Intrinsic value of Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR - FENG

Previous Close

$3.07

  Intrinsic Value

$4.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+45%

Previous close

$3.07

 
Intrinsic value

$4.44

 
Up/down potential

+45%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of FENG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.40
  13.46
  12.61
  11.85
  11.17
  10.55
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.65
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.67
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
Revenue, $m
  272
  309
  348
  389
  433
  478
  526
  576
  628
  683
  739
  798
  859
  922
  988
  1,057
  1,128
  1,202
  1,279
  1,359
  1,443
  1,530
  1,621
  1,715
  1,814
  1,917
  2,024
  2,136
  2,254
  2,376
Variable operating expenses, $m
  266
  301
  339
  379
  422
  466
  513
  562
  612
  665
  720
  778
  837
  899
  963
  1,030
  1,099
  1,172
  1,247
  1,325
  1,406
  1,491
  1,579
  1,672
  1,768
  1,868
  1,973
  2,082
  2,196
  2,316
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  266
  301
  339
  379
  422
  466
  513
  562
  612
  665
  720
  778
  837
  899
  963
  1,030
  1,099
  1,172
  1,247
  1,325
  1,406
  1,491
  1,579
  1,672
  1,768
  1,868
  1,973
  2,082
  2,196
  2,316
Operating income, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
EBITDA, $m
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
Tax expense, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  485
  550
  619
  693
  770
  851
  936
  1,025
  1,118
  1,215
  1,315
  1,420
  1,528
  1,641
  1,759
  1,880
  2,007
  2,139
  2,276
  2,419
  2,568
  2,722
  2,884
  3,052
  3,227
  3,410
  3,602
  3,801
  4,010
  4,229
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  485
  550
  619
  693
  770
  851
  936
  1,025
  1,118
  1,215
  1,315
  1,420
  1,528
  1,641
  1,759
  1,880
  2,007
  2,139
  2,276
  2,419
  2,568
  2,722
  2,884
  3,052
  3,227
  3,410
  3,602
  3,801
  4,010
  4,229
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.561
  0.562
  0.562
  0.561
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
  0.562
Average production assets, $m
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  44
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
Total debt, $m
  67
  84
  103
  124
  145
  167
  190
  215
  240
  267
  294
  323
  353
  383
  416
  449
  484
  520
  557
  597
  637
  680
  724
  770
  818
  868
  921
  975
  1,033
  1,092
Total liabilities, $m
  133
  151
  170
  190
  211
  233
  257
  281
  306
  333
  360
  389
  419
  450
  482
  515
  550
  586
  624
  663
  704
  746
  790
  836
  884
  934
  987
  1,042
  1,099
  1,159
Total equity, $m
  352
  399
  450
  503
  559
  618
  680
  744
  812
  882
  955
  1,031
  1,110
  1,191
  1,277
  1,365
  1,457
  1,553
  1,653
  1,756
  1,864
  1,976
  2,094
  2,216
  2,343
  2,476
  2,615
  2,760
  2,911
  3,070
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  485
  550
  620
  693
  770
  851
  937
  1,025
  1,118
  1,215
  1,315
  1,420
  1,529
  1,641
  1,759
  1,880
  2,007
  2,139
  2,277
  2,419
  2,568
  2,722
  2,884
  3,052
  3,227
  3,410
  3,602
  3,802
  4,010
  4,229
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726
  0.726

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  113
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -159
  -166
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  87
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  83
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  83.7
  70.8
  60.4
  52.0
  45.0
  39.3
  34.5
  30.5
  27.0
  24.1
  21.6
  19.4
  17.5
  15.8
  14.4
  13.1
  11.9
  10.9
  9.9
  9.1
  8.4
  7.7
  7.1
  6.5
  6.0
  5.5
  5.1
  4.7
  4.3
  4.0

Phoenix New Media Limited is a media company providing content on an integrated platform across Internet, mobile and television channels in China. The Company enables consumers to access professional news and other information, and upload text and images (UGC) on the Internet and through their mobile devices. It also transmits its UGC and in-house produced content to television viewers primarily through Phoenix TV. In addition to professionally produced content, content from Phoenix TV and its in-house produced content, the Company allows its users to UGC to its Websites and mobile applications. It operates in two segments: net advertising services and paid services. It provides its content and services through channels, including ifeng.com channel, video channel and mobile channel, and also transmits its content to television viewers, primarily through Phoenix TV. Together, these channels form a single converged platform providing integrated text, image and video content.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR (FENG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 146.4
Price to Sales 8.4
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 60.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 70.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 16.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 4.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.2%
EBITDA Margin 9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 2.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

FENG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the FENG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $238.073155985 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our FENG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for FENG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of FENG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for FENG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the FENG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for FENG are equal to 4.5%.

Life of production assets of 2.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for FENG is equal to -2.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $378.045798065 million for Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.568 million for Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Phoenix New Media Cl A ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Phoenix New Media: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-12-18 05:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Phoenix New Media: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-14-18 05:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Phoenix New Media: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-14-18 05:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Phoenix New Media Filed 2017 Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-26-18 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces Yidian's Financing Update   [Apr-03-18 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Phoenix New Media posts 4Q profit   [Mar-12-18 05:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ FAANG and FENG in Fine Form, and One Has a Nice Setup   [Jan-11-18 11:07AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Why Did Phoenix New Media Ltd. ADR Jump on Tuesday?   [Nov-21-17 04:59PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Phoenix New Media posts 3Q profit   [06:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Stocks To Have On Your Watch-list For Thursday   [Aug-17-17 09:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Phoenix New Media posts 2Q profit   [Aug-15-17 10:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces Extension of Loans to Yidian   [Aug-09-17 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces Receipt of SAPPRFT Notice   [Jun-23-17 08:10AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Weibo Corp (ADR) (WB) Stock Is Down, But Not Out   [Jun-22-17 01:49PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ [$$] China Bans Political Content From Three More Platforms   [09:24AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Phoenix New Media reports 1Q loss   [05:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ Phoenix New Media Filed 2016 Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-28-17 07:33AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Phoenix New Media posts 4Q profit   [05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces Extension of Loans to Yidian   [Jan-20-17 06:15AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Phoenix New Media Ltd ADR (FENG)   [Dec-12-16 04:26PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces New Loans to Yidian   [Nov-02-16 04:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Phoenix New Media Announces New Loan to Yidian   [Aug-10-16 05:00PM  PR Newswire]

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