Intrinsic value of FTI Consulting - FCN

Previous Close

$80.34

  Intrinsic Value

$54.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-32%

Previous close

$80.34

 
Intrinsic value

$54.41

 
Up/down potential

-32%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of FCN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,844
  1,887
  1,935
  1,989
  2,050
  2,116
  2,188
  2,266
  2,350
  2,440
  2,537
  2,640
  2,749
  2,866
  2,989
  3,120
  3,259
  3,406
  3,561
  3,724
  3,897
  4,079
  4,271
  4,473
  4,686
  4,910
  5,146
  5,395
  5,656
  5,931
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,698
  1,734
  1,775
  1,822
  1,873
  1,930
  1,991
  2,058
  2,129
  2,206
  2,164
  2,251
  2,345
  2,444
  2,550
  2,662
  2,780
  2,905
  3,037
  3,177
  3,324
  3,479
  3,643
  3,815
  3,997
  4,188
  4,389
  4,601
  4,824
  5,058
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,698
  1,734
  1,775
  1,822
  1,873
  1,930
  1,991
  2,058
  2,129
  2,206
  2,164
  2,251
  2,345
  2,444
  2,550
  2,662
  2,780
  2,905
  3,037
  3,177
  3,324
  3,479
  3,643
  3,815
  3,997
  4,188
  4,389
  4,601
  4,824
  5,058
Operating income, $m
  146
  153
  160
  168
  177
  186
  197
  208
  221
  234
  373
  388
  404
  422
  440
  459
  479
  501
  524
  548
  573
  600
  628
  658
  689
  722
  757
  793
  832
  872
EBITDA, $m
  405
  414
  425
  437
  450
  464
  480
  497
  516
  536
  557
  579
  603
  629
  656
  685
  715
  748
  782
  817
  855
  895
  937
  982
  1,029
  1,078
  1,130
  1,184
  1,241
  1,302
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
Earnings before tax, $m
  120
  125
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  322
  333
  345
  358
  371
  386
  401
  417
  434
  452
  471
  491
  512
  534
  557
  582
  608
  635
  664
  694
Tax expense, $m
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
Net income, $m
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  110
  115
  122
  129
  136
  235
  243
  252
  261
  271
  282
  293
  304
  317
  330
  344
  358
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  506

