457
  1.456
  1.456
  1.456
  1.456
  1.456
  1.456
  1.456
  1.456
  1.456
  1.456
  1.456
  1.456
Average production assets, $m
  33
  40
  49
  59
  70
  82
  96
  110
  125
  142
  159
  178
  197
  217
  239
  261
  284
  308
  333
  359
  386
  414
  444
  474
  506
  539
  573
  608
  645
  684
Working capital, $m
  -52
  -65
  -79
  -95
  -113
  -133
  -154
  -177
  -202
  -228
  -256
  -286
  -317
  -350
  -384
  -420
  -457
  -496
  -536
  -578
  -621
  -667
  -714
  -763
  -814
  -866
  -921
  -979
  -1,038
  -1,101
Total debt, $m
  33
  67
  107
  152
  201
  256
  315
  379
  448
  522
  600
  683
  769
  860
  956
  1,055
  1,159
  1,267
  1,379
  1,496
  1,617
  1,743
  1,874
  2,010
  2,152
  2,299
  2,452
  2,612
  2,778
  2,951
Total liabilities, $m
  146
  181
  220
  265
  315
  369
  429
  493
  562
  635
  713
  796
  883
  974
  1,069
  1,168
  1,272
  1,380
  1,492
  1,609
  1,730
  1,856
  1,988
  2,124
  2,265
  2,413
  2,566
  2,725
  2,891
  3,064
Total equity, $m
  16
  20
  24
  29
  35
  41
  48
  55
  62
  71
  79
  88
  98
  108
  119
  130
  141
  153
  166
  179
  192
  206
  221
  236
  252
  268
  285
  303
  321
  340
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  162
  201
  244
  294
  350
  410
  477
  548
  624
  706
  792
  884
  981
  1,082
  1,188
  1,298
  1,413
  1,533
  1,658
  1,788
  1,922
  2,062
  2,209
  2,360
  2,517
  2,681
  2,851
  3,028
  3,212
  3,404
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.010
  3.360
  4.370
  5.150
  5.760
  6.240
  6.620
  6.930
  7.180
  7.390
  7.570
  7.720
  7.840
  7.950
  8.050
  8.130
  8.200
  8.260
  8.320
  8.370
  8.410
  8.450
  8.490
  8.520
  8.550
  8.580
  8.600
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -119
  -127
  -145
  -164
  -186
  -210
  -236
  -264
  -294
  -326
  -357
  -392
  -430
  -470
  -511
  -554
  -600
  -646
  -695
  -746
  -798
  -853
  -910
  -969
  -1,030
  -1,094
  -1,160
  -1,229
  -1,300
  -1,375
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
Funds from operations, $m
  -114
  -121
  -138
  -157
  -178
  -201
  -226
  -253
  -282
  -313
  -346
  -381
  -417
  -456
  -496
  -538
  -581
  -626
  -674
  -722
  -773
  -826
  -881
  -938
  -997
  -1,059
  -1,123
  -1,189
  -1,258
  -1,330
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
Cash from operations, $m
  -103
  -108
  -124
  -141
  -160
  -181
  -205
  -230
  -258
  -287
  -318
  -351
  -386
  -423
  -462
  -502
  -544
  -588
  -633
  -681
  -730
  -781
  -834
  -889
  -946
  -1,006
  -1,067
  -1,132
  -1,199
  -1,268
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
Free cash flow, $m
  -111
  -118
  -135
  -154
  -175
  -198
  -223
  -251
  -280
  -311
  -345
  -380
  -417
  -456
  -497
  -540
  -584
  -630
  -678
  -728
  -780
  -834
  -890
  -948
  -1,009
  -1,071
  -1,137
  -1,205
  -1,275
  -1,349
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -34
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  187
  131
  149
  169
  191
  216
  242
  271
  302
  334
  365
  402
  440
  480
  522
  566
  611
  658
  708
  759
  812
  867
  924
  984
  1,046
  1,110
  1,177
  1,246
  1,319
  1,394
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  153
  166
  189
  214
  241
  271
  301
  335
  371
  408
  443
  484
  527
  571
  617
  665
  715
  766
  820
  876
  933
  993
  1,055
  1,120
  1,188
  1,257
  1,330
  1,405
  1,485
  1,567
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  42
  47
  53
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  98
  104
  109
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  218
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -187
  -131
  -149
  -169
  -191
  -216
  -242
  -271
  -302
  -334
  -365
  -402
  -440
  -480
  -522
  -566
  -611
  -658
  -708
  -759
  -812
  -867
  -924
  -984
  -1,046
  -1,110
  -1,177
  -1,246
  -1,319
  -1,394
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  103
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -42
  -84
  -96
  -109
  -125
  -144
  -164
  -186
  -211
  -238
  -267
  -298
  -330
  -365
  -402
  -440
  -480
  -522
  -566
  -611
  -659
  -708
  -759
  -812
  -867
  -924
  -983
  -1,045
  -1,109
  -1,176
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -40
  -77
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -121
  -125
  -127
  -127
  -126
  -123
  -118
  -112
  -104
  -96
  -87
  -78
  -68
  -59
  -50
  -41
  -34
  -27
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  6.2
  0.8
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Fortress Biotech, Inc., formerly Coronado Biosciences, Inc., is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is involved in the development of immunotherapy agents for the treatment of autoimmune diseases and cancer. Its sole product candidate is CNDO-109. The Company is also focused on acquiring, developing and commercializing pharmaceutical and biotechnology products. The Company's product, CNDO-109, is a lysate (disrupted Closteroviridae (CTV)-1 cells, cell membrane fragments, cell proteins and other cellular components) that activates donor Natural Killer (NK) cells. CTV-1 is a leukemic cell line re-classified as a T-cell acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL). The Company holds the license to develop and commercialize CNDO-109 to activate NK cells for the treatment of cancer-related and other conditions, and a non-exclusive license to certain clinical data solely for use in the Investigational new drug (IND) for CNDO-109. The Company is conducting the Phase I clinical studies of CNDO-109.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Fortress Biotech (FBIO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1500%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 450%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 46
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 68.4%
Total Debt to Equity 73.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -37.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.7%
Return On Total Capital -75.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -52%
Return On Equity -115.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -72.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 100%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
EBITDA Margin -437.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1945.8%
Operating Margin -412.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1804.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -443.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1947.9%
Net Profit Margin -343.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1714.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

FBIO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FBIO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $187.584 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Fortress Biotech. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Fortress Biotech. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FBIO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FBIO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Fortress Biotech, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Fortress Biotech.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FBIO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 120.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $63 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FBIO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.3% for Fortress Biotech.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Fortress Biotech. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FBIO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FBIO are equal to 13.8%.

Life of production assets of 15.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Fortress Biotech operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FBIO is equal to -22.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $52.573 million for Fortress Biotech - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.343 million for Fortress Biotech is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Fortress Biotech at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Fortress Biotech: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Fortress Biotech: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mustang Bio to Present at June Investor Conferences   [May-31-18 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mustang Bio Reports First Quarter 2018 Financial Results   [May-14-18 05:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fortress Biotech: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 07:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mustang Bio to Present at Biotech Innovations Conference   [Apr-04-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mustang Bio to Present at CAR-T Congress USA   [Mar-19-18 07:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mustang Bio to Present at March Investor Conferences   [Mar-13-18 07:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Checkpoint Therapeutics to Present at Biotech Showcase 2018   [Jan-03-18 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Big apple-based biotechs new gene therapy subsidiary inks UNC licensing deals   [Dec-05-17 02:44PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Fortress Biotech reports 3Q loss   [Nov-09-17 06:33PM  Associated Press]

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