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,302
  2,355
  2,416
  2,484
  2,559
  2,642
  2,732
  2,829
  2,934
  3,047
  3,167
  3,296
  3,432
  3,578
  3,732
  3,896
  4,069
  4,252
  4,445
  4,650
  4,865
  5,092
  5,332
  5,584
  5,850
  6,130
  6,425
  6,735
  7,061
  7,404
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,302
  2,355
  2,416
  2,484
  2,559
  2,642
  2,732
  2,829
  2,934
  3,047
  3,167
  3,296
  3,432
  3,578
  3,732
  3,896
  4,069
  4,252
  4,445
  4,650
  4,865
  5,092
  5,332
  5,584
  5,850
  6,130
  6,425
  6,735
  7,061
  7,404
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
  0.801
Average production assets, $m
  1,335
  1,366
  1,401
  1,440
  1,484
  1,532
  1,584
  1,641
  1,701
  1,767
  1,837
  1,911
  1,991
  2,075
  2,164
  2,259
  2,360
  2,466
  2,578
  2,696
  2,821
  2,953
  3,092
  3,239
  3,393
  3,555
  3,726
  3,906
  4,095
  4,294
Working capital, $m
  -96
  -98
  -101
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -308
Total debt, $m
  418
  443
  471
  503
  539
  578
  620
  666
  716
  769
  826
  887
  951
  1,020
  1,093
  1,170
  1,252
  1,338
  1,429
  1,526
  1,627
  1,735
  1,848
  1,967
  2,092
  2,225
  2,364
  2,510
  2,664
  2,826
Total liabilities, $m
  1,087
  1,112
  1,140
  1,172
  1,208
  1,247
  1,289
  1,335
  1,385
  1,438
  1,495
  1,555
  1,620
  1,689
  1,762
  1,839
  1,921
  2,007
  2,098
  2,195
  2,296
  2,404
  2,517
  2,636
  2,761
  2,893
  3,033
  3,179
  3,333
  3,495
Total equity, $m
  1,216
  1,244
  1,276
  1,311
  1,351
  1,395
  1,442
  1,494
  1,549
  1,609
  1,672
  1,740
  1,812
  1,889
  1,971
  2,057
  2,148
  2,245
  2,347
  2,455
  2,569
  2,689
  2,815
  2,949
  3,089
  3,237
  3,392
  3,556
  3,728
  3,909
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,303
  2,356
  2,416
  2,483
  2,559
  2,642
  2,731
  2,829
  2,934
  3,047
  3,167
  3,295
  3,432
  3,578
  3,733
  3,896
  4,069
  4,252
  4,445
  4,650
  4,865
  5,093
  5,332
  5,585
  5,850
  6,130
  6,425
  6,735
  7,061
  7,404
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  110
  115
  122
  129
  136
  235
  243
  252
  261
  271
  282
  293
  304
  317
  330
  344
  358
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  506
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  258
  261
  265
  269
  273
  278
  283
  289
  295
  302
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  324
  339
  356
  373
  391
  409
  429
Funds from operations, $m
  346
  352
  360
  368
  378
  388
  399
  411
  424
  437
  418
  434
  451
  469
  488
  508
  529
  551
  575
  600
  626
  654
  683
  714
  746
  780
  816
  854
  894
  936
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  348
  355
  362
  371
  381
  391
  403
  415
  428
  442
  423
  440
  457
  475
  494
  514
  536
  559
  583
  608
  635
  663
  693
  724
  757
  792
  829
  867
  908
  950
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -131
  -134
  -137
  -140
  -144
  -148
  -153
  -158
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -309
  -324
  -339
  -356
  -373
  -391
  -409
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -157
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -225
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -359
  -376
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -455
  -478
  -501
  -527
  -553
  -580
  -608
Free cash flow, $m
  191
  190
  191
  192
  193
  195
  197
  200
  203
  207
  177
  181
  186
  191
  197
  203
  210
  217
  224
  232
  240
  249
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  315
  328
  342
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  21
  25
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  21
  25
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  212
  215
  219
  224
  229
  234
  240
  246
  253
  260
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  280
  291
  303
  315
  328
  342
  356
  372
  388
  405
  423
  441
  461
  482
  504
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
Cash available for distribution, $m
  189
  187
  187
  188
  189
  190
  192
  194
  197
  200
  170
  174
  178
  183
  188
  194
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  236
  245
  255
  264
  275
  286
  297
  310
  323
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  181
  172
  163
  155
  146
  138
  130
  122
  113
  105
  81
  74
  68
  61
  55
  49
  43
  38
  33
  28
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

FTI Consulting, Inc. is a business advisory company. The Company operates through five segments: Corporate Finance & Restructuring, Forensic and Litigation Consulting, Economic Consulting, Technology and Strategic Communications. The Company provides advice and services, such as restructuring (including bankruptcy), capital formation and indebtedness, interim business management, performance improvements, forensic accounting and litigation matters, international arbitrations, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), antitrust and competition matters, securities litigation, electronic discovery (or e-discovery), management and retrieval of electronically stored information (ESI), reputation management and strategic communications. The Company collaborates with Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) and their finance and accounting organizations and uses engagement tools to provide transformation services, manage risk, deliver business intelligence capabilities, and prepare for and execute events.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  FTI Consulting (FCN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 39.3
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.3%
Total Debt to Equity 30.3%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 5.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 7.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34%
EBITDA Margin 11%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Operating Margin 7.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Effective Tax Rate 32.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

FCN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FCN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1808 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by FTI Consulting. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of FTI Consulting. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FCN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FCN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of FTI Consulting, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of FTI Consulting.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FCN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FCN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for FTI Consulting.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for FTI Consulting. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FCN stock is equal to 0.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FCN are equal to 72.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in FTI Consulting operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FCN is equal to -5.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1192 million for FTI Consulting - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38 million for FTI Consulting is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of FTI Consulting at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